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1 Attachment(s)
General analysis AUDUSD for 27.07.2022
Current dynamics
AUD/USD drops to 0.69450 ahead of major macroeconomic news on the pair
The pair AUD/USD, traditionally sensitive to the appetite for risk and dependent on it in direct relation, since the beginning of the trading week is in a downtrend, as a whole market is in an anxious condition, expecting the probable occurrence of economic recession. These concerns are dictated not only by steadily rising inflation and a consistent increase in the key rate of the U.S. Federal Reserve, but also negative forecasts about the prospects for economic growth in the whole world, including the Peoples Republic of China, heavily affected by prolonged restrictions caused by the epidemic situation around the pandemic of Covid-19. Another round of geopolitical tension in the world also affects the reduction of appetite for risk: the USA confronts China about its claims in the Taiwan issue, relations between Russia and European countries are complicated due to the news about a possible further reduction of gas supplies to the West.
Negative statistics were released in the USA, showing a consecutive three-month decline in consumer confidence (95.7 vs. previous 98.4), new home sales in June (0.59 million vs. previous 0.64 million).
In Australia, experts predict the worst performance since 1990, probably in annual terms, it will reach 6.2%, which will inevitably provoke an increase in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The main reasons for such a surge in inflation in Australia is the energy and agricultural crisis, the global rise in prices for energy and food products.
The meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held on August 2, the main agenda is expected to raise the main interest rate to 1.35%. Experts believe that the most probable decision is to increase the rate by 50 basis points, at the same time the ceiling of its growth at the moment is forecasted at 3.35%, as the situation does not look inclined to stabilization and the cycle of tightening of the monetary policy, probably, will not end soon. The nearest step in the pairs development is for the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which is scheduled for July 27. Analysts expect the key rate to be raised by 75 basis points at once this time.
Support and resistance levels
Alligator is sleeping: the moving averages are twisted, the instrument is flat. The nearest fractal below the alligators teeth (red line) is at 0.69340. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the gray area, showing a divergence, which is not a reliable signal to open a position.
✔️ Support levels: 0.69340, 0.69040, 0.68720.
✔️ Resistance levels: 0.70510, 0.70150, 0.69760.
Trading scenarios
✔️ Short positions should be opened at the 0.96800 with a target of 0.69040 and a stop loss at 0.69550. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.69760 with a target of 0.70150 and a stop-loss at the level of 0.69550. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Attachment 46276
More analytics on our website
Analytical department investizo.com
Disclaimer:*This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.
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1 Attachment(s)
General analysis USDJPY for 16.08.2022
Current DynamicsJapan's economy grew 0.5% in real terms from April to June. Consumption in Japan, which accounts for more than half of the country's GDP, grew on 1.1%, exports increased on 0.9% and imports increased on 0.7%. Builder confidence in the U.S. housing market fell harder than expected in August to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. Citizens of border areas in California started regularly traveling to Mexico for shopping products.GDP in Japan rose for the third quarter in a row. According to data released Aug. 15 by the country's Cabinet, Japan's economy grew 0.5% in real terms from April to June. Personal consumption, on which more than half of GDP accounts, increased on 1.1%.More people started going to restaurants and traveling after covid restrictions were removed in Japan. Capital spending increased on 1.4%. It is worth noting that in the previous quarter the same figure showed a decline from 0.3%.At the same time public investment in Japan also increased on 0.9% in real terms. In the previous quarter there was a decrease by 3.2%. Exports increased on 0.9%, and imports - on 0.7%.Even though Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.2%, which is worse than economists' expectations for 2.7%, Minister Daishiro Yamagiwa, who is in charge of economic recovery, said that Japan's economy is gradually recovering.Meanwhile in the U.S., builder confidence in the housing market fell in August to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. High inflation and rising borrowing costs have affected the downturn. The Wells Fargo index of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) in the United States, which measures the dynamics of the single-family housing market, fell for the eighth straight month and dropped to 49, which is the worst reading for the housing market since the financial crisis of 2008.Along with that, residents of California's border areas have started regularly traveling to Mexico for shopping products. For example, gasoline in Mexico for $1.24 cheaper than in California; milk is twice cheaper. Sellers and supermarkets in Tijuana are seeing a 20-30% increase of U.S. shoppers.Against the backdrop of declining GDP in the U.S. for the second quarter in a row, Japan's economy looks much better off. Low key interest rates and growing imports exports indicate the economy is recovering even though energy resources are expensive.
