Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 2, 2017

The EUR/USD pair waited for the FOMC minutes throughout the trading day on Wednesday, the minutes are expected to be issued during the American session. Aside from this pair, there are other many currency pairs that desire to know the thoughts of Fed members regarding the future rate hikes with expectations to help them determine the short-term trend for the U.S dollar.

This ensures that the single European currency was fixed in a very tight range at 30 pips, while markets in a long position understand that any choppy movement would lead to an unprofitable trade. Since the focus is centered on the positioning of trades prior the major news events coupled with large trends once the news was issued.
It became more interesting due to the subsequent news later this week which has equal of importance with concerns of the greens. It further opened the door for the possible reversal by the FOMC with the approaching news events.

The FOMC failed to achieve its target, however, most of the text remained unchanged, particularly the talks of future outlook that came in lower than market expectations. This resulted in a sudden minor shock for the USD, met some buying and pushed the bucks to a tight range until the end of the course after the minute's publication.
Considering all the projections formulated the entire day, the minutes conversely disappointed the markets which further triggered choppy data by means of the ADP report released earlier the day.

There are reports that confirmed Jerome Powell as the next head of the Fed Reserve but caused the dollar to weaken later this day, nevertheless, the effect of this news would likely be temporary.

Ultimately, the attention was turned towards the British pound as there are no releases from the United States or the European region for today. Hence, it is safe to say that there is some tight ranging and consolidation within the euro-dollar pair amid the trading day while waiting for the US employment statistics tomorrow which could roughly confirm the rate increase in December.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2017

The GBP/USD softened during the trading course on Tuesday and it closed the day with choppiness with regards the British pound. The sterling lost its strength in the morning and successfully regained its entire losses until the closing of the day. As of this writing, the GBP is trading comfortably on top of the 1.3150 level. The rebound muddled the scenario relative to the direction of the British currency.

On one hand, the American dollar appears to remain unchanged throughout the course yesterday. US President Donald Trump is currently on a trip to different Asian countries, the twitter seems to be a good venue since Trump is outside US and sarcastic comments are not present also during this period. Therefore, it bolstered the greenbacks to maintains its position. The dollar received further support from the finishing touches on tax reform plan as the program is going through various stages. The pound was mainly bullish followed by a decline from the last fall that occurred during the BOE rate hike, however, it gave a gloomy economic perspective.

Despite the 2 cents decrease of the sterling on that day, it was able to recover within the day and worked out to acquire additional cent from the price on the same day. This indicates bullish signals towards the GBP while the market is worried about eliminating chances for more rate increase and starts to recede slowly.

Ultimately, both the United Kingdom and the United States will not release any major economic data throughout the day. Bullishness is expected to prevail amid the day. An increase from the Cable pair has the tendency to weaken and remained steady but the price could lead the price higher in the short term.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 9, 2017

The British currency declined throughout the trading day on Wednesday as fears continue to influence the sterling relative to the Brexit negotiations, as well as the potential of Britain to maintain its economic stability during this period. The GBP went down to the 1.31 level for a short period of time prior the rebound from that point, which allowed the currency to close the day over the 1.31 mark but remained to be weak as of this moment.

Another reason for the decline of the GBPUSD is the continuous dollar strengthening that boosted the discussion on the tax reform bill. The U.S. dollar trades with little strength since the approval of the tax bill by President Donald Trump and his team. However, the confirmation is not yet through since it is currently brought into law while there are reports about the possible delay of the actual implementation. On the other hand, some say that Trump will not allow this to happen amid the uncertainties regarding this matter that would likely influence the greenbacks in the near-term.

Moreover, the GBP was supported by the entire talks concerning the slow Brexit process which continued to bog down every single day. The sterling was also affected by the pessimistic UK economic outlook brought by the latest rate announcement by the BOE, this could possibly be the reason for the continuous trading near the range lows by the Cable pair despite rate increase. Aside from the fact that the market priced in the rate hike, it further expects more from the Bank of England but the bank did not provide some positive statement that put pressure on the pound.

Ultimately, the United States or the United Kingdom will not release any major report. Therefore, consolidation is projected on either side of 1.31 mark throughout the day. The support came in at 1.31 region which is very strong along with sudden bounces which indicates that the pound is not subjected to any decline sooner or later.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 10, 2017

The single European currency paired with the U.S. dollar drove higher during Thursday session since the trade surplus in Germany has expanded, while the U.S. initial claims rebounded. Moreover, the German growth is predicted to overcome its previous outlook as the inflation is projected to remain muted capping the upside in the pair.

