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Date : 24th February 2022.
Market Update – February 24 – Stocks plummet, oil up as Russia attacks Ukraine.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Risk aversion has hit markets hard amid reports of a full blown attack by Russia on Ukraine, which has also lifted Brent clearly above the $100 per barrel mark. Ukraine declared a 30-day state of emergency, called up reservists and urged its citizens to leave Russia. More cyber attacks on government websites and banks and disinformation campaigns were seen as a prelude to war. Also, US officials said diplomacy with Russia was dead for now. That added to the gloom. Russia suspended movement of commercial vessels in Azov Sea. Von Der Leyen – EU Planning `Massive Sanctions’ on Russia.
Treasuries rallied and stock markets across Asia sold off as the world watches Ukraine. The US Treasury rate is down -12.3 bp at 1.868%, while the Nikkei has lost -1.8%, the ASX nearly 3% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 -3.1% and -2.3% respectively. Brent is trading at $102.19, the front end WTI future at $97.07 per barrel. Gold below $1949. USDRUB at 80.99.
* USD spikes (USDIndex 96.75)
* US Yields 10-year yield down to 1.868%.
* Equities – GER30 and UK100 futures are down more than 3.5% and 2% respectively, while USA500 was down 2.3% and USA100 fell 2.8%, putting the USDIndex on track toward confirming it is in a bear market.
* Reuters: “Closing down at least 20% from its Nov. 19 record high close of 16,057.437 points would confirm the Nasdaq has been in a bear market, according to a widely used definition. That would mark its first bear market since 2020, when the coronavirus outbreak crushed global financial markets.”
* USOil – spiked to $96.46, & UKOIL passed $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, adding to inflation worries.
* Gold – rallied over 2% as haven demand ebbed – below $1900.
* Bitcoin below $35,000 as, sell-off spread to cryptocurrency markets as well.
* FX markets – Yen benefited, while the Euro and to a lesser extent Sterling struggled. EURUSD at 1.1245, USDJPY drifted to 114.39, Cable breached 1.3485.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future has gained 182 ticks, outperforming versus US futures, which are up 119 ticks, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield has lifted off overnight lows, but is still down -10.9 bp on the day at 1.882%. Europe in particular is seen as vulnerable to the escalation of the situation because it could also potentially affect energy supplies, although a German economic institute yesterday suggested Germany could get through the winter even if Russia totally cuts off gas supplies. Meanwhile more sanctions on Russia’s economy are underway and for now the situation remains fluid, which will keep markets in defensive mode and heading for safety.
Today – Today’s data calendar includes US GDP, Jobless claims, PCE and speeches from ECB members and Fed Members.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDRUB (+6.42%) Spiked to 80.99 high. MAs now aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 72.88 & rising. H1 ATR 0.54430, Daily ATR 1.32211.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 25th February 2022.
Market Update – February 25 – Volatility was the only real winner!
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Stock market sentiment started to stabilise overnight after Wall Street closed up from session lows. US futures are in the red though, led by a 0.8% drop in the USA100, and as officials in Europe and the US announce stiff sanctions for Russia, traders are also mulling what that means for Europe. Higher energy prices clearly are one thing and Brent is still holding above the $100 per barrel mark this morning. Russia’s oil exports seem to have been spared for now, while allies blocking access of the Swift payment system is also a possibility should a further escalation of sanctions become necessary.
* USD settled lower below 97.00 (USDIndex 96.86).
* China’s PBOC made a large liquidity injection. China’s central bank injected net 290 billion yuan via seven-day reverse repo operations today. That is the largest amount since September 2020 and according to the PBOC is designed to keep liquidity stable over the month end. The wild ride in global stock markets may have contributed to the move as external pressures, including the rise in oil prices, will add to existing problems, including the slump in the property markets and Covid related restrictions. The combination will likely keep the PBOC on an easing path.
* The VIX slid back to the 28.50 region after spiking to 37.79.
* US Yields – 10-year is down -0.3 bp at 1.96%, while the 10-year JGB rate has lifted 2.0 bp to 0.203% and yields are also higher in Australia and New Zealand.
* Equities – GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 1.65% and 1.2%. JPN225 gained nearly 2% and the CSI 300 is currently up 0.8%. USA100 round tripped, bouncing 3.35% higher after tumbling -3.4%, while USA500 recovered to post a 1.59% gain from a -2.6% drop, with USA30 rising 0.28% versus a -2.6% morning drop.
