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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016
The GBP/USD pair had a stagnant run during the last trading session after the sudden drop in its value last week. The pair had an average day-to-day range of a minimum of 200 pips. The currency pair is now consolidating between 1.2130 and 1.2550 points, with a possible break in the resistance level of 1.2550 opening the way for the pair to reach 1.2360, allowing the pair to have selling opportunities. The currency pair is now trading within the 1.2557 range and analysts are awaiting whether the pair would break through resistance or come down at the support level.
The GBP/USD continues to be affected by the Brexit, and analysts are speculating the pair will continue resonating its effects for another two years, or until such time that the UK finally completes the referendum.
Market players are now waiting for an announcement from the Bank of England’s Governor Carney, as well as a statement from the Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen and the release of the retail sales data later today. Expect an increased volatility for the pair at the close of today’s trading session. Analysts are generally throwing caution to the wind with regards to transacting with this particular currency pair, especially due to the Brexit and the recent drop in the Chinese economy.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016
The last trading session went bad for the EUR/USD pair due to the release of China’s trade data, which turned out to be extremely lower than expected, with the data showing that the nation’s exports were the most affected sector. The trade data has now led to investors becoming uncertain with regards to the state of the Chinese economy, especially since the Chinese market is one of the largest markets in the world and any movement would certainly affect all major economies. As a result, the Asian stock markets experienced a significant decrease, as well as the S&P500 for the region. Meanwhile, the USD increased its trading value, causing the EUR/USD to reach support levels at 1.1000 points.
The selling for the pair increased in activity which caused the pair to hit support at 1.1000, even going as far as 1.0985. However, the currency pair eventually recovered from the support level and went up to 1.1050 points, with the pair now at the 1.1054 trading range.
Market players are now expecting increased volatility with regards to this currency pair due to the Fed’s statement which is scheduled to be released within the day, as well as the retail sales data to be released from the US. The pair could possibly go into reversal but is expected to immediately get back to its previous trading range during the session.
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 14, 2016
The Canadian dollar inched higher than the USD during the last trading session in the light of the impending US retail sales data to be released on Friday. The risk appetite for the currency pair dropped due to a slowdown of the Chinese economy, with the nation’s exports contracting 10% annually and imports sinking by 2% in spite of a drop in commodity prices.
Oil prices rose due to the weakening of the USD and an offset in crude stocks due to drawbacks from inventories in refined products. Meanwhile, Canadian house prices increased by 0.2% last August, while prices of real estates are now under close monitoring due to an increase in household debt fuelled by lower interest rates, which might become unsustainable for the Canadian economy.
Meanwhile, the Canada-EU Trade deal has already passed another test after the German court denied a petition to block the said agreement. EU Ministers will be having a meeting next week with an aim to discuss this particular deal following concerns that the Belgian opposition might attempt to block the said deal due to the possibility of farm imports overshadowing local farm production.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 14, 2016
The USD/JPY pair is at steady in an uptrend channel for short-term. Nevertheless, the Yen strengthened against greenback despite the weak economy of China.
The price increase for a while but it declined again lower than 104.00 level. It is expected to go lower but the tension dwindled when it reached the 103.50 level. The price bounce back and the traders were able to recover some losses. Henceforth, the pair is trying to gain its momentum back to 104.00 level. The Resistance level is at 104.00 while the Support level is at 103.00 .
In the Moving Averages chart, the prices are at a high level as it continues the Bullish trend. The MACD is within the positive territory but the histogram declined implying the frail command of buyers. The RSI is also moving downward. It is expected for the physiological level to hold at 104.00 level followed by a decline to 103.00 level.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 17, 2016
The GBP/USD pair continued to trade ambiguously after traders and investors expressed their uncertainties over the current state of the sterling pound, especially now that the UK’s strategies for Brexit have also become uncertain. The market has become dependent on the decision between the European Union and UK with regards on how to go about the Brexit, but so far this has not created enough stability for the market players.
The pricing of the GBP/USD pair remained highly volatile for the rest of last week’s session, with the pair having reactions to movements from both the European Union and Britain, creating difficulties for those wanting to choose a trade direction for the pair. In the coming weeks, a significant number of economic data is expected to be released which will greatly affect the movement of this particular currency pair. For this week, investors and traders are expecting the release of the US CPI data, as well as the US Presidential Debate. The UK retail sales data as well as the UK CPI data will also be released within the week. The recent data releases for the UK turned out well for the most part, but the uncertainties surrounding the Brexit will most likely affect the market.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 18, 2016
The USD decreased its value against the JPY during Monday’s trading session after the release of US economic data which turned out to be lower than expected, on top of investor reaction to comments from Fed Chairwoman Yellen last Friday. The Empire State manufacturing index was released last Monday, with the index dropping by -6.80 in October, faring worse than the previous data of -2.0 and falling below the expected +1.1 estimate.