The EURUSD had moved upwards and pushed back on top of the 1.1625 level near around the 10-day moving average, which serves as a support in the short-term. Further support hits the 1.1550 weekly lows. A close over the 1.17 region could possibly negate the formation and triggered consolidation. The negative momentum was seen declining as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator is printing in the red, linked with an ascending trajectory that gives signs of consolidation.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2017

The EUR/USD pair had been moving unsteadily in the past few days as the pair moves up and down with high volatility as the greenback moves without a specific direction in the present global tone. The dollar is appealing to be bought in the short term yet the market maybe thinking twice. Although, there are instances where the rally of the dollar where it is being sold at a faster rate.

This maintains the pressure in the dollar and which would be advantageous for the euro. What’s keeping the market optimistic for the dollar is a rate hike from the Fed in December although, the market does not strongly believe this. There are no specific indications yet with indecisiveness of Fed members while the data move at a steady pace.

This has kept the dollar weak with any news or data to be released. In the past 24 hours, the euro decline to the area of 1.1750 which is seen to move down in general. The latest relevant news would be the continuation of the development of missiles from North Korea and the ongoing investigation on the accusation of Russian intervention in the US Presidential elections. These events would drive the dollar down.

For today, the speech of Draghi are expected during the London session but it is unlikely that he would discuss the monetary policy. Hence, traders should get ready for choppiness in trading this pair and be cautious in the liquidity of the pair.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 20, 2017

The British pound persisted to move at a fixed rate but it is the opposite to the euro currency because of the news from German coalition talks. The pound has taken advantage of the low dollar as it rose to 1.32 level. However, it is still to be observed if this move higher.

The latest news from Germany will most likely affect the British pound as well as other countries of the Eurozone with the ongoing Brexit talk. Thinking about it, the current situation facing Merkel in Germany may be similar with U.K. Prime minister Theresa May as she also fights her own battle. However, it should be considered that any changes to cause uncertainty would most likely affect the Brexit as well. This will not be favorable to Germany or U.K. Nevertheless, both countries would want a good transition and come to a conclusion that would be beneficial for both ends.

Any uncertainty in Germany would slow down the talks and look forward to an agreement which could complicate more things further and be disadvantageous for the pound in long-term. Aggressive leaders are best suited in the current situation as they are looking for a conclusion. However, some domestic concerns are hampering the process which gets their attention. For short term, the British pound could have some gains because of uncertainty from Germany. However, this could have a negative impact on the U.K. for the long term if this situation is prolonged.

For today, the British pound seems to be put under pressure as it depreciates against euro during the London session. There is no major news from the U.S. or from the U.K. in other times of the day. Consequently, the consolidation with a bearish tone is anticipated to take place today.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2017

The British currency had slightly whipsawed amid the daytime trading and closed the day with an unchanged position which appeared to be hardly affected by the subsequent events happened in Germany. The United Kingdom is currently dealing with ongoing issues on economy and politics, as the pound could possibly be swayed. Moreover, there are more concerns that the country needs to deal with instead of other matters related to the European region.

The sterling could possibly get a short-term and limited benefit because of the problems in Germany. It could also soften the German position as well as the EU leaders due to Brexit talks, however, brought temporary relief for the team of PM Theresa May. Nevertheless, whatever kind of benefit they could acquire from this is expected to be short-lived due to its endless process and either side will move towards on their planned position due to domestic concerns from their countries, respectively. Eventually, the market might realize this which could be the reason that after the initial sway, the GBP was able to adjust based on reality and closed the day nearly unchanged.

The economic data from the United Kingdom remains choppy which would likely trigger concerns for the Bank of England. Meanwhile, the struggle of PM May to deal with her political woes continues which shifted her focus from the Brexit. Considering the events in Germany, the process became dull and complicated which is unacceptable for both sides.

Ultimately, there are no major releases from the United States but Britain will have its inflation report hearings which should be monitored in order to have a clearer picture for the economy and inflation that could possibly have a large impact towards the timeline of the next rate increase.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 22, 2017

The GBP/USD pair remains trading in a tight manner since yesterday, which is similar to the market’s activity. After dealing with high volatility on Monday, the traders were able to prepare themselves for a greater battle beforehand which was actually marked by the ranges that reduced over time. While the market is currently waiting for future events that will take place.
According to projections, this week would be a busy time for pound traders due to some positive actions and sudden stabilization of the sterling amid the issues on domestic politics and other foreign concerns in the wake of uncertainties in Germany.
None of these were able to bring an impact against the GBP so far, as the British currency continuously trading in a robust manner for this week. This is expected to be put to test for today due to some major economic releases scheduled from the United States and the United Kingdom.