* USOil – fell back to $89.60 lows after hitting 7-year highs of $100.50 ahead of the open. Currently at $93.70.
* Gold – tumbled from a $1974 high down to the $1885 area.
* Bitcoin back above PP at $37,700.
* FX markets – EURUSD at 1.1210 from 1.1110 low, USDJPY back above 115.15, Cable breached 1.3438.
European Open – Europe’s reliance on Russian oil and gas comes at a price and will be something officials need to address urgently, although there is of course no quick solution, which means consumers will feel the pain of even higher energy costs. The jump in the cost of living is already depressing consumer confidence, and after the disappointing German GfK consumer confidence reading earlier in the week, the UK’s numbers overnight looked equally depressing. The pressure on central bank to step in will remain then, even against the background of the crisis in Ukraine.
DATA: German Q4 GDP revised up markedly – to -0.3% q/q from -0.7% q/q reported initially. German import price inflation hit 26.9% y/y in January, another higher than expected number that is likely to explode in coming months when the jump in oil prices is reflected, as it seems extremely unlikely that oil prices will go down very quickly in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European gas prices exploded yesterday and are also likely to remain very high, which means more pain for consumers ahead, as the cost of living explodes.
Today – Today’s data calendar includes detailed German GDP, preliminary French inflation numbers, the Eurozone ESI confidence reading, US PCE, Durable Goods and Michigan index. EU and ECB officials are set to hold a presser today, likely detailing some sanctions against Russia and their implementation.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCZK (+1.18%) spiked to 22.30 from 21.99 on EU open. MAs bulishly crossed, MACD signal line & histogram remain close to 0 line, RSI 64 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0622, Daily ATR 0.2683.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 28th February 2022.
Market Update – Major risk-off market moves as sanctions bite.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Major RISK OFF mood in markets as they believe weekend announcements, unlike initial sanctions, will have significant impact. Rouble down 30% at record lows, Russian central bank has doubled a key rate to 20% from 9.5% and is openly buying gold. – Oil futures rallied well over $100/barrel. Safe havens of USD, JPY, Government Bonds and Gold all in demand. EUR, AUD, NZD stocks and yields all lower.
Week Ahead – Will be dominated by news from Ukraine; BoC & RBA policy meetings, month-end today & and a heavy dose of global data releases including GDPs, PMIs, US ADP and NFP data.
* USD up (USDIndex 97.00). USD on bid next resistance 97.40 & 97.67.
*US Yields 10-yr tanked from 1.986% close Friday to 1.90% now.
*Equities – USA500 +95.95pts (+2.24%) 4384 on Friday. US500 FUTS collapsed (-2.82%) to 4260 earlier, back to 4285 now.
*USOil – Topped at $97.10, from under $90.00 on Friday, back to under $94.00 now.
*Gold – Holds over psychological $1900 now, having topped at $1930 earlier.
*Bitcoin broke lower to trade at $38,250.
*FX markets – EURUSD under 1.1185, USDJPY holds 115.50 and Cable trades at 1.3385.
Overnight - JPY data mixed, Ind. production missed (-1.3% vs -0.6%) & Retail sales a tick higher at 1.6%. AUD data also mixed – a big beat for Retail Sales (1.8% vs 0.3% & -4.4% previously).
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 84 ticks at 166.99 and Treasury futures outperforming amid a general flight to safety amid the escalating tensions between the West and Russia that saw Russia’s Putin putting nuclear deterrent forces on high alert after western allies imposed stiff sanctions that included the exclusion of some Russian banks from SWIFT and also targeted Russia’s central bank. The opening of Russia’s stock markets has been postponed to the afternoon. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -3.2% and -1.5% respectively. Most Asian markets managed to close higher after a volatile session.
Today – Russian-Ukrainian officials meeting; US Chicago PMI; ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta; Fed’s Bostic; EU’s von der Leyen; China’s Foreign Minister Yi; Earnings ABF, Baidu.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (-0.80%) Collapsed from Friday’s close over 130.20 to 128.50 lows & trades over 129.00 now. MAs remain aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line, RSI 49.77 & rising, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.367, Daily ATR 1.2850.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 1st March 2022.
Market Update – March 1 – Calmer Markets For Now.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Risk Off mood cools, at least for now, with stock markets mixed, the USD, Commodities and Treasuries hold their bid. More Western companies pull investments from Russia, Visa & Mastercard block financial transactions, Monaco and London block more accounts. Oil futures rally again, Gold holds up and Yields remain pressured. Overnight Asian markets moved higher, JPY Manu. PMI miss, CNY PMI’s beat (51.6 vs 50.6). RBA keeps interest rates unchanged amid new uncertainty. Ukraine applies for EU membership as a 65km convoy of Russian armour heads towards Kyiv.