Meanwhile, the data for Industrial Production also fell below its expected reading of 0.3% since the data came out at 0.1%, but was better than the September release of -0.5%. The Capacity Utilization Rate data came out at 75.4%, going a bit higher than the previous data release of 75.3% but still lower than the expected reading of 75.6%.The Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairman recently warned that low interest rates might increase the vulnerability of the economy due to impending recessions.
For the last trading session, the USD/JPY pair traded at 103.779 points, going down by -0.37% or 0.387 points. Market players initially reacted to Yellen’s statement the Fed might wait for inflation rates to go beyond its expected range before inducing an increase in interest rates.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 18, 2016
The CAD traded within its previous range after the USD and commodity prices had a slow start for the week. Fed representatives have kept traders and market players on their toes in light of the expected interest rate hike in December, but the US fundamental factors are shifting the focus on the release of the inflation data in the coming days.
The Canadian Foreign Security purchases data increased by 12.74 billion, with the input of foreign funds in the country marking the eighth consecutive month of positive net investments.
For the USD/CAD pair, the pair decreased by 0.08% during the last trading session, with the currency pair now trading at 1.3129 prior to the expected rate statement release from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. The CAD decreased in value due to the decrease in crude oil prices last Monday, and the CAD will be dependent on the BoC’s rate statement on Wednesday, with the BoC expected to become more dovish in spite of little chances of an interest rate cut within the week, mostly due to the expected interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve later this year.
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EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: October 18, 2016
The EUR/JPY pair has recently experienced a trading high of 116.30, a long shot from September’s monthly low of 112.00 points. The currency pair backtracked from the Fibonacci levels of 23.6 and 38.2 last week after support levels went up to 1114.00-114.12 due to the 20-50 DMA, as well as the Fibonacci levels of 50.0. A breach beyond this level might cause a drop at 113.00 and 112.00, which is in line with the weekly and monthly time frames for the currency pair.
The EUR will be reliant on this coming Thursday’s events, with the European Central Bank seemingly uncertain on whether to increase stimulus to an already expanded policy due to increasing inflation rates and an increase in momentum levels as suggested by growth indicators. However, the ECB still has to remedy the decrease in supply as a means to keep its current program in line and make way for another program, albeit at a reduced level.
Market players are expecting a particularly uneventful ECB statement due to speculations of an unchanged policy and ECB merely repeating its calls for politicians to improve structural reforms in order to boost economic growth in the European Union and to increase inflation in the region.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 19, 2016
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 103.87 points, increasing by 0.01% during the last trading session after a high of 103.98 and a daily low of 103.80 points. The Asian trading session exhibited an ambiguous trading activity while the market waits for the release of the Chinese GDP data for the third quarter of the year. The USD is currently on the uncertain side while the USD/JPY was able to retain its stance in the positive territory in spite of rallying from the 100 handle in September.
However, this ambiguity of the pair can be remedied by the oil bulls, since this can be used as a means to measure risk appetite and market demand. So far, oil has been moving on an impressive note recently, with the AUD/JPY pair having a positive bid on its 4-hour chart from the handle of 76-80.
Although the currency pair is trading on the positive side, analysts are speculating that going above the 104.63 means that this could possibly target the monthly low in May at 105.55 points. Since the pair is currently trading at 103.88 points, then the next resistance point is at the 103.91 range of the 20 EMA, 103.98 range of the 100 SMA and the daily high. Meanwhile, support levels is expected to be at the 103.87 range and could also possibly drop to the 200 SMA of 103.80.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 19, 2016
The EUR/USD pair cannot seem to break through the 1.1030 range and move upwards above this particular range. This is because when the pair tries to move towards 1.1030, the pair has always experienced a lot of selling, causing the pair to be pushed back into the 1.0950-70 trading range.
This activity was also seen during the last trading session, after the EUR/USD pair again tried to go beyond the 1.1030 range but was immediately met with resistance due to the release of the US CPI data, which caused the euro to further drop in value and causing it to revert back to the 1.0960 region. The relatively solid support level of the pair has only caused a minor reversion for the pair after the EUR/USD bounced back to 1.1000 in spite of the significant weakening of the US dollar while traders are waiting for the release of China’s GDP data.
For today’s trading session, there is no major economic news to be expected from the eurozone today, although the US building permits data is set to be released within the day. Market players are not expecting any major movements following this release and bulls will be continuously concerned with the drop in the trading value of the EUR/USD. This is because the EUR will be suffering once the USD manages to bounce back from its weak state if the pair still does not manage to break through the 1.1030 while the USD has not yet regained its strength.
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: October 19. 2016
The AUD/USD pair was able to maintain its hold on the upper range of the 0.76 handle after AUD bulls were unimpressed with the expectations coming from the impending release of the Chinese GDP data. The currency pair is now trading at 0.7672 points after increasing by +0.07%. The AUD streamlined its gains after consecutive macro releases from China, which caused an uncertain outlook for the Chinese economy and curbed a possible catalyst for the AUD, especially since China is one of Australia’s main export destinations.