In Britain, the autumn forecast statement to be issued during the late London session will essentially provide assumptions regarding the current status of the economy and will also give future events of the economy. This data is annually published which could also possibly provide hints about the considerations of the Bank of England regarding inflation and rate increase in the first half of 2018. Hence, any signs of hawkishness within this report is expected to move the sterling to the 1.34 level.

In the American session later will be releasing the FOMC minutes that is highly anticipated by the market in order to determine the Fed’s decision towards rate hike next month. There is high chance that the Federal Reserve will allow the raise in December, however, the markets are waiting for some confirmation signal along with the timeline of the rate increase. The pound will experience a very volatile day.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2017

The EUR/USD pair anticipated to have fluctuations from the market but turned as the FOMC minutes is anticipated for the incoming long weekend. There is an active trading activity in the market instead of the anticipated fewer ones. The dollar has lost its leverages and was moving slower over the course of the day. The trend only gained a better traction after the release of the
FOMC minutes.

The EUR/USD pair moves higher than the area of 1.1750 in a subtle manner with dimmed the activity that happens prior to the release of the FOMC minutes. There is not much anticipated from the market since the Fed is presumed to maintain its current stance, most especially that the rate hike in December will most likely push through. The euro moved slightly higher at the beginning of the day and proceed to move up during the course of the day.

The FOMC minutes gave a dovish tone which is not surprising. The rate in December has almost already priced in the market although the market is more focused on the possibility of a further rate hike. There are some members who think that the rate hike has not reached the target mark which could lead to another rate hike but it is also unlikely unless the inflation has improved along with the incoming data. Consequently, the dovishness of the dollar resulted in an increase of the pair towards the area of 1.18 which is seen to hover steadily above this as of the moment.

Today is the start long weekend in the US on account of Thanksgiving and there will be no economic news anticipated to be released from the U.S. as well as from the Eurozone. Traders should anticipate consolidation in the trend with a bullish tone for the rest of the day.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 27, 2017

The British pound is trying to make use of the situation which has been surging in the past few days as the dollar has weakened. This began after the FOMC minutes released a surprising dovish statement that supported the GBP/USD pair and rallies since then. This is yet to be observed if this rally will last.

Most of the traders are ambivalent of this uptrend since this happened due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. After the holiday, a correction was observed given that traders are going back following a long weekend and investors are gaining some profits where it makes the minutes not a dovish sentiment. This could result in buying of the dollars which would further induce correction in trading.

Other than that, Brexit is in a difficult situation right now and if anything happens, a massive breakthrough is anticipated in the talks in the few weeks to come. There are some investors who assume that the U.K. would choose to cancel the deal if they will not benefit from it. If this is the case, then Britain would be on a losing end for the economy. Hence, the pound would most likely continue its rally with the ongoing matter on Brexit.

There is no major news from the U.K. or the U.S anticipated to come out today. Consequently, it is likely to have some consolidation during the first half of the day. There may be some correction for the day when traders go back to the U.S. from their holidays.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 28, 2017

The EUR/USD was reversed following its rally on Monday. It broke higher than the resistance level reached during the Friday session. Profits and losses switched back and forth for the bonds and gilts in the event that there are not much events in the economic calendar which makes the investors cautious on the next step for the U.S. tax plans. All eyes are focusing on Brexit and Political concerns in Germany where it seems that buying on the lows became natural scenarios as the end of the year approaches. The confidence data that came out from Italy remains very low but was rebounded as it became more appealing on Wednesday along with reports including the U.K. credit data and confidence figure from the Eurozone and German preliminary HICP readings for November.

The euro major pair broke higher than the resistance line but pulled back soon after which led to a much higher high on Monday. The rate is presumed to test the resistance level close to the September high at 1.2092. There is a possibility for a breakdown in the support level at 1.1830 and the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1811. The MACD also shows positive results amid a good momentum as it prints in black with an inclined sloping trajectory which will most likely results in a higher exchange rate. On the other hand, the RSI was reversed following its climb, indicating an improving positive impetus of the pair.


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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: November 29, 2017

The American dollar traded sideways during the trading session on Tuesday, however, moved above the 1.28 handle and slightly broke out on top of that area. Moreover, the market seems to pull back from that level due to the struggle at the recent high. In the past 36 hours was slightly parabolic, which could require a pullback to establish an upward momentum. This market is expected to be greatly influenced by crude oil as the oil industry rolls over a little, and caused the Canadian dollar to drop its value. With this, the market is filled with plenty of volatility which makes it complicated to hover on large positions as expected. Building a position favorable on your side is the most feasible way to advance, while the level below 1.2750 would likely the support based on the previous order flow.