The USD/JPY tested the 38.2 Fibonacci level, but failed to consolidate near it and went back to the 50.0 Fibonacci level. Trend is descending. The RSI oscillator is in the lower half near 50.
Support and resistance levels
✔️ Support levels: 135.57, 134.43, 133.72, 133.15
✔️ Resistance levels: 132.57, 131.86, 130.70
Trading scenarios
✔️ Short positions can be opened below the level of 132.57 with a target of 131.86 and a stop loss of 133.72 : Implementation period: 1-3 days
✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 133.72 with a target of 134.43 and a stop loss of 133.15 : Implementation period: 1-3 days
Attachment 46379
More analytics on our website
Analytical department investizo.com
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.
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3 Attachment(s)
Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD
EUR/USD started the week with a decline to $1.09750 amid disappointing German retail sales data and mixed Eurozone economic data.
In terms of Eurozone data, Monday saw the release of July's harmonized consumer price index, which rose 5.5% year-on-year, as well as a flash GDP figure of 0.3% QoQ and 0.6% YoY. Despite a 1.6% y/y increase in German retail sales in June, the monthly figure fell to -0.8%. The ECB, raising interest rates, added 25 basis points to 4.25%, suggesting a pause in interest rate hikes in September as signs of weakening inflation and recession fears emerge. The media's interpretation of today's PMI, especially its sub-components - prices, employment and new orders - could affect market sentiment.
Attachment 47167
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
Gold is going through a volatile period marked by significant fluctuations and economic events that have affected its price and demand. XAU/USD is currently trading at 1949.50 after an upward correction.
One of the main catalysts for the rise in gold prices was the unexpected downgrade of the US credit rating by Fitch Ratings from AAA to AA+. The move was attributed to concerns over the country's slowing financial growth and increasing government debt over the next three years. While the previous downgrade sent the market into turmoil, this time the initial reaction was relatively calm, but experts continue to monitor the situation. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen disagreed with the decision, calling it "arbitrary," and this disagreement has raised concerns about the U.S. debt ceiling crisis. The downgrade led to a drop in confidence in the economy, prompting investors to rush to gold, considered a safe-haven asset. This has led to an increase in demand, reflecting gold's historical role as a preferred investment during periods of economic uncertainty and stress.
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Fundamental analysis of USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair is correcting after a slight decline and is trading at 143.340 as Japanese authorities took steps to defend the currency. This reaction is the result of cautious optimism in the markets and a weaker US dollar amid upcoming US economic data and changes in the dynamics of bond yields.
The Bank of Japan expanded the ceiling on the allowed rate on 10-year Japanese government bonds from 0.5% to 1.0%. The move pushed JGB yields to their highest levels in a decade, and to control the volatility of the Japanese yen, the BOJ announced unscheduled purchases of 5- and 10-year bonds. Japanese Governor Hirokazu Matsuno expressed confidence in the BOJ's strategy and remained vigilant against currency fluctuations.
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
XAU/USD prices are trading in a narrow range at 1936.00 ahead of important macroeconomic data on the US economy.While the US dollar reached a four-week high and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries reached its highest level since November last year, XAU/USD is about to hit a three-week low. This situation makes gold more expensive for those who trade in other currencies and puts pressure on gold, which is fraught with the risk of breaking the support level of 1916.00.