In spite of this, the AUD/USD has still managed to maintain its current bids after sentiment levels remain supported by recent oil prices. The positive data from the Australian Westpac Index also improved support for the AUD in spite of the weakness exhibited by the USD. After the release of the Chinese GDP data, investors are now waiting for the releases of the US housing data, as well as inventory reports on the EIA crude oil, which will be released during the New York session.
The resistance levels for the AUD/USD is currently at 0.7693, and gains could further extend to 0.7707 and 0.7750. On the other hand, support levels for the pair is currently located at the 0.7637 range for the 5-DMA. If selling pressure for the pair manages to increase, then the pair would drop further to 0.7576 for the 100-DMA and 0.7511 at the 200-DMA.
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AUD/NZD Technical Analysis: October 20, 2016
The AUD/NZD pair is currently trading at 1.0624 after dropping by -0.50% during the last session with a session high of 1.0696 points and a session low of 1.0613. The currency pair has decreased significantly following a negative Australian market report release, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is now considering ways on how to further stimulate economic factors for the nation.
The currency pair plummeted from 1.0696 to 1.0612 on the hourly chart, with the AUD exhibiting remarkable resiliency in the recent bulls in the market. The NZD and AUD are both exceeding expectations and gaining significant profits especially now that the market is primarily driven by oil prices.
Since the currency pair is at the 1.0624 region, resistance levels is expected to be at the last session low of 1.0626, 1.0633, and 1.0667 for the hourly EMA. Meanwhile, support levels are expected to be at the daily S1 of 1.0621, its daily low of 1.0613, and the daily 20-SMA of 1.0594.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 20, 2016
The USD decreased in value in relation to the JPY during Wednesday’s trading session after the drop in US Treasury yields data, as well as speculations from market players that the Federal Reserve might not raise its interest rates before 2016 ends. The USD/JPY pair finished the last trading session at 103.440 points, dropping by -0.40% or 0.417 points.
The market is not expecting any major economic data release from Japan, however, the US housing data decreased by 9% in September, while housing permits increased by 6.3%. The Federal Reserve has also released its Beige Book during the last trading session, which outlines the economic conditions in the US. According to the book, the US economic environment increased by a modest percentage in most regions in the US.
Investors are now awaiting the results of the next US Presidential Debate, while reports from the European Central Bank with regards to their committee decisions on the eurozone’s monetary policy. This can have a significant impact on the market since this will become an indicator on whether traders should expect a risk-on trading session or a risk-off session.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 20, 2016
The GBP/USD pair closed the last trading session with a minimal decrease in its value after closing the session at 1.2260 points after reaching a weekly high of 1.2332 points, which was due to the release of the UK employment data. The employment data showed that the number of employed people in the UK increased up to 106,000 from June to August 2016, although the unemployment rate maintained its previous stance at 4.9%. On the other hand, the data for wages exceeded market expectations after surging to 2.3% excluding bonuses.
However, in spite of the fairly positive jobs data which is expected to persist until the following months, investors and traders are expressing concerns with regards to the possible divergence in inflation rates and salary increases, which might create market problems in the long run.
The resistance levels for the currency pair retreated significantly in the 4-hour chart. The resistance levels moved back from the 1.2320-1.2330 range, while other technical indicators are also reverting back from their previous values but still manages to remain in the positive side of the chart. If the pair breaks below 1.2230, then the pair is most likely to drop further into the 1.21 trading range.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 21, 2016
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 104.13 points after increasing by 0.18% during the last session and has recorded a session high of 104.18 and a session low of 103.91 points. The currency pair is already losing its Asian session bid after the USD finally regained some of its lost value. The Bank of Japan’s Sakura Regional Economic Report has expressed possibilities of the yen increasing its pressure and has decreased the economic assessment for the Tokai region.
Analysts are noting how the USD/JPY pair has remained stable all throughout the yield curve control set by the Bank of Japan, with all major Japanese markets such as JPY yields, Nikkei stock index and the USD/JPY experiencing relatively low volatility during the past trading sessions. The lower range for the USD/JPY pair might also be supported by the simultaneous selling off by Japan-based investors.
Since the current trading value for the USD/JPY is at 104.13 points, resistance levels are expected to be at 104.18 points and 104.20 points. Meanwhile, support levels are expected to come in at the 104.14 range and 104.12 and could possibly drop further to 103.89.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 21, 2016
The USD/CAD pair exhibited extreme volatility during the last trading session which was mainly caused by a slew of Canadian news and events which were consecutively released during the session. First was the release of the CAD’s overnight rate which came out at the expected range of 0.5%. The Canadian monetary policy report also came out and came in short of the previous predictions by 1.1%. This caused the USD/CAD pair to break through the 1.3100 range and also attempted to move towards the 1.3000 region.
The data for the oil inventory reports was also released, as well as the Bank of Canada’s press conference details which showed a massive decrease in the overall inventory, triggering an increase in oil prices and increasing the value of the CAD.
