Weekly Outlook: 2014 - 2024

Forex Weekly Outlook October 27-31

German Ifo Business Climate, US Core Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence, FOMC Statement and rate decision, US and Canadian GDP data, US Unemployment Claims, Fed Chair Yellen’s speech. These are a few of the larger events on our calendar for this week. Follow along as we explore the Forex market movers.

Last week, US data continued to surprise with a better than expected headline CPI rising 1.7% on a yearly base and 0.1% monthly in September while core CPI remained unchanged. Furthermore US unemployment claims increased to 283K but remained below 300,000 for a sixth straight week and he four-week moving average declined to its lowest level since May 2000. Will the strong US data continue despite the global slowdown trend?

1. Eurozone German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. German business climate index, based on a monthly survey of about 7,000 responders, declined in September to 104.7 from 106.3 posted in August. Economists expected a higher reading of 105.9. Sentiment worsened across the board amid the prolonged crisis in Ukraine impacting more than 6,000 German firms and the weak recovery in the Eurozone economy. Nevertheless, the German Bundesbank forecasted a positive end to the year despite the recent slowdown. German business sentiment is expected to reach 104.6 this time.
2. US Core Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 12:30. US durable goods orders plunged in August due to volatility in aircraft orders. Orders dropped 18.2% after a strong rise of 22.6% in July. However the overall growth trend remained strong. Meantime, Core orders excluding transportation advanced by 0.7% in August after a 0.8% decline in the previous month. Core orders reflect the true trend, rising 17.2% in the three months to August. The rise in orders is also reflected by the constant improvement in the US job market with fewer layoffs and increase hiring. Durable goods orders are projected to gain 0.4% , while Core durable goods orders are expected to increase by 0.5%.
3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. U.S. consumer confidence worsened in September, falling to 86 from 93.4 in the prior month. Economists expected a milder decline to 92.2. The strong decline may be explained by less favorable assessments of the current job market condition. Consumers expected economic growth to stall in the following months ahead. The outlook index declined to 83.7 from a revised 93.1 reading, while the present conditions index fell to 89.4 from a revised 93.9.
4. US FOMC Statement: Wednesday, 0:00. The Fed maintained interest rates and reduced its QE program by $10 billion as expected. The Federal Reserve made a hawkish statement that the period between the end of the QE program and the Fed’s first rate hike will take “Considerable time”. The Federal Reserve also released its latest Summary of Economic Projections, which shows stronger projections for rate hikes over the long run. Regarding the labor market, conditions have improved further. The Fed believes economic conditions are not sufficient for a rate hike.
5. NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the official cash rate at 3.5%. Governor Graeme Wheeler stated he won’t rush to raise rates as previously thought, since inflation remains contained. Wheeler also signaled a pause in the bank’s current tightening measures, indicating the bank needs to measure the impact of the four rate hikes this year. The policy statement projects slower inflation by the end of 2015. Rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.5%.
6. US GDP data: Thursday, 12:30. The third estimate of real gross domestic product release for the second quarter showed an annual rate expansion of 4.6%, following June’s estimate of 4.2%. The 4.6% growth in real GDP showed growing personal consumption, private inventory investment, exports, as well as local government spending. The gains were partially offset by a rise in imports, and a 0.9% decline in federal government expenditures. Personal consumption increased but the main growth force was fixed business investments expanding 9.7%. The BEA expected second quarter corporate profits increased $164.1 billion, compared to a $201.7 billion decrease in the first quarter. 3.1%
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 last week to 283,000. Despite the rise, the number of claims remained below 300,000 for a sixth straight week, indicating the US job market continues to strengthen in spite of a global slowdown trend. The four-week moving average fell to its lowest level since May 2000. However, the slowdown trend in major countries is starting to impact the US manufacturing sector. The number of jobless claims is expected to decline to 277,000 this time.
8. Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 13:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in Washington DC. Yellen may address the rate hike issue amid continued U.S. economic growth and strengthening in the US labor market. Likewise the Fed Chair may discuss the global slowdown trend which may affect the US economy in the coming months.
9. Japan rate decision: Friday. The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged at its October meeting. The Bank also unanimously decided to prolong its money market operations to raise the monetary base to an annual pace of between JPY 60 and 70 trillion and reach a 2.0% inflation rate. The central bank was more pessimistic regarding economic conditions, despite stating that the economy is continuing to recover moderately as a trend. Regarding global developments, the BOJ sees a downside risk in the pace of recovery in the US and the unclear state of the Eurozone economy.
10. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. Canada’s economy did now grow in July, from the previous month due to a slowdown in the mining, and oil and gas industries offset by a rise in manufacturing and the public sector. Mining, oil and gas industries contracted by 1.5% in July. Manufacturing expanded by 1% and the public sector by 0.5%. Economists expected a minor growth of 0.2%. This sluggish growth suggests the BOC will be on no hurry to raise rates anytime soon.