Contrarily, a cut through above the 1.2833 handle will generate a renewed high that could possibly offer the right buying opportunity. The area below 1.27 is projected be very supportive, but a breakdown underneath the 1.2675 region would be very negative which could push the market downwards until the 1.25 handle.

It is possible for the volatility to remain as an issue, considering that the oil sector was uncertain about its views. The high volatility that surrounds the oil market consistently passes through this market. Generally, the upside seems favorable amid it is characterized by a “risk off” move that is somewhat overdue.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: December 4, 2017

The kiwi and the greens traded sideways during the onset of the trading session last Friday, however, met decent support around the 0.6815 region to gradually increase. Nevertheless, the announcement made by General Flynn regarding his willingness to work against the White House has pushed the American dollar downwards in general. As expected, this caused wide-ranging impact throughout the world versus the major currencies, as the New Zealand dollar did not make any difference. But the level above 0.69 is resistive which extends through the 0.70 mark eventually.

Upon breaking the 0.70 area, it seems that buying would become interesting and it remains to be seen before obtaining some advantageous type of exhaustive candle. The level below 0.68 has massive support and breaking down that area after a rollover would offer a long-term opportunity to “sell and hold”.

As of this writing, the search for an opportunity to sell the market is ongoing, particularly, those that contain a significant amount of pessimism since the public is highly concerned on New Zealand’s Labour party expenses. Meanwhile, fixing and signing of the tax bill by the US Congress could help the American dollar. The previous rally amid the fluid-based situation would probably end as an overreaction. Moving out from the market and allowing the market to cool off could be the most preferred way to trade alternatively.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 6, 2017

The euro major pair declined in the past 24 hours but with unknown reason. The euro has a weak overall trend in the market and there is lesser strength in the dollar. The movement has been movings steadily which was sufficient for the pair to decline lower than yesterday’s trading. It reached the level as low as 1.18 prior to rally as it trades higher than the 1.1820 at the moment.

The market seems to be waiting on the sidelines as traders are observing the movement, particularly of the dollar. The rate hike will happen soon that causes last-minute uncertainty whether this will be pushed through this month. Also, concerns regarding the tax reform bill are also being considered if this will passed by the Senate which could take some time and traders have to wait for the next movement.

Being the last month of the year, traders should be patient whether this will further develop amid holidays. This adds more pressure to traders to be careful in betting large positions and better to be patient before deciding which way to go. As a result, the dollar is now moving steadily as the euro continues to decline at a slower pace since many currency pairs are attempting to maintain within the borders of the trading range that has been known in the past few months.

There is no major news from the eurozone except for the ADP employment report from the U.S. This is prior to the release of the NFP for the week. Pressure will still be present in trading this pair as the market waits for the development of the news.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2017

The Aussie dollar imposed volatility amid Tuesday’s trading session and reached the higher level at 0.7580. However, it rolled over later that day due to stronger-than-expected results of CPI data in the United States. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will have an announcement today which could possibly provide further clarity.

Moreover, the Australian dollar had initially rallied during the course yesterday but seems to have a pessimistic mood due to money flow in the US. A break down from that point might push through the 0.75 support mark which is highly supportive. The market is expected to continue its volatility, but there is a tendency for a break down. A breakdown under the 0.75 mark will drive the market lower to 0.7350 zone, which is a previous support.

Eventually, a rally from that region would largely depend on the Fed Reserve and its sentiment towards the interest rate hike. A hawkish stance could possibly weaken the AUD and the short term. However, it seems that the Fed would be dovish and will push the market to the upside. Nevertheless, the level above 0.7650 is greatly resistive which could make the upside limited. Hence, the Fed may shock the markets that they will no longer raise rates completely.


Attachment 29987

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 18, 2017

The British pound trades in a strong manner since the day started even despite the lack of fundamental developments. Also, there are not much economic releases on Friday which allow the consolidation and ranging for the price action within that day. At the same time, there are reports about increasing support for the US tax reform bill during the American trading session, it further indicates that the bill is expected to be passed amid the course of the current week. Hence, this enables the US dollar to grow and pushed the GBP/USD pair downwards during Friday’s late session. When the bill is approved, the strength of the greenbacks is expected to resume in the near term, until the year ends. In turn, the Cable pair will continue to be under pressure throughout this period, however, the level of impact remains unclear.