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
XAU/USD is currently in swing territory, trading at 1937.00 as traders ponder the potential impact of U.S. labor market trends and upcoming inflation data on the direction of U.S. monetary policy. While a weaker dollar and lower bond yields have supported the precious metal, the way forward remains unclear.
Current market conditions have been driven primarily by slowing US job growth, which has weakened the dollar and bond yields, and contributed to gold's rally last Friday. The U.S. jobs report for July showed slower than expected job growth, indicating that the labor market may be stabilizing. This suggested that the recent Fed rate hike could be the last in an ongoing tightening cycle. However, strong wage growth and a declining unemployment rate suggest that the labor market remains tight, providing an opportunity to assess the Fed's future interest rate decisions. In light of these mixed signals from the labor market, attention now turns to the upcoming consumer price index (CPI) data due on Wednesday. This data will be key in determining whether further rate hikes are needed to curb inflation. If interest rates rise, gold, traditionally a hedge against inflation, could lose its appeal.
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Fundamental analysis of WTI
WTI crude oil price is hovering at 82.35, pointing to concerns about a drop in Chinese oil demand following news on trade and inflation, as China is the largest oil consumer. These concerns were heightened when China's crude oil imports fell 18.8% in July. However, there is a positive side to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's monthly report. With GDP growth forecast for 2023 rising from 1.5% to 1.9% and crude oil prices rising since June, largely due to a prolonged voluntary production cut in Saudi Arabia and rising global demand, this is an optimistic sign. This optimism is also supported by Saudi Arabia's recent announcement to extend its voluntary oil production cuts and Russia's plan to cut oil exports in September.
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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD
EUR/USD rose slightly and is trading at 1.09960. The US CPI report led to an unpredictable development: despite a lower than expected core inflation reading, core inflation remained flat, limiting further upside.
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Fundamental analysis of GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.26900, recovering from a one and a half month low as traders await the release of important economic data from the UK and the US. This small rally comes despite a cautious atmosphere in global markets and uncertainty surrounding major risk events.
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
Gold prices rose, recovering from their lowest levels since late June, amid rising expectations of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. This rally in gold prices was supported by the emergence of cautious optimism in the market. The main contributing factors are expectations of further stimulus packages from China and the likelihood that the Fed will end the tightening cycle based on recent conflicting US data indicators. In addition, the recent passivity of major central banks appears to signal the end of the rate hike cycle. These moves have created a safety net for XAU/USD, especially given China's willingness to continue stimulus and India's economic measures. Despite this, the day before, gold prices were dragged to multi-day lows by strong US retail sales, data from China and US Treasury yields. The XAU/USD pair is also under pressure due to weakness in risk assets such as stocks, bonds and other commodities.
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Fundamental analysis of GBP/USD
Against the backdrop of a busy economic calendar, the GBP/USD pair is showing notable fluctuations. UK retail sales data for July showed a stronger-than-expected decline of 1.2%. On a year-on-year basis, retail sales fell 3.2%, contrasting with June's 1.6% decline, with core retail sales reflecting a similar downward trend. A number of factors, including rainy weather, higher cost of living and rising food prices, contributed to these low sales numbers. Lower retail sales may reduce the need for the Bank of England to tightly manage inflation. Rising interest rates and the current inflationary environment have led to lower consumer spending, which may ease demand-driven inflationary pressures. The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% for the month, ahead of market expectations. The core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as oil and food, presents a worrying picture of lingering inflation in the UK, which could prompt the Bank of England to raise rates further.
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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair started the new week confidently, reaching the level of 1.09200, creating prerequisites for optimism in the European currency markets.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane recently stated that the Eurozone can avoid a prolonged recession. This sentiment has led to a rise in the single currency, especially as the German yield curve begins to tighten, suggesting that the ECB may adjust its policy. At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar provided support to the EUR/USD pair. The US Dollar Index fell to 103.130, but the resilience of the US economy suggests the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year, which could offset the sharp fall in the US Dollar.