Dollar and Market Confidence Ride on FOMC Decision

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Bullish

• In a deluge of event risk this week, the FOMC rate decision stands as a focal point for the Dollar and market sentiment
• A status quo or slightly hawkish lean from the Fed risks reviving the fallout of the ‘Taper Tantrum’

Attachment 10415

The US Dollar managed to muscle out a modest advance this past week despite favorable winds for investor sentiment (through benchmarks like S&P 500 and volatility indexes) as well as a persistent dovishness in rate forecasts. Such resilience given the downgrade in its return potential and disinterest in safe havens is encouraging. However, that shouldn’t lead us to view the currency as being fundamentally indestructible. Last week was a period of respite. Reflection after the broad selling of ‘risk’ through the opening half of October is reasonable when key, open-ended fundamental themes are unresolved…and facing the kind of definitive milestones we expect in the week ahead. Both the Greenback and market-wide sentiment may finally find their cue for trend in the forthcoming event risk.

From a wealth of US and global event risk scheduled through the coming week, the most potent catalyst will be the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy decision Wednesday (18:00 GMT). This will be important for the Dollar on multiple levels. It will most readily feed speculation surrounding the relative future yield of the US currency and its assets. In the past few weeks, US rate forecasts have collapsed. A combination of downgraded global growth forecasts, tepid domestic data and provocative comments from a few Fed officials has pushed out expectations for the first rate hike and the trajectory of the pace thereafter.

From Fed Funds and Eurodollar futures (used to hedge interest rate risk), we find the market doesn’t entertain the chance of the first hike in the policy regime change until September 2015. Previously, the running consensus was for a ‘mid-2015’ move interpreted as the June 17 meeting. Furthermore, the pace of tightening has been downgraded so that now the benchmark rate is expected to be 0.46 percent on December 2015 and 1.36 percent come December 2016. The FOMC’s own consensus forecast for the same periods released just last month are 1.13 and 2.50 percent respectively. That is a substantial discount the market is ‘pricing in’.

This severe discrepancy will shape the market’s reaction to the event itself. Given the dovish view, a ‘neutral’ outcome could elicit a strong bullish outcome for the Dollar. In this case, holding true to the central bank’s trend through its past meetings of a final Taper to the QE3 program and undisturbed consensus (cautious optimism for the economy and employment) would indicate to the market that the Fed is keeping to its schedule and the consensus forecasts they produced in September. To meet the market’s level of dovishness, we would need to see either a delay in the final Taper (highly unlikely) or a significant softening to the tone in the monetary policy statement that accompanies the announcement.

What makes the upcoming rate decision even more intoxicating for the Dollar is its potential systemic influence over sentiment. Many attribute the sharp drop in global equities and other return-oriented markets earlier this month to a ‘Taper Tantrum’ – or the realization that stimulus regimes were shifting and the support for excessive risk taking was reversing. If that fundamental assessment is accurate, the Fed maintaining its path towards tightening can quickly wipe out this past week’s gains and definitively undermine a precarious market structure of record leverage, tepid participation and dependency on extremely low volatility conditions. In other words, we could see an aversion to risk that can fully engage the greenback’s safe haven quality.

While much of the Dollar’s and market’s potential revolves around the FOMC decision, there will be plenty of event risk at hand. The US 3Q GDP reading and the impact to the Euro (the second most liquid currency) from a glut of important event risk should also be monitored. Yet, should push come to shove, an active response to the FOMC will override all other interests.

USD/JPY to Eye Fresh Highs on Less-Dovish FOMC, More BOJ Easing

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bullish

• The Weekly Volume Report: USD/JPY Rallies, Turnover Doesn’t
• Yen May See Greater Impact from Eurozone PMIs Than the Euro

[U]Attachment 10416

The fundamental outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish as Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) moves away from its easing cycle, but the dollar-yen may struggle to press fresh highs next week should the Bank of Japan (BoJ) refrain from further expanding its asset-purchase program.

With the Fed’s QE exit largely priced-in, the forward guidance for monetary policy is likely to have a greatest impact on the USD/JPY, and we will favor a further appreciation in the greenback should the central bank show a greater willingness to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in 2015. On the other hand, the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may drag on interest rate expectations as the majority remains in no rush to normalize policy, and we may see a larger correction in the reserve currency should the central bank look to retain its highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.

In contrast, market participants are still looking for a further expansion in the BoJ’s asset-purchase program as lower energy costs curb the outlook for inflation, and the Japanese Yen may face additional headwinds over the near-term should Governor Haruhiko Kuroda take additional steps to stimulate the ailing economy. However, the BoJ may stick to its current policy as the central bank head remains confident in achieving the 2% target for price growth, and the Yen may outperform against its major counterparts should market participant pare bets of seeing additional monetary support in Japan.

With that said, the USD/JPY may extend the recent series of higher highs & lows on more easing from the BoJ along with a less-dovish statement from the Fed, but the pair may fail to retain the rebound from 105.18 should both central banks disappoint.

New Zealand Dollar at Risk on Dovish RBNZ, Status-Quo FOMC

Fundamental Forecast for New Zealand Dollar: Bearish

• NZ Dollar Vulnerable if RBNZ Opts to Augment Future Rate Hike Pledge
• Status-Quo FOMC May Send Kiwi Lower as Fed Tightening Bets Rebuild

Attachment 10417

The New Zealand Dollar is in for a volatile period in the week ahead as a hefty dose of domestic fundamental event risk is compounded by high-profile macro-level developments. On the home front, the spotlight is on the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. September’s outing marked a shift into wait-and-see mode after four consecutive rate increases. The central bank is widely expected to maintain the benchmark lending rate unchanged again, putting the policy statement under the microscope as traders attempt to infer where officials will steer next.

