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Date : 29th March 2022.
Market Update – March 29 – Yields in focus, Oil down again, TESLA rallies.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
USD holds gains (USDJPY broke 125.00) and Treasury market fell again with US Treasury 5-to-30-yr yield curve remaining inverted suggesting economic slowdown & possible recession. US 10-yr slips back under 2.5%. Oil markets slumped (-1.0%) again on worries from Shanghai lockdown. US stocks rallied (NASDAQ +1.71%) growth stocks (TESLA +8%) gained as Banks & Energy stocks (Exxon -2.81%) fell. Asian markets higher (Nikkei & ASX +0.8%) except Chinese stocks.
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BoE’s Bailey warned of a worse energy crisis than in the 70s, & highlighted that the BoE had already softened its rate guidance, even as it hiked rates again and flagged the chance of further tightening. Russian & Ukrainian negotiators meet in Istanbul later today. Limited expectations. Israel/Arab summit talked of united front to confront Iran. Biden proposed $5.79 trillion budget for next year increasing spending on Defence & raising taxes on wealthy. UK Met. Police to issue “Partygate” fines “imminently”.
Overnight – AUD Retail Sales better than expected (1.8% vs 0.9% & 1.8%)) & JPY Unemployment better (2.7% vs 2.8% & 2.8%) German GfK Consumer confidence missed -15.5 vs -14.6 & -8.1 last time).
* USD (USDIndex 99.00). Rallied to top at 99.35 yesterday.
* US Yields 10-yr up to 2.53% new 3-yr highs yesterday, now down to 2.483%
* Equities – USA500 +32.01 (+0.71%) 4575. US500 FUTS now at 4572 now. TSLA suggested another stock split and rallied over 8.0%, AMC up over +45% as the meme stocks raised their heads again.
* USOil – Fell again (over 1.1%) to $102.80 yesterday, but has recovered $105.00.
* Gold – slipped to $1916 yesterday from Friday’s close $1955. Back to $1922 now.
* Bitcoin holds onto gains over 45K to top at 48.1K, yesterday, back to 47.5k now.
* FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1000, now after 1.0950 test yesterday, USDJPY over 125.00 & new 7-yr highs back to 123.40 now as JP Government signals worries over weak Yen. Cable back to 1.3066 yesterday, recovered 1.3100 now.
European Open-The June 10-year Bund future is down 33 ticks, while in cash markets the 2-year Treasury yield is up 2.8 bp. Curve flattening continues as markets fret about the risk that aggressive central bank action will sap demand. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.9% and 0.6% respectively, US futures are also slightly higher, after a largely positive session across Asia, with hopes of progress in scheduled peace talks between Russia and Ukraine this week helping to underpin confidence.
Today – US JOLTS, CB Consumer Confidence & Case-Schiller Housing Index. Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Bostic & Harker, ECB’s Kazimir. EARNINGS – Micron & Lululemon.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.34%) BOJ & Japanese Government raise concerns over weak Yen, following break of 125.00. MAs turned lower, MACD signal line & histogram now cooling, RSI 49.55, OB but rising, H1 ATR 0.403, Daily ATR 1.123.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 30th March 2022.
Market Update – March 30 – USD Dips, Stocks Rally, Yen Recovers.
https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...ket-update.png
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
USD & Yields dipped and Stocks & Euro rallied (NASDAQ 1.84%) following Russia-Ukraine negotiations. US data (Case-Schiller Housing Index, JOLTS & Consumer Confidence) all stronger than expected adding to high inflation and tight jobs market scenario. Yen recovered on chatter of BOJ intervention, and Oil & Gold dipped before recovering. The yield curve extended it’s inversion as 10-yr yields dipped under 2.0% before lifting. Asian markets followed US higher (Nikkei & ASX +1.0%, Shanghai 1.51%).
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Overnight – JPY Retail Sales missed (-0.8%% vs -0.3% & 1.1%) German regional CPI coming in hotter than expected (i.e. North Rhine Westphalia March CPI +7.6% vs +5.3%).
* USD (USDIndex 98.16). Dipped further to 98.00 zone before recovering.
* US Yields 10-yr closed at 2.40% and under 2.0% overnight, now back to 2.36%
* Equities – USA500 +56.01 (+1.23%) 4631. US500 FUTS 4572 now. APPLE rose for an 11th consecutive day (+1.91%), HOOD up over +24% following AMC rally (+45%) the day before and GME dropped -5.11% 45% as the meme stocks raised their heads again.
