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Oil Prices - Ranging near Bullish Reversal
Today’s gains have helped offset a string of losses as fears over increasing oil output coupled with diminishing hopes that a US China trade deal will be reached. But, crude oil prices still remain above technical support at the 50.0 percent retracement level around $60.00/bbl drawn from October’s
peak and December’s bottom last year. Positive sentiment from a technical perspective has waned, however, after bullish uptrend support from the latest 40-plus percent rally was broken earlier this month. Now, a short-term bearish downtrend has formed while a downward-sloping 34-day EMA both look to serve as headwinds to further upside in oil prices.
Attachment 35525
Focusing in on a closer perspective, it appears that the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the high and low recorded on April 23 and May 6 respectively serves as a new area of confluence around the $61.50/bbl price. Oil bulls will likely watch this level closely to see if technical support continues to hold with the 61.8 percent and 50.0 percent Fibs encompassing the $62.50-63.20/bbl price level eyed as short-term upside targets. Although, if prices fail to hold footing above $60.00/bbl, crude could quickly accelerate to the downside.
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Dow Jones, FTSE 100 and DAX
Dow Jones| Longest Losing Weekly Streak in 8 years
Attachment 35649
The Dow Jones looks set for the longest weekly losing streak in 8 years (5th consecutive week). As it stands, the outlook is relatively weak for the Dow Jones, does a close below 25500 could see losses extend towards the 25000 level. To negate the bearish momentum, eyes will be on for a break above 25700, which opens up the doors for 26100.
FTSE 100 | Key Fib Keeps the Index Above 7200
Marginal losses for the FTSE 100 as the decline in the Pound kept the index afloat. The key fib leve situated at 7200 remains pivotal for the index, which has held firm thus far. On the topside, a break above 7400 is needed to ease the bearish momentum. Given that next week will likely get of to a quiet start, the index could be somewhat rangebound.
DAX | 12000 Break May Pave the Way for Further Losses
Attachment 35650
Despite the DAX closing lower by 1.5% for the week, the index has managed to remain in an uptrend, hugging the trendline support from the 2018 low. However, failure to hold above 12000 could see support zone tested at 11800. For the softer outlook to fade a closing break above 12300 is needed. Reminder, given market holidays on Monday, volumes will most likely be lighter thus markets may be vulnerable to overextended moves.
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Euro Weekly Price Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout
The breakout keeps EUR/USD constructive while above confluence support at 1.1187. Subsequent topside resistance objectives at the 61.8% retracement of the 2019 range at 1.1393 and the objective yearly open at 1.1445 – look for a more significant reaction there IF reached. A break / close below 1.1107 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend.
Attachment 35774
Bottom line: Euro held long-term slope support for over two months with the breach above channel resistance this week shifting the focus back to the long-side as we head deeper into June trade. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a test of the upper targets here. Ultimately, we’ll favor fading weakness while above 1.1187.Review my latest EUR/USD Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term trading levels.
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USD/JPY - Bearish Triangle
A persistent slide in US Treasury yields, waning hopes for Chinese-US trade settlement and the possibility of new US tariffs on European goods have all added to investors’ already lengthy worry list, so it’s hardly surprising that the Yen should play its hallowed fundamental role.
Attachment 36041
Technically USDJPY’s late-June bounce seems to have petered out at this week’s highs of 108.51 or so. Still, the pair remains above the formerly pervasive downtrend line which has marked the Yen’s strengthening since late April. With the US disrupted for the Independence Day break it might yet be premature to write off the latest Dollar rally completely.
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USD/JPY - Bear Market Rally
The Japanese Yen has begun to gain again on the US Dollar once more, with the Federal Reserve’s apparent willingness to keep interest rate cuts on the table, despite last week’s good news from the labor market, providing the fundamental backdrop for this latest bout of Greenback weakness.
Technically, USDJPY’s short-term daily chart bias would appear to be to the downside too, if not quite conclusively yet. The pair is flirting with a break of a quite well-respected uptrend line which has so far market the bounce seen from the effective 2019 lows reached in late June.
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Clearly a daily or weekly close below that line looks highly likely at this point and, unless Dollar bulls can reassert themselves, the base of the current trading range looks set for a revisit. That comes in at 108.80 and its hard to see any conclusive falls below that failing to retest the year’s low, probably quite quickly.
The range top at 108.98 provides those Dollar bulls with their most obvious upside target, but they would probably need to consolidate in that region before they could dare to dream of retaking all of the sharp falls seen on May 31. The pair would need to rise back to 109.60 if it is to fully erase them. That looks like a tall order.
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EURUSD at Multi-Year Lows
We move into a new trading week and season with critical technical levels under pressure or collapsing. The US indices are on the cusp of volatile but rigid ranges while the Dollar has extended its charge to a fresh multi-year high. Breakouts are likely, but follow through can remain a tripping point if not properly appointed with speculative momentum. Be ready for transition in market conditions.
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The US Dollar surged to multi-year highs last week as the greenback continues to show its strength, but does USD have room to run or will technical resistance keep upward momentum at bay?
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