Last month, the RBNZ argued that while “it is prudent to undertake a period of monitoring and assessment before considering further policy adjustment…some further policy tightening will be necessary.” Since then, CPI inflation has plunged to the weakest in a year while the exchange rate – a perennial source of concern over recent months – arrested a three-month decline and began to recover. This may prompt the central bank to withdraw language signaling renewed rate hikes are on the horizon after the current “assessment period” runs its course, an outcome which stands to undercut yield-based support for the New Zealand Dollar and send prices lower.

Externally, the central concern preoccupying investors is the ability of a resurgent US economy to underpin global growth, offsetting weakness in China and the Eurozone. That puts the FOMC monetary policy announcement in the spotlight. Janet Yellen and company are widely expected to issue one final $15 billion reduction in monthly asset purchases to conclude the QE3 stimulus program. The probability of a surprise extension seems overwhelmingly unlikely. That means the announcement’s market-moving potential will be found in guidance for the timing of the first subsequent rate hike inferred from the accompanying policy statement.

Recent weeks have witnessed a moderation in the Fed tightening outlook as global slowdown fears encouraged speculation that the central bank will want to safe-guard the US recovery from knock-on effects of weakness elsewhere by delaying normalization. Indeed, fed funds futures now reveal priced-in expectations of a rate hike no sooner than December of next year, far later than prior bets calling for a move around mid-year. A change FOMC statement reflecting renewed concerns about persistently low inflation would validate this shift. Alternatively, a restatement of the status quo would hint the markets’ dovish lean has over-reached, triggering a readjustment and putting pressure on the Kiwi. Considering the Fed’s steady hand through the first-quarter US slowdown, the latter scenario seems more probable.

AUD Faces A Potential “Breakout” On US Heavy Event Risk

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

• AUD/USD Remains Range-Bound Despite Plenty Of Intraday Volatility
• Void of Major Domestic Data To Leave Steadfast RBA Policy Bets Intact
• Volatility Swell and US-Centric Event Risk To Offer AUD/USD Guidance

Attachment 10418

The Australian Dollar witnessed another week of wild intraday swings that seemingly found little follow-through. Traders looked past another status-quo set of RBA Meeting Minutes that reinforced the prospect of a “period of stability” for rates. Further, CPI figures remained contained within the central banks’ target range, doing little to alter steadfast policy expectations. Similarly, top-tier data from regional powerhouse, China, failed to deliver lasting cues for the currency.

A light domestic economic docket over the coming week is likely to leave RBA policy bets well-anchored and see the Aussie take its cues from elsewhere. While the AUD’s yield advantage has remained robust, its appeal has waned due to elevated volatility levels. This in turn is likely to cap carry trade demand for the currency even alongside broader improvements in risk sentiment.

The catalyst for the next break lower for AUD/USD is likely to emerge from the US Dollar side of the equation. The upcoming FOMC decision may offer the spark needed if the statement offers a more hawkish lean that focuses on labor market improvements, rather than subdued inflation.

Speculators remain net short the pair according to the latest COT figures. Yet positioning is roughly half what was witnessed in mid-2013, suggesting the short trade is far from being “crowded”. Downside risks remain centered on the 2014 lows near 0.8660, which if broken on a ‘daily close’ basis could pave the way for a descent on 0.8320 - the July 2010 low.

Gold Losses to Accelerate on Less Dovish FOMC- Support Break Eyes 1206

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

• WTI Bounces From 80.00 Floor, Gold Remains Vulnerable Ahead Of US Data
• Gold 1217 and 1207 are Possible Support Levels

[U]Attachment 10419

Gold prices are softer this week with the precious metal off by 0.55% to trade at $1231 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses come amid a sharp rebound in broader equity markets with the S&P 500marking its strongest weekly performance since early January 2013. Although newswires remain largely dominated by Ebola headlines, markets have largely shifted focus with all eyes on next week’s key US event risk.

Looking ahead to next week, the FOMC policy meeting will be central focus with the central bank widely expected to end its asset purchase program. With headline CPI data this week coming in stronger than expected, close attention will be given to the verbiage of the accompanying policy statement as investors look for clues as to the Fed’s outlook on interest rates. The advanced read on 3Q GDP is released the following day with consensus estimates calling for a print of 3% q/q, down from the robust 4.6% q/q seen in 2Q. A hawkish tone to the policy statement on the back of the improving US data flow is likely to put pressure on bullion prices with the technical picture suggesting that prices remain vulnerable heading into the end of the month.