February Review – S&P500 fell -3.1%, DJIA30 lost -3.5%, & the NASDAQ shed -3.4%. Year to date the S&P500 is down -8.2% with January & February being the biggest two-month drop since March 2020 and the onset of the pandemic.
* USD (USDIndex 96.65). Traded below 97.00 most of yesterday. 96.50 next support.
* US Yields 10-yr lower again closed at 1.839 Monday, 3 ticks higher to 1.86% now.
* Equities – USA500 -10.70pts (-0.24%) 4373. (TSLA +7.48%, Zoom +5.81%, BP -4.95%, Total -7.62%) US500 FUTS recovering to 4386 now.
* USOil – Support at $93.00, yesterday, back to $95.00 now.
* Gold – Holds over psychological $1900 now, trades at $1908.
* Bitcoin rallied over key 40 & 42K levels to trade at $43,400.
* FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1225, from 1.1125 lows yesterday, USDJPY holds 115.00 and Cable recovers 1.3400 to trade at 1.3420 now.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 37 ticks at 167.41, outperforming versus Treasuries, which are down on the day. Europe’s geographical proximity to Ukraine and reliance on Russian oil and gas has left European markets more vulnerable to the fallout from the Ukraine war with DAX and FTSE 100 futures down -0.4%. Developments in Ukraine will continue to overshadow the markets going forward.
Today – EU, UK & US Final PMIs, German CPI & Retail Sales, US ISM Manufacturing PMI & Construction Spending, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic & Mester, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Saunders & President Biden’s State of the Union Address. Earnings Target, AMC, HP & Salesforce.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.33%) The cooling of the risk off mood and RBA helped the pair recover. A breach of 83.00 lower earlier to 83.75 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram above 0 line, RSI 65.80 & rising, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.139, Daily ATR 0.9450.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 2nd March 2022.
Market Update – March 2 – Risk-Off Returns.
https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...ket-update.png
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Risk Off mood returned as stock markets dived and safe havens from the USD to US Treasuries rallied. Oil & GOLD markets surged, Brent hit $110/barrel & Gold hit $1950/ounce. More Western companies (Apple, Ford & Boeing,) pull investments from Russia & US banned Russian airlines from its airspace. However, Russian Oil, Gas & Uranium exports all remain open. Asian markets moved lower (Nikkei -1.3%). Biden SOU speech warns “we are coming fro your ill-gotten gains” and off-script says that Putin “has no idea what’s coming”
Overnight – AUD GDP missed (3.4% vs 3.5%), JPY Capital Spending was higher and UK House Price Inflation jumped to 1.7% form 0.6%.
* USD (USDIndex 97.60). Rallied through 97.00 most of yesterday. 97.75 next resistance.
* US Yields 10-yr lower again closed at 1.73, 3 ticks lower to 1.707% now.
* Equities – USA500 -67pts (-1.55%) 4306. US500 FUTS down at 4288 now.
* USOil – Rallied from support at $94.00, yesterday, up to $107.55 now.
* Gold – Rallied from $1905 now, trades at $1948.
* Bitcoin rallied over key 40 & 42K levels to trade at $43,800.
* FX markets – EURUSD back under 1.1100, USDJPY holds 115.15 and Cable down to 1.3280 now.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 36 ticks at 170.66, while U.S. futures are slightly lower. , although in cash markets the U.S. 10-year rate is down -2.0 bp at 1.707%. Investors are pricing out excessive rate hike bets and in the Eurozone the 10-year Bund yield closed at -0.80% yesterday, with negative rates not expected to go away any time soon. For today, investors are likely to remain extremely nervous, although the -0.7% decline in the DAX future looks modest compared to yesterday’s correction and the FTSE 100 future is actually up 0.1%.
Today – German Unemployment, EZ CPI, US ADP, BoC Policy Announcement, OPEC+, Ukraine-Russia Meeting (Time TBC), Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Bullard & Evans, ECB’s Lane, Schnabel, de Guindos & Nagel.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCAD (-0.36%) 6-day collapse from 1.7345 continues down to 1.6915 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line, RSI 30 & falling, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.139, Daily ATR 0.9450.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 3rd March 2022.