On weekend, British Prime Minister Theresa May reiterated her determination to push through the Brexit process and she further stated her willingness to deal with it in the short term concerning the payment that the United Kingdom need to settle along with the possible trade access. These two factors are the most important elements to consider but the UK and the market seem worried about these. The process appears to be a little bit of delay but the encouraging speech delivered by PM May successfully give a slight raise to the sterling earlier this morning.

Ultimately, there is no major news from the US or the UK for the rest of the day while some consolidation and ranging are expected much for today. Moreover, volatility might get a slight boost upon the onset of the US session and further updates with regards the tax bill.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 20, 2017

The GBP/USD currency pair was able to move ahead of the American dollar, as the USD lower in price amid smooth approval process of the tax bill. The passage was projected to support the dollar to increase, however, the effect was completely different. The market’s reaction remains uncertain not until the bill is already passed through in one of the US Houses and waiting for the Senate approval. However, there could be some delay due to procedural problems which could possibly place some pressure on the greenbacks that could further lead to uncertainty. As expected, the tax reform bill will be enacted by the Senate on a very tight margin and further requires the President’s signature to seal in the law. The whole scenario would likely be completed within this week, hence, the volatility in the USD should keep going until it happens.

The Brexit process does not have much improvement over this week and it is predicted to continue until New Year. Definitely, there will be some strong development in the process since the leaders on both sides clearly stated about the completion of a deal which may take a matter of time prior accomplishing the agreement. This notion seems to provide support for the pound in the past couple of weeks.

Ultimately, BOE Governor Mark Carney will have his speech but the impact to the market is predicted to be minimal. The market trend for today would likely be led by the USD and tax bill legislation. It is believed that the greens should gain more strength in the short and medium term in order to maintain the GBPUSD active.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 21, 2017

The euro paired against the U.S. dollar still dominates the market as it positions strongly, although the volatile is starts to lessen come to the end of the week. The volatility would be much more minimize by the end of the week with the year about to end.

The U.S. tax reform bill was successfully passed that require Trump to seal it after which is anticipated soon. This is considered as an achievement for Trump as everyone in the team worked hard for this. It would also be beneficial for the large companies and gain more profit which would bring in more jobs in the U.S.

Trump has stabilized his position at the top which would now shift his attention to other bills such as the healthcare reform bill. However, the stock market and foreign exchange of the U.S. dollar did not have that much vigor, as the dollar is starting to decline recently compared to its position last week. It has been all over the market which supported the euro instead.

The EUR/USD pair was seen to touch on the 1.19 level but moved after into a consolidated yesterday. Trades are being traded just currently below the said level. When it comes to news, the final GDP data from the U.S. is anticipated today but there will be no other economic news to be published from the Eurozone. Hence, the trading range is presumed to tighten especially since the holidays are approaching.


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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 22, 2017

The Aussie dollar traded sideways initially amid Thursday’s trading session, however, it moved higher following a weaker numbers of American GDP. This further caused the greenbacks to decline while providing a slight increase towards the Australian dollar during the day.

Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair trades in a low-volume at the margin during the day and traders are concerned to the approaching holidays in contrast to the currency markets.

It can be assumed that a break down under the 0.7625 area will push the market downwards reaching the 0.75 handle. It appears that the AUD will have some difficulty in moving higher to the upside, as a result, sellers manage to conduct a return. Perhaps, the market is easier to short at higher levels, but for now, it is suggested to stay on the sidelines until the volumes return.

There are some resistance barriers throughout the way which could make a difficult course to drive upwards. Hence, buying the commodity-linked pair seems to be under pressure. On the other hand, there’s no any shorting opportunity due to rally attempts by the market. The ability to roll over will push the market quickly, but it is impossible to see until after the New Year’s Day. Therefore, the market is expected to be difficult to deal with.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 26, 2017

The euro against the U.S. dollar started with a tight trading week in a facile environment in consideration of the current market situation. Majority of traders are on a vacation this Christmas holiday season and the New Year whereas most of them would not working. This would result to lower volatility and liquidity that would limit the range of trading for this week.

There is also not much economic data on the calendar with fewer fundamentals in the next days to come. The steady dollar was supported by the tax reform bill, which was recently passed by the Senate and signed by the U.S. President. This would benefit m0st of the companies with lots of tax benefits which is as much as important to Trump and his team. At the same time, this is foreseen to improve the labor market and boost the economy in the succeeding years.

Hence, the dollar gained a short-term boost from the bill which will most likely be in effect for this week. The euro is being traded in a right range with minor consolidation in the past few months. Although, the fundamental new was not enough to successfully break the trading range.
It is yet to be discovered where the trend will range and if it is sufficient to sustain the pair within its range until January.