From a technical standpoint, gold reversed off of a key resistance range defined by the June close lows, the 38.2% retracement of the July decline and the 61.8% extension of the advance from the October low at $1244/48. Although the rally reached as high as $1255, prices failed to close above and the focus remains on this key resistance range. A breach above $1248 eyes more significant resistance at $1260/63 and $1283 where ultimately we would start looking for favorable short entries. Support rests with the 38.2% retracement of the monthly advance at $1222 with subsequent support objectives eyed at $1206 and $1178/82. It’s worth noting that while this week’s price action shifts our near-term bias to the short-side, the initial monthly opening range did break to the topside and another run at the highs cannot be ruled out before the broader downtrend resumes. Look for the FOMC rate decision to offer a catalyst here as we head into the close of the month with our attention shifting to the November opening range.

Nikkei forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Nikkei rose during the week, clearing the 15000 level again. With this, we feel that the market should continue to go higher at this point in time. The market recently tested the 16300 level, and we feel that is where it is heading to now. The market has a bit of noise above, and we think it will be a bit on the choppy side going higher. The market should provide buying opportunities on dips as well, essentially making this a “buy only” market. The trend is higher, and we will follow it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQiHkv_5kh8

Attachment 10427

DAX forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The German index rose during the week, after initially dropping down to the €8600 level. The hammer that had formed from the previous week of course was a good sign that we were going to see some buying pressure step into the marketplace, and we did in fact have that happen. If we can break above the top of this candle, which is essentially the €9100 level, we would be buyers of this market as we should then head to the €10,000 level. We don’t have any interest in selling this market at the moment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q89eypVnJ2A

Attachment 10428

NASDAQ forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The NASDAQ as you can see broke much higher during the course of the week, clearing the 4300 level. That was the level of that was of the top of the hammer from the previous week, and of course is that is a very positive sign. This market looks like it’s ready to test the 4600 level, that being said we are very positive. With that, we feel that this market should continue to go much higher, and as a result we are most certainly buyers of the NASDAQ going forward.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABdZda5gbAw

Attachment 10429

MIB forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Italian index broke higher during the course of the week, and most importantly cleared the top of the hammer from the previous week. With that being the case, we feel that this market should continue to go higher. With that, we feel that this market should continue to go as high as the 21,400 level given enough time, and then will more than likely go higher than that as we feel the market has had a significant pullback, but has most certainly shown that the buyers are returning.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siCXM5BeNr4

Attachment 10430

Ibex forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Ibex broke higher during the course of the week in order to clear the €10,300 level, and more importantly the hammer from the previous week. That being the case, we feel that the market should continue to go much higher, probably aiming for the €11,200 level, which of course was the recent high that we have had twice. Because of this, we believe that we will head to that area and then eventually break out above it. We have no interest in selling this market as it does in fact look bullish at this point.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nf1R1okfVTw

Attachment 10431

CAC forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Parisian index initially dipped lower at the open during the week, but the €4000 level turned back around the bearish pressure and send the market much higher. With that, we closed above the top of the hammer from the previous week, thereby sending a longer-term buy signal into the marketplace. With that, we feel that this market will then head to the €4500 level, and should continue to attract traders all the way out. Recognize that there will be a little bit of bumping us on the way higher, but ultimately that is the signal.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJz9yOjbAzs

Attachment 10432

S&P 500 forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the top of the hammer from the previous week, sending this market well above the 1950 level, and now looking to get as high as the 2000 handle in the short-term, and probably much higher than that given enough time. Pullbacks at this point time should continue to be buying opportunities as is market should continue to attract buyers every time we get perceived value. Ultimately, we think that the market does break out to the upside and it does continue to go much higher.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsA6SUh80Xk

Attachment 10433

FTSE forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The FTSE as you can see initially fell during the course of the week, but found enough support at the 6225 level to turn things back around and form a positive candle. We did in fact break the top of the hammer from the previous week, so we believe that the FTSE will continue to grind higher given enough time. We like buying the FTSE, but we recognize that it’s probably going to be a very volatile move higher, as there is a lot of noise above. Nonetheless, we don’t see any opportunities for selling.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUhZWMWiAZg

Attachment 10434

Dow Jones 30 forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones 30 broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the top of a hammer that had formed on the previous week. Because of this, the markets look as if they are ready to go much higher, and most certainly the buyers are in control yet again that being the case, we feel that this market will have positive momentum going forward and as a result we are buyers. We have no way of selling this market as it obviously has a massive amount of support just below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHdHVxMtlrw

Attachment 10435

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index fell initially during the course of the week, testing the 85 level for support. With that being the case, we ended up bouncing enough to form a hammer and it suggests that the market is in fact going to continue going higher, perhaps testing the 90 level given enough time. With that being the case, we feel that the market can be bought on dips, and simply cannot be sold anytime soon as the US dollar continues to be the favored currency by Forex traders.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0lAUtmHol4

Attachment 10436

Silver forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The silver markets tried to rally during the course of the previous week, as the $18 level continues to offer significant resistance. That resistance ended up forming a shooting star, which of course is a very bearish sign. Silver markets are essentially broken at this point in time, and we do fully anticipate a move down to the $15 level. We have no interest whatsoever in buying silver at the moment, as we believe the sellers will continue to push this market much lower given enough time. Ultimately, we believe the value the US dollar continues to work against precious metals.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btauxy1qPsk

Attachment 10437

Crude Oil forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

Believe sweet crude market fell during the course of the week, as we continue to see quite a bit of bearish pressure in this marketplace. That being the case, it’s obvious for us that the US dollar will continue to drive this market lower. However, the $80 level below is rather supportive, and a large, round, psychologically significant number. That of course is a barrier that we will have to contend with, but there is nothing on this chart that doesn’t suggest it’s possible.