Support levels for the USD/CAD pair is currently at 1.3060, 1.3000 and could possibly dip into 1.2930. Resistance levels for the currency pair is expected to be at 1.3120, which was already broken by the currency pair and could possibly go over the 1.3250 region since the pair is currently at the 1.3141 region. The market is not expecting any major economic news releases from US or Canada any time soon, and traders are still speculating that the effects from yesterday’s subsequent releases would still have an influence on the currency pair’s value.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 21, 2016
The GBP/USD pair closed down the last trading session with little activity after the pair was unable to break through a large-scale resistance at the 1.2330 region. The sterling pound suffered during the first part of the London trading session after the release of retail sales data for September turned out to be a major disappointment for investors and traders. The initial demand for the EUR/GBP also increased significantly due to a reaction from investors after the release of the ECB’s statement, causing the GBP/USD to further plummet to a daily basis of 1.2209 points. However, the pair was able to revert back to its present value of 1.2260 during the New York session.
The general risk for the GBP/USD is currently leaning towards the negative territory, especially if the currency pair fails to go back to the 1.2300 region. The 4-hour chart for the currency pair is exhibiting a bearish-neutral stance, with the pair’s momentum possibly going over the downside with a significant downward curve.
Meanwhile, the pair’s RSI levels could possibly consolidate at 48 and the price could hit the 20 SMA. The currency pair might decline further to the 1.2100 trading range if selling interest gets reverted below the pair’s daily lows.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 24, 2016
The USD/JPY pair reached a daily session high of 104.20 points before closing down the trading session at the 103.82 trading range, with daily lows for the pair recorded at 103.52 points. The USD/JPY received rejection at the 104.00 region during the Tokyo session and is currently at the 103.86 region.
The Japanese economic data for this year took on a generally disappointing note, with export data for the nation plummeting by 6.9%. Import data also dropped by 16.3% at the same period, with trade surpluses worth 498.3 billion yen. Chinese exports also decreased by up to 10.6%, causing the Bank of Japan to face renewed pressure with regards to lowering the value of the yen. However, analysts are saying that a Fed-induced drop in the yen might not resolve the issue of dropping Chinese exports since the yuan could decrease further as compared to the yen once the Fed decides to implement its long-awaited rate hike.
The economic calendar for today is primarily dominated by the Fed, with the possibility of an interest rate hike clocking in only at 70%. This possibility is not expected to increase any time soon due to the impending US national elections which overshadows hawkish sentiment from various policymakers. On the other hand, the yen might become more stable due to dovish statements and bearings.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 24, 2016
The EUR/USD pair closed down last week’s trading session at its lowest levels since March after the pair dipped significantly last Thursday due to a statement from the European Central Bank that it will be maintaining its current economic policies. However. ECB’s Mario Draghi will be maintaining its substantial accommodation until such time that inflation rates revert back to the 2% range which will stave off any major policy changes until December. Meanwhile, consumer confidence for the European Union increased by up to -8.2 from October’s -8.
In the coming sessions, market players are shifting their focus to the reading of the US preliminary Q3 GDP reading, with market players expecting a significant growth in the US economy. For the European Union, the market is currently awaiting the PMI data for the month of October, with data for manufacturing expected to increase significantly and services data regaining some of its stability after declining in September.
The EUR/USD pair has already reached a critical trading range, especially since the pair has been unable to get out of the 1.0840 -1.1460 region. However, the impending imbalance brought about by the ECB and the Federal Reserve could possibly cause the pair to break through this particular range. But for now, the currency pair is expected to drop further into the 1.0505 range, and further drops in value are expected for the coming trading sessions.
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EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: October 24, 2016
The EUR/JPY pair dropped in value for the second straight week, recording session lows of 112.60 last Friday and closing down the last trading session at 112.96 points. The Japanese yen was boosted by statements from the Bank of Japan’s governor Kuroda, who has said that there is little possibility that the financial activity in the region would be facing actual risk-taking anytime soon. Furthermore, Kuroda also added that the BoJ might delay hitting its inflation target of 2%, with the imminent weakness in the euro adding up to the bearish stance of the currency pair.
The EUR/JPY has been trading with the 112.05-116.30 since July, and charts for the currency pair are showing that it could possibly go even lower especially since technical indicators for the currency pair are exhibiting bearish stances. The pricing for the EUR/JPY has also received repeated rejections while attempting to break through its 100 DMA.
However, if the pair manages to go beyond its recorded lows, then this could cause the pair to reach 112.05 points, while a further drop could lead to a speeding up of the pair’s momentum with regards to its bearish stance.
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 24, 2016
The Canadian dollar is moving uptrend because of the oil market price activity. Hence, the pair USD/CAD broker higher last Friday because of signs of market exhaustion keeping a bullish pressure with the US dollar. Traders should also monitor the market activity of oil market as it is substantial in the pair’s proceedings.
