1: Intro to Technical Analysis
http://youtu.be/4lc8788xU7Y
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1: Intro to Technical Analysis
http://youtu.be/4lc8788xU7Y
2. Dow Theory - An Introduction
An overview of the first three tenets of Dow Theory. The second in a series on technical analysis for active traders of the stock, futures and forex markets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWRv9l6wrr8&feature=share&list=PL33D0C18CD EBF64B7
3. Second 3 Tenets of Dow Theory
The third lesson in a series on technical analysis for forex, futures, and stock traders which introduces the last 3 tenets of down theory
http://youtu.be/biShqILFMl4
4. Day Trading Lesson: The Basics of Charts
The fourth lesson in a series on technical analysis for day traders of the forex, futures, and stock markets.
The tool of the day trader when analyzing the forex, futures, or stock markets is the price chart. Very simply a price chart is a chart showing the movement of the price of a financial instrument over a chosen time.
Most charts will allow a wide variety of time frames to be displayed and the time frame that day traders choose to use varies widely and depends on each traders trading style. In general, longer term traders will focus on daily time frames and above, and shorter term traders will focus on intraday charts such as hourly or 15 minute charts. Many traders will also use a combination of time frames in order to get a full picture of what price has been doing by, for instance, looking first at a longer term daily chart, then moving to an hourly chart, and then finally to a 15 minute chart.
http://youtu.be/b3NRuzQvuxA
5. Day Trading Lesson : Support and Resistance
The fifth lesson in a series on technical analysis for active traders of the forex, futures, and stock markets.
Just as anything where market forces are at play, the price of a financial instrument in the stock, futures or forex markets is ultimately determined by supply and demand. Very simply, if demand is increasing in relation to supply then price will rise, and if demand is decreasing in relation to supply then price will fall.
As we have learned in previous lessons, what you are basically looking at when you see an uptrend on a chart is an extended period of time where demand has continued to increase in relation to supply. Similarly when looking at a downtrend you are seeing an extended period of time where demand has decreased in relation to supply for an extended period of time, causing price to fall. Similarly, in a downtrend, demand is continuously falling in relation to supply which causes the price of an instrument in the stock, futures or forex market to fall.
In this lesson we are going to look at something known as support and resistance which are price levels where the supply demand equation is expected to change, and price is then expected to stop moving in the direction it was moving previously, or reverse direction.
http://youtu.be/ikh2xbbHvqY
6. Multi Time Frame Analysis
The sixth lesson in a series on technical analysis for active traders of the forex market, futures market, and stock market.
We should now have a good understanding of how to spot trends in the forex market, stock market, and futures market. Now lets tie everything together we have learned thus far with the final concept of this series, Multi Time frame analysis.
No matter what time frame you end up using as a trader or what time frame a particular strategy calls for, it is important always to have a big picture overview of what is happening in the market. Although there are exceptions, in general most traders will tell you that if your trade setup or analysis lines up on multiple time frames, then the odds of being correct are greatly increased.
http://youtu.be/s3DWyLHZa-Y
7. Introduction to the Double Top and Double Bottom Charting Pattern
The first lesson in a series on chart patterns for traders and investors in the stock market, futures market, and forex market.
http://youtu.be/v9_1q1Jeiuw
8. How to Trade Double Tops Like a Pro
The next lesson in a series on charting patterns for traders and investors in which goes into specific strategies which can be used to trade double tops and double bottoms in the forex market, stock market, and futures market.
http://youtu.be/xbPQAA0yyf8
9. How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern Part 1
The 3rd lesson in a series on charting patterns which looks at the head and shoulders pattern and how traders use this in the stock market, forex market, and futures market.
http://youtu.be/1ByzZ6b4ET8
10. How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern Part 2
The 4th lesson in a series on charting patterns which looks at how to trade the head and shoulders pattern and the reverse had and shoulders pattern for daytraders in the stock market, futures market, and forex market.
http://youtu.be/A49xzKYGyg4
11. How to Trade the Wedge Chart Pattern Like a Pro Part 1
The 5th lesson in a series on charting patterns which goes over the rising and falling wedge patterns for traders of the forex market, stock market, and futures market.
http://youtu.be/_0-SJNnnHFM
12. How to Trade the Wedge Chart Pattern Like a Pro Part 2
The next lesson in a series on technical analysis and chart patterns which looks at strategies for trading the rising and falling wedge patterns in the stock market, futures market, and forex market.
http://youtu.be/h8BP24tDJhA
13. How to Trade the Flag/Pennant Patterns Like a Pro Part 1
In this lesson we learn about what flag and pennant patterns are in technical analysis and how to identify them on charts in the stock market, futures market, and forex market for day traders and investors
http://youtu.be/SqCFhhou3SM
14. How to Trade the Flag/Pennant Patterns Like a Pro Part 2
The second lesson in a two part series on trading strategies for trading the flag and pennant chart patterns using technical analysis for day traders and investors in the stock market, futures market, and foreign exchange market.