If we bounce from here, we think that the sellers will step back in and push this market down as well, so therefore we have no interest in buying at this point in time because any bounce will more than likely just be a bit of a “dead cat bounce”, meaning that the sellers will almost certainly step in and reassert their control.

Attachment 10438

Brent

Brent markets went back and forth during the course of the week as well, but ended up forming something along the lines of a hammer. Because of this, we could get a little bit of a bounce but let’s be honest here: the market is oversold at this point in time, so that would be a huge surprise at this point in time with the sellers being so aggressive recently.

At the end of the day though, we believe that the next major support level is closer to the $80 level, so any bounce from here will more than likely just bring in more sellers as people will look at it as an opportunity to get involved in the market yet again. That being the case though, you can see that we have broken down significantly over the last several months, so the move has been a bit aggressive and more than likely will struggle to continue with the same tenacity that it has seen. With that, we believe that waiting for a bounce that show signs of resistance or failure will be the way to go going forward.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdGpkBLjB6A

Attachment 10439

Natural Gas forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets had a significant breakdown this week, breaking below the recent support and testing the $3.60 level. This area of course is below the most recent low, and with that we feel that the market will more than likely test the $3.50 level, a much more significant supportive level. With that, we are bearish and would sell rallies at this point time as the natural gas markets continue to come undone. We see no scenario in which we are buyers, as natural gas markets have simply lost all upward momentum.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWovO67vG18

Attachment 10440

Gold forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The gold markets tried to rally during the course of the week, but as you can see the $1250 level offered enough resistance to turn the market back around, and formed a shooting star. The shooting star is a very negative sign, and as a result it appears of this market is ready to continue grinding lower. We have to get to a fresh, new low before we feel that the market can really start to fall with any significant momentum, but at this point time you have to favor selling gold as opposed to owning it. After all, the US dollar continues to strengthen overall, and that of course works against the value of precious metals in general.

The shape of the candle is perfect, and it is at the exact place you would want to see it if you are bearish. Because of that, it’s only a matter of time in our opinion before this market rates down and starts to really selloff. Once the $1200 level is firmly in our rearview mirror, it’s very likely that we will then head down to the $1000 level, which of course is the next large, round, psychologically significant number. With that being the case, it’s probably going to be very likely that we would fall away down there in order to try to find buyers.

The $1000 level as you can see on longer-term charts is one that is a very significant area historically, and as a result it would make a lot of sense if we had a lot of buying pressure in that general vicinity, but at this point in time, there’s no signs that the buyers are going to step into the market and push prices higher. This will be especially true as long as a US Dollar Index continues to rise, which of course was very bullish of the moment. With that, we believe that there is a longer-term buying opportunity in the gold markets coming, but we are nowhere near it at the moment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chjrXXoBagQ

Attachment 10441

USD/JPY forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair fell during the course of the week, but found enough support below to turn things back around and form a hammer yet again. This is the second hammer in a row, and as a result it appears of the market will then head to the 110 level. With that, the 110 level will be tested and eventually broken above as we had to the 115 level. The 105 level below should be a bit of a “floor”, as the market should not go below there. If it did, things would change drastically, but at this point in time that looks very unlikely.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1g8sdcRYwQ

Attachment 10442

USD/CAD forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair fell during most of the week, but we found enough support at the 1.12 level to find buyers. That being the case, the market looks as if it’s ready to go higher, and although we formed a shooting star for the previous week, we had two hammers before that so we believe that more than likely the market will grind sideways for the most part in the near term, but ultimately will break out to the upside and head to the 1.14 level. Selling isn’t even a thought.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTvbIIaZxZU

Attachment 10443

NZD/USD forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, testing the 0.80 level for resistance. It did in fact find it there, and as a result turned back around and formed a negative candle. The negative candle of course suggests that the sellers are starting to get involved again, and that we will ultimately head down to the lows again. The 0.75 level is our next target, and we do recognize that the central bank in New Zealand continues to pressure the Kiwi, making us very bearish.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pZpSq_O7zc

Attachment 10444

GBP/USD forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, eventually forming a very neutral candle. The neutral candle suggests that the buyers are starting to make a little bit of noise here, and that we could very well see the market go higher. The previous hammer of course was very supportive, so we feel the market should eventually break out to the upside, but we need to clear the 1.62 level on a daily close in order to start buying at this point in time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0GoFotOcwU

Attachment 10445

EUR/USD forecast for the week of October 27, 2014, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but the 1.28 level offered enough resistance yet again to push the market back down and form a negative candle. That being the case, the market should continue to go much lower, perhaps testing the 1.25 level. That area, if we break through it will have a significant effect on this marketplace as it should push the Euro much lower. We have no interest in buying until we get above the 1.30 handle, as it would show a significant uptick in positive momentum.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IT1EYjawFy0

Attachment 10446

Forex - Weekly outlook: October 27 - 31

The euro pushed higher against the dollar on Friday after data showed that German consumer confidence improved, while upbeat U.K. third quarter growth data underpinned investor demand for the pound.

