US Dollar and GOLD Technical Analysis

US Dollar Technical Analysis

Talking Points:

• US Dollar Technical Strategy: Holding Long via Mirror Trader Basket **
• Support: 10439 (61.8% Fib exp.), 10475-84 (channel floor, 23.6% Fib ret.)
• Resistance: 10401 (76.4% Fib exp.), 10339 (100% Fib exp.)

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index began to recover as expected afterputting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Initial resistance lines up in the 10473-84 area, marked by the underside of a previously broken falling channel and the 23.6% Fib retracement. A break above the latter barrier targets the 38.2% Fib at 10536. Near-term support is at 10400, the April 10 low.


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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• Support: 10400 (Apr 10 low)
• Resistance: 10473-84 (channel floor, 23.6% Fib exp.), 10536 (38.2% Fib exp.)

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index began to recover as expected afterputting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Initial resistance lines up in the 10473-84 area, marked by the underside of a previously broken falling channel and the 23.6% Fib retracement. A break above the latter barrier targets the 38.2% Fib at 10536. Near-term support is at 10400, the April 10 low.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Daily

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-Bottom line, respect downside potential as long as price is below 10500. 10393 is possible support for a low IF a new low is registered. Above 10500 (daily close) would suggest that a tradable low is in place.
LEVELS: 10355 10393 10420 | 10460 10495 10518


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Daily

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-Bottom line, respect downside potential as long as price is below 10500. 10385/93 is possible support for a low IF a new low is registered. Above 10500 (daily close) would suggest that an important low has formed.
LEVELS: 10410 10440 10465 | 10485 10500 10519


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Daily

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-Bottom line, respect downside potential as long as price is below 10500. 10385/93 is possible support for a low IF a new low is registered. Above 10500 (daily close) would suggest that an important low has formed. Wave wise, a new low could complete 5 waves down from 10600.
LEVELS: 10393 10410 10440 | 10469 10500 10519


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Daily

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-Bottom line, respect downside potential as long as price is below 10500. 10385/93 is possible support for a low IF a new low is registered. Above 10500 (daily close) would suggest that an important low has formed. Wave wise, a new low could complete 5 waves down from 10600.

LEVELS: 10393 10410 10437 | 10469 10500 10519

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Talking Points:

• Support: 10375 (double bottom)
• Resistance: 10472 (channel top), 10495 (support-turned-resistance)

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index is attempting to carve out a double bottom at 10375. Near-term resistance is at 10472, marked by the top of a falling channel that has guided the greenback lower since the beginning of the year. A break above that on a daily closing basis initially targets support-turned-resistance at 10495.


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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Daily

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-USDOLLAR has dropped into (and held) 10385. This was estimated support from October 2013 although a more important zone is defined by the June 2012 high and October 2013 low at 10323/55. The top of the zone is also home to the line that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 lows and downward sloping channel support.
-Exceeding 10495 would suggest that an important low is in place.

LEVELS: 103131037010408 | 104451049510518

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Daily

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-USDOLLAR has dropped into (and held) 10385. This was estimated support from October 2013 although a more important zone is defined by the June 2012 high and October 2013 low at 10323/55. The top of the zone is also home to the line that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 lows and downward sloping channel support.
-Exceeding 10495 would suggest that an important low is in place. Near term, today’s doji warns of weakness in the coming days.

LEVELS: 104101042910445 | 104761049510518


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Talking Points:

• Support: 10375 (double bottom)
• Resistance: 10455 (channel top), 10495 (support-turned-resistance)

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index may be in the process of confirming a double bottom at 10375, the October 22 close. Confirmation of an upward reversal pattern requires a breach of resistance at 10455, marked by the top of a falling channel that has guided the benchmark currency downward since the beginning of the year. A daily close above this barrier initially targets horizontal support-turned-resistance at 10495.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• Support: 10474-95, 104434 (channel top)
• Resistance:10589-619

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index looks poised to continue higher having set a critical double bottom at 10375, the October 2013 floor. An upward trend change signaled by a break above resistance at the top of a falling channel set from January saw follow-through with a break of resistance in the 10474-95 area. The bulls now aim to challenge the 10589-619 region, with a move above that opening the door for an advance to year-to-date highs. Alternatively, a reversal back below 10474 eyes channel top support-turned-resistance at 10434.