Market Update – March 3 – War stokes stagflation fears.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Stock markets mostly moved higher across Asia, but GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.14% and US futures narrowly mixed, with the USA100 underperforming, against the background of the Ukraine war. Yields jumped higher yesterday and Bund futures are little changed this morning, as are Treasury futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected somewhat. Aluminium hits record top; Oil, wheat at multi-year highs on supply woes. Longer-term Black Sea supply curbs lift wheat to 14-year high – Brent hit $118/barrel & Gold hit $1950/ounce. Russia is a top supplier in oil, gas, metals and grain, and Russia and Ukraine also account for 19% of corn exports and 80% of exports of sunflower oil, which competes with soybean oil and palm oil.
Reuters: The United States is preparing a sanctions package targeting more Russian oligarchs as well as their companies and assets, as Washington steps up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
New talks between Ukraine and Russia are reportedly slated for today. US “hugely important” delivery of Stinger missiles to Ukraine hailed “game-changer” – Fake News? Political propaganda? Who knows.
Overnight – Powell signalled a less aggressive pace of interest rate hikes than investors had feared. BoE’s Cunliffe and Tenreyro suggested that the war in Ukraine will change the outlook” – suggested the bank remains on course to deliver further rate hikes. The banks could remain on course to remove stimulus, but will move cautiously and maintain the flexibility to step in again if necessary. BoE’s Tenreyro says Ukraine war leaves “upside surprise” on inflation, but also delivered a trade shock. China Services PMIs down; Japan consumer confidence down. ADP data showed a stronger than expected 475k jump in private payrolls in February and a hefty upward revision in January to 509k from -301k.
* USD – USDIndex at 97.50
* US Yields 10-yr lower now, was over 13 bps higher testing 1.87%.
* Equities – Nikkei lifted 0.7%, USA500 jumped 1.86% – Energy was the best performing subsector on Nikkei (+3.2%), financials jumped 3.17%.
* USOil – Rallied to $112.00; Brent hit $118/barrel.
* Gold – steady as risk appetite improved, trades at $1926; Copper at 4.76 ; Palladium at 2,721.
* FX markets – EURUSD at 21-month low at 1.1055, USDJPY up at 115.72 and Cable down to 1.3390 now from 1.3416. USDCAD breaks below 200-Day SMA (Bank of Canada raised rates 0.25%). AUDUSD breaches and breaks 200-week SMA at 0.7320.
Today – Today’s data releases will continue to take a backseat , but include final services PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK. The account of the ECB’s last policy meeting is also due, but the highlights will be in the US session with Jobless claims, ISM Services, Markit PMI, Fed Chair Powell testimony and BoC Macklem speech.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) UKOIL (+4.83%) Spiked to 119.78. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram extend higher, RSI 70 & rising with all suggesting further steam to the upside. H1 ATR 1.79, Daily ATR 5.07.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 4th March 2022.
Market Update – March 4 – Markets slump after nuclear power station strike.
https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...ket-update.png
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Risk Off mood swirled as Europe’s largest nuclear power complex was targeted in Russian/Ukrainian fighting, 5 of the 6 reactors have been safely shutdown. Safe havens from USD to US Treasuries continue to rally and Oil & GOLD markets hold their gains, lifting commodity currencies. Asian stock markets crashed (Nikkei -2.5%) EUR is testing 24-month lows. US markets closed lower on mixed US data (PMI’s disappointed but Initial Claims were better than expected), despite some big gains from retailers. Fed Chair Powell was a tad more Hawkish in his second day of testimony. US sanctioned more Russian oligarchs. Ukraine and Russia reached an understanding on a joint provision of humanitarian corridors for evacuating civilians.
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* USD (USDIndex 98.02). Cooled from 98.08 (May 2020 high) earlier as nuclear power plant fire is contained. Rallied through 97.00 most of yesterday. 97.75 next resistance.
* US Yields 10-yr up to 1.844 on close – off 6 ticks lower to 1.785% now.
* Equities – USA500 -23pts (-0.53%) 4363. US500 FUTS down at 4341 now.
* USOil – Rallied to $112.56, yesterday, $106.10 now.
* Gold – Rallied to $1950 earlier, $1936 now.
* Bitcoin under 42K levels to trade at $43,300.
* FX markets – EURUSD back under 1.1010, USDJPY holds 115.40 and Cable down to 1.3320 now.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 50 ticks at 169.71, U.S. futures are also higher across the board, as investors head for safety once again. The Russian attack clearly has rattled nerves and left investors seeking safety in bonds and the Greenback. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are down -1.97% and -1.10% respectively. Developments in Ukraine may even overshadow todays’ US payroll report.