http://youtu.be/TzqDzQwPJnE
15. How to Trade Triangle Chart Patterns Like a Pro Part 1
The first lesson in a two part series on how to identify and trade the ascending, descending, and symmetrical triangle chart patterns using technical analysis in the futures market, forex market and stock market for day traders and investors.
http://youtu.be/hyELHtxTp7I
16. How to Trade Triangle Chart Patterns Like a Pro Part 2
The second lesson on how to identify and trade triangle chart patterns in the stock market, forex market, and futures market using technical analysis.
http://youtu.be/4bIiQyfqW2U
17. Learn to Trade with Technical Indicators
The first lesson in a new series on technical indicators which gives an introduction to the concept so that we can move on to learning about specific indicators and how to use them to trade profitably in the forex market, stock market, and futures market.
http://youtu.be/FWE-1yAaaLs
18. How to Trade Moving Averages Like a Pro Part 1
The basics of trading with moving averages in two lessons for active day traders and investors in the stock market, futures market, and forex markets.
http://youtu.be/gw-1AhbYP8Q
19. How toTrade Moving Averages Like a Pro Part 2
In this lesson we looked at the two main types of moving averages, the simple moving average and the exponential moving average. In this lesson we are going to look at some of the ways that traders use moving averages to pick their entry and exit points in the currency, commodities, and equities market.
As moving averages are lagging indicators they tend to work well in identifying and following a trend and not to work well in ranging or trend less markets. Because of this traders will often use them to trade with the trend as well as to identify potential areas of support or resistance which may result in a continuation or reversal of a trend.
http://youtu.be/25WiPIndXtA
20. How to Trade the MACD Indicator Like a Pro Part 1
This lesson on how to trade the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in the stock, futures, and forex markets.
The indicator, which was developed by Gerald Appel, is constructed by taking a 12 period exponential moving average of a financial instrument and subtracting its 26 period exponential moving average. The resulting line is then plotted below the price chart and fluctuates above and below a center line which is placed at value zero. A 9 period EMA of the MACD line is normally plotted along with the MACD line and used as a signal of potential trading opportunities in the stock, futures and forex markets.
When the MACD line is above zero this tells the trader that the 12 period exponential moving average is trading above the 26 period exponential moving averages. When the MACD line is below zero this tells the trader that the 12 period exponential moving average is below the 26 period exponential moving average. Traders will watch the MACD line as when it is above zero and rising this is a sign that the positive gap between the 12 and 26 EMA's is widening, a sign of increasing bullish momentum in the financial instrument they are analyzing. Conversely when the MACD line is below zero and falling this represents a widening in the negative gap between the 12 and 26 day EMA's, a sign of increasing bearish momentum in the financial instrument they are analyzing.
The purpose of the 9 period exponential moving average line is to further confirm bullish changes in momentum when the MACD crosses above this line and bearish changes in momentum when the MACD crosses below this line.
http://youtu.be/k9nds4OpA2I
21. MACD Indicator: Trade it Like a Pro (Part 2)
The second lesson of two on how to trade the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) for day traders and investors using technical analysis in the stock market, futures market, and forex market.
In addition to being able to tell if the stock, futures contract, or currency you are analyzing is trending or not from simply looking at its price action on the chart, you can also use the MACD indicator. Very simply if the MACD line is at or close to the zero line, this indicates that the financial instrument you are analyzing is not exhibiting strong trending characteristics, and thus should not be traded using the MACD.
Example of Trending and Non Trending Markets
Once it is determined that the financial instrument you are analyzing is exhibiting trending characteristics, there are three ways that you can trade the MACD.
1. Positive and Negative Divergence
2. The MACD/Signal Line Crossover
3. The zero line crossover
Trading the MACD Divergence:
Divergence occurs when the direction of the MACD is not moving in the same direction of the financial instrument you are analyzing. This can be seen as an indication that the upward or downward momentum in the market is failing. Traders will thus look to trade the reversal of the trend and consider this signal particularly strong when the market is making a new high or low and the MACD is not.
http://youtu.be/XCcg7a1XR2E
22. How to Trade the Relative Strength Index (RSI) Like a Pro
A lesson on how to trade the RSI for traders and investors using technical analysis in the stock market, futures market and forex market.
In our last lesson we looked at 3 different ways that the MACD indicator can be traded. In today's lesson we are going to look at a class of indicators which are known as Oscillators with a look at how to trade one of the more popular Oscillators the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
An oscillator is a leading technical indicator which fluctuates above and below a center line and normally has upper and lower bands which indicate overbought and oversold conditions in the market (an exception to this would be the MACD which is an Oscillator as well). One of the most popular Oscillators outside of the MACD which we have already gone over is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which is where we will start our discussion.