* USOil – Fell again (over 1.0%) to $98.65 yesterday, but has recovered to $107.00.
* Gold – slipped to $1890 yesterday from Friday’s close at $1955. Back to $1925 now.
* Bitcoin holds onto gains over 45K to top at 48.1K, yesterday, back to 47.4k now.
* FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1136 now after 1.0950 test Monday, USDJPY over 125.00 & new 7-yr highs Monday back to 122.00 now as JP Government signals worries over weak Yen. Cable back to 1.3120 now.
European Open-The June 10-year Bund future is up 43 ticks, US futures are also higher, DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.1% and up 0.1% respectively, as the initial euphoria over the positive headlines on the progress of Russia-Ukraine peace talks has faded. It still seems a long way to a final agreement and oil prices have backed up from lows under $100 seen in the wake of the initial headlines on the talks yesterday. Meanwhile concern that aggressive central bank action will sap the recovery is lingering. The 2-10 year part of the U.S. Treasury curve inverted yesterday for the first time since 2019, but while the 2-year has dropped back again since, 3 and 5 year rates are still holding above the 10 year. ECB chief economist Lane was out yesterday repeating that a rate hike in Q4 is not cast in stone and that rate moves will be data dependent.
Today – German CPI Prelim, US ADP & GDP (Final/Q4), Speeches from Fed’s Barkin, Bostic & George, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Broadbent.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.76%) Fear of BOJ intervention lifted YEN pairs. Next support 121.00 MAs turned lower, MACD signal line & histogram now below 0 line and cooling, RSI 36, H1 ATR 0.310, Daily ATR 1.31.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 31st March 2022.
Market Update – March 31 – Volatile Q1 Comes to a Conclusion.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
USD, Yields & Stocks (NASDAQ -1.21%) all dipped. Oil tanked over -6% – President Biden suggested releasing 180 mln barrels from US Strategic Reserve & OPEC stand firm on no production increases. Euro & Yen continued recovery, Gold lifted on weaker USD. Yield curve extended it’s inversion. ADP in-line at 455K ahead of NFP tomorrow, but Final Q4 GDP slipped a tick to 6.9% and German Inflation much hotter (7.3%) than expected, the highest since 1981 when the German bank rate was 11.4% while the ECB hangs on to 0% currently. Asian markets traded cautiously at month-end following the weak lead from the US.
Overnight – Chinese PMIs sink in contraction for first time since 2020 – Manu. 49.5 vs. 49.9 & Services 48.4 vs. 53.2. AUD Building Approvals & JPY Housing Starts both big beats. German Retail Sales fell significantly (0.3% vs 1.4%) UK Final Q4 GDP beats at 1.3% vs 1.0% (2021 final reading 6.6%) House Price Inflation much higher than expected (1.1% vs 0.5%).
* USD (USDIndex 97.88). Dipped further to test 97.70 yesterday before recovering.
* US Yields 10-yr closed at 2.358% , now back to 2.349%.
* Equities – USA500 -29.15 (–0.63%) at 4602. US500 FUTS 4602 now too from 4622. APPLE (-0.66%) broke 11-day run looks to move into Fin. Services, use Chinese chips, HOOD –8.49% & AMC –12.77% continue meme stock volatility. Lululemon (+9.58%) following good Earnings this week.
* USOil – Touched $100.65 after Biden news broke, but has recovered to $102.40.
* Gold – rallied to $1937 yesterday, before falling back to $1922 now.
* Bitcoin holds onto gains over 45K to trade at 47.0k now.
* FX markets – EURUSD rallied to 1.1185 earlier, back to test 1.1165 now, USDJPY holds at 122.00 now from 121.30 lows yesterday as BOJ continue to defend JGB yield ceiling. Cable back to 1.3130 now.
European Open-The June 10-year Bund future is down -15 ticks at 157.01, US futures are little changed. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are fractionally higher.
Today – Month & Quarter End Balancing, German Unemployment, US Weekly Claims, PCE Price Index, OPEC+ Meeting, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Lane & de Guindos.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.44%) Continues to rally off 4.5 year lows at 1.4535 on Monday. Next resistance 1.5000. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher but cooling, RSI 70 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0021, Daily ATR 0.152.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 1st April 2022.
Market Update – April 1 – USD & Treasuries Recover, Stocks Weaker again.
https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...ket-update.png
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
* USD & Treasuries recovered as Yields & Stocks (NASDAQ -1.54%) fell. US markets had their worst Quarter in 2 years.