For today, there is not much economic news that is anticipated to be released from the eurozone or from the U.S. It is holidays in most part of Europe, which could result to tight trading range and consolidation throughout the day.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2017

It was a holiday in the majority of the places in Europe, including the U.K. that makes it not surprising if the pound persisted to consolidate and traded within a tight range for the most part of trading yesterday. The GBP/USD pair falls within a tight range since there is few major economic news.

It will not be surprising to have lesser volatility and liquidity this holiday season. At the same time, there is not much placing of trades and more on profit-taking in the past week, which can be seen mostly in the smaller market such as bitcoin. Although, it was not that obvious for pound despite there is a bigger market that is why grabbing the opportunity of any selling of this pair prior to holidays is relevant.

Come the second week of January, both liquidity and volatility will most likely gain momentum. Until then, traders should get ready for choppiness within a range near the end of the year. The market has reopened following a long weekend yet, there is still fewer traders this week since most still wanted to extend their vacation until New Year. Hence, consolidation of the pair within a tight range will persist in the next few days.

When it comes to data the Conference board’s Consumer confidence data from the U.S. is anticipated to be released today but this would not bring much volatility in the market. There is no major economic news from the U.K. Thus, there will be low trading and slow movement in the market for the rest of the day.


Attachment 30087

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 8, 2018

The New Zealand dollar was able to break higher upon the opening session on Monday, however, took a reversal throughout the week to move lower and fill the gap. In line with this, a sufficient support was seen and bounced to the upside. The day closed with a slight formation of a hammer pattern, which implies that buyers will return to the market.

It is possible that the Kiwi dollar will resume driving near the top of the overall consolidation zone, marked on the chart around 0.75 area. The 0.68 region below is considered highly supportive and basically the “floor” in the NZD/USD pair.

It remains to be seen prior shorting this market despite the noticeable breakdown underneath the bottom of the hammer for the week appears to be negative. But 0.70 level seems to be supportive which requires some time before taking long positions.

In case that commodity markets would rally in general, the upward trend would likely to continue. However, the current situation is slightly overbought which could possibly be followed by a pullback that should only offer value going forward. This is because the American currency was very weak versus other currencies. The market remains to have plenty of noise but a significant amount of bullish pressure is expected in order to continue moving forward. The highs will be tested again and will eventually break out.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 9, 2018

The GBP/USD pair trades around a tight range yesterday considering the fact that consolidation period is already expected in the markets. The US dollar remained unchanged, as it traded initially for the week, the course showed mainly about trade positioning and the price action was monitored by the market participants which limits market’s actions.

The British economy is predicted to recover if the Brexit process will flow according to the plan. The economic data issued from the United Kingdom last week was choppy and should be regarded as an indication for negotiators about the importance of Brexit talks to go as planned r else it might bring adverse effect for the UK economy. This was avoided almost be everyone since uncertain UK economy is far from the goal of international leaders. With this, the leaders of Euro and the UK will be responsible for this and should outline some good trade agreement for both sides.

On the other hand, the United States are waiting for the incoming data because the figures sent last week was choppy and obscure. The market expects for a three-time rate hike this 2018, however, the new Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take over in February and it remains uncertain about his plans and the way he works. Hence, this could lead to some risks for the dollar and the American economy as well. The Federal Reserve and the upcoming data should coincide in order to drive away this concept, resulting in stability for the dollar which is essential for the world economy.

Generally, there are no fundamentals or economic data from the UK or the US for today but the ranging between the levels of 1.35 and 1.36 should resume in order to engage more participants, particularly the day traders.


Attachment 30193

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 10, 2018

During the trading course on Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar appears to be choppy and mainly negative. The marketplace is characterized as wrist sensitive because the NZ dollar is generally influenced by “risk appetite” and commodity markets. Aside from that, there exist a dollar bias that further leads the market.

The 0.7150 mark looks like offering some kind of support for the NZD/USD currency pair, which appeared to be really strong lately. But the markets are consolidating which means that pullbacks are expected to attempt establishing momentum in order to resume the move to the upside. The longer-term charts imply consolidation between the 0.68 region on the bottom and 0.75 level above, which caused the market to resume further consolidation but the situation is regarded to be larger and longer term.