The RSI is best described as an indicator which represents the momentum in a particular financial instrument as well as when it is reaching extreme levels to the upside (referred to as overbought) or downside (referred to as oversold) and is therefore due for a reversal. The indicator accomplishes this through a formula which compares the size of recent gains for a particular financial instrument to the size of recent losses, the results of which are plotted as a line which fluctuates between 0 and 100. Bands are then placed at 70 which is considered an extreme level to the upside, and 30 which is considered an extreme level to the downside.
Example of the RSI :
The first and most popular way that traders use the RSI is to identify and potentially trade overbought and oversold areas in the market. Because of the way the RSI is constructed a reading of 100 would indicate zero losses in the dataset that you are analyzing, and a reading of zero would indicate zero gains, both of which would be a very rare occurrence. As such James Wilder who developed the indicator chose the levels of 70 to identify overbought conditions and 30 to identify oversold conditions. When the RSI line trades above the 70 line this is seen by traders as a sign the market is becoming overextended to the upside. Conversely when the market trades below the 30 line this is seen by traders as a sign that the market is becoming over extended to the downside. As such traders will look for opportunities to go long when the RSI is below 30 and opportunities to go short when it is above 70. As with all indicators however this is best done when other parts of a trader's analysis line up with the indicator.
Example of RSI Showing Overbought and Oversold :
A second way that traders look to use the RSI is to look for divergences between the RSI and the financial instrument that they are analyzing, particularly when these divergences occur after overbought or oversold conditions in the market. These divergences can act as a sign that a move is loosing momentum and often occur before reversals in the market. As such traders will watch for divergences as a potential opportunity to trade a reversal in the stock, futures or forex markets or to enter in the direction of a trend on a pullback.
Example of RSI Divergence :
The third way that traders look to use the RSI is to identify bullish and bearish changes in the market by watching the RSI line for when it crosses above or below the center line. Although traders will not normally look to trade the crossover it can be used as confirmation for trades based on other methods.
http://youtu.be/sYPK2mFewS8
23. How to Trade Stochastics Like the Pro's Do
A lesson on how to trade the stochastic oscillator for active day traders and investors using technical analysis in the stock market, forex market. and futures market.
In our last lesson we learned about the RSI indicator and some of the different ways traders of the stock, futures, and forex markets use this in their trading. In today's lesson we are going to look at another momentum oscillator which is similar to the RSI and is called the Stochastic.
Let me start by saying that there are 3 different types of stochastic oscillators: the fast, slow, and full stochastic. All of them operate in a similar manner however when most traders refer to trading using the stochastic indicator they are referring to the slow stochastic which is going to be the focus of this lesson.
The basic premise of the stochastic is that prices tend to close in the upper end of their trading range when the financial instrument you are analyzing is in an uptrend and in the lower end of their trading range when the financial instrument that you are analyzing is in a downtrend. When prices close in the upper end of their range in an uptrend this is a sign that the momentum of the trend is strong and vice versa for a downtrend.
The Stochastic Oscillator contains two lines which are plotted below the price chart and are known as the %K and %D lines. Like the RSI, the Stochastic is a banded oscillator so the %K and %D lines fluctuate between zero and 100, and has lines plotted at 20 and 80 which represent the high and low ends of the range.
http://youtu.be/vjQ9pS_ILvk
24. The Difference Between the Fast, Slow and Full Stochastic
Answer to a question on what is the difference between the fast stochastic, slow stochastic and full stochastic
http://youtu.be/fJD5me0XB9c
25. How to Trade Bollinger Bands - Stocks, Futures, Forex
A Lesson on Bollinger Bands for active traders and investors using technical analysis in the forex, futures, and stock markets.
In our last lesson we learned about the Stochastic Oscillator and how traders use this in their trading. In today's lesson we are going to learn about an indicator which helps traders gauge the volatility and how current prices compare to past prices.
Bollinger Bands are comprised of three bands which are referred to as the upper band, the lower band, and the center band. The middle band is a simple moving average which is normally set at 20 periods, and the upper band and lower band represent chart points that are two standard deviations away from that moving average.
Example of Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger bands are designed to give traders a feel for what the volatility is in the market and how high or low prices are relative to the recent past. The basic premise of Bollinger bands is that price should normally fall within two standard deviations (represented by the upper and lower band) of the mean which is the center line moving average. If you are unfamiliar with what a standard deviation is you can read about it here. As this is the case trend reversals often occur near the upper and lower bands. As the center line is a moving average which represents the trend in the market, it will also frequently act as support or resistance. The first way that traders use the indicator is to identify potential overbought and oversold places in the market. Although some traders will take a close outside the upper or lower bands as buy and sell signals, John Bollinger who developed the indicator recommends that this method should only be traded with the confirmation of other indicators. Outside of the fact that most traders would recommend confirming signals with more than one method, with Bollinger bands prices which stay outside or remain close to the upper or lower band can indicate a strong trend, a situation that you do not want to be trading reversals in. For this reason selling at the upper band and buying at the lower is a technique that is best served in range bound markets.
http://youtu.be/XmE809RjzTQ
26. How to Trade the Average Directional Index (ADX)
A lesson on how to trade the ADX for traders of the stock, futures, and forex markets.