The euro found support after the forward looking Gfk index of German consumer climate ticked up to 8.5 for November from a revised 8.4 in October. The index had fallen sharply in the preceding two months as concerns over geopolitical risks and the ensuing economic slowdown weighed.

EUR/USD was up 0.17% to 1.2668 in late trade, holding below session highs of 1.2695.

Concerns over upcoming European bank stress test results, due for release on Sunday, along with a confirmed Ebola diagnosis in New York City bolstered safe haven demand for the yen and saw the dollar weaken slightly.

USD/JPY was down 0.12% to 108.14 late Friday, after falling as low as 107.77 earlier in the session. At the same time, USD/CHF was down 0.22% to 0.9518.

In the U.K., data on Friday showed that gross domestic product expanded by 0.7% in the third quarter, slowing from 0.9% in the three months to June, but in line with forecasts. Annual GDP was up 3%, also in line with forecasts.

The data underpinned expectations that the continuing economic recovery could prompt the Bank of England to hike interest rates in the second half of next year.

GBP/USD was at 1.6083 in late trade, 0.33% higher for the day.

The US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.19% to 85.79 late Friday. The index still ended the week higher, stabilizing following a steep selloff in the previous week.

Fears that a slowdown in global economic growth could act as a drag on the U.S. economic recovery have prompted investors to push back expectations for an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to the second half of 2015.

In the week ahead investors will be looking ahead to the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting amid expectations that it will wind up its asset purchase program.

Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed statement for further indications on how soon interest rates could start to rise.

Friday’s report on euro zone consumer inflation will also be in focus, amid growing expectations that the European Central Bank will have to take additional easing steps to boost the flagging euro area economy.

Monday, October 27

• The Ifo Institute is to release its report on German business climate. The euro zone is to release data on M3 money supply and private loans.
• The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales.
• The U.S. is to publish an industry report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, October 28

• Japan is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders and a report by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, October 29

• Japan is to publish preliminary data on industrial production.
• New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence.
• The U.K. is to report on net lending to individuals.
• Canada is to produce data on raw material price inflation.
• The Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.
• Later Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its official cash rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, October 30

• Australia is to release a report on import prices.
• The U.K. is to publish private sector data on house price inflation.
• In the euro zone, Germany is to produce preliminary data on the consumer price index, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. The country is also to release a report on the change in the number of people unemployed.
• Elsewhere in the euro area, Spain is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and third quarter GDP.
• Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.
• The U.S. is to publish revised data on third quarter GDP, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Friday, October 31

• New Zealand is to release data on building consents.
• Japan is to release reports on household spending and the consumer price index. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is to announce its monetary policy decision and publish its rate statement. The bank is also to hold a post-policy meeting press conference.
• The euro zone is to release what will be closely watched preliminary data on consumer inflation, as well as a report on the unemployment rate. In addition, Germany is to report on retail sales, while France is to publish data on consumer spending.
• Canada is to publish its monthly report on GDP growth.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on personal income and expenditure as well as revised data on consumer sentiment and a report on business activity in the Chicago region.

USD/JPY weekly outlook: October 27 - 31

The dollar ended slightly lower against the traditional safe haven yen on Friday as concerns over a confirmed Ebola diagnosis in New York City spurred increased demand for the Japanese currency.

USD/JPY was down 0.12% to 108.14 late Friday, after falling as low as 107.77 earlier in the session.

The dollar slid against the yen after a doctor in New York tested positive for the Ebola virus after returning from Guinea. The news fuelled concerns that a widespread outbreak of the virus could derail global economic growth.

The dollar later pulled away from session lows after data showed that U.S. new home sales rose 0.2% from a month earlier to hit a six year high of 467,000 in September.

The pair still ended the week with gains as the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and Japan’s central bank continued to underpin dollar demand.

The US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.19% to 85.79 late Friday. The index still ended the week higher, stabilizing following a steep selloff in the previous week.

Fears that a slowdown in global economic growth could act as a drag on the U.S. economic recovery have prompted investors to push back expectations for an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to the second half of 2015.

The Bank of Japan looks likely to stick to a looser monetary policy stance amid signs that the economic recovery in the world’s third-largest economy is faltering.

Japan’s government downgraded its assessment of the economic outlook for the second consecutive month last week, and a report earlier in the month showed that sentiment in the services sector deteriorated in the third quarter after a sales tax hike in April hit consumption.

Elsewhere, the euro was almost unchanged against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY trading at 137.01.

The single currency found support after the forward looking Gfk index of German consumer climate ticked up to 8.5 for November from a revised 8.4 in October.

The index had fallen sharply in the preceding two months as concerns over geopolitical risks and the ensuing economic slowdown weighed.

In the week ahead investors will be looking ahead to the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting amid expectations that it will wind up its asset purchase program. Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed statement for further indications on how soon interest rates could start to rise.

