Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The New Zealand currency had recovered compared to its American counterpart after the data release from China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Meanwhile, the pair established its recovery during the early trades yesterday in spite of the dollar’s strengthening across the board.

The NZD plunged through an upward trend and beat the 0.6950 level in the middle session of Asian trading. Nevertheless, the upswing that last overnight tried to hold back below the 0.6950 hurdle where the NZD/USD found a renewed selling interest. Moreover, the pair rebounded from the level amid the post-EU open and continued towards the 0.6900 support.

The 4-hour chart showed the price pushed the 50-EMA upwards in the morning trades. The pair was unable to expand its growth and further entered the 50-day moving averages before the outset of the North American session. The 200-EMA together with the 100-EMA sustained its bearish signal and the 50-EMA established a neutral stance. Resistance took the 0.6950 level, support approached the 0.6900 area. The MACD histogram traded on the downside. While the RSI oscillator lies in the neutral zone after it departed in the overvalued readings.

A bearish sentiment ruled on Tuesday. It is highly anticipated that the currency pair’s next target is 0.6900. In case the NZDUSD surpasses the initial target, the price is possible to move ahead to the 0.6850 region.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 4, 2017

The manufacturing PMI of the United Kingdom had supported the sterling temporarily amid trades on Tuesday. While the strength of greenbacks had curbed the major gains.
Moreover, the GBP presented a neutral-to-bearish position yesterday. The cable pair reversed its early lows during the Asian session but the pound lose its legs to move ahead the 1.2300 level where major currencies work over new offers.

The pour lowered down in the 1.2245 region, although a renewed bout of buying interest stimulate the British currency to regain its previous losses hence it continued to bounced back towards the 1.23 barrier.

As presented in the 4-hour chart, the price pushed the 50-EMA upwards. Meanwhile, majors failed to escape around the area of 50-EMA thus, it hovered within the region all throughout the trading day. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200). The resistance highlighted the 1.2300, support jump in through 1.2200 mark.

The MACD histogram is set in the centerline. In case the indicator came back to the negative zone, seller’s strength will grow. If it entered the positive territory, buyers have the power to dominate the market. The RSI kept intact in the neutral stance.

According to forecasts, the bearish sentiment will prevail. Most likely, the scenario will exhibit a further downward movement around the 1.2200 region.

The positive sentiment of the oil market yesterday brought favorable impact on commodity currencies including the Canadian dollar.

The U.S dollar recovered in the Asian hours and slowed down within the 1.3470 range when the commodity-linked pair move towards fresh offers as it continued to fell under the 1.3400 support during the onset of EU trades.

Sellers were able to resume their gains amid the European session and pointed to the 1.3260 region. The downward pressure weakened near the 1.3300 while the price made a reversal around the aforesaid level. The price further broke the 200 and 100-EMAs in a descending manner as shown in the 4-hour chart. The 100 and 50-EMAs maneuvered towards a higher position while the 200-EMA is trending neutral. Resistance took the 1.3400 level, support highlighted the 1.3330 mark.

MACD indicator declined which confirmed strength for the sellers. RSI kept intact around the oversold zone.

In case the price had directed below the 1.3330 region, it will open an opportunity for the sellers to continue a short-term downward trend. The next probable target of the sellers are the 1.3190 and 1.3260 marks. The USD/CAD is able to bounce off few of its losses if it moves back on top of the 1.3330.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017

The positive data from the Euro zone supported the single European currency which further strengthened versus its US peer. Based on the EU statistical data, the inflation rate of the European countries is fast growing. While the favorable Markit Services and Composite PMIs of France and Germany further reinforced the EUR.

Technically, the major pair maintained a mid-term downward channel within a lower boundary. However, the 4-hour chart showed a limited upside potential. The Fiber reversed some of its losses during the trades on Wednesday. The buyers drove the prices towards the 1.0450 level where an upward impetus gradually disappear in the middle session of the EU hours. After reaching the aforesaid level, euro return on its recent region where it stayed.