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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com




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Talking Points:

• Support: 10474-95, 104414 (channel top)
• Resistance:10531 (May 28 high), 10589-619

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index recovered following a brief correction lower from two-month highs. Positioning has favored the upside after prices set a double bottom and broke the down trend from January. Near-term resistance is at 10531, the May 28 high. A move above that aims for the 10589-619 region. Support is in the 10474-95 area, with a reversal below that opening the door for a retest of the channel top at 10414.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• Support: 10430 (trend line), 10375 (double bottom)
• Resistance:10474-95, 10531 (May 28 high)

Dropping beneath resistance-turned-support in the 10474-95 area has opened the door for a test of a trend-defining rising trend line set from July 2011 (now at 10430). A break below this threshold on a daily closing basis exposes a double bottom at 10375. Alternatively, a turn above 10495 clears the way for another challenge of 10531, the May 28 high.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Range bound strategies have proven to be some of the best trading techniques for currency pairs like the USDCHF over the past few weeks, especially during the Asia session. DailyFX research has also found that trading during the Asia session using a range bound strategy on European currencies has been one of the most profitable approaches.

It is also important to note that volatility in the currency market is at multi-year lows, meaning that previously strong-moving pairs have materially slowed. To keep the odds shifted towards a favorable balance, traders may consider adjusting to these conditions by moving from breakout and trending strategies over to a consolidation or range-bound approach.

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For newer traders it can take countless hours to accurately judgeprevailing market conditions. Moreover, it also takes time to perform effective analytics, like deciding which indicator to use and how to identify the strongest levels of support and resistance. Fortunately, FXCM has designed applications to streamline this process.

These levels can be best utilized in a ranging market by buying at support and selling at resistance. To help establish when the best time to trade is, FXCM created the Trading Sessions application, which highlights Asia market hours (as seen in the grey areas on the chart below).

When trading around these levels, it is also important to note critical event risk. Major changes in monetary policy expectations can cause market volatility, pushing prices through technical barriers as asset valuations realign to policy expectations.

USDCHF, 1-hour chart

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The strategy works as follows:
On 6/11/14 USDCHF was trading just below the R1 resistance level at 0.9005 (top left of chart) during the Asia session. The pair continued to trade in a narrow range until 6/12/14 when price action met resistance at R1 again and then proceeded to move down to 0.8964, where support was found on 6/13/14 (as reference by the white dashed line). The move was roughly 40 pips.

From 6/13/14 to 6/16/14 the price shot up from support at 0.8964 on a near-90 degree trajectory back to R1 where it traded around for several hours leading into the Asia session on 6/16/14. That was another 40 pip move.
On 6/16/14 the USDCHF traded back down to 0.08964, where it held once again on 6/17/14. As the market continued to oscillate, it seemed reasonable to suspect another move up to 0.9005, which played out as advertised today.

The strategy of buying at support and selling at resistance would continue until prices break and hold above R1 or below 0.8964. If the market breaks below 0.8964, the next level of support would be set at 0.8945, or S1.

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Talking Points:

• Support: 10409, 10375, 10323
• Resistance:10474-95, 10531, 10589

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index continues to find itself in a precarious position as prices test multi-year trend support set from July 2011. This barrier (now at 10417) is reinforced by a falling channel bottom at 10409. A daily close below that would suggest a major reversal is in progress and initially expose double bottom support at 10375, followed by the June 2012 high at 10323.Resistance remains in the 10474-95 area, with a move above that clearing the way for another challenge of the May 28 high at 10531.


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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Daily

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-The USDOLLAR has broken long term trendline support and is just ticks from the October 2013 low at 10354. A drop below that level faces the 2012 high at 10323. Exceeding 10420 is needed in order to break the near term downtrend.


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Daily

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-The USDOLLAR has broken…and reclaimed...long term trendline support. The advance through 10420 is a great start to suggesting that the trendline was break was of the false variety. A weekly key reversal is in the works too (need to close above 10409).

LEVELS: 10,250; 10,323; 10,354 | 10,395; 10,420; 10,452

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Talking Points:

• Support: 10426, 10392, 10354-75
• Resistance:10442-56, 10513, 10560

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index is struggling to build upward having reversed higher as expected after producing a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern. Buyers are testing resistance in the 10442-56 area, marked by the July 3 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 10513. Alternatively, a below rising trend line support at 10426 targets the July 9 low at 10392, followed by a triple bottom in the 10354-75 area.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• Support: 10430, 10392, 10354-75
• Resistance:10456, 10513, 10560

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index rebounded as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern at support set from October 2013. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 10456 initially exposes the 38.2% level at 10513. Alternatively, reversal below rising trend line support set from the July 1 low at 10430 opens the door for a test of the July 9 low at 10392, followed by a triple bottom in the 10354-75 area.