Data from Japan on retail sales, inflation and industrial production will also be closely watched, while Friday’s monetary policy announcement by the BoJ will also be in focus.

Monday, October 27

• The U.S. is to publish private sector data on pending home sales.

Tuesday, October 28

• Japan is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders and a report by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, October 29

• Japan is to publish preliminary data on industrial production.
• The Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, October 30

• The U.S. is to publish revised data on third quarter GDP, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Friday, October 31

• Japan is to release reports on household spending and the consumer price index. Meanwhile, the BoJ is to announce its monetary policy decision and publish its rate statement. The bank is also to hold a post-policy meeting press conference.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on personal income and expenditure, as well as revised data on consumer sentiment and a report on business activity in the Chicago region.

AUD/USD weekly outlook: October 27 - 31

The Australian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, after data showed that U.S. new home sales rose less-than-expected last month.

AUD/USD settled at 0.8792 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.36% for the day and 0.54% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8718, the low from October 24, and resistance at 0.8831, the high from October 21.

The dollar came under pressure after official data showed that U.S. new home sales rose 0.2% last month to 467,000 units, below expectations for an increase to 470,000 units.

August's figure was downwardly revised to a 15.3% climb to 466,000 units from a previously estimated 18.0% jump to 504,000 units.

Despite Friday's disappointing housing data, investors remained confident in the U.S. economic recovery, fuelling speculation that the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates sooner than expected.

Elsewhere, in Australia, a government report on Wednesday showed that consumer price inflation rose 0.5% in the third quarter, more than the expected 0.4% increase.

Year-on-year, Australia's CPI rose 2.3% in the last quarter, in line with expectations, after an increase of 3.0% in the second quarter.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators added to their bearish bets on the Australian dollar in the week ending October 21.

Net shorts totaled 31,509 contracts, compared to net shorts of 30,271 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead investors will be looking ahead to the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting amid expectations that it will wind up asset purchases under its third round of quantitative easing.

Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed statement for further indications on how soon interest rates could start to rise.

Monday, October 27

• The U.S. is to publish an industry report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, October 28

• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders and a report by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, October 29

• The Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, October 30

• Australia is to release a report on import prices.
• The U.S. is to publish revised data on third quarter GDP, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Friday, October 31

• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on personal income and expenditure as well as revised data on consumer sentiment and a report on business activity in the Chicago region.

NZD/USD weekly outlook: October 27 - 31

The New Zealand dollar bounced off a two-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as disappointing U.S. housing data dampened demand for the greenback.

NZD/USD hit a daily low of 0.7801 on Friday, the weakest level since October 8, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7855 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.42% for the day but still 0.78% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.7782, the low from October 8, and resistance at 0.7928, the high from October 23.

The dollar came under pressure after official data showed that U.S. new home sales rose 0.2% last month to 467,000 units, below expectations for an increase to 470,000 units.

August's figure was downwardly revised to a 15.3% climb to 466,000 units from a previously estimated 18.0% jump to 504,000 units.

Despite Friday's disappointing housing data, investors remained confident in the U.S. economic recovery, fuelling speculation that the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates sooner than expected.

The kiwi slumped to a two-week low earlier in the session after official data on Thursday showed that consumer price inflation in New Zealand rose 0.3% in the third quarter, below expectations for an increase of 0.5%.

The data fuelled speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could delay any potential rate hikes.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators scaled back their bearish bets on the New Zealand dollar in the week ending October 21.

Net shorts totaled 2,332 contracts, compared to net shorts of 2,384 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead investors will be looking ahead to the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting amid expectations that it will wind up asset purchases under its third round of quantitative easing.

Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed statement for further indications on how soon interest rates could start to rise.

A policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will also be in focus.

Monday, October 27

• The U.S. is to publish an industry report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, October 28

• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders and a report by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, October 29

• New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence.
• The Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statemen
• Later Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its official cash rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, October 30

• The U.S. is to publish revised data on third quarter GDP, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Friday, October 31

• New Zealand is to release data on building consents.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on personal income and expenditure as well as revised data on consumer sentiment and a report on business activity in the Chicago region.

GBP/USD weekly outlook: October 27 - 31

The pound was higher against the dollar on Friday as upbeat data on third quarter U.K. growth reinforced expectations that the ongoing recovery could prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates early next year.

GBP/USD was up 0.33% to 1.6083 in late trade, to end the week little changed.

Sterling was boosted after the Office of National Statistics reported that gross domestic product expanded by 0.7% in the third quarter, slowing from 0.9% in the three months to June, but in line with forecasts.

On a year-over-year basis, GDP grew 3%, in line with forecasts, down from annual growth of 3.2% in the second quarter.

The dominant service sector continued to be the biggest contributor to growth, followed by production, which includes manufacturing. Construction growth also picked up in the third quarter the ONS said.

The data fuelled expectations that the broad based economic recovery in the U.K. could prompt the BoE to hike interest rates in the early part of 2015.

Sterling was also higher against the euro, with EUR/GBP down 0.16% to 0.7875 in late trade.

The US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.19% to 85.79 late Friday. The index still ended the week higher, stabilizing following a steep selloff in the previous week.