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
After stabilizing around the key level of 1900.00, gold prices rebounded slightly to trade at 1903.50. This shift was driven by a decline in the US Dollar Index from a two-month high and a temporary slowdown in US Treasury yields, which recently hit a 16-year high. This allowed for some recovery to take place.
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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD
On Thursday, EUR/USD resumed its uptrend for the second day in a row, trading near 1.08620. Much of Wednesday's gains were driven by weak US PMI data. Economic data from the eurozone was worrisome as the PMI for August fell to 47.0, below the forecast of 48.5. In eurozone leader Germany, the core PMI also fell to 44.7, well below market expectations of 48.3. Meanwhile, France's private sector contracted in the third quarter. In particular, confidence in the French economy fell sharply and there was considerable pessimism in the manufacturing sector.
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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair continues to decline, trading at 1.07730. This behavior of the pair was influenced by such factors as the expectation of Fed Chairman Powell's speech and disappointing US economic indicators.
On Friday, data on the German economy takes center stage, focusing on the country's GDP and business climate index. After disappointing PMI data for August, market participants are preparing for potentially gloomier news. Germany's economy is forecast to contract by 0.2% year-on-year in the second quarter and remain flat in the next quarter. Notably, a quarterly contraction could have a significant impact on the market, which would also make the European Central Bank cautious. The business climate index is forecast to fall to 86.7 from a previous reading of 87.3, although this data could be overshadowed by GDP figures. While the focus remains on the state of the German economy, investors will be keeping a close eye on ECB statements, particularly the speech by its president Christine Lagarde, which is scheduled for today. Recent poor PMI results in the eurozone have cooled expectations for an ECB rate hike in September. Any hawkish remarks could revive buying interest.
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
Gold prices started the week trading flat at 1916.00.Factors such as low Treasury yields and US dollar strength, despite hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on interest rates during the year at a conference in Jackson Hole, contributed to gold's resilience. In his comments, Powell pointed to the strength of the US economy and raised the possibility of a rate hike amid growing concerns about inflation. However, the market reaction was somewhat subdued, suggesting that his views were in line with traders' expectations. Given the current rate of inflation and the continued strength of the US economy, a rate hike could come as early as November. Loretta Mester of the FRB Cleveland supported this view, saying that an interest rate hike after a period of relative equilibrium is possible.
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Fundamental analysis of WTI
Oil prices rose on Wednesday for several reasons. The key driver of the rise was a significant decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, as evidenced by a weekly decline of 11.5 million barrels, which peaked on August 25. The sharp drop was the largest since September 2016 and exceeded market expectations, signaling strong demand for oil. The decline in inventories underscores the challenges of replenishing supply and signals growing demand for energy. Another reason for high prices is the threat of Hurricane Idalia in the Gulf of Mexico. Current forecasts suggest the hurricane could move eastward and bypass major sources of oil, but its very presence could lead to potential supply chain disruptions in the region. The Gulf is an integral part of U.S. oil production, accounting for nearly 15% of U.S. oil production. This environmental uncertainty certainly underscores the unpredictable nature of the oil industry.
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
Gold prices (XAU/USD) are showing strength, trading at 1943.70, and have recently reached a high since early August, supported by a number of factors, including a weaker US Dollar on speculation over future Federal Reserve decisions. Over the past few days, the US Dollar Index has pared gains, consolidating at 104.05, amid mixed data on the US economy that suggests the Federal Reserve may maintain its current interest rate policy at its next meeting in September. In addition, a series of economic measures aimed at stimulating the economy of China, a global powerhouse and one of the largest consumers of gold, pushed the XAU/USD exchange rate higher. Notable measures include the government's efforts to revitalize the private sector, as well as significant adjustments such as the People's Bank of China's reduction in the required reserve ratio. In addition, some Chinese banks have adjusted RMB deposit rates. The disappointing performance of US Treasury yields over the past few weeks has contributed to gold prices, especially as the XAU/USD pair remains steady above key technical support levels. Despite the recent US dollar rally, this momentum appears to be waning, which indirectly boosts gold's appeal. However, the prospect of further rate hikes later this year could limit the dollar's decline and thus limit gold's upside.