There is a tendency for the market to continue buying on the dips due to inability to reach the top of the consolidation zone after the rebound from the bottom. The Kiwi dollar would likely be slightly oversold, therefore, it is acceptable for some recovery and normality. Upon the breakdown, a significant support at the 0.71 handle should be expected which is previously a significant resistances and accompanied by a large gap since the past few weeks. Most likely, the American currency will continue to lose it strength.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 16, 2018

There is a hint of bullishness in yesterday’s trading session of the pound since there is no fundamental news to affect the market aside from the bank of the holiday in the U.S. As a result, the pound bulls have become relax in trading. Most likely, this is one of the reasons why the pair has been steady in the past few days but failed to break the level of 1.38 amid the weakness of the dollar.

Other than that, it could possibly be because of a big news expected to come this week, particularly the inflation data and retail sales data. Traders and investors anticipate the data prior to positioning themselves to any direction. The incoming data from the U.K. came out stronger which brought choppiness to trading while others came in weak, which has brought further uncertainty to the Brexit negotiations and affect the U.K. economy.

Yet, the pound was able to take advantage of euro strengthening and the weakening of the dollar. Although, this may not last for a long time. More importantly, the pound is beginning to gain momentum to move higher regardless of its condition. Also, rate hikes from the U.K. are also becoming an issue after its one rate hike last year. The succeeding hikes are deemed to be more important and the central bank has to be certain on its support actions from last year to boost the U.K. economy and confidence of investors.

There is no major news from the U.S. for today but the U.S. is presumed to return to the market following their long weekend holiday. On the other end, the inflation from the U. K. is highly anticipated later this day as it will have a significant insight on the movement of the market and give a hint on which direction does the GBP/USD pair will go.


Attachment 30296

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 17, 2018

There has been a choppy trading for the U.S. dollar during the Tuesday session, the day of returning to work for Americans. Looking at the hourly chart, a slight downward occurred. There are also some major levels and expect the presence of noise in the market.

The U.S. dollar swayed back and forth yesterday. The next trading level would be at 111 which is a bit resistive. If the market breaks higher, it will probably be at 112 which has been significant in the past. It seems that there will be downward pressure and push the market towards 110. Overall, there will be noise in the market that puts the global economic outlook at a better position and at the same time, there is general selling of the U.S. dollar.

Hence, there will be high volatility in the market, which will attract more traders. If the pair breaks lower than the significant level of 110, the market will probably move down towards 108 soon after. Moreover, there are a lot of areas to cover which will highlight every 100 pips. Amid the presence of noise, the market could bounce back which would become an important pullback.


Attachment 30309

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 19, 2018

The U.S. dollar pulled back during the Thursday session and move towards the 111 level, which was offered both as support and resistance in the past that made it not surprised. There is a possibility for the price to rebound and reach the level of 112. Taking into consideration that the market is highly sensitive to risk appetite as a whole. The noise will probably persist in the market but there is nothing new for the Japanese yen in general.

As a rule, traders should buy when the S&P 500 and sell when it breaks down. Generally, the market proceeds to find support. Eventually, the market proceeds to find support close to the level of 110 with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. As a buyer, I realized that this market is good for short-term but not long-term ones. However, there is still choppiness in the market which should be taken seriously with respect. The attitude of the market changes every day and traders should be cautious in this regard with risk in the market. If it breaks down lower than the 110 level, this is likely to move lower towards 107.50 level. Although, this will most likely not happen soon since there is support below.


Attachment 30324

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 22, 2018

The euro is being traded steadily since morning today. It seems that it weakened during Friday and it was able to support the level of 1.22 following the rebound to the support area and soared higher which continues until today. There has been major news from the U.S. and the eurozone which would bring volatility in the market.

Although the volatility present was insufficient to push the pair in either direction and stayed within a tight range between 1.22 and 1.23 over the past few weeks. There is a risk for a government closure as the bill has been passed which was blocked in the Senate through suffrage. It is anticipated that there will be an interim bill which will occur during the U.S. session. Nevertheless, this would have an effect on the dollar amid the various problems the U.S. encounter in the past few years.

This would be problematic for the Trump administration, which is not surprising. There are reports where the debate between Merkel and SPD party would continue looking for a coalition for short-term. This would keep the euro buoyed up during this period of time. There is also a press conference by the end of the week which is anticipated by the market on the decision of ECB.

For today, there are no major news from the U.S or the eurozone, which is already anticipated to happen in the second half of January. Although, there is various economic news to be reconsidered on either side, which would induce the volatility at bay.


Attachment 30362

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: January 24, 2018

The Australian currency slightly declined amid Monday’s trading session and moved lower at the 0.7950 region. The rebound on short-term charts are expected along with the resumption of the consolidation period under the major level. A break over the 0.80 zone will enable the market to move upwards or impose a “buy-and-hold” sentiment. However, creating a gap on top of the 0.81 region would indicate a “buy-and-hold” tone with some kind of aggressiveness.