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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Talking Points:

• Support: 10481, 10456, 10375
• Resistance:10513, 10560, 10606

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index broke above yet another layer of resistance after reversing upward as expected having put in a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern. Near-term resistance is at 10513, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A daily close above that exposes 50% level at 10560. Alternatively, a turn back below horizontal pivot support at 10481 opens clears the way for a test of 10456, the intersection of the 23.6% Fib and a rising trend line set from the July 1 low.

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...Picture_12.pngDaily ---

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Daily

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-After flirting with the line that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 lows for 3 weeks, the USDOLLAR found legs and trades just shy of the 50% retracement of the year’s range and 200 SMA. The bullish outside month in July is a good way for long term USD strength to resume but the current level likely inspires consolidation / pullback. Expect 10470 to hold if the larger trend is indeed higher.



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Daily

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-After flirting with the line that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 lows for 3 weeks, the USDOLLAR found legs and trades just shy of the 50% retracement of the year’s range and 200 SMA. The bullish outside month in July is a good way for long term USD strength to resume.
-10682 (50%) is in focus now. The year open is at 10668. I’d be surprised if a sharp pullback didn’t materialize from near 10690.



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Talking Points:

• Support: 10800, 10756, 10730
• Resistance:10844, 10914, 10984

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Indexmay be preparing to turn lower after putting in a Shooting Star candle having set a new 2014 high. Near-term support is at 10800, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 10756-65 area marked by the January 2014 high and the 50% level. Alternatively, a push above the 76.4% Fib at 10844 opens the door for a challenge of the 100% expansion at 10914.

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Talking Points:

• Support: 10869, 10816, 10729
• Resistance:10957, 11008, 11092

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Indexmay be carving out a top as negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum. A daily close below rising trend line support at 10931 exposes the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 10869. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 10957 clears the way for a test of the 23.6% threshold at 11008.


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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Weekly

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-“After flirting with the line that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 lows for 3 weeks, the USDOLLAR found legs. The bullish outside month in July is a good way for long term USD strength to resume.”
-A double bottom with the October 2013 and July 2014 lows in USDOLLAR was confirmed on the push above 10756. The pattern’s objective is 11142 but extreme momentum and sentiment does give scope to a period of weakness in order to reset the market for its next advance. Estimated support is 10815. A longer term target zone is 11324/52.


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Talking Points:

• Support: 10990, 10956, 10918
• Resistance:11043, 11130, 11200

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Indexput in a Shooting Star candlestick, hinting a pullback may in the cards. Near-term support is at 10990, marked by the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion and a rising trend line. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the September 22 high at 10956. Alternatively, a push above the 23.6% level at 11043 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fib at 11130.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Talking Points:

• Support: 10890, 10845, 10753
• Resistance:11044, 11143, 11216

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Indexmoved lower as expected after producing a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A daily close below falling channel bottom support at 10890 exposesthe 38.2% Fibonacci retracementat 10845. Alternatively, a turn above the channel top at 11044 clears the way for a test of 11143, the October 3 high.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Talking Points:

• Support: 10959, 10845, 10753
• Resistance:11143, 11216, 11308

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Indexlooks to be resuming its advance as buyers try to find follow-through on a Flag pattern completed last week. Near-term resistance is in the 11102-43 area marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and the October 3 high, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 11216. Alternatively, a reversal below the 10959-71 area (23.6% Fib retracement, trend line) opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% threshold at 10845.


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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Daily

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-“A double bottom with the October 2013 and July 2014 lows in USDOLLAR was confirmed on the push above 10756. Extreme momentum and sentiment gives scope to a period of weakness in order to reset the market for its next advance. Daily RSI has moderated enough to reset the market for another push higher.”
-Reset for the next move higher indeed as the USDOLLAR is now at its best levels since May 2009. The expansion of the 11143-10920 range is 11365.