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Fundamental analysis of WTI
Benchmark US crude oil WTI - currently trading around 86.70. The recent strengthening of prices is due to a number of factors, both domestic and global. According to preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute, U.S. oil inventories declined by 5.5 million barrels in the week ending September 1. This figure indicates supply constraints. Globally, major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia played a key role in influencing the trajectory of WTI. Both countries have decided to extend voluntary oil supply cuts until the end of 2023. Saudi Arabia is expected to cut production by 1 million bpd in the last quarter of 2023. On the other hand, Russia has pledged to cut production by 300,000 bpd. It is important to note that this reduction will be assessed on a monthly basis depending on changes in market conditions. Under the influence of these factors, oil futures contracts rose. With quotes trading near a nine-month high, market sentiment indicates that a short-term supply cut is imminent.
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Fundamental analysis of WTI
US benchmark WTI crude oil - currently trading around 86.10. Oil prices are showing signs of a correction, especially as WTI crude has just bounced off an impressive 10-month high. Despite significant voluntary supply cuts from heavyweights such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, oil prices remained bearish. A strengthening US dollar and concerns over China's inconsistent economic recovery are the main potential factors dampening oil price gains. As the world's largest oil importer, China plays an important role in determining global oil demand. Interestingly, despite concerns about the state of the economy, China still reported a 30.9% increase in crude oil imports last month. However, the data for August does not look as optimistic, showing a decline in exports and imports. This is likely due to macroeconomic concerns related to weak domestic consumer spending.
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
Gold prices remained cautious on Tuesday, trading around 1919.70 as traders' attention focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data, which serves as an indicator for investors and future interest rate actions by the Federal Reserve, which hinted at further policy tightening. While the recent decline in the dollar has had a small impact on gold, making it a more attractive option for traders in other currencies, rising Treasury bond yields have limited that impact somewhat. The key to traders' strategy lies in the US consumer price index data released on Wednesday. It is considered by many to be an important indicator in determining the Fed's interest rate path in the coming months. Market rumors suggest that another interest rate hike is possible this year. The CME FedWatch tool gives a 93% probability that the Fed will maintain its current stance in September. However, between now and November, the probability of a rate hike is 41%. While the Fed is hesitant to significantly raise interest rates, it appears that the agency has yet to decide on its strategy. Gold's rise depends on a number of factors: a decrease in the Fed's aggressiveness, a drop in the dollar index and Treasury yields. However, until CPI data is released, the market is expected to remain inactive. CPI results equal to or higher than forecasts could reduce gold's upward momentum in the near term.
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
Gold is currently in a flurry of volatility, fluctuating under the influence of various macroeconomic indicators and general market sentiment. The gold price is fluctuating around the 1909.80 mark and is sensitive to a number of upcoming global economic indicators and decisions. One of the major factors affecting its price is the outlook for US inflation data, which plays an important role in shaping Federal Reserve policy.
Attachment 47179
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
The cost of gold continues its consistent decline and is trading at 1907.00. Interestingly, this pullback occurred against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar and 10-year Treasury bond yields, which usually support gold prices. The decline in gold prices is attributed to the latest US inflation data, which points to the possibility that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate adjustments next week. Digging deeper into these numbers, the Labor Department found that U.S. core inflation rose at an annualized rate at its lowest in nearly two years, hinting at the possibility that the Fed may pause interest rate hikes. In contrast, August marked the largest increase in U.S. consumer prices in 14 months, with a significant contribution from a sharp rise in gasoline prices. With such conflicting indicators, the market faces uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate direction in 2024, which has a significant impact on gold's volatility. Despite gold's historical appeal as a safe haven, the world's largest exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, saw its holdings fall 0.3%. This slowdown, reflecting falling demand, coincided with a strengthening US dollar, reinforced by inflation data. For investors trading in other currencies, the strong dollar drove up the price of gold. However, while the CPI data was largely in line with market forecasts, it suggested that the Federal Open Market Committee may maintain current levels, which would provide temporary support to prices. Given recent economic developments, market forecasts suggest that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting. Rising interest rates traditionally increase the attractiveness of US Treasuries, making them preferable to underperforming assets such as gold. As a result, precious metals investors are shifting their concerns from inflation to the opportunity cost of owning gold in a rising interest rate environment. On the contrary, during Thursday's Asian session after the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index data, gold showed a slight recovery and consolidated at 1910.00.