Fears that a slowdown in global economic growth could act as a drag on the U.S. economic recovery have prompted investors to push back expectations for an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to the second half of 2015.

In the week ahead investors will be looking ahead to the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting amid expectations that it will wind up its asset purchase program.

Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed statement for further indications on how soon interest rates could start to rise.

Monday, October 27

• The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales.
• The U.S. is to publish an industry report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, October 28

• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders and a report by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, October 29

• The U.K. is to report on net lending to individuals.
• The Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, October 30

• The U.K. is to publish private sector data on house price inflation.
• The U.S. is to publish revised data on third quarter GDP, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Friday, October 31

• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on personal income and expenditure as well as revised data on consumer sentiment and a report on business activity in the Chicago region.

EUR/USD weekly outlook: October 27 - 31

The euro edged higher against the dollar on Friday as an improvement in German consumer confidence buoyed up the single currency.

EUR/USD was up 0.17% to 1.2668 in late trade, after rising to session highs of 1.2695. For the week, the pair was down 0.62%.

The euro found support after the forward looking Gfk index of German consumer climate ticked up to 8.5 for November from a revised 8.4 in October.

The index had fallen sharply in the preceding two months as concerns over geopolitical risks and the ensuing economic slowdown weighed.

Concerns over European bank stress test results along with a confirmed Ebola diagnosis in New York City bolstered safe haven demand for the yen and saw the dollar weaken slightly.

The dollar slid against the yen after a doctor in New York tested positive for the Ebola virus after returning from Guinea. The news fuelled concerns that a widespread outbreak of the virus could derail global economic growth.

The dollar later pulled away from session lows against the euro and the yen after data showed that U.S. new home sales rose 0.2% from a month earlier to hit a six year high of 467,000 in September.

The US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.19% to 85.79 late Friday. The index still ended the week higher, stabilizing following a steep selloff in the previous week.

Fears that a slowdown in global economic growth could act as a drag on the U.S. economic recovery have prompted investors to push back expectations for an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to the second half of 2015.

In contrast, the European Central Bank has cut interest rates to record lows in recent months and announced monetary stimulus measures in a bid to spur growth in the euro area.

The single currency weakened across the board earlier in the week after Reuters reported that the ECB is examining plans to widen its asset purchasing stimulus program to include corporate debt.

In the week ahead investors will be looking ahead to the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting amid expectations that it will wind up its asset purchase program. Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed statement for further indications on how soon interest rates could start to rise.

Friday’s report on euro zone consumer inflation will also be in focus, amid growing expectations that the ECB will have to take additional easing steps to boost the flagging euro area economy.

Monday, October 27

• The Ifo Institute is to release its report on German business climate. The euro zone is to release data on M3 money supply and private loans.
• The U.S. is to publish an industry report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, October 28

• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders and a report by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, October 29

• The Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, October 30

• In the euro zone, Germany is to produce preliminary data on the consumer price index, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. The country is also to release a report on the change in the number of people unemployed.
• Elsewhere in the euro area, Spain is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and third quarter GDP.
• The U.S. is to publish revised data on third quarter GDP, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Friday, October 31

• The euro zone is to release what will be closely watched preliminary data on consumer inflation, as well as a report on the unemployment rate. In addition, Germany is to report on retail sales, while France is to publish data on consumer spending.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on personal income and expenditure as well as revised data on consumer sentiment and a report on business activity in the Chicago region.

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Attachment 44056

The drop in EUR/USD last Wednesday was significant, taking the pair below 1.15 to its lowest level since July 21 last year. That has opened the way for further losses, to 1.14 and beyond.

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Attachment 44100

The Australian Dollar was undermined by US Dollar strength and then a feisty bond market that over-reached. What is going to drive AUD/USD from here?

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Attachment 44981

The sudden spike in benchmark oil prices from $70 in early January to $110 at present has weighed on airline stocks including JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ: JBLU). Fuel costs account for a fifth of JetBlue’s operating expenses and the 60% rise is expected to make a short-term dent on the bottom line...

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Attachment 45135

The era of cheap money in the US is over after the Fed kickstarted its widely anticipated monetary tightening program by raising interest rates by 25bps this week. And there is a lot more to come.

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Attachment 45200

Food delivery player DoorDash stock surged by close to 40% over the last week (five trading days), trading at levels of around $107 on Monday. While tech stocks, in general, fared well over the last week, with the Nasdaq-100 soaring 9% as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by just a...

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Attachment 45269

Walgreens Boots Alliance (NYSE: WBA) is scheduled to report its fiscal Q2 2022 results on Thursday, March 31. We estimate Walgreens’ Valuation to be $53 per share, which is 13% above the current market price of $47.

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Attachment 45318

A report released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday showed the U.S. trade deficit was nearly unchanged in February, as imports and exports both increased. The Commerce Department said the trade deficit narrowed by less than $0.1 billion to $89.2 billion in February.

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Attachment 45417

The Australian Dollar made an 18-month low in January, eclipsing the November 2020 nadir of 0.6991 by a small margin. The weekly price is breaking Ichimoku cloud to below for the primary bearish reversal to 0.7165 and 0.7086 possible bearish targets.

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