Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 28, 2017

The EUR/USD was reversed following its rally on Monday. It broke higher than the resistance level reached during the Friday session. Profits and losses switched back and forth for the bonds and gilts in the event that there are not much events in the economic calendar which makes the investors cautious on the next step for the U.S. tax plans. All eyes are focusing on Brexit and Political concerns in Germany where it seems that buying on the lows became natural scenarios as the end of the year approaches. The confidence data that came out from Italy remains very low but was rebounded as it became more appealing on Wednesday along with reports including the U.K. credit data and confidence figure from the Eurozone and German preliminary HICP readings for November.

The euro major pair broke higher than the resistance line but pulled back soon after which led to a much higher high on Monday. The rate is presumed to test the resistance level close to the September high at 1.2092. There is a possibility for a breakdown in the support level at 1.1830 and the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1811. The MACD also shows positive results amid a good momentum as it prints in black with an inclined sloping trajectory which will most likely results in a higher exchange rate. On the other hand, the RSI was reversed following its climb, indicating an improving positive impetus of the pair.


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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: November 29, 2017

The American dollar traded sideways during the trading session on Tuesday, however, moved above the 1.28 handle and slightly broke out on top of that area. Moreover, the market seems to pull back from that level due to the struggle at the recent high. In the past 36 hours was slightly parabolic, which could require a pullback to establish an upward momentum. This market is expected to be greatly influenced by crude oil as the oil industry rolls over a little, and caused the Canadian dollar to drop its value. With this, the market is filled with plenty of volatility which makes it complicated to hover on large positions as expected. Building a position favorable on your side is the most feasible way to advance, while the level below 1.2750 would likely the support based on the previous order flow.

Contrarily, a cut through above the 1.2833 handle will generate a renewed high that could possibly offer the right buying opportunity. The area below 1.27 is projected be very supportive, but a breakdown underneath the 1.2675 region would be very negative which could push the market downwards until the 1.25 handle.

It is possible for the volatility to remain as an issue, considering that the oil sector was uncertain about its views. The high volatility that surrounds the oil market consistently passes through this market. Generally, the upside seems favorable amid it is characterized by a “risk off” move that is somewhat overdue.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: December 4, 2017

The kiwi and the greens traded sideways during the onset of the trading session last Friday, however, met decent support around the 0.6815 region to gradually increase. Nevertheless, the announcement made by General Flynn regarding his willingness to work against the White House has pushed the American dollar downwards in general. As expected, this caused wide-ranging impact throughout the world versus the major currencies, as the New Zealand dollar did not make any difference. But the level above 0.69 is resistive which extends through the 0.70 mark eventually.

Upon breaking the 0.70 area, it seems that buying would become interesting and it remains to be seen before obtaining some advantageous type of exhaustive candle. The level below 0.68 has massive support and breaking down that area after a rollover would offer a long-term opportunity to “sell and hold”.

As of this writing, the search for an opportunity to sell the market is ongoing, particularly, those that contain a significant amount of pessimism since the public is highly concerned on New Zealand’s Labour party expenses. Meanwhile, fixing and signing of the tax bill by the US Congress could help the American dollar. The previous rally amid the fluid-based situation would probably end as an overreaction. Moving out from the market and allowing the market to cool off could be the most preferred way to trade alternatively.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 6, 2017

The euro major pair declined in the past 24 hours but with unknown reason. The euro has a weak overall trend in the market and there is lesser strength in the dollar. The movement has been movings steadily which was sufficient for the pair to decline lower than yesterday’s trading. It reached the level as low as 1.18 prior to rally as it trades higher than the 1.1820 at the moment.

The market seems to be waiting on the sidelines as traders are observing the movement, particularly of the dollar. The rate hike will happen soon that causes last-minute uncertainty whether this will be pushed through this month. Also, concerns regarding the tax reform bill are also being considered if this will passed by the Senate which could take some time and traders have to wait for the next movement.

Being the last month of the year, traders should be patient whether this will further develop amid holidays. This adds more pressure to traders to be careful in betting large positions and better to be patient before deciding which way to go. As a result, the dollar is now moving steadily as the euro continues to decline at a slower pace since many currency pairs are attempting to maintain within the borders of the trading range that has been known in the past few months.

There is no major news from the eurozone except for the ADP employment report from the U.S. This is prior to the release of the NFP for the week. Pressure will still be present in trading this pair as the market waits for the development of the news.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2017

The Aussie dollar imposed volatility amid Tuesday’s trading session and reached the higher level at 0.7580. However, it rolled over later that day due to stronger-than-expected results of CPI data in the United States. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will have an announcement today which could possibly provide further clarity.

Moreover, the Australian dollar had initially rallied during the course yesterday but seems to have a pessimistic mood due to money flow in the US. A break down from that point might push through the 0.75 support mark which is highly supportive. The market is expected to continue its volatility, but there is a tendency for a break down. A breakdown under the 0.75 mark will drive the market lower to 0.7350 zone, which is a previous support.