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Fundamental analysis of WTI
WTI crude oil prices are trending higher and have reached their highest level since November 2022 at 90.57. This increase is due to a number of factors pointing to the prospect of higher oil prices in the near future. Chief among these factors is China's strong economic performance. Industrial production and retail sales figures for August were better than expected, indicating a consistent recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. This strong economic performance complements China's record refinery throughput, which reached 64.69 million tons in August, up 20% year-on-year. This increase can be attributed to high tariffs imposed during the summer tourist season and favorable profit margins on exports to other Asian consumers. Major oil producing countries such as Russia and Saudi Arabia have decided to cut production. Such measures have raised fears of a looming supply shortage, especially in light of last month's OPEC+ resolution and the International Energy Agency's forecast of a market deficit throughout the fourth quarter as Saudi Arabia and Russia extend oil production cuts. Looking ahead, Saudi Arabia's oil production is expected to be at 1.3 million barrels per day during the period. Underpinning this sentiment, OPEC is optimistic about Chinese oil demand through 2023 and forecasts significant growth in global oil demand in 2023 and 2024.
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
Gold (XAU/USD) is trending higher and is trading at 1928.50. This rally has been boosted by December gold futures, which rose by 4.70 USD. This uptrend coincides with the weak sentiment in Asian equities, while precious metals are being strengthened by a range of global factors. The US Federal Reserve's next monetary policy meeting remains a top priority. Most expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged, but market speculation still points to the possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike in November or December. However, the resilience of the U.S. labor market, controlled inflation and rapid economic growth paint a picture in which the Fed could signal a soft landing for the economy. At the same time, the recent depreciation of the dollar based on recent US data has made gold more accessible to those trading in alternative currencies, making spot gold significantly more expensive each week.
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Fundamental analysis of WTI
WTI crude oil prices continued their strong upward trend for the fourth consecutive day, trading at 91.20. This rise is likely due to a combination of factors: a significant decline in US shale oil production and continued supply cuts initiated by Saudi Arabia and Russia. US oil production is forecast to end October at 9.4 million bpd, the lowest since May 2023. The figure is boosted by promises from Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend production cuts of 1.3 million bpd through the end of 2023. There could be a shortage in the market. However, the future of the oil market has many conflicting opinions. The market has emphasized resilience and minimized the idea that oil demand is about to peak. This optimism is reflected in OPEC's forecast that demand will reach 102.1 million barrels per day this year, a more positive outlook than that of the International Energy Agency.
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
On Wednesday, gold prices are holding near 1930.00.Public opinion believes that the Fed will maintain current interest rates, but concerns are growing about the possibility of an interest rate hike later this year. Treasury yields remain stubbornly high, suggesting that the market expects a hawkish but passive stance from the Fed. The complexity of the outlook is compounded by rising oil prices and comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who emphasized the need to adjust U.S. economic growth and potential interest rates to achieve the inflation target. This economic situation suggests that interest rates may continue to rise over time. The Fed's tightening stance could put downward pressure on gold prices, especially in light of recent U.S. economic data releases.
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Fundamental analysis of WTI
US WTI crude oil prices declined on Monday, mainly due to the Fed's stance making oil markets wary, as evidenced by the drop in oil contracts last week after a three-week rise. These changes are mainly due to concerns about oil demand in the face of possible interest rate hikes.