The charts formed a shooting pattern last week relative to the crude oil market activity. With this market behavior, it could incite a spur in long positions and could further increase higher than 1.35 level. For the past days last week, a candle pattern was predominant which is advantageous for buyers and send them active. A hammer pattern was also sighted as it leaped to the 1.30 physiological level.
A bullish pressure is about to set in after forming new highs and strong support. This could persist and which is mainly due to the strong position of the US dollars hence, indicative of more bullish pressure. Traders have to find means in case of drawback when go for a long position. It is expected for the physiological level to stand at 1.32 level being the initial support level and could rally going upward.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 25, 2016
The USD increased in relation to the JPY amid the impending interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, along with a heightened demand for assets with higher yields. For the last trading session, the USD/JPY pair closed down at 104.175 points after increasing by up to 0.35% or 0.365 points.
The MarketWatch program of the CME Group reported that market traders are expecting a 70% probability that the Fed will be pushing through with its interest rate hike in December. Positive economic data from the previous session caused a reaction from dollar traders with bullish stances while simultaneously reacting to hawkish comments from the FOMC. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard also commented on Monday that the market would only need a one-time interest rate hike to sustain the economy.
The USD/JPY pair further surged during Monday’s session after a significant increase in the US equity markets caused an increase in demand for high-yield assets. However, this has caused the Japanese yen to decrease in value. The market is not expecting any major economic data from Japan in today’s trading session, and the main determinant of the direction of the currency pair will be the US equity market movement. The USD/JPY is expected to receive more stable support from an increased demand for stocks.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 25, 2016
The GBP/USD pair lost some of its footing during the last trading session and has settled within the 1.2200 region. The sterling pound experienced ambiguity after the release of the UK CBI Industrial data showed a drop in manufacturing orders for October and manufacturing output increasing in the previous quarter and volume levels for export reaching its highest levels in over two years as a result of a weakening in the GBP.
The market is expecting that the GBP will be subject to even more pressure due to the uncertainties surrounding the UK amid Theresa May’s Brexit strategies which were subject to questions and concerns from various lawmakers in the UK government. The GBP/USD generally maintains a neutral-bearish stance in its 4-hour chart, with a somewhat bearish 20 SMA and an absence of directional strength in the pair’s technical indicators in the negative side of the chart. Current support levels for the currency pair is at 1.2170, and analysts are expecting a bearish extension if the pair manages to go even lower than the indicated support level.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 27, 2016
The USD decreased its value in relation to the JPY during Wednesday’s session after yen traders resorted to safety buying as a reaction to the drop in US equity markets. The trading session closed down with the USD reverting back to its previous value against the JPY. The USD/JPY is currently at 104.468, increasing by up to +0.25% or 0.260 points.
Analysts are stating that the USD dropped further due to concerns regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and uncertainties regarding the impending US presidential elections. However, the rallying of the USD is an indicator that there is an increased possibility for a Fed rate hike in December, and risks are possibly leaning on the downside territory. This will then add more focus to the release of the Durable Goods report on Thursday and Advance GDP data which will be released this coming Friday.
Thursday’s trading session is expected to have more double-sided trades since traders are monitoring the general direction of the US Treasury yields, as well as high-risk assets demand. Traders should also consider monitoring the stock market, since the JPY is expected to increase if support levels for the US equity markets starts decreasing.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 27, 2016
The GBP/USD was able to revert back from its losses during the previous trading day after the cable pair dropped down to its lowest levels since the Brexit referendum was announced. The currency pair fell by up to 150 pips during Tuesday’s trading session and hit 1.2081 points before reaching support levels. The currency pair was then able to recover some of its lost value and has recently had a session high of 1.2243 points. The pair was last seen trading at around 1.2225 points.
On the other hand, the expected US economic data came out as very ambiguous, after Services PMI data increased by 54.8 points for October, going above the expected 52.3 range. US home sales data surged by up to 3.1% for September and had a seasonal yearly rate of 593,000 after failing to reach the expected range of 600,000.
Support levels for the GBP/USD are expected to be at 1.2081 and 1.2000, while resistance levels are expected to be around the region of 1.2259 and 1.2297 points.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 27, 2016
The CAD experienced substantial deprecation during Wednesday’s session in spite of a disappointing US crude inventories data. US oil stocks decreased by up to 600,000 bpm last week, going even lower than the expected increase of up to 700,000 bpm. This decrease in oil prices caused a decreasing trend in the Tokyo session after the data for the API inventory exhibited an increase by up to 4.8 million barrels, but crude prices were able to revert immediately after the US Energy Information Administration released its reports. However, these gains were again revoked after traders expressed concerns regarding the OPEC deal.
The USD/CAD pair experienced a significant increase by up to 0.213% during the past session, with the pair now trading at 1.3664 points after the CAD decreased in relation to the USD due to a drop in energy prices. For the rest of this week, CAD traders are expecting the release of the US durable goods data this Thursday. However, the main focus for this week is the flash GDP for the US. The overall growth for the US is showing an increased momentum, and this is expected to cause the USD to significantly increase since this will further cement the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December. However, a further lack of activity from the Federal Reserve might prompt the Bank of Canada to intervene on behalf of the central bank’s monetary policy.
