Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 27, 2017

The recovery of the greenbacks coupled with the BBA Mortgage Approvals of UK place pressure towards the British currency on Friday.

The Cable secured its bullish market position on Friday. The spot leaves the upper limit of the channel in the night and slowed down near its lower limit during the morning session of Europe. The GBPUSD kept steady amid the day maintaining its seat close to the 1.2500 region.

The 4-hour timeframe illustrated the major stayed aloft moving averages, seeing the 100 and 50-EMAs to drive higher while 200-EMA turned neutral.

Resistance touched 1.2500, support hit 1.2400.

The MACD indicator grew less presenting weak position of the buyers. RSI oscillator sits next to the overbought grounds, confirming for a higher move.

A move over the 1.2500 level would likely take an advance move towards 1.2600 mark.

The positive figures of Manufacturing and Composite PMI from the countries, France, Europe and Germany offered some strength to the single European currency. Particularly, German index which attained the strongest level for almost six years. Meanwhile, the greenbacks obtained a weaker position after the treasury yields inch lower in which provided further support for euro.

The EURUSD continued to stay in the hands of the bulls on Friday. The EUR reached its lower limit in the ascending channel over the night and jumped higher. The price also spiked from the mark 1.0760 towards 1.0800 amid EU morning sessions and sit still in the New York trades.

The 4-hour chart determined that the pair resumed its development on top of the moving averages as the 100 and 50-EMA preserved a bullish pattern while 200-EMA came in neutral.

Resistance entered 1.0800, support touched 1.0750 region.

MACD indicator strengthened which showed a buy signal. RSI oscillator edged upwards.

In case the level 1.0800 broke, the next level would possibly be at 1.0850.

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The EUR/USD pair crashed during the previous session as the pair corrected its current upmove which has been the pair’s trend for the past few weeks. The USD finally recovered across the board, resulting to sellers taking advantage of this occurrence and selling the EUR. The dollar strength has helped to propel the pair’s value towards 1.0800 points, therefore eradicating the pair’s previous gains which was made last Monday.

Because of this, traders are now mulling over the fact that the EUR/USD pair could be in for more corrections as the sessions progresses. However, the market has no choice but to wait and see how the pair’s price action turns out in the next few days, particularly if whether the pair would continue its current trend of correction or if the pair backs down as it approaches its support barrier at 1.0800, where the currency pair is situated as of the moment. The USD remained weak last Friday up until Monday due to the repeated failed attempts of the Trump administration to pass the healthcare bill. However, the White House is now trying to make another attempt at passing the said bill after Republicans reached out to like-minded Democrats. In addition, the US economy continues to release a slew of strong economic data and this has caused the EUR/USD pair to fall further during the US trading session.

For today’s session, there are no expected releases coming from both the EU and the US economy. However, the month-end flows are expected to come anytime soon as March comes to a close, and since the USD’s strength is expected to persist today, the EUR/USD pair would continue to remain under pressure with the 1.0800 range remaining the essential barrier for the currency pair.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 29, 2017

The GBP/USD had a very disastrous trading day yesterday as the currency pair crashed by over 200 pips following the USD’s recovery, as well as the nearing invocation of Article 50. A lot of market players have been saying that today will be a very interesting day for the GBP/USD pair as the Article 50 will be invoked later today, which will mark the start of the Brexit process and basically a point of no return for the British economy.

The GBP/USD pair has seen a consistent buildup of shorts during the past week as the market awaits a very large drop today. However, the value of the GBP/USD pair is also consistently moving higher and increasing towards 1.2600 points. This is a potentially very risky combination and the effect of this combo manifested yesterday, wherein both the USD’s strength and Brexit-related concerns caused the currency pair to drop from its range highs of 1.2600 towards 1.2400 points, where the pair is currently trading. The USD recovered amid possibilities that the Trump admin might again try to pass the healthcare bill by seeking help from like-minded Democrats. Theresa May will also be signing the order for Article 50, and it will be interesting to see how the sterling pound will react to this most recent development in the UK economy.

For today’s session, there are no major releases from both the US and the UK economy and this is why the market will be mostly focusing on the invocation of Article 50 and the subsequent reaction of the GBP/USD pair following the said invocation.

The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar declined in the beginning of Tuesday trading but turned around and found significant support level at 0.7587 with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A bullish candle was seen and the market tries to move to higher towards the .7750 level and above.

Later on, the market was able to break higher than the 0.7648 resistance level completing the downtrend from 0.7749 to 0.7587 level. It is more favorable to buy this pair with chances for a breakout in the gold market which traders are trying to attain and if they are successful in doing so higher than $1262 level, this would give higher returns to the traders.

The current price could further go up towards the next target at 0.7700 zone while a break lower than the support level at 0.7587 could follow downtrend towards 0.7500 mark.

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The USD/JPY pair dropped in value during the previous session in spite of the US dollar’s strong outlook against other major currencies. The ambiguity in the US equity markets, as well as weak Treasury yields might have contributed to the weakness in the currency pair. A lot of investors are now going back to the safety of the Japanese yen, mostly because of the alarming concerns with regards to the French elections, Brexit negotiations, and Trump’s frustrated attempts to fulfill his campaign promises. The USD/JPY closed down the previous session at 111.042 points after decreasing by 0.083 points or-0.07%.