In this lesson we are going to learn about the Average directional Index (ADX), an indicator which helps traders determine when the market is trending, when the market is ranging, when the market may be about to change from trending to ranging or vice versa, and to gauge the strength of the trend in the market.
You do need to know that:
• The ADX line is composed of two other indicators which are known as the Positive Directional Index (+DI Line) and the Negative Directional Index (-DI Line).
• The +DI Line is representative of how strong or weak the uptrend in the market is.
• The --DI line is representative of how strong or weak the downtrend in the market is.
• As the ADX line is comprised of both the +DI Line and the --DI Line, it does not indicate whether the trend is up or down, but simply the strength of the overall trend in the market.
As the ADX Line is Non Directional, it does not tell you whether the market is in an uptrend or a downtrend (you must look to price or the +DI/-DI Lines for this) but simply how strong or weak the trend in the financial instrument you are analyzing is. When the ADX line is above 40 and rising this is indicative of a strong trend, and when the ADX line is below 20 and falling this is indicative of a ranging market.
So one of the first ways traders will use the ADX in their trading is as a confirmation of whether or not a financial instrument is trending, and to avoid choppy periods in the market where many find it harder to make money. In addition to a situation where the ADX line trending below 20, the developer of the indicator recommends not trading a trend based strategy when the ADX line is below both the +DI Line and the -DI Line.
http://youtu.be/Csq7gDnbapI
27. How to Trade the Parabolic SAR
A lesson on how to trade the Parabolic Stop and Reversal (SAR) indicator for traders of the forex, futures, and stock markets.
In our last lesson we learned about the Average Directional Index (ADX) an indicator which helps traders determine the strength of trends in the market. In today's lesson we are going to look at another indicator called the Parabolic Stop and Reversal (Parabolic SAR), which helps traders enter and manage positions when trading those trends.
The Parabolic SAR is an indicator that, like Bollinger bands is plotted on price, the general idea of which is to buy into up trends when the indicator is below price, and sell into downtrends when the indicator is above price. Once traders are in positions the indicator also assists in managing the position by providing guidance as to how one should trail their stop.
http://youtu.be/ogT22oqgjnQ
28. How to Trade Candlestick Chart Formations Part 1
The first lesson in a series on how to trade candlestick chart patterns for traders of the futures, forex, and stock markets.
http://youtu.be/LOopfM4hhpA
29. How to Trade Spinning Tops and Doji Candlestick Patterns
In our last lesson we learned how different candlestick formations can tell us different things about whether the buyers or the sellers won out in a particular time period. In today's lesson we are going to look at some of the basic candlestick patterns and what they mean when looked at in the context of recent price action in the market.
The Spinning Top
When a candlestick with a short body in the middle of two long wicks forms in the market this is indicative of a situation where neither the buyers nor the sellers have won for that time period as the market has closed relatively unchanged from where it opened. The upper and lower long wicks however tell us that both the buyers and the sellers had the upper hand at some point during the time period the candle represents. When you see this type of candlestick form after a runup or run down in the market it can be an indication of a pending reversal as the indescision in the market is representative of the buyers loosing momentum when this occurs after an uptrend and the sellers loosing momentum after a downtrend.
The Doji
Like the Spinning Top the Doji Represents indecision in the market but is normally considered a stronger signal because unlike the spinning top the open and the close that form the Doji Candle are at the same level. If a Doji forms in sideways market action this is not significant as the sideways market action is already indicative of indecision in the market. If the Doji forms in an uptrend or downtrend this is normally seen as significant as this is a signal that the buyers are loosing conviction when formed in an uptrend and a signal that sellers are loosing conviction if seen in a downtrend. Most traders will place greater significance on the Doji when it forms in a market that is in overbought or oversold territory.
The Bullish Engulfing Pattern
The Bullish Engulfing pattern is another candlestick formation which represents a potential reversal in the market when seen in a downtrend. The pattern is made up of a white and black candle where the latest candle (the white candle) opens lower than the previous candle's (the black candle) close and closes higher than the previous candle's open. When this happens the current period's white candle completely engulfs the previous period's black candle.