Today – EZ Retail Sales & Construction PMI, US Labour Market Report.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.72%) Collapse from 1.6200 in mid February continues down to 1.4975 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line, RSI 14 OS but still falling, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily ATR 0.0100.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 8th March 2022.
Market Update – March 8 – Commodities Parabolic Rally Continues.
https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...8_09-52-16.jpg
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Instability from the war and uncertainties over global impacts made pricing extremely difficult, especially considering the extent of the moves over the last couple of weeks.
Markets are positioning for a series of rate hikes to deal with the spike in commodity prices, while in the Eurozone there is lingering speculation that the war in Ukraine and stagflation risks will prevent the ECB from a commitment to a phasing out of net asset purchases. Bonds as well as stock markets remained under pressure, as the Ukraine war is fuelling stagflation fears. The June 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are firmly in the red once again, while the US cash rate has lifted 1.0 bp to 1.78%. The JPN225 is down -1.7%, with hefty losses of -3.62% on the USA100, -2.95% on the USA500, and -2.37% on the USA30. Oil is still trading at $120.00 after the wider jump to $126.30 – commodity prices will not just push up cost of living expenses but also weigh on production in sectors reliant on ready and cheap energy supplies.
* USD (USDIndex 99.31). Steady at 6-year highs.
* US Yields 10-yr up 1.2 bp at 1.785% – The JGB rate is up 1.0 bp at 0.150%.
* Equities – USA500 FUTS down at 4168 now.
* USOil – Rallied to $126.30 yesterday, $119.70 now. – The prospect of a ban on oil imports from Russia triggered investor fears over inflation and slowing economic growth.
* Gold – Rallied to $2020 earlier, $2018.30 now.
* Bitcoin trades at $38,350.
* Nickel at new record highs – more than doubled today to cross the $100,000-a-tonne level for the first time ever, as tension in eastern Europe showed no signs of cooling and growing sanctions against Russia fuelled fears of a disruption in supply. – Russia supplies the world with about 10% of its nickel needs, mainly for use in stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries.
* Palladium surged to a new peak too. Wheat has paced the rise in key commodities since the invasion, having soared 52%. It surged 5.4% to a new high of $13.63 a bushel but finished down -7% at $12.02.
* FX markets – EURUSD at 22-month low at 1.0847, USDJPY holds 115.50 and Cable down to 1.3080 now.
Overnight – Japan reported its biggest current account deficit since 2014 in January. President Joe Biden’s administration is willing to move ahead with a US ban on Russian oil imports even if European allies do not, Reuters reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. Crude has already hit 14-year highs and Russia warned that prices could surge to $300 a barrel and it might close the main gas pipeline to Germany if the West halts oil imports over the invasion of Ukraine. Germany has rejected plans to ban energy imports. The biggest buyer of Russian crude oil is accelerating plans to expand its use of alternative energy sources but cannot halt imports of Russian energy overnight, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Monday.
Today – EU Q4 GDP, US Trade, Wholesale Trade, and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and Japanese Q4 GDP.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Palladium (+7.52%) Spiked to 3200 again recovering from 2810 lows last night. Currently MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram steady at 0 line, RSI 57 but pointing lower, all implying a short term potential correction lower. H1 ATR 56.87, Daily ATR 215.19.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 10th March 2022.
Market Update – March 10 – Stocks & EUR Bounce, Oil sinks, Gold & USD slip.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Risk On re-emerged yesterday as stocks rallied (NASDAQ +3.59%, Nikkei +3.8%) as Russia-Ukraine Fin. Mins. meet in Turkey, OIL dived (-12% at one point) as UAE said it would increase output, but not break with OPEC. GOLD fell $85 & JPY & CHF dipped as safe haven assets fell (USDJPY over 116), USD slipped too, EUR had its best day in months (EURGBP back to 0.8400) ahead of ECB later. AUD & NZD hold their bid too. Yields fell and BTC stalled at key $42k level and lost over $2k. Overnight JPY PPI leapt to 9.3% due to significant imports.
* USD (USDIndex 98.04). Cooled from over 99.06 yesterday to 97.80 before recovering 98.00.
* US Yields 10-yr up to 1.948% on close – lower to 1.934% now. Yesterday’s 10-yr auction was filled at 1.92.