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 28, 2016
The CAD experienced a drop in relation to the USD after dovish statements from the Bank of Canada last week plus corrections in crude oil prices put downward pressure on the CAD. The USD/CAD pair was able to maintain its bullish stance during Thursday’s trading session, with the pair remaining at the 1.3400 region, which is the pair’s current critical range. However, the pricing for the currency pair was able to drop slightly prior to the opening of the New York session.
The USD/CAD was able to go over its current moving averages after its 50-EMA provided ample support for the currency’s price in the daily chart. However, the pair is seen to have probable difficulties with regards to moving lower from the 50-EMA. The moving averages for the currency pair are generally higher, and analysts are expecting resistance levels to be at 1.3400 points while support levels are expected to be at 1.3300.
The MACD indicators for the USD/CAD pair is still consolidating within its levels, while the RSI remains at the overvalued trading range. Analysts are expecting that if the pair manages to go break through the 1.3400 region, then the USD will be able to have more profits upon reaching the 1.3470 range. On the other hand, if the pair drops and hits the 1.3300, then the market is advised to look at the trading range of 1.3250.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 28, 2016
The USD was able to maintain its three-month price advantage against the JPY after a positive US Treasury yields data and growing positive expectations with regards to the Fed rate hike in December. Thursday’s session saw the USD increase further in relation to the Japanese yen, with the USD/JPY bouncing back from its previous losses during the last trading session.
The pricing for the pair remained on the positive territory and was able to reach the 105.00 range during the rest of the trading session. The currency pair was able to go beyond its current moving averages and is currently pointing on the higher side of its hourly chart. Support levels for the currency pair is at 104.50, while resistance levels are set at 105.00.
The MACD indicators for the pair is expected to increase, while the RSI indicator for the pair is currently consolidating within its overbought trading range. The USD/JPY pair will have to maintain its value above 104.50 points in order to retain its bullish stance and create more gains for the pair. Meanwhile, if the pair closes down the trading session at 104.50, then the pair is expected to go even lower at 104.00 points.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 28, 2016
The sterling pound was able to acquire some measure of support following the release of a highly positive GDP report for the region. The GBP has now significantly increased in value. However, further profits for the sterling pound was restrained after the USD was able to recover its previous losses.
The GBP/USD remained a few points away from its current support level of 1.2200 during Thursday’s session, with its most recent reversion stalling within the 1.2150 range which caused the pair’s price rate to drop. Meanwhile, the GBP stayed within the 1.2200 range and increased in value during the London session, but the GBP/USD pair slightly weakened during the New York session. The GBP reverted from the 50-EMA within the 1.2200 range and was able to break through the 200-EMA in its hourly chart. The 200 EMA is is exhibiting a downward trend, while the 50 and 100 EMA is currently at the neutral territory. Resistance levels for the GBP/USD is at 1.2300, while support levels for the pair are expected to be at 1.2200.
The MACD technical indicator for the pair is currently at the middle, and an increase in buyer strength is expected once the histogram indicator moves to the positive side of the chart. However, once the MACD enters the negative side, then this will signal a market takeover by sellers. If the sterling continues to weaken, then the GBP/USD pair is expected to go below 1.2200, wherein sellers are expected to move the currency’s value further into 1.2100. On the other hand, the downward pressure on the sterling might be lessened if the pair goes beyond the 1.2300 range.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 02, 2016
The JPY inched higher against the USD during Tuesday’s trading session as a result of safety buying from market players. This flight to safety was caused by a sharp sell-off in the US equity market after equities dropped due to investor reactions to the FBI’s probe of Democratic Party presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, as well as the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve which had a significant impact on the foreign exchange market.
Profits lagged behind on Tuesday after investors shifted their focus on the upcoming elections, as well as decisions from the Fed, especially since there are concerns from the market that a Trump victory could lead to a Brexit-like situation in the US. The US Final Manufacturing PMI data came out at 53.4 points, going slightly above the expected data of 53.3 points. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was released at 51.9 points. Construction spending data dropped by up to 0.4%, falling short of traders’ expectations of 0.5%.
The Bank of Japan voted last Tuesday to maintain its current interest rate as well as its target for its 10-year government bond yields at -0.1% and 0%. The BoJ also cautioned market players that inflation risks and growth risks are currently on the negative territory.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 02, 2016
The EUR/USD pair increased up to 1.1068, its highest level reached in 3 weeks after the dollar traded significantly lower after the results of the US Presidential poll showed that Trump went one point higher than Clinton with regards to voters’ intentions. Meanwhile, US macroeconomic releases came out on a positive note after the Markit PMI data for October came out at 53.4, its highest data release for 2016.