When thinking about this from a buyer/seller perspective, you can understand that the long body of the current candle engulfing completely the body of the previous candle to the upside is representative that the buyers have not only taken control but have taken control with force. When this white engulfing candle occurs after a small black candle the formation is given even more significance as the small black candle is already indicative of a trend that is running low on steam.
http://youtu.be/tgE5Dow-BMg
30. How to Trade the Bullish/Bearish Engulfing Candlesticks
A lesson on how to trade the Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Chart Patterns for active traders and investors using technical analysis in the stock, futures, and forex markets.
http://youtu.be/fnx_k4Gcxyk
31. How to Trade the Hammer Hanging Man Candlesticks
A lesson on how to trade the Hammer and Hanging Man Candlestick Chart Patterns for active traders and investors in the forex, futures, and stock markets.
Like the Spinning Top and Doji which we have studied in previous lessons, the Hammer candlestick pattern is made up of one candle. The candle looks like a hammer as it has a long lower wick and a short body at the top of the candlestick with little or no upper wick. In order for a candle to be a valid hammer most traders say the lower wick must be two times greater than the size of the body potion of the candle, and the body of the candle must be at the upper end of the trading range.
When you see the Hammer form in a downtrend this is a sign of a potential reversal in the market as the long lower wick represents a period of trading where the sellers were initially in control but the buyers were able to reverse that control and drive prices back up to close near the high for the day, thus the short body at the top of the candle.
After seeing this pattern form in the market most traders will wait for the next period to open higher than the close of the previous period to confirm that the buyers are actually in control.
The Hanging Man is basically the same thing as Hammer formation but instead of being found in a downtrend it is found in an uptrend. Like the Hammer pattern, the Hanging man has a small body near the top of the trading range, little or no upper wick, and a lower wick that is at least two times as big as the body of the candle.
Unlike the Hammer however the selling pressure that forms the lower wick in the Hanging Man is seen as a potential sign of more selling pressure to come, even though the candle closed in the upper end of its range. While the lower wick of the Hammer represents selling pressure as well, this is to be expected in a downtrend. When seen in an uptrend however selling pressure is a warning sign of potential more selling pressure to come and thus the categorization of the Hanging Man as a bearish reversal pattern.
As with the Hammer and as with most one candle patterns most traders will wait for confirmation that selling pressure has in fact taken hold by watching for a lower open on the next candle. Traders will also place additional significance on the pattern when there is an increase in volume during the period the Hanging Man forms as well as when there is a longer wick.
http://youtu.be/iNG3Xrar24k
32. How to Trade the Morning/Evening Star Candlestick Pattern
A lesson on how to trade the morning and evening star candlestick chart patterns for active traders and investors using technical analysis in the stock, futures, and forex markets.
In our last lesson we looked at the Hammer and Hanging Man Candlestick Chart Patterns. In today's lesson we are going to look at two more reversal candlestick patterns which are known as the Morning and Evening Star.
The Morning Star
The Morning Start Candlestick Pattern is made up of 3 candles normally a long black candle, followed by a short white or black candle, which is then followed by a long white candle. In order to have a valid Morning Start formation most traders will look for a close of the third candle that is at least half way up the body of the first candle in the pattern. When found in a downtrend, this pattern can be a powerful reversal pattern.
What this represents from a supply demand situation is a lot of selling into the downtrend in the period which forms the first black candle, then a period of lower trading but with a reduced range which forms the second period and then a period of trading indicating that indecision in the market, which is then followed by a large up candle representing buyers taking control of the market.
Unlike the Hammer and Hanging Man which we learned about in our last lesson, as the Morning Star is a 3 candle pattern traders often times will not wait for confirmation from the 4th candle before entering the trade. Like those patterns however traders will look to volume on the third day for confirmation. In addition traders will look to the size of the size of the candles for indication on how big the reversal potential is. The larger the white and black candle and the further that the white candle moves up into the black candle the larger the reversal potential.
The Evening Star
The Evening Star Candlestick Pattern is a mirror image of the Morning Star, and is a reversal pattern when seen as part of an uptrend. The pattern is made up of three candles the first being a long white candle representing buyers driving the prices up, then a short white or black second candle representing indecision in the market, which is followed by a third black candle down which represents sellers taking control of the market.
The close of the third candle needs to be at least half way down the body of the first candle and as with the Morning Star most traders will not wait for confirmation from the 4th period's candle to consider the pattern valid. Traders will look for increased volume on the third period's candle for confirmation, the larger the black and white candles are and the further the black candle moves down the body of the white candle the more powerful the reversal is expected to be.
http://youtu.be/jxgOmPwxYaI
33. How to Trade the Inverted Hammer/Shooting Star Patterns
A lesson on how to trade the Inverted Hammer and Shooting Star Candlestick Chart Patterns for active traders and investors using technical analysis in the stock, futures, and forex markets.