* USOil slipped (–4%) & under $100 as President Biden confirmed releasing 180 mln barrels from US Strategic Reserve over the next 6-months & OPEC confirm no production increases.
* Yield curve extended it’s inversion.
Russia threatens Europe (again) “pay in Roubles or we’ll cut off the Gas”.
Core PCE: in-line at 0.4%, Weekly Claims missed at 202K vs 195k but still below normal levels, and Chicago PMI’s surprised significantly to the upside (62.9 vs 56.3) Asian markets traded cautiously following another weak US session, mixed data releases and an extension of the Shanghai lockdown.
Overnight-The June 10-year Bund future is down -15 ticks at 157.01, US futures are little changed. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are fractionally higher.
* USD (USDIndex 98.50). rallied from test of 97.70 yesterday.
* US Yields 10-yr closed at 2.32% , now back to 2.361%.
* Equities – USA500 -72.15 (1.57%) at 4530. US500 FUTS 4547. Banks & Technology stocks led the broadbased month end decline.
* USOil – Trades at $98.65 following Biden announcement. (Opened the week on Monday at 112.50.
* Gold – rallied to $1950 yesterday, before falling back to $1937 now.
* Bitcoin slips under the key 45K to trade at 44.7k now.
* FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1055 now from 1.1170 yesterday. USDJPY holds at 122.40 now from 121.30 lows again yesterday as BOJ continue to defend JGB yield ceiling. Cable back to 1.3120 now.
European Open – The German 10-year rate is up 3.2 bp at 0.575%, alongside a 4.1 bp rise in the U.S. Treasury yield. However, while U.S. Treasury futures are moving higher, led by a 0.5% rise in the NASDAQ, DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.1% and -0.05% respectively.
The uncertainty over what will happen to Russian gas exports to Europe is hanging over markets, amid fears that shortages will force producers to halt or throttle production. Germany’s Scholz tried to calm nerves over Putin’s announcement that payments will have to be made in Rubles, although whether Moscow’s proposal that payments in EUR will have to be paid into Gazprombank and then transferred into Rubles is a way forward remains to be seen. The war meanwhile drags on and while another round of video-talks between Ukraine and Russia are reportedly scheduled for today there is no sign of a breakthrough just yet. EZ inflation is going through the roof and today’s preliminary Eurozone HICP report is likely to look very ugly. ECB chief economist Lane has already laid the ground for an overshoot though, by turning dovish again and saying that the ECB must be ready to move in either direction in this situation.
Today – EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMIs, US Labour Market Report, ISM Manufacturing PMI, China-EU Summit, Ukraine-Russia negotiators to meet again, Speech from Fed’s Evans.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.57%) Continues to rally off 121.30 lows this week. Next resistance 123.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & over 0 line, RSI 61 & rising, H1 ATR 0.211, Daily ATR 1.310.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 6th April 2022.
Market Update – April 6 – Treasury yields soared & FOMC Minutes ahead.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
* USD & Treasury yields have been rising. Stock markets have been under pressure, hit by the surge in yields with the tech-heavy index (USA100) plunging -2.26% as selling picked up into the close.
* The market has priced in a lot of bearish elements, yields shot higher again on hawkish comments from Fed, RBA. Disappointing China PMI reports weighed on both bond and stock market sentiment.
* USOil up to $102.48 as West mulls further sanctions against Russia. – Saudi boosted prices by over by $2 per barrel in late March.
* US coal prices climbed over $100 a ton today for the first time in 13 years after the EU said it is mulling restricting coal imports from Russia.
* US Rates on the 5-, 7-, and 10-year maturities were up almost 17 bps to 2.7108%, 2.678%, and 2.565%, respectively. The bond was 13.5 bps higher at 2.596%, while the 2-year rose over 10 bps to 2.526%. The bear curve steepened to 4.8 bps, after having been inverted for the prior three sessions at -3 bps Monday and -8 bps Friday.
* USD (USDIndex 99.72) rallied from 98.80 yesterday.
* Equities – USA500 -72.15 (1.57%) at 4530. US500 FUTS 4547. Banks & Technology stocks led the broadbased month end decline.
* Gold – steady at $1920 low after 1947 high yesterday.
* Bitcoin closing the gap at 45370?