For Thursday’s session, investors will be waiting for the release of the US GDP data as well as jobless claims data, in addition to comments from Fed officials including Kaplan, Dudley, Williams, and Mester. But of these four officials, the statement coming from Dudley is touted as the most interesting due to his position in the FOMC as a permanent voter. Dudley is expected to discuss topics such as the Fed’s monetary policy and the present financial climate of the US economy.

For the meantime, it seems as if the Fed and bond investors have contrasting views with regards to the path of US interest rates. This could be partly attributed to bond investors overvaluing the Trump administration’s ability to help prop up the economy by way of highly-aggressive economic policies. The USD/JPY pair could receive additional support if the Republicans would manage to convince investors that they can actually turn Trump’s proposals into actual laws. However, any additional doubts with regards to Trump’s ability to fulfill his role as President could induce additional selling pressure.

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 30, 2017

The commodity-linked pair is confined to a familiar range yesterday. The price was positioned in the middle points of 1.3400 and 1.3350 within the day.
The overnight recovery slowed down in the earlier trades as the spot attained the channel’s upper limit.

The morning session triggered renewed bearish tone. The greenbacks dropped sharply near the lower limit eliminating its gains throughout the night. Sellers unsuccessfully move downwards and hovered in the range.

In the 4-hour chart, the spot was sandwiched in the 100 and 50-EMA during the first part of the day. Meanwhile, the 50-EMA drove higher, 100-EMA shifted down and the 200-EMA preserved a bullish pattern.

Resistance is at 1.3400, support holds 1.3330 mark.

The MAcd indicator stayed on its previous level, favoring strength for the buyers. The RSI oscillator descended.

As mentioned in the same timeframe, technicals confirm a downwards continuation to 1.3330.

The US dollar is positioned near its weekly highs on Tuesday but the bullish tone of German jobless rate stalled its advancement which offered another leg to the common European currency.

Furthermore, the price maintained a bearish sentiment last Friday, however, the bears did not hold its stance longer favoring the bull to reversed few of its ground.

The price bounced towards the area of 1.0675 amid Asian session on Friday. The EURUSD made a reversal to the mark 1.0700 throughout the European trades.

The 4-hour chart showed the EUR/USD cut through the 100-EMA downwards while 100 and 200-EMAs directed upwards, showing the 50-EMA to drove downwards.

Resistance was seen at 1.0700, support entered at 1.0650.

The MACD histogram grew less which indicates a sell signal. RSI indicator spent the day around the oversold territory, confirming a renewed higher move.

Forecasts say a move on top of the immediate resistance involves higher chance of testing the region 1.0750. Alternatively, a sell-off has a probability to occur towards mark 1.0650.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017

The renewed figures of British Gross Domestic Product saddened the investors as it presented lower than expected results. The report stalled the current recovery which pushed the spot downwards.

The Cable started the day with a bullish tone. Traders successfully lead the price near the resistance level 1.2500 where the spot met new offers. The GBP/USD stirred away from the barrier in the mid-session of Asian hours and sustained a downward sentiment amid European trades.

The price moved close the mark 1.2450 in the middle part of the day in which the sterling lost its selling impetus.

The 4-hour chart pointed out the 50-EMA being tested by the major. Meanwhile, the 50 and 100-EMAs preserved its bullish pattern, alongside the 200-EMA to appear neutral.

Resistance touched 1.2500, support entered 1.2400.

The MACD histogram increased indicating weak seller’s position. The RSI maintained its position within the neutral grounds.

The major is seen struggling with an aim to build towards the recovery gains. A break over the region 1.2500, the next focus would probably the 1.2600 mark.

The USD/CAD pair had a fairly good trading session yesterday as it tested its range highs and is now trading at just under its range highs. The USD/CAD is expected to remain within the 1.3300-1.3400 region as of the moment and this was very evident during yesterday’s session. The market is now waiting for the string of economic data set to be released within this week. The market is now in a ranging and consolidation mood as traders prepare themselves for the possible repercussions of this said release of various economic data.

Oil prices dropped a bit below $51 yesterday, which is one of the main reasons behind the sudden weakness in the Canadian dollar. The Canadian economy is highly dependent on oil prices and as such, an increase in oil prices would mean an increase in the CAD and vice versa. And since oil prices dropped yesterday, this resulted to a weak CAD as well and caused the USD/CAD pair to go above 1.3350 points before moving towards its range highs of 1.3400 points. The currency pair was then met with a lot of selloffs, and although yesterday was a generally very dismal trading session, volatility levels are expected to increase today as several economic data are scheduled to be released within the week.

The Canadian Trade Balance Data will be released today, and the market will be monitoring this reading since this is a very essential economic basis for the Canadian economy especially due to its trade relationship with US. This is expected to increase volatility in the pair and could cause the USD/CAD to break through 1.3400 and could even reach 1.3500 points.

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