In our last lesson we learned about the Morning and Evening Star Candlestick Patterns. In today's lesson we are going to wrap up our series on candlestick patterns with a look at the Inverted Hammer and the Shooting Star candlestick patterns.
The Inverted Hammer
As its name implies, the inverted Hammer looks like an upside down version of the Hammer pattern which we learned about several lessons ago. Like the Hammer Pattern, the Inverted Hammer is comprised of one candle and when found in a downtrend is considered a potential reversal pattern.
The pattern is made up of a candle with a small lower body and a long upper wick which is at least two times as large as the short lower body. The body of the candle should be at the low end of the trading range and there should be little or no lower wick in the candle.
What the pattern is basically telling us is that although sellers ended up driving price down to close near to where it opened, buyers had significant control of the market at some point during the period which formed the long upper wick. This buying pressure during the downtrend calls the trend into question which is why the candle is considered a potential reversal pattern. Like the other one candle patterns we have learned about however, most traders will wait for a higher open on the next trading period before taking any action based on the pattern.
Most traders will also look at a longer wick as a sign of a greater potential reversal and like to see an increase in volume on the day the Inverted Hammer Forms. \
The Shooting Star
The Shooting Star looks exactly the same as the Inverted Hammer, but instead of being found in a downtrend it is found in an uptrend and thus has different implications. Like the Inverted Hammer it is made up of a candle with a small lower body, little or no lower wick, and a long upper wick that is at least two times the size of the lower body.
The long upper wick of the pattern indicates that the buyers drove prices up at some point during the period in which the candle was formed but encountered selling pressure which drove prices back down for the period to close near to where they opened. As this occurred in an uptrend the selling pressure is seen as a potential reversal sign. When encountering this pattern traders will look for a lower open on the next period before considering the pattern valid.
As with the Inverted Hammer most traders will see a longer wick as a sign of a greater potential reversal and like to see an increase in volume on the day the Shooting Star forms.
http://youtu.be/sS8a6U94HIw
34. Why Most Traders Lose Money and The Solution
A lesson on the importance of money management in trading and how most traders of the stock, futures, and forex markets ignore money management because they do not consider it important and therefore loose money trading.
Why the Majority of Traders Fail
In our last lesson we finished up our series on Candlestick Chart Patterns with a look at the Inverted Hammer and the Shooting Star Candlestick Chart Patterns. In today's lesson we are going to start a new series on money management, the most important concept in trading and the reason why most traders fail.
Over the last several years working in financial services I have watched hundreds if not thousands of traders trade, and over and over again I see smart people who have been intelligent enough to accumulate large sums of money in their non trading careers open a trading account and loose huge sums of money making what you would think are easily avoidable mistakes that one would think even the dumbest traders would avoid.
Those same traders are the ones that consider themselves too good or smart to make the same mistakes that so many others make, and that will skip over this section to get to what they feel is the "real meat" of trading, strategies for picking entry points. What these traders and so many others fail to realize is that what separates the winners from the losers in trading is not how good someone is at picking their entry points, but how well they factor in what they are going to do after they are in a trade into their trade entries and how well they stick to their trade management plan once they are in the trade.
For the few who do get that money management is far and away the most important aspect of trading, the large majority of these people don't understand the large role that psychology plays in money management or consider themselves above having to work on channeling their emotions correctly when trading.
http://youtu.be/g546vfbBieY
35. Why Traders Hold On to Losing Positions
A lesson on how the ability and willingness to take losses when trading the forex, futures, or stock markets is one of the key factors that differentiates successful traders from unsuccessful ones.
Trading Success Means Comfort with Being Wrong
In our last lesson we introduced the concept that money management and the psychology of money management as the most overlooked but most important component of trading success. In today's lesson we will begin to look at one of the most important components of the psychology of money management: a willingness to be wrong.
Humans in general grow up being taught by their environment of the importance of always being right. Those who are right are envied as the winners in society and those who are wrong are cast aside as losers. A fear of being wrong and the need to always be right will hold you back in general, but will be deadly in your trading.
With this in mind lets say that you have been watching my videos and feel that I am an intelligent trader, so you want me to give you a method to trade. I say fine and give you a method and tell you that the method will trade 100 times a year with an average profit of 100 points for winning trades and an average loss of 20 points for loosing trades. You say great and take the system home to give it a try.
A few days later the first trade comes and quickly hits its profit target of 80 points. Great you say and call a bunch of your friends to tell them about the great system you've found. Then a few days later the next trade comes but quickly takes a loss. You hold tight however and then the next trade comes, and the next trade etc until the trade has hit 5 losers in a row and amounting to 100 points in loses on the losers so you are now down 20 points overall, and all your trader buddy's who started following the system after the first trade are now down 100 points.
http://youtu.be/sX11G4erDA4
36. Two Trading Mistakes Which Will Destroy Your Account
A lesson on two of the most common mistakes that traders make when trading the stock, futures and forex markets.