* FX markets – EURUSD dipped to 1.0883, USDJPY continued to struggle at 124.04, Cable back to 1.3120 now. AUD and NZD also remained supported as yields moved higher.
European Open – The German manufacturing orders came in much weaker than expected, with orders falling -2.2% m/m in February. The actual slump was a surprise that will add to concerns that the German manufacturing sector could be heading for recession as the spike in energy prices and supply chain disruptions hit Germany’s industrial core. Exports orders dropped -3.3% in February.
FOMC preview – The minutes should prove very interesting to the markets as they should provide details on the balance sheet run off. We’ll also read the various comments about the abrupt, hawkish pivot from the FOMC, although we already know that the threat of surging inflation and the likelihood that it would not prove as “transitory” as expected, along with the robust recovery and strength in the labor market, were the major factors that finally forced the Fed to shift into high gear by accelerating the pace of trimming accommodation and then eye aggressive rate hikes. The dot plot reflected the pivot, and Fedspeak since then has affirmed it. Governor Brainard’s comments Tuesday, in fact, indicated the Fed would announce the start of balance sheet reduction as soon as May. She also supported her colleagues’ views on the need for a larger and speedier pace of balance sheet runoff. We will look for details on that in the minutes. We suspect at a minimum the Fed will double the pace of that from the last cycle with $60 bln in Treasuries and $30 bln in MBS, although the still hot housing market could see a higher cap on MBS.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.37%) At 6-day highs and close to R2 at 0.9331. Next resistance 0.9376. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & over 0 line, RSI 77 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00087, Daily ATR 0.00617.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 11th April 2022.
Market Update – Stocks & Treasuries tank, Oil down again.
https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...ket-update.png
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Yields bid, Stocks sink, EUR recovers, Oil lower – Treasuries dived into close on Friday and are down again to start the week, and all other markets are taking a lead from the pronounced move. Official confirmed BOJ will maintain loose monetary policy.
* Stocks were mixed on Friday (NASDAQ -1.34%) weak in Asia (Covid & weak fixed income markets) & UK & European FUTS. down (-0.2 to 0.6%).
* Yields rally as curve steepens – US 10-yr now at 2.776%.
* EUR picked up after French Election result. USD bid elsewhere.
* USD bid especially vs. weaker JPY (over 125), AUD, CAD & NZD.
* Oil down 2% – after addition reserves released from EIA countries.
Pope calls on Russian & Ukraine leaders to observe Easter truce. Biden to meet Modi and call for no increases in Russian oil imports, Johnson met Zelenskiy in Kiev, Zelenskiy praised Scholz & Germany after meeting. Putin replaces top field General, focuses on Eastern Ukraine, reports he sees victory within 4-weeks.
Overnight – Chinese inflation leaps – CPI 1.5% vs 1.3% & 0.9% previously, PPI cools 8.3%vs. 8.1% & 8.8% previously. Weak UK GDP February m/m GDP +0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected, other industrial data also missed, pressures Sterling.
Week Ahead – The second week of April has some key data releases topped by the rate decision from the ECB, supported by decisions & outlooks from BOC & RBNZ. Global Inflation data from China, Germany, the UK & US, US Retail Sales data and Australian Jobs data will provide more guidance on the outlook. The week also the heralds the start of the Q1 Earnings Season with the major Wall Street banks all reporting.
* USDIndex rallied to new high 100.17 since May 2020 on Friday, trades at 99.80 now.
* US Yields 10-yr closed higher again at 2.713, up again now to 2.77%.
* Equities – USA500 -12 (-0.27%) at 4488. – US500 FUTS 4476. Technology stocks & Consumer Discretionary led decline, & Energy led value stocks higher. TWTR -3.75% (ahead of Musk declining role on the board).
* USOil – Trades at $95.90 following rally to $98.00 on Friday and dip to $93.78, on Thursday. Oil markets lost over 3% last week.
* Gold – gyrated from $1937 to $1950 on Friday, back to $1945 now.
* Bitcoin continued to decline from key 45k to trade at 42k support now.
* FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.0900 now from 1.0835 on Friday. USDJPY breaks key 125.00 to trade at 125.20 and Cable sinks back to test 1.3000 as USD bid continues.
European Open – European stocks up from early lows. European stock markets started lower, but have started to find a footing. DAX and FTSE 100 are still down -0.19% and -0.29% respectively, but the French CAC 40 is up 0.4%, against the background of easing election jitters after Macron managed to beat Le Pen in the first round of the presidential election yesterday. The two will now face each other in the final round on April 24, but with the result looking somewhat clearer than some polls had suggested French stocks are looking brighter this morning.