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
XAU/USD prices declined on Tuesday, dropping to the 1910.50 support level mainly due to the strengthening US dollar, which recently hit its highest level in 2023, and rising US Treasury yields.
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
The value of gold (XAU/USD) has been trending lower of late, trading at 1897.10, and this decline has been exacerbated by the continued strength of the US dollar (USD) for the first time in 10 months.
The dollar's strong performance was in response to the Federal Reserve's warning that interest rates could remain high for an extended period. The move was driven by market expectations that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates, especially with inflation exceeding the Fed's 2% target. Inflation concerns were underscored by statements from officials such as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who argued that inflation above a certain threshold posed a greater threat than monetary policy measures.
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Fundamental analysis of WTI
Oil prices began consolidating at 89.65 this week, reversing the previous Friday's decline, thanks in part to avoiding a U.S. government shutdown. Prices for these benchmarks rose nearly 30% in the third quarter, helped by an expected supply shortage in the fourth quarter and prolonged supply cuts from countries such as Russia and Saudi Arabia. In particular, according to inside information, the OPEC+ group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and its allies, is expected to stick to its current policy of cutting oil production. Despite global supply issues, U.S. oil production is nearing pre-pandemic highs. U.S. fossil fuel production is rising to fill the demand gap created by long-term production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Texas, the largest producer of shale oil, saw record production of 5.6 million barrels per day in July.
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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD shows a bullish trend supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions, economic indicators and market expectations. Gold prices remain strong, holding above $2025 and near $2060/oz, reflecting its dual role as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset. Rising international tensions, especially the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas and the US military campaign in Yemen, have reinforced this trend. This geopolitical crisis is forcing investors to choose safe-haven assets, thereby boosting gold prices.
Attachment 47192
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Fundamental analysis of WTI
The WTI crude oil market is currently operating in a challenging environment influenced by strong OPEC demand forecasts, geopolitical risks, US inventory differentials, monetary conditions, production changes and alternative views on future oil demand.
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The recent gold price dynamics reflects the complex interplay between economic indicators and market sentiment: the price moves in response to changes in the US economic indicators and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
After a strong break of the 2000.00 support level and a further decline to 1984.20, gold prices rose on the back of a sharp fall in US retail sales in January, the largest monthly decline since February 2023, and a drop in jobless claims, a sign that the labor market is strong, reflecting a robust economy. These factors, along with a weaker dollar and falling government bond yields, are making gold more attractive to international investors.
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Fundamental analysis GBPUSD for 21.02.2024
Attachment 47195
The current analysis of GBP/USD shows that the price movement has no clear direction, as economic conditions in the US and UK show uncertainty, as do expectations related to central bank policies and economic data releases.
Sterling failed to hold gains despite hitting a weekly high near 1.26800, which was particularly influenced by comments from Bank of England officials. Governor Andrew Bailey said market expectations for a rate cut were not "unreasonable" and pointed to signs of easing price pressures, but did not say when or how much policy adjustments would be made. Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent and Policy Director Swati Dhingra also attended the meeting, emphasizing the shift in focus from the scope to duration of restrictive monetary policy and warning of the negative effects of high interest rates on the economy. Analysts argue that interest rate cuts are urgently needed to avoid long-term economic damage, but concerns remain about the impact of continued tight monetary policy on UK economic growth.
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Fundamental analysis WTI for 26.02.2024
While the global oil market is under pressure and uncertainty, the price of WTI crude oil fell and reached 76.00.
The main reason for this fall is the increase in interest rates around the world, which limits economic activity and, in turn, reduces oil consumption and decreases demand. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and hawkish comments from Fed officials point to concerns about continued inflationary pressures, lower short-term interest rates and the need to keep debt payments on hold. These ideas traditionally and naturally lead to lower oil prices.
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Daily Market Review. 01.03.2024 USD/CHF
https://youtu.be/iI1iRck3yio
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