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Talking Points:

• Support: 11278, 11219, 11143
• Resistance:11315, 11374, 11422

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Indexmay be topping having hit a five-year high following the formation of a Shooting Star candlestick. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Near-term support is at 11278, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the November 17 low at 11219. Alternatively, a turn above the 23.6% level at 11315 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fib at 11374.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Talking Points:

• Support: 11391, 11350, 11284
• Resistance:11457, 11511, 11565

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Indexcontinues to push upward, rising to levels not seen since April 2009. Near-term resistance is at 11457, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 11511. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib at 11391 opens the door for a challenge of the 14.6% expansion at 11350.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Daily

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-“The USDOLLAR pushed through the 2009 high before pulling back. Weekly RSI has been above 70 for 21 consecutive weeks (since 1971on the ICE USD, the next closest reading was 15…that happened twice before sharp declines). This is the 7th consecutive monthly advance (we’ve never seen more than 6 until now). Bottom line, it takes weakness below 11584 to suggest that the market is not going higher.” 11715 and 11643 may provide support.

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Technical Strategy: Holding Long
• Support: 11734, 11648, 11509
• Resistance:11888, 11983, 12077

US Dollar may be preparing to decline after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. Near-term support is in the 11734-67 area, marked by a rising trend line and the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11648. Alternatively, a push above the 11854-88 area marked by the March 2009 high and the 38.2% level clears the way for a test of the 50% Fib at 11983.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Technical Strategy: Holding Long
• Support: 11740, 11653, 11513
• Resistance:11791, 11888, 11983

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index continues to look vulnerable as a bearish Evening Star and negative RSI divergence warn of oncoming losses. A daily close below 11740-86 area marked by a rising trend line and the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement exposes the 23.6% level at 11653. Alternatively, a break above the 11854-76 zone (March 2009 high, 14.6% Fib expansion) opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% threshold at 11963.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Daily

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-“The USDOLLAR pushed through the 2009 high before pulling back. Weekly RSI has been above 70 for 21 consecutive weeks (since 1971on the ICE USD, the next closest reading was 15…that happened twice before sharp declines). This is the 7th consecutive monthly advance (we’ve never seen more than 6 until now). Bottom line, it takes weakness below 11584 to suggest that the market is not going higher.” 11715 and 11790 are near term trading levels (estimated support and resistance).



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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Technical Strategy: Holding Long
• Support: 11740, 11653, 11513
• Resistance:11842, 11876, 11963

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index may have finally started to turn lower as expected following the appearance of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 11740, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11653. Alternatively, a reversal above trend line support-turned-resistance at 11842 clears the way for a test of the 11854-76 zone (14.6% Fib expansion, March 2009 high).

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Technical Strategy: Holding Long
• Support: 11878, 11737, 11688
• Resistance:11965, 12107, 12221

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index broke a five-week range to extend to the highest level in over six years. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 11965 exposes the 38.2% level at 12107. Alternatively, a turn below the 11854-78 area (March 2009 high, 14% Fib) clears the way for a test of the February 26 low at 11737.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Technical Strategy: Holding Long
• Support: 11965, 11854, 11737
• Resistance:12107, 12221, 12335

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index may correct lower after producing a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 11965, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 11854-76 area (14.6% Fibonacci expansion, March 2009 high). Alternatively, a turn above the 38.2% Fib at 12107 opens the door for a challenge of the 50% expansion at 12221.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Extends Recovery for Fourth Consecutive Day
• S&P 500 Moves to Challenge Monthly Lows Once Again
• Crude Oil Extends Decline, Gold Stalls at Chart Support

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to recover after finding support at the March swing low, rising for a fourth consecutive day. Near-term resistance is at 12066, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 12149-77 zone (23.6% level, March 13 high). Alternatively, a move belowthe 11858-86 area (23.6% Fib retracement, March 18 low)clears the way for a test of the 38.2% threshold at 11679.

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S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the March 12low at 2040.10 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2004.60. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 2084.00 targets the 2111.00-19.40 area (23.6% threshold, February 25 high).

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1180.90 exposes the 38.2% level at 1156.83. Alternatively, a reversal above the 14.6% expansion at 1195.74 targets the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1205.58.

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices reversed sharply lower after finding resistance below the $60/barrel figure. A break below the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 54.53 exposes the 61.8% level at 53.30. Alternatively, a reversal above the 38.2% Fib at 55.77 targets the March 26 high at 59.75.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Daily
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-USDOLLAR continues to respect well-defined parallels. A drop below the lower parallel would indicate an important behavior change and potential for the largest decline since July 2014. Notice that the March top failed to reach resistance from the upper parallel. This subtlety warns that support will not hold.


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