Today – Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Bostic and Evans.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.99%) Recovering EUR and weaker JPY combine to push pair from 134.35 lows on Friday to 136.60 now. Next resistance 137.00 MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher, RSI 79.50, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.254, Daily ATR 1.54.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 12th April 2022.
Market Update – April 12 – Yields & USD Drive On, Stocks, JPY & EUR Lower.
https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...7669197104.png
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Yields remain bid, supporting USD as Stocks sink. JPY & EUR remain weak. Oil recovers, Gold holds gains. –
* Stocks tanked (NASDAQ worst again -2.18%) Weak in Asia (Nikkei -1.72%) & UK & European FUTS. lower (0.2 to 0.6%).
* Yields rally as curve steepens – US 10-yr now at 2.824%.
* EUR fell again after minor rally following French Election result. USD bid elsewhere.
* USD bid especially vs. weaker JPY (over 125.50 ), AUD, CAD & NZD.
* Oil recovered from key support, up over $4/barrel as Shanghai eases some lockdowns.
Biden told Modi that buying Russian oil is not in India’s “interest” & will help. Macron & Le Pen go on Election Blitz, Morrisson kicks off Australian Election campaign. Austrian PM meets Putin for 90 mins. New populist PM in Pakistan raises the min. wage. Zelenskiy says tens of thousands have died in Mariupol.
Overnight – JPY PPI inflation beats – 9.5% vs. 9.2% & 9.7% previously. In line UK Wages & Unemployment with Claims lower. AUD big boost for Business Confidence (16 vs 13) and German HICP at 7.6%, levels last seen in the early 1980s.
* USDIndex rallied to test new high 100.17 , trades at 100.12 now.
* US Yields 10-yr closed higher again at 2.78, up again now to 2.824%.
* Equities – USA500 -75.75 (-1.69%) at 4412. – US500 FUTS 4393. Technology stocks & Consumer Discretionary led decline, TSLA -4.85%, NVDA -5.2% AT&T +7.46%
* USOil – Trades at $97.30 following a dip to $93.00, Shanghai eases some lockdowns.
* Gold – gyrated from $1969 to $1940, yesterday , back to $1958 now.
* Bitcoin continued to decline from key 45k to trade at 39.88k now.
* FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.0860 now from 1.0935 yesterday. USDJPY breaks key 125.50 to trade at 125.75 and Cable sinks back to test 1.3010 as USD bid continues.
European Open – The German 10-year Bund yield is up 1.5 bp at 0.82%, the 10-year Gilt rate has lifted 1.7 bp at1.86% in opening trade, alongside a 3.3 bp rise in the U.S. Treasury yield. Eurozone spreads, which narrowed yesterday, are mostly wider this morning, especially at the short end, and the US curve has flattened slightly, as the short end underperforms ahead of key US inflation data. Markets are nervous that a higher than expected figure could prompt the Fed to head for an even more aggressive tightening cycle than currently expected and in Europe, the high German inflation reading is putting pressure on the ECB ahead of Thursday’s meeting.
Today – US CPI, (1.2% m/m 8.4% y/y) – but watch the CORE figures for any sign of actual weakness. Speeches from Fed’s Barkin & Brainard.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.47%) Recovering from 4-day decline to below 0.6900 at 0.6893 earlier to 0.6935 now. Next resistance 0.6950 & 0.6970. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher but below 0, RSI 56.50 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00105, Daily ATR 0.00685.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 13th April 2022.
Market Update – April 13 – Inflation & Earnings come into focus.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Yields lost their bid, USD held onto gains, Stocks were lifted by the hot US CPI headline data, (new 40-yr high at 8.5%) only to close the day in the red as the CORE figure missed and suggested the top for inflation may be coming sooner than expected. JPY (weak data) & EUR (Putin saying talks at “dead-end”). NZD jumped as RBNZ raised rates by 50bp (largest in 22-yrs). Oil recovered $100, Gold moved higher again.
* Stocks closed marginally lower after strong start. Asia markets stronger (Nikkei +1.68%) & UK & European FUTS marginally higher
* Yields rally cooled, 10-yr from top at 2.836% to close at 2.727% & now at 2.738%.
* EUR fell again after Putin comments.
* USD holds bid, NZD broke 0.6900 briefly as RBNZ said they were not changing their outlook, but just bringing forward rate hike cycle.
