NZD/USD 4th Attempt to Separate from .8200
Daily
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-The NZDUSD remains one of the more compelling longer term bearish possibilities. Consider that…
-The decline from the April high unfolded in 5 waves (impulsive), the advance from the August low is defined by converging lines (pennant, common in bear market advances)
-Action since 9/18 may compose a head and shoulders top.
Trading Strategy: This is the fourth attempt to separate from .8200. It’s unlikely that the market holds this time. A short position is likely after some consolidation (and when the opportunity is offered to add to the AUDUSD position).
LEVELS: .8075 .8133 .8168 | .8225 .8257 .8276
--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Forex Strategy: USD/JPY Aiming for 104.00?
Talking Points
- USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Pending Long
- Prices broke out of a Triangle chart pattern and pushed above 100.06 (23.6% Fib)
- We will look for confirmation on the close of the current bar to look for long entries
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Breakdown; Here are Trading Tactics
- USDJPY still faces 101.52
- Tracking a possible AUDJPY opportunity
- AUDUSD and NZUSD breakdowns and trading tactics
USD/JPY
Daily
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-USDJPY has broken above the trendline that extends off of the Jul and Sep highs and re-tested the line as support on 11/19.
-The market still faces the 101.52 (Jul high). Of note is the fact that the Nikkei (USD) has already broken above its Jul high. Is USDJPY just lagging or is the Nikkei wrong? There is no way to know in advance. Just know that the USDJPY hasn’t confirmed the Nikkei’s strength just yet.
-Possible road blocks after 101.52 but before the May high include 102.50 and 103.15.
Trading Strategy: I am long (trigger was 99.85). Stop is tightened to 99.55 and I am on the lookout for a chance to add to the position.
AUD/JPY
Daily
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-AUDJPY is testing trendline support following the outside day reversal on 11/20. The 11/20 close is possible resistance at 93.37.
-A break below 92.30 (daily close) would suggest that a larger retracement of the rally from the August low is underway.
Trading Strategy: This is just a possible setup at this point (not even a setup). Fear of a failed USDJPY breakout and record high equity market is reason enough to track this market though.
AUD/USD
4Hour
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-AUDUSD covered the 9/13 close (.9243) this week and confirmed a head and shoulders top. The weak right shoulder suggests an exceptionally vulnerable market.
-.9250 and just broken support at .9267 is now the estimated resistance zone. Near term support may reside between .9069 and .9115.
Trading Strategy: The first target was hit at .9250. The stop on the remainder is lowered to .9450. Plans are to add to the position above .9250.
NZD/USD
Daily
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-The NZDUSD remains one of the more compelling longer term bearish possibilities. Consider that…
-The decline from the April high unfolded in 5 waves (impulsive), the advance from the August low is defined by converging lines (pennant, common in bear market advances)
-A head and shoulders top was confirmed this week. Resistance is estimated from .8190 to .8230.
Trading Strategy:Looking to short early next week…probably above .8200 and as high as .8265.
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Dollar Takes Aim at Monthly High, SPX 500 Reversal Risk Remains
Talking Points:
- US Dollar Moves to Challenge November Swing Top
- S&P 500 Sets New High But Reversal Risk Remains
- Gold Vulnerable to Deeper Losses, Oil May Recover
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded from resistance-turned-support at the top of a falling channel set from July (now in the 10493-521 area) as expected. Near-term resistance is in the 10641-53 region, marked by the November 12 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A push above that targets the 38.2% level at 10839.
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S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 1808.20, the 150% Fibonacci expansion, with a break upward targeting the 161.8% level at 1820.80. Negative RSI divergence continues to warn of ebbing upward momentum, hinting a reversal may be around the corner. Near-term support is at 1795.50, the 138.2% Fib. A reversal back beneath that aims for the 123.6% expansion at 1779.80.
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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled from resistance at a falling trend line set from late October. A break below support at 1249.18, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, has exposed the 76.4% level at 1222.60. A reversal back above 1249.18 aims for the trend line (now at 1265.38), followed by the 50% Fib at 1270.67.
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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate above the November 14 low 92.49, with positive RSI divergence hinting a bounce may be ahead. Initial resistance is at 95.37, marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion and reinforced by the top of a falling channel set from late August. A break above that initially exposes the 23.6% level at 97.14. Alternatively, a move below 92.49 targets the channel bottom at 89.68.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Forex: NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Talking Points
- Prices are testing back above support-turned-resistance at 0.8214 (38.2% Fib ret.)
- A close above this barrier exposesthe 0.8382-0.8435 area (Sep 18-19 highs)
- Turning back below 0.8214 targets 0.8113 (50% Fib retracement)
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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