In spite of positive US data which strengthens the possibility of an interest rate hike in December, the USD is still in danger of dropping in value during the Tokyo session due to the negative market sentiment with regards to the US dollar. The 4-hour chart for the currency pair exhibits high overbought rates for the technical indicators even though the EUR/USD had a bare minimum of additional 100 pips on a daily basis, which is also an indicator that there is a possibility that the EUR/USD could gain more profit.
The EUR/USD will have to go above its daily highs in order to incur more gains since this is the 50% retracements of its most recent drop in value. The movement of the EUR/USD is expected to slow down during the Tokyo session prior to the FOMC meeting which will determine whether the USD will be able to sustain its current bearish stance.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: November 02, 2016
The GBP/USD pair increased up to 1.2280 points but immediately reverted back to 1.2200 points before closing the previous trading session at 1.2230 points. The momentum of the GBP slowed down after the release of the UK Markit manufacturing PMI data for October which plummeted to 54.3 points from its previous reading of 55.5 points. Market speculators are waiting for the results of the Bank of England’s Thursday meeting even though the BoE is not expected to make adjustments to its monetary policies as of the moment.
However, BoE governor Mark Carney relieved the market on Monday after announcing that the governor will be serving another term in order to help the bank’s economic policies adjust to the effects of Brexit. The technical indicators for the pair have maintained their neutral bearings with the 20 SMA now at 1.2200 and other indicators seen at the positive territory but lacking decisive directional strength.
Market players are advised to monitor the 1.2335 region on the upward territory and its support levels at 1.2170 points since the pair will have to break through any of these levels in order to gain significant directional momentum.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 3, 2016
The USD continues to be subject to downward pressure during Wednesday’s trading session due to uncertainties brought about by the upcoming US Presidential elections next week. The USD/JPY pair was unable to maintain its previous levels of 105.00 after a heavy seller resistance within this particular region, causing the currency pair to lose some of its value. Wednesday’s trading session saw the pair remain in the negative territory as the downward momentum for the currency pair continued. Seller pressure also pushed the USD/JPY further below 104.00 and is now approaching the 103.00 trading range.
The USD/JPY pair broke through 103.50 and is well on its way to 103.00. The pricing of the currency pair went over the 100-EMA and is testing the 200-EMA for the pair’s 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, moving averages for the USD/JPY is currently on the downward direction. Resistance levels for the pair are expected to be at 103.50, while support levels for the pair are expected to be at 103.00. MACD indicators for the pair declined, showing seller strength. RSI indicators are now a few pips away from the oversold level which signals a possible downward move for the pair.
If the USD/JPY continues to be subject to downward pressure, then the pair could possible reach its previous low of 102.50. However, there is still a probability that the pair would be able to reach its resistance levels at 103.50-103.80 points.
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AUD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 4, 2016
The AUD/JPY was able to remain in the positive side of the chart as the USD incurred more losses against the JPY and increased pressure on the cross currency pair. The AUD/JPY pair hit session highs at 79.42 points but eventually reverted back to its previous range of 79.10 points.
While the AUD/JPY lost some of its previous gains, the AUD/USD pair increased further and was able to reach its highest range in November after the Australian retail sales data showed a 0.6% increase as compared to September’s data of 0.4%. However, the increase in this currency pair was not enough to outweigh the decrease in the value of USD/JPY.
If the AUD/JPY manages to go over 79.42 could possible lead to a strong resistance level at the 80.00 trading range. If the pair closes the trading session over the zero figure then this could induce more bulls and could possibly cause the pair to go further at 81.52 points. The pair’s support levels is expected to be at 79.00 and could cause a sell-off at the 78.48 and 78.00
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016
The EUR/USD is expected to incur significant gains due to risks that Donald Trump could possibly win the upcoming presidential elections, something that the international market did not anticipate. However, some market players are also saying that the USD would be able to regain some of its strength over a few days and a relief rally would occur should Clinton come out as the winning candidate in the elections. Prior to the opening of the Monday session, Clinton was already cleared by the FBI with regards to her e-mails and this is expected to be good for her campaign and has already caused some currency pairs to open up certain gaps.
The EUR/USD pair has already dropped by up to 70 pips and this is just a sneak peek of what could possibly happen if ever Clinton wins the presidential elections, especially since the market is now anticipating a Clinton victory with Trump’s chances becoming invariably slim.
Market players are expecting that this particular gap in the currency pair will be temporarily covered, while the USD is set to regain some of its lost value during the next trading sessions, especially with the impending presidential elections.
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: November 7, 2016
The USD/JPY pair was able to make a small recovery during last Friday’s session after a series of risk-offs which hit the European and American stock market. However, the pair continues to stay in the negative territory and traded within Thursday’s low levels on Friday’s session. The currency pair had a fairly bearish stance after the pair experienced selling pressure above the 103.00 region. Resistance was encountered by USD bulls along the 103.20 trading range where the 200 EMA is also located. The 200 EMA maintained the pressure on the USD/JPY by resisting all possible recovery moves.