Eventually, a rally from that region would largely depend on the Fed Reserve and its sentiment towards the interest rate hike. A hawkish stance could possibly weaken the AUD and the short term. However, it seems that the Fed would be dovish and will push the market to the upside. Nevertheless, the level above 0.7650 is greatly resistive which could make the upside limited. Hence, the Fed may shock the markets that they will no longer raise rates completely.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 18, 2017

The British pound trades in a strong manner since the day started even despite the lack of fundamental developments. Also, there are not much economic releases on Friday which allow the consolidation and ranging for the price action within that day. At the same time, there are reports about increasing support for the US tax reform bill during the American trading session, it further indicates that the bill is expected to be passed amid the course of the current week. Hence, this enables the US dollar to grow and pushed the GBP/USD pair downwards during Friday’s late session. When the bill is approved, the strength of the greenbacks is expected to resume in the near term, until the year ends. In turn, the Cable pair will continue to be under pressure throughout this period, however, the level of impact remains unclear.

On weekend, British Prime Minister Theresa May reiterated her determination to push through the Brexit process and she further stated her willingness to deal with it in the short term concerning the payment that the United Kingdom need to settle along with the possible trade access. These two factors are the most important elements to consider but the UK and the market seem worried about these. The process appears to be a little bit of delay but the encouraging speech delivered by PM May successfully give a slight raise to the sterling earlier this morning.

Ultimately, there is no major news from the US or the UK for the rest of the day while some consolidation and ranging are expected much for today. Moreover, volatility might get a slight boost upon the onset of the US session and further updates with regards the tax bill.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 20, 2017

The GBP/USD currency pair was able to move ahead of the American dollar, as the USD lower in price amid smooth approval process of the tax bill. The passage was projected to support the dollar to increase, however, the effect was completely different. The market’s reaction remains uncertain not until the bill is already passed through in one of the US Houses and waiting for the Senate approval. However, there could be some delay due to procedural problems which could possibly place some pressure on the greenbacks that could further lead to uncertainty. As expected, the tax reform bill will be enacted by the Senate on a very tight margin and further requires the President’s signature to seal in the law. The whole scenario would likely be completed within this week, hence, the volatility in the USD should keep going until it happens.

The Brexit process does not have much improvement over this week and it is predicted to continue until New Year. Definitely, there will be some strong development in the process since the leaders on both sides clearly stated about the completion of a deal which may take a matter of time prior accomplishing the agreement. This notion seems to provide support for the pound in the past couple of weeks.

Ultimately, BOE Governor Mark Carney will have his speech but the impact to the market is predicted to be minimal. The market trend for today would likely be led by the USD and tax bill legislation. It is believed that the greens should gain more strength in the short and medium term in order to maintain the GBPUSD active.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 21, 2017

The euro paired against the U.S. dollar still dominates the market as it positions strongly, although the volatile is starts to lessen come to the end of the week. The volatility would be much more minimize by the end of the week with the year about to end.

The U.S. tax reform bill was successfully passed that require Trump to seal it after which is anticipated soon. This is considered as an achievement for Trump as everyone in the team worked hard for this. It would also be beneficial for the large companies and gain more profit which would bring in more jobs in the U.S.

Trump has stabilized his position at the top which would now shift his attention to other bills such as the healthcare reform bill. However, the stock market and foreign exchange of the U.S. dollar did not have that much vigor, as the dollar is starting to decline recently compared to its position last week. It has been all over the market which supported the euro instead.

The EUR/USD pair was seen to touch on the 1.19 level but moved after into a consolidated yesterday. Trades are being traded just currently below the said level. When it comes to news, the final GDP data from the U.S. is anticipated today but there will be no other economic news to be published from the Eurozone. Hence, the trading range is presumed to tighten especially since the holidays are approaching.


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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 22, 2017

The Aussie dollar traded sideways initially amid Thursday’s trading session, however, it moved higher following a weaker numbers of American GDP. This further caused the greenbacks to decline while providing a slight increase towards the Australian dollar during the day.

Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair trades in a low-volume at the margin during the day and traders are concerned to the approaching holidays in contrast to the currency markets.

It can be assumed that a break down under the 0.7625 area will push the market downwards reaching the 0.75 handle. It appears that the AUD will have some difficulty in moving higher to the upside, as a result, sellers manage to conduct a return. Perhaps, the market is easier to short at higher levels, but for now, it is suggested to stay on the sidelines until the volumes return.

There are some resistance barriers throughout the way which could make a difficult course to drive upwards. Hence, buying the commodity-linked pair seems to be under pressure. On the other hand, there’s no any shorting opportunity due to rally attempts by the market. The ability to roll over will push the market quickly, but it is impossible to see until after the New Year’s Day. Therefore, the market is expected to be difficult to deal with.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 26, 2017

The euro against the U.S. dollar started with a tight trading week in a facile environment in consideration of the current market situation. Majority of traders are on a vacation this Christmas holiday season and the New Year whereas most of them would not working. This would result to lower volatility and liquidity that would limit the range of trading for this week.

There is also not much economic data on the calendar with fewer fundamentals in the next days to come. The steady dollar was supported by the tax reform bill, which was recently passed by the Senate and signed by the U.S. President. This would benefit m0st of the companies with lots of tax benefits which is as much as important to Trump and his team. At the same time, this is foreseen to improve the labor market and boost the economy in the succeeding years.

Hence, the dollar gained a short-term boost from the bill which will most likely be in effect for this week. The euro is being traded in a right range with minor consolidation in the past few months. Although, the fundamental new was not enough to successfully break the trading range.
It is yet to be discovered where the trend will range and if it is sufficient to sustain the pair within its range until January.

For today, there is not much economic news that is anticipated to be released from the eurozone or from the U.S. It is holidays in most part of Europe, which could result to tight trading range and consolidation throughout the day.


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