* Oil continued to recover and holds over $100 – Shanghai lockdowns ease further but record levels of new COVID infections nationwide.
Biden said Russia has committed Genocide, (additional $750m military aid to Ukraine to come) Putin said Russia will achieve its aims in Ukraine and that talks “have again returned to a dead-end situation for us”. Johnson & Sunak refuse to resign after being fined by the London Met. Police for breaking lockdown rules. More fines to come potentially. Brainard, (Fed Vice Chair), Birkin & Bullard all agreed that aggressive rate hikes were required but disagree what happens afterwards. Brainard sees weaker inflation and a return to pre-pandemic conditions, Birkin & Bullard see inflation, particularly wage inflation, being “sticky” for much longer.
Overnight – JPY Machine Orders & Money Supply miss significantly (-9.8% vs.-1.5%). China Trade Balance (surplus) more than doubles, Exports beat, Imports surprisingly fall. UK Inflation at 30-yr high CPI, (7.0%) CORE (5.7%) RPI (9.0%) & PPI 19.2% – all stronger than expected.
* USDIndex rallied to test new high 100.42 , trades at 100.34 now.
* US Yields 10-yr closed lower at 2.727%, up again now to 2.824%.
* Equities – USA500 -15.08 (-0.34%) at 4397. (A breach of 4400) – US500 FUTS 4418. TWTR (-5.38%) – Earnings Season kicks off today.
* USOil – Trades at $100.30 following a rally to $102.00, Shanghai eases some lockdowns.
* Gold – held $1950 yesterday and tested next resistance at $1975, back to $1970 now.
* Bitcoin continued to decline from key 45k to test 39k zone, recovered to 40k now.
* FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.0810 earlier, (5-wk lows) now 1.0830. USDJPY breaks 126.00 to trade at 126.15 and Cable sinks back to test 1.2985 as USD bid continues and very hot inflation data weighs.
European Open – Asian stock markets mostly managed gains as markets digested US inflation data that weren’t quite as bad as feared, especially in the core reading. Mainland China bourses struggled though, as hope of easing virus restrictions faded and after trade data showed unexpected weakness in imports, which left the trade surplus higher than anticipated, but added to concern that the domestic economy is struggling with the official “No-Covid” policy. The CSI 300 is currently down -0.3%, the Hang Seng up 0.6%, however, with tech stocks recovering.
Today – US PPI, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, BoC Policy Announcement, IEA OMR, Earnings from BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.77%) Dipped to 1.5700 on RBNZ announcement, reversed quickly to test 1.5935 now. Next resistance 1.5970 & 1.6000. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & over 0, RSI 68 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00357, Daily ATR 0.01640.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 14th April 2022.
Market Update – April 14 – “Peak Inflation?” & Ms. Lagarde.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Yields stabilized lower, USD cooled significantly and Stocks bounced back. BOC added 50 bp to their base rate and warned of more to come. USDCAD sank from 1.2675 down to sub 1.2500. USDJPY hit a 20-year high over 126.00. US PPI lifted to all-time highs (11.2%) following 40-yr highs for CPI (8.5%) on Tuesday. All 13 measures of UK Inflation were higher than expected with CPI at 30-yr highs (7.0%) and a strong CORE (ex. Fuel & Food) at 5.7%, RPI 9.0% (important for wage settlements) and PPI 19.2%.
* Stocks higher (NASDAQ +2.0%) Asia markets stronger too (Nikkei +1.18%) & UK & European FUTS also higher
* Yields rally cooled further, 10-yr closed at 2.69% & now at 2.712%.
* USDIndex cooled from 100.50 highs & trades 99.60 now.
* Equities – USA500 +49 (+1.12%) at 4446. – US500 FUTS 4452. Delta Airlines (+6.21%), AAL (+10.62%). JPM (-3.22%) a miss for Trading volumes. Big Tech bounced (AMZN +3.15%)
* Oil & Gold continued to recover and hold over $103 & $1975 respectively.
* Bitcoin recovered from 39k zone on Tuesday to 41k now.
* FX markets – EURUSD recovered from 1.0808 lows (5-wk+ lows) to now 1.0915. USDJPY cooled from 126.30 20-yr high to trade at 125.40 and Cable recovered from 1.2972 lows to 1.3140 now.