The 50-EMA is in a neutral position and have been tested by the price in the mentioned time frame accordingly, while the 200 and 100-EMAs headed downwards.

The EUR/USD hovered under the moving averages as the level of resistance touched the 1.0450 and support entered at 1.0400.

The MACD histogram increased which indicated a weak position for sellers. RSI moved in the neutral zone and departed from the oversold area.

As it was mentioned in the forecast, the EUR is expected to kept intact in the pressured area but recovered the 1.0500 barrier. Buyers are able to lead the pair towards 1.0550. A break down from the 1.0400 handle will cause weakness for the EURUSD as well. The initial target of the sellers is 1.0350.

The GBP/USD significantly increased in value during the previous trading session after the USD dropped following the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes. The market was somewhat docile during the rest of yesterday’s session but immediately picked up after the release of the minutes during the North American session yesterday, and has caused the USD to undergo corrections across the board.

However, the reaction of the GBP/USD pair to this phenomenon is somewhat docile compared to other USD-related currency pairs, and this is expected to keep the bulls on their toes. Initially, the GBP/USD pair was expected to rise exponentially since the UK construction PMI data clocked in a highly positive reading and exceeded its market expectations of 54.2, and the FOMC minutes lacked the expected hawkishness from the market. But the reason why this currency pair’s growth was significantly limited is that the various risks and uncertainties surrounding the Brexit process continues to dog a lot of traders due to the general confusion within this issue. This is why a number of speculators are saying that the GBP/USD would be receiving the shorter end of the stick once the USD regains its strength.

Although the UK is not expected to release any economic data for today, the US will be releasing a number of important economic data along with the highly essential NFP report, which is expected to determine the overall market sentiment for the rest of the month. If these set of data comes out as positive, then the USD could possibly rebound and could be sustained until the end of January.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 5, 2017

The USD/CAD pair exhibited a significantly large correction during yesterday’s trading session after the USD lost some of its value due to the absence of a hawkish undertone on the minutes of the FOMC meeting which was released yesterday. The USD/CAD only weakened further since it had already failed to reach the higher trading regions. The USD/CAD pair is now sitting just over the 1.3300 trading region.

Since oil prices have been generally positive during the past few days, the market expects that its effect would be felt in the current value of the CAD as well, and true enough, the currency pair dropped yesterday while the market went into a lull. The Canadian dollar then extended its losses after the release of the FOMC minutes, which triggered the weakening of the USD and therefore increased the downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.

There are no major economic news releases from the Canadian economy for today’s session. However, the US is expecting to release a number of major data, including the Unemployment Claims data, and the ADP employment report. These data are determinant of whether the market would experience added volatility or otherwise, depending on the readings. The US will also be releasing the NFP report tomorrow, which is considered as a critical determinant of market volatility. Traders are encouraged to evaluate the effects of these news releases on the currency pair before trading in on the USD/CAD.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 9, 2016

The kiwi expand its recovery against its U.S peer during the middle session of Asia. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD is unable to move further the 0.7050 level and bounce back after it touched the aforesaid level.

During the EU session, the pair remained in a tight range that lies in the middle of 0.7000 and 0.7030. Another session of selling interest drove the New Zealand dollar downwards prior to the opening of the NY trades.

The price had a steep decline towards the 0.7000 range and extended its losses. According in the 4-hour chart, the price pushed the 50 and 100-EMAs higher and the 200-EMA was tested. It continued to struggle together with the neutral 200-EMA in the course of the EU hours. Moreover, the 50-EMA ascended, at the same time the 100-EMA moved southwards. Resistance touched the 0.7050, support is seen at 0.7000.

The indicators en route north around the bullish zone. The MACD histogram increased, favoring buyer’s strength. The RSI lies in overvalued territory.