One of the most common mistakes is sticking in a trade where you know you are right in your analysis, but the market continues to move against you. As the famous economist John Maynard Keynes once said:
"The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
Perhaps one of the best examples of this are those who shorted the NASDAQ into the runup in 1999 and early 2000. At the time it was pretty obvious that from a value standpoint NASDAQ stocks were way overvalued and that people's expectations for growth that they were buying on were way out of line with reality. There were many great traders at the time who recognized this and began shorting the NASDAQ starting in late 99. As you can see from the below chart and the huge sell off that ensued after the peak in 2000, these traders were right in their analysis. Unfortunately for many of them however stocks continued to run up dramatically from already overvalued points in late 99 wiping out many of these traders who would eventually be proved correct.
So as we learned about in last lesson, people's strong desire to be right will often times keep them in trades that they should have moved on from even though the market may eventually prove them correct.
For those traders who are able to initially move on from trades where they feel they are correct but the market moves against them, another common theme which arises is for a trader to initially stick to his plan, but after being proved correct and missing out on gains he becomes frustrated and deviates from his plan so that he will not miss out on another profitable opportunity.
One place of many where I have seen this time and time again is when watching traders who trade reversals at support or resistance levels. Many times when the market touches a support or resistance level it will have a brief spike upwards or downwards which hits the stops of a trader looking to profit from the reversal, taking him out of the market just as it turns in his favor. Because many traders think a like, often times the level at which the trader is taken out of the market is right at his stop level as well.
After this happens once or twice to a trader he will then stop placing hard stops in the market and instead convince himself that he will manage the trade if it moves against him. This may work a few times for the trader giving him more confidence in the strategy until the market does finally break. As we have learned about in previous lessons often times when the market breaks significant support or resistance levels it will break violently to the point where the trader in the above situation is quickly down a large amount on his trade. Typically what will happen at this point is instead of taking the big loss, learning his lesson, and moving on the trader will remain in the position or worse add to it with the hopes that the market will turn back in his favor. If the trader gets lucky and the market does turn back in his favor this only goes to support this bad habit which will eventually knock him out of the market.
Successful traders realize that situations such as the above occur constantly in the market and that one of the main things that separates successful traders from unsuccessful ones is their ability to accept this, stick to their strategy, accept that loosing trades are a part of trading, and move onto the next trade when the market does not move in their favor.
http://youtu.be/6GBO7-7M5eQ
37. Herd Mentality is the Psychology That Leads to Big Trading Losses
A lesson on crowd psychology and how it relates to trading the stock, futures, and forex markets.
The best summary that I have seen on this subject, as well as a great book on trading in general is Dr. Alexander Elder's book Trading for a living. As the Trader and Psychologist points out in his book, people think differently when acting as part of a crowd than they do when acting alone. Dr Elder points out that "People change when they join crowds. They become more credulous, impulsive, anxiously search for a leader, and react to emotions instead of using their intellect."
In his book Dr. Elder gives several examples of academic studies which have been done which show that people have trouble doing simple tasks such as choosing which line is longer than the other when put in a situation with other people who were instructed to give the wrong answer.
Perhaps no where is the strange effect is the psychology of crowds seen than in the financial markets. One of the more recent examples as I have spoken about in my other lessons of the effect that the psychology of crowds can have on the markets is the run-up of the NASDAQ into 2000. As you will find by pulling out the history books however, this is not an isolated incident as financial history is littered with similar price bubbles created and then destroyed in the same way as the NASDAQ bubble was.
So why does history continue to repeat itself? As Dr. Elder points out in his book, from a primitive standpoint chances of survival are often much higher as part of a group than they are alone. Similarly war's are often one by militaries with the strongest leaders. It is thus only natural to think that human's desire to survive would breed a desire to be part of a group with a strong leader into the human psyche.
So how does this relate to trading? Well as we learned in our lessons on Dow Theory, the price is representative of the crowd and the trend is representative of the leader of that crowd. With this in mind think about how difficult it would have been to short the NASDAQ at the high's in 2000, just at the height of the frenzy when everyone else was buying. In hindsight you would have ended up with a very profitable trade but, had the trade not worked out, people would have asked how could you have been so dumb to sell when everyone else knew the market was going up?
Now think about all the people who held on to their positions and lost tons of money after the bubble burst in 2000. As they had lots of company there were probably not a whole lot of people who were laughing at them. Yes they were wrong but how could they have known when so many others were wrong too?
By looking at this same example, you can also see how panic selling often ensues after sharp trends in the market as this is representative to a crowd whose leader has abandoned them.