Biden announced an additional $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine, (brings total to 2.5bn). Xi says sticking to tough COVID curbs will bring victory. Markets not convinced. PBOC rate cut imminent? Japan Fin Min. says country has not emerged from deflation, & 76% of Japanese business worried about the weak YEN damaging the economy. Finland & Sweden on brink of NATO membership. Sri Lanka about to default on debt, first of many low income nations?
Overnight – More peak inflation news ?? AUD job growth missed (17.9k vs 30.0k & 77.4k last time) & Unemployment rose (4.0% vs 3.9% & 3.9%). CHF PPI missed and UK House Inflation also slipped.
ECB Preview – Record high inflation and hawkish comments from some council members have left markets positioned for at least one rate hike from the ECB later in the year. However, with no sign that the war in Ukraine will be over any time soon and the sanctions against Russia already starting to cloud over the growth outlook, we suspect that chief economist Lane will want to keep a lid on tightening expectations today. Lane already warned against an “overreaction” to the surge in inflation and that the initial inflationary pressure from a supply shock “should decline over time”. He also highlighted the “significant risks to growth” from the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, while saying that “the best way that monetary policy can navigate this uncertainty is to emphasize the principles of optionality, gradualism and flexibility“. Lane is also keeping a close eye on spreads as the end of the PEPP program last month has kept peripheral vulnerable to bouts of risk aversion and even suggested that the PEPP program could be revived if necessary. Judging by ECB data released yesterday, the ECB has already blown much of the monthly APP purchases over the first two weeks of the month, clearly also in an attempt to keep a lid on yields and Lane will likely be arguing against an overly hawkish signal today that would further fuel rate hike speculation. That means the event risk is a more balanced statement than markets currently expect. – Action Economics
Today – US Weekly Claims, Retail Sales, Business Inventories & UoM Sentiment, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Harker & Mester, Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and UnitedHealth.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.50%) Recovered from 0.6756 lows following RBNZ announcement, to close at 0.6796, testing 0.6830 now. Next resistance 0.6850 & 0.6875. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & over 0, RSI 64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00099, Daily ATR 0.00703.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 15th April 2022.
Market Update – April 15 – Stocks Sink, Yields Rally, EUR & JPY Pressured.
https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...ket-update.png
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
USD & Yields rallied significantly, and Stocks sank into long Easter weekend. EURUSD tanked under 1.0800 after ECB confirmed QE is set to end in Q3, but Lagarde was cagey on the actual timing and on the prospect of rate hikes. USDJPY hit a new 20-yr high over 126.50. US Claims missed (185k vs 172K), but remain historically low. Retail Sales were better (+0.5% headline, +1.1% ex-autos & big net upward revisions). UoM Consumer Sentiment surprised to the upside (65.7 vs 59.1). Trade prices beat – record-high 4.5% for exports & 11-yr high of 2.6% for imports. All 4-big banks beat earnings expectations but profits fell and shares varied from Citi +1.55% to Wells Fargo -4.51%. Musk moved to buy Twitter, markets not convinced, but he has a “Plan B” if it fails apparently.
* Stocks lower (NASDAQ +2.14%) Asia markets weaker too (Nikkei -0.31%) with UK & Europe closed today & Monday.
* Yields moved significantly higher, 10-yr moved form 2.69% to close at 2.82%
* USDIndex rallied from lows at 99.50 to highs at 100.75 & trades 100.26 now.
* Equities – USA500 -54 (-1.21%) at 4392. – US500 FUTS closed at 4388. TWTR -1.68% ( +13% pre-market when news broke) TSLA -3.66%, APPL -3.00% NVDA -4.26%, AMD -4.79%.
* Oil & Gold continued to recover and hold over $105 & $1970 respectively.
* Bitcoin sank to 39k zone again from over 41k, trades at 40k now.
* FX markets – EURUSD has recovered 1.0800 from 1.0757 lows yesterday. USDJPY trades at new 20-yr highs at 125.60 and Cable tumbled a whole big number to 1.3050 from 1.3150 yesterday.
Overnight – Mester (hawk) – Job market is “very tight” & inflation is “very elevated”. Williams (centratist) a 50 bp rate increase is a “very reasonable option,” PBOC did not cut interest rates as had been broadly expected.
Today – French CPI in-line at +1.4% m/m. Empire State Manu. Index.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.65%) Continues to rally posting new 20-yr highs over 126.60. Next resistance 126.75 & 127.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 69 & rising, H1 ATR 0.151, Daily ATR 1.71.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