The technical represents a bullish momentum. A The technical picture presents a bullish tone. A rapid price decline on top of the 0.7050 impedes the increase within the 0.7100 resistance level.

There is no major economic news anticipated in the United Kingdom last Friday. While the data from U.S affected the market as traders awaits for the figures of trade balance and labor data.

After it reached the 1.2430 level in the Asian session, the GBP/USD weakened and shifted downside. The British currency returned to the support region 1.2400 where it met a stable support during the morning trades.

The cable pair extremely toggles in a narrow range amid EU session waiting for a renewed stimulus. Furthermore, a selling interest arises before the onset of the NY trades as it pushed the pair downwards.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price drove the 50 and 100-EMAs higher. The pair remained in the middle of the neutralize 200-EMA and bearish 100-EMA in the earlier trading. Resistance entered the 1.2400, support touched the 1.2300 region.

The technicals had a moderate reversal from the overbought zone. The MACD indicator traded in the downside. The RSI stayed around the overvalued readings.

In case the GBPUSD breakout within the 1.2400 resistance level upon the establishing of buy orders, the price recovery may extend through the marks 1.2450 and 1.2500. However, a negative signal and further risk easing would emerge when a movement push through the 1.23 level. Furthermore, sellers were able to send the pair towards 1.2200.


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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 9, 2017

The USD/CAD has recently been in a reticent mood during the past few trading sessions, and analysts are speculating that the USD/CAD pair could possibly be in for a good trading session since oil prices have now become buoyant and is expected to remain buoyant since the cutbacks in the production of oil are expected to be implemented anytime soon, thereby spelling good news for the Canadian dollar. The Canadian trade balance data as well as the employment change data also came out exceeding initial investor expectations, and this means that the CAD would be receiving substantial support both in the long term and short term, and the Canadian dollar’s value could be well on its way to increasing.

In a much more normal market setting, a scenario such as this would automatically lead to a correction in the USD/CAD. However, the USD is also gaining strength alongside the CAD, and this is expected to offset if not completely counter the effects of the recent rise in the value of the Canadian dollar. This situation is then expected to keep the pair within a tight trading range in the short term period. Friday’s session was a testament to this scenario, as the currency pair made a short drop at 1.3200 points but immediately went up above 1.3200 after the release of the economic data from the regions before finally settling just below 1.3250 points. There are no expected economic data to be released from both the Canadian and US economy for today, and this could help the USD/CAD to extend its gains towards 1.3300 points.

A lot of analysts have been initially saying that the GBP/USD pair will be the currency most likely to experience the majority of the adverse effects of the recent surge in the USD’s value, especially since there is a lot of confusion and discussion going on with regards to the provisions of the Brexit process, particularly with its stakeholders, who all have to step up their game in the next two years. This is why the GBP/USD pair has recently become more susceptible than ever, and traders are advised against selling any bounces in the GBP/USD pair. The downward trend in this particular currency pair is very evident, since its bounces have been very few and far in between, with deep corrections dogging the pair’s direction.

Friday’s session proved this particular downtrend in the pair, since the market has seen the currency pair stop its consolidation and plummeted through 1.2400 points and eventually through 1.2300 points. The NFP report as well as the average wages data from the US also came in last Friday, with the data showing an increase in average wages, thereby increasing chances that the Federal Reserve would be soon stating its next interest rate hike. The Scottish Prime Minister has also released some comments over the weekend, saying that Scotland would most likely undergo yet another vote with regards to “Scexit”, or Scottish independence from the UK. During the controversial Brexit vote, it can be recalled that Scotland initially voted to remain in the European Union but eventually had to concede after majority of the UK states voted to “exit” from the EU. This is only one the many issues surrounding the Brexit process, and will be incessantly putting the sterling pound in great risk.

There are no major economic data expected today from both the UK and the US, and the market is expected to be continuously dominated by the existing market trends for today’s trading session,and the USD strength is expected to be the driving force behind the market for today.

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