* Equities – USA500 +107 (+2.57%) 4277. US500 FUTS down at 4270 now. Tech rallied over +5% (Google, MSFT, NFLX & TWTR). XOM lost -5.6% as oil prices collapsed. Amazon +2.4% announced 20-for-1 stock split.
* USOil – Tanked from $124.90 highs on Tuesday to $99.70 yesterday. $107.50 now.
* Gold – Down from Tuesday high at $2070 to under $1975 now.
* Bitcoin tested the key $42K level yesterday, only to reverse under $40k & trades at $39,300 now.
* FX markets – EURUSD back over 1.1050, USDJPY holds over 116.00 and Cable up to 1.3190 now
European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 15 ticks at 163.75, outperforming versus Treasury futures. Yields moved higher across Asia, but the broad reversal of safe haven flows that dominated yesterday’s session has already started to run out of steam, as doubts over hopes that Ukraine and Russia will come to an agreement at the scheduled meeting of foreign ministers in Turkey today have crept in. US futures are broadly lower, even if DAX and FTSE 100 futures are adding to yesterday’s gains. The correction in oil prices eases some of the recent pressure and for the Eurozone at least, while support also comes from hope that EU heads of state will agree to joint debt issuance to finance energy and defence policies in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the escalating tensions between the West and Russia.
ECB Preview – The ECB meets today and another joint debt package would increase the central bank’s room to extend net asset purchases, which most now expect the central bank to keep open ended at today’s meeting as warnings of stagflation fears dominate the headlines. Still, the ECB can’t afford to do nothing and may find a way to change strategy and open the way to hike rates, while still buying bonds.
Today – US CPI, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference (Lagarde), Weekly Claims, Russia-Ukraine Foreign Ministers in Turkey & EU Leaders Summit, RBA’s Lowe.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.40%) Rallied from 0.6735 lows yesterday to over 0.68.00 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram hold over 0 line, RSI 62 & rising, Stochs in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0070.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 11th March 2022.
Market Update – March 11.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
US CPI is at a fresh 40-year peak, and there was a hawkish slant from the ECB for which the markets were not fully prepared. Risk off prevails with Asian stocks mostly sold off, after a largely weaker close on Wall Street. Japanese indexes underperformed and the Nikkei lost -2.1%, while the ASX was down -0.9% at the close. The Hang Seng corrected -1.6%, weighed down by tech stocks after the US flagged five Chinese firms that could be delisted. Oil dived to 101.25 amid escalating bans on Russian oil. President Biden will call for an end to normal trade relations with Russia. US & G7 allies to move today to strip Russia of ‘most favored nation’ status.
* USD (USDIndex 98.63) steady below 99.40 highs.
* US Yields 10-yr cheapened 6 bps to the 2.00% area. The 2-year rate was at 1.715%. The wi 30-year tested 2.40% prior to the sale but closed around 2.38%.
* Equities – USA100 closed with a -0.95% decline, while the USA500 and Dow were down -0.43% and -0.34%, respectively.
* USOil – dipped to $101.25 but up to $105.09 now. Set for its biggest weekly drop since November.
* Gold – lower as US Treasury yields gained overnight on red-hot inflation data. Currently at $1990.
* FX markets – EURUSD back below 1.1000, USDJPY at 5-year tops at 116.79 and Cable languishes at 1.3093 near a 16-month low.
European Open – Eurozone bond yields spiked and spreads widened in the wake of the ECB announcement yesterday, which confirmed the ECB’s path to policy normalisation. Net asset purchases are set to be scaled back through the second quarter and likely to end in Q3, and while that paves the way for rate hikes in Q4, the ECB made it clear that rate moves will depend on geopolitical developments. The Ukraine war has left the growth outlook with clear risks to the downside and the inflation outlook with considerable upside risks, which complicates the matter, but it is clear that for now the ECB remains determined to phase out stimulus as inflation is unlikely to undershoot the target in the medium term.
Overnight – Japanese real spending dropped -1.2% in January, following the 0.2% bounce in December. German February HICP inflation was confirmed at 5.5% y/y, rising from 5.1% y/y in the previous month. UK monthly GDP was stronger than anticipated. The economy expanded 0.8% m/m in January.
Today – With the focus firmly on the Ukraine war, data releases continue to take a back seat, but for what it is worth, today brings Canadian Labor data.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.51%) Rallied to January 2017 highs at 116.79. MAs pointing right, MACD signal line & histogram hold well above 0 line, RSI 76 & flat, all implying near term consolidation but overall strong positive bias.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
