USDJPY and EURUSD Technical Analysis

Talking Points:

• EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.3644
• Support: 1.3454, 1.3396, 1.3324
• Resistance:1.3502-12, 1.3583, 1.3637

The Euro declined against the US Dollar as expected after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below support at 1.3454, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, clears the way for a decline to the 61.8% level at 1.3396. Alternatively, reversal back above the 1.3502-12 area, marked by the 38.2% Fib and the June 5 low, opens the door for another challenge of the 23.6% expansion at 1.3583.


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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points:

• USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 102.71, 102.45, 102.25
• Resistance: 103.03, 103.50, 103.79

The US Dollar may have completed a major upward breakout against Japanese Yen after prices cleared resistance capping gains since January. The bulls now aim to challenge the 100%Fibonacci expansion at 103.03, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 123.6% level at 103.50. Alternatively, a reversal back below resistance-turned-support at 102.71 – the April 22 high – opens the door for a retest of the broken trend line (now at 102.45).

The available trading range is too narrow to justify a trade on the long or short side from a risk/reward perspective. We will continue to stand aside for now, waiting for an actionable trade setup to emerge.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Talking Points

• USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Pending Short
• Dojis Demonstrate Indecision From Traders
• Failure To Breach 103.00 Casts Doubt On Gains

USD/JPY may continue its consolidation with several successive Doji formations denoting indecision from traders. The pair remains in a congestion zone with sellers sitting nearby at 102.77/103.00 and support resting at the 102.20 floor. A break of either region would be required to offer a clearer directional bias.

Dojis Highlight Hesitation Near Key Technical Levels

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The four hour chart offered an early warning sign of USD/JPY’s intraday reversal. The Shooting Star formation near 102.75 suggested a retracement to nearby support at 102.40. However, with bullish signals seemingly absent, a recovery over the session ahead is questionable.

Searching For Direction With Bullish Patterns Absent

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By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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Talking Points

• USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Shorts Preferred
• Hammer Awaits Confirmation To Suggest Recovery
• Focus Remains On Range-Bottom Near 101.00/20

USD/JPY’s recent Hammer formation on the daily may fail to yield a recovery for the pair with heavy congestion overhead. A jump over the 102.20 hurdle would be required to cast the immediate risk the upside, which would open the 102.77/103.00 range-top. However, at this stage the focus remains on the 101.00/20 floor.

Hammer May Fail To Find Follow-Through
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The four hour chart offered an early warning indication for USD/JPY’s intraday reversal. The Dragonfly Doji formation near 101.75 suggested a bounce to the psychologically-significant 102.00 handle. With a Harami pattern now in its wake there may be the potential for intraday weakness for the pair.

Harami May Yield Intraday Weakness

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By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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Talking Points:

• USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 102.51, 102.28, 101.98
• Resistance: 102.75, 103.05, 103.53

The US Dollar is trying to renew upward momentum against the Japanese Yen as prices fight to rise toward the 103.00 figure. Near-term resistance is at 102.75, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 76.4% level at 103.05. Alternatively, a reversal below the 50% Fib at 102.51 clears the way for a test of 102.28, the intersection of the 38.2% expansion and a rising trend line set from mid-July.
Prices are wedged too closely between near-term support and resistance to justify taking a trade from a risk/reward perspective. We will stand aside for the time being, waiting for a more attractive setup to present itself.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Talking Points:

• USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 103.53, 103.05, 102.75
• Resistance: 104.00-12, 104.30, 104.54

The US Dollar is hovering near the highest levels in five months against the Japanese Yen after rallying the most since mid-March earlier in the week. A daily close above the 104.00-12 area marked by the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion and the April 4 swing high exposes the 138.2% level at 104.30. Alternatively, a turn below the 100% Fib at 103.53 opens the door for a challenge of the 76.4% expansion at 103.05.

Attachment 9250

Risk/reward considerations argue against entering long with prices in close proximity to resistance. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bearish reversal signal suggests taking up the short side is premature. We will remain flat for now.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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Talking Points

• USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Sidelines Preferred
• Daily Close Below 104.00 Suggests A ‘False Breakout’
• Parade of Dojis Highlight Indecision Amongst Traders

The USD/JPY bulls have seemingly lost their grip on the pair after a Doji signaled hesitation from traders near 104.00. The daily close below the critical barrier warns of further weakness and may set the scene for a retest of the 103.00 floor.

Daily Close Confirms ‘False Breakout’

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A narrow trading band and parade of Dojis on the four hour chart is indicative of indecision amongst traders. This suggests awaiting a more constructive set of signals before entering new positions may be prudent.

Dojis Indicate Indecision As Trading Band Emerges

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By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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- Euro matches longest weekly consecutive losing streak since inception
- Sentiment, Positioning, and cyclical studies all warn of a potential EURUSD reversal
- Watch critical support ahead of highly-anticipated European Central Bank decision

The Euro has now matched its longest weekly losing streak on record as the Dollar surges. Why do we think it’s at special risk of reversal in the coming week?

Euro Matches Longest Consecutive Weekly Decline since Inception

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Retail Positions Hit Most Stretched Since Euro Traded to $1.20

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Professional Positioning Likewise at Most Stretched Since Same $1.20 lows

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Moving Averages Crossing Lower, Support Downtrend. $1.3105 is Key Support

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--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com David specializes in automated trading

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Talking Points

• USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Sidelines Preferred
• Bullish Engulfing Formation Hints At Further Gains
• Dojis on H4 Highlight Indecision Amongst Traders

USD/JPY has been offered a hint at further gains in the form of a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. If confirmed by a successive up-day the formation could herald a grind towards the 104.85 ceiling. However, some skepticism is warranted given the recent whipsawing around the psychologically-significant 104.00 handle by the pair.

Bullish Engulfing Formation Awaiting Confirmation

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The four hour chart hardly inspires confidence in the potential for USD/JPY to continue its ascent. Several short-body candles near its recent highs are indicative of indecision from traders. This suggests it may be prudent to keep an eye out for bearish reversal signals which could hint at an intraday correction.

Dojis Indicate Indecision As Trading Band Emerges

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By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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Talking Points

• USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Pending Long
• Shooting Star Awaiting Confirmation Near 2014 Highs
• Doji on H4 Highlighted Hesitation Amongst Traders

USD/JPY’s recent rocket higher is at risk of losing fuel as a Shooting Star begins to take shape on the daily. If confirmed by the close of the current candle and a successive down period the bearish candlestick may be the precursor to a further correction. However, against the backdrop of a short-term uptrend buying dips would be preferred.

Shooting Star Takes Shape Following Failure To Crack 105.40

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The four hour chart offered an early indication that USD/JPY’s upside momentum was fading. A Doji formation near 105.28 signaled hesitation from the bulls. Yet classic reversal signals appear lacking at this stage. A continued retreat is likely to find buying interest renewed near intraday support at 104.42.

Doji Highlighted Hesitation Near 105.28 Barrier

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By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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