In order to trade successfully people need a trading plan which is designed before entering a trade and becoming part of the crowd so they can fall back on their plan when the emotions which are associated with being part of a crowd inevitably arise. Successful traders must also realize that there is a time to run with the crowd and a time to leave the crowd, a decision which must be made by a well thought out trading plan designed before entering a trade.
http://youtu.be/odB26-M0jt0
38. Profit Expectations: What Millionaire Traders Know
A lesson on how most traders have unrealistic profit expectations which cause them to lose all their money and what realistic profit expectations are when trading the stock, futures or forex markets.
The first step in understanding and building a solid money management plan, the key component in successful trading, is setting realistic profit expectations. All too often I see people open trading accounts with balances of $10,000 or under expecting to make enough money to support themselves from their trading profits within a short period of time. After seeing all of the hype that is out there surrounding most trading education, trading signal services, etc it is no wonder that people think this is a reasonable goal, but that does not make it a realistic one.
As most any truly successful trader will tell you, the stock market has averaged somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% a year over the last 100 years. What this basically means is that if you would have invested in the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the index which is designed to represent the overall market, you would have earned about 10% on your money on average over the last 100 years. With this in mind, what most any truly successful trader will also tell you, is that if you can consistently double that return, on average, over the long term, then you will be considered among the best traders out there.
http://youtu.be/mJdwwOjf6LI
39. How to Join the Minority of Traders Who Are Successful
In our last lesson we looked at what one can reasonably expect to earn from their trading over the long term, and how one can avoid the common misconceptions of most traders which ultimately cause them to fail. In today's lesson we are going to look at the next step in developing a successful money management strategy which is how to manage your losses.
One of the main key's to successful trading is the preservation of capital. Beyond the obvious point here that if you loose your trading capital then you will be out of the game, is the fact that it takes much more to come back from a loss than it does to take the loss you are trying to come back from.
As an example here lets say you start with $10,000 and loose $5000 from a string of bad trades. That $5000 loss represents a 50% loss on your account which now has $5000 left in it. Now ask yourself this question. What percentage gain will you need to make on the $5000 left in your account in order just to be back to breakeven (the $10,000 level) on your account? If you have done the math correctly you will see that in order to make back the 50% loss you took on your account you will need to make a 100% return or basically be twice as successful in your comeback as you were unsuccessful in your drawdown.
It is this concept that is one of the most important to understand in trading, as it underscores the importance of protecting one's trading capital, as it shows the difficulty of coming back from a loss in relation to the ease of taking a loss. It is also most traders lack of understanding of this concept that causes them to take risks which are way to large and is a major contributor to the high failure rate among traders
http://youtu.be/7xne3OlhqTE
40. How To Determine Where to Put Your Initial Stop Loss Order
In our last lesson we looked at the difficulty of overcoming a loss in the market to further emphasize the importance of protecting your trading capital as a critical component of any successful trading strategy. In today's lesson we are going to start to look at the first and one of the best ways of protecting one's trading capital, setting your initial stop.
As we learned about in our lesson on the effects of trading losses, 50% or more of the trades made by many successful trading strategies are losers. These trading strategies and traders are successful not because they are highly accurate on a trade by trade basis, but because when they are wrong they cut their losses quickly and when they are right they let their profits run. While the trading strategy that you eventually end up trading for yourself may have a higher success rate than what I mention above, any strategy is going to have loosing trades, so the first key to staying in the game is to have a plan for managing those losses so they do not get out of control and wipe out your chances for success.
With this in mind, what most traders will start with when designing a plan for setting their initial stop loss is the amount they can afford to loose on a per trade basis without having a detrimental affect on their account. While this varies from trader to trader and from strategy to strategy, as Dr. Alexander Elder mentions in his book Trading for a Living, many studies have shown that strategies and traders who risk more than 2% of their overall trading capital on any one trade are rarely successful over the long term. From what I have seen most traders risk way more than this on an individual trade basis, another large contributor to the high failure rate among traders.
Traders who set their per trade risk level at 2% of their trading capital or less, not only put themselves in a situation where a fairly lengthy string of losses will not knock them out of the game, but also put themselves in a situation where any one trade is not going to make or break their account. This is important not only from a money management standpoint but also from a psychological standpoint in that they are not attached to any one trade and are therefore more likely to stick to their strategy.
In order to have a true understanding of what this number should be for a specific strategy you will need to know what the expected accuracy rate is for the strategy, something which will cover in later lessons. For now however it is sufficient to simply understand that you need to have a feel for how much you plan to risk on a per trade basis as a first step in designing a successful money management strategy, and that you should be very wary of any strategy which risks more than 2% of your trading capital on any one trade.
Now that we understand that determining how much to risk per trade is the first step in any successful money management strategy, we can move on to other methods of setting your initial stop which fit within the limit set by the amount a trader is willing to risk on a per trade basis.
http://youtu.be/xuJRHvlrPlY