The 50 and 100 EMAs for the currency pair decreased quickly, while the 200 EMA maintained its bearish outlook for the session. Resistance levels for the currency pair is expected to be around the 103.50 range, while support levels are expected to come up at the 103.00 region. The technical indicators for the USD/JPY pair are seen to be slightly bearish, with an increase in the MACD indicator showing a weakness in seller positions. Meanwhile, the RSI indicators for the pair is still consolidating within its undervalued regions.
The USD/JPY pair is expected to have its resistance levels at 103.50 if the currency pair would be able to consolidate over the 103.00 region. However, the USD/JPY might again experience a decline if the pair closes the session with a lower value than this particular level.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016
The USD is expected to increase significantly against the yen during Monday’s trading session as a result of investor reaction to reports that the FBI will be dropping its investigation of US Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s e-mails and will not be filing any charges against the Democratic candidate.
This then means that the Monday session is most likely to be a risky day as investors are expected to go on an aggressive USD and stock-buying spree especially after last week’s sell-offs. Investors are also expected to sell their safe haven assets which were bought as hedge against the probability of a Trump victory, which includes the JPY, EUR, and gold stocks. The USD/JPY dropped to its support region located at the 102.799-102.155 range, going down at 102.533. The pair is expected to rally back to at least 104.03 to 104. 383 if the short-term rally for today’s session proves to be strong enough for the currency pair.
Market players are expected to mainly focus on the upcoming elections even with new economic events taking place, after which, the market is expected to shift its focus on the expected Fed rate hike this coming December. These events are expected to induce an upward shift in the value of the US dollar. The Bank of Japan is expected to release the minutes of its latest Monetary Policy Meeting, while the Average Cash Earnings is expected to be released at 0.2%. Minor reports from the US to be released this Monday are the Loan Officer Survey, Labor Market Conditions, 10-Year Bond Auctions and Consumer Credit data.
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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016
The stronger U.S. dollar overpowers Australian dollar. Last week, the greenback declined as the polls showed a lead of the Republican candidate Donald Trump against the Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton. Now, it has been reversed. Greenback is anticipated to rise up again as the news regarding Hilary Clinton’s issue with the private email server, while she was still in the position as the secretary of the state, has been cleared. This sudden boost in prices is a great opportunity especially for audacious investors and gain profit to low prices and buy stocks to avail funds. Investors are expected to hedge funds to narrow risks in this situation.
Aussie is considerably a risky asset hence, a bullish trend may not create a big change in the Australian dollar. Yet, the next move of this pair cannot be clearly known compared to other major currency such as Yen and dollar. Traders have to be careful on their next move and there are other pairs that are more stable.
The main concern in U.S. is the presidential election while the price activity of Aussie depends on the AIG Construction Index and the ANZ Job Advertisements report. There are other minor news in Australia namely: the Labor Market Conditions Index, Loan Officer Survey and Consumer Credit. However, these are expected not to have a major influence in trading.
Aussie is in a neutral state today and investors should be mindful that the price activity may change drastically as it might go a sudden dive in response with the news. As the U.S. presidential election gets near, the financial market is still shaky with investors being unsure to take a position prior to the election.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2016
It is expected for the pair USD/CAD to have less volatility for this week compared to other currencies with global financial market shaken because of the much awaited U.S. Presidential election. The results will be accounted shortly after the election. Volatility is highly affected by this election depending on who will the elected winner although loonies remains steady. It sways around 1.3400 and its pricing ranges from 1.3500 to 1.3300 physiological level.
If the Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton wins the election, greenback will most likely as most of the financial market is on her side and responses are positive including the stock market. This could also boost the oil prices which will be advantageous since loonies is cinched with the oil market. This means that this would even out the appreciation of U.S. dollars. Thereby, the pair would remain in a consolidated state and keep within the range.
There is no any major news to be publicized from Canada while the U.S. presidential election remains in the spotlight. For traders who positioned long for this pair could continue to do so while those who opted for the sidelines could still wait until all the risks associated with the election diminishes which is even safer.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2016
The GBP/USD is currently one of the most active currency pairs as of yesterday’s trading session after it plummeted from 1.2500 and settled below 1.2400 points after the most recent news regarding the FBI probe of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s e-mails. The GBP/USD is expected to further increase its volatility during today’s session up until the following days especially in the light of the upcoming US presidential elections.
If Clinton manages to win the elections, then could push the USD farther up the positive range and cause the pair to go lower, possibly even crossing below the 1.2300 range. This is highly possible since the sterling pound is not only the most volatile currency as of this writing, but it is currently among the weakest due to complications in the Brexit strategies of the UK government. The ongoing discussions regarding Article 50 might induce more risks and could make the sterling weaker as the discussions progress.
The UK Manufacturing Data is expected to be released during the European trading session, and this is expected to give traders a clearer notion of how the UK manages its Brexit complications. However, the entirety of the market is now monitoring the results of the US elections, and the USD is expected to become more volatile in the coming hours.
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