Usually, the gold market is needed in order for the AUD/USD to strengthen its move as well as to break out to the upside direction. It is expected that this situation will continue. Moreover, the gold markets drifted sideways aimed to hit the market in the near-term, but there is some support below which will trigger buyers to push again to the upside sooner or later. If this happens, the 0.78 area could possibly be the main contention area and short-term selling opportunity will hold up in that level. While a break down below there would hit the overall trend but this has low chance to happen with 10% of probability.

Expect for some massive volatility but there is an attempt at forming an attractive base in order to drive higher. It should be noted that the market will advance higher in the future but it should go along with gold.


Attachment 30378

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 25, 2018

The Kiwi dollar broke out to upside amid the trading session yesterday, reaching the higher level of 0.74 which is close to the top of the general consolidation area in the longer term and extends to the 0.75 region. The 0.68 below is the lowest area of the largest consolidation zone which means higher price level. However, the American currency is obviously struggling and it remains to be seen for any upward movements. While pull backs could possibly offer value.

A break on top of the 0.75 handle would enable the market to edged higher or an attempt to reach the 0.7750 or 0.80 level. The volatility is projected to continue and the short-term pullback will arrive sooner or later. It is advised not to get attracted in selling due to factor against the US dollar sentiment. Market players should also take focus on commodity markets and the overall risk appetite for this helps gauge the next probable movement of the New Zealand currency. This is the expected event in the longer-term correlation and the Kiwi together with the commodities should ramp up, this will have higher chance to happen if the “soft commodities” rallied. In addition to it, shorting could completely change the sentiment of the Forex market.


Attachment 30393

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 29, 2018

The British pound against the U.S. dollar has been declining in the past few days as the dollar strengthens, which seems to be the focus at the present time. Following the comments of Trump, the dollar is steadfast due to the positive economic data in the U.S. This resulted in a reversal of profit for the dollar.

The dollar has been behind since the middle of December and the pound has been one of the strong contenders for this period of time. It gained more than 800 pips against the greenback. There are indications of exhaustion and weakness for the pair. However, it is not just the weakened dollar that buoyed up the pair, the strong pound along with all the soft Brexit plans at the end of the talks.

This supported the pound to rise across markets, especially against the dollar which has been weak recently. However, besides the rhetorics from Trump, there is an increasing expectation for the new Fed chief Powell to take his post, as well as strong incoming data that would strengthen the dollar and induce Fed for rate hikes. The center of attention will be on the dollar in the next few days which is also anticipated to persist for a short period of time.

There is no major report anticipated from the U.S. or from the U.K. today, which is not surprising as it is the first day of the week. However, since the end of the month is approaching, a lot of flows is already expected and trades to be positioned prior the new month which would bring volatility to the pound. This is likely to persist in the next few days since the end of the month is near. Pressure will be eminent in trading but support will be in the area of 1.40.


Attachment 30434

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 31, 2018

Yesterday, it was forecasted that the British pound major pair will find it support in the level of 1.40 and it was anticipated to the line dividing the bulls and the bears. This happened as the price plunged down towards the area of 1.40 and further down for a short period of time before bouncing upward again.

Buying and the rebound of the pair were strong which resulted in an upward trend of the pair towards the area of 1.41. The trade stays beyond this level as of the moment. The volume of purchases indicates the strong presence of buyers. Nonetheless, it is essential for traders to keep in mind the end of the month is near and the prices are likely to be influenced by the month-end flows and any move at this period of time, which should be not be overlooked by traders.

Although, fundamental factors did not strongly affect the pair, as well as economically, in the past few days which is already anticipated at the end of the month is approaching. These activities are moves largely are not part of the overall trend, which indicates that money flows have a bigger impact more than everything else. Hence, it is significant to wait on the sidelines and observe as this kind of trend will persist throughout the day since today is the last day of the month.

Regarding the economic news, ADP National Employment Report from the U.S. is anticipated to be released today but none from the United Kingdom. The ADP data is considered as a prerequisite to the NFP data, which will be published on Friday. Traders should anticipate for a strong data to keep their expectations for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve at a faster rate in the succeeding months. In general, the market is hoping for three rate hike for the year but a positive outcome through high figures on reports are necessary.


Attachment 30463

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: February 5, 2018

During the Friday trading session, the market was a “risk off” move following, which resulted in a rollover in the market. The latest high implies the trend to move upward in the long-term period.

The British pound rolled over against the Japanese yen and reached the new high, but has had difficulty in the latter part of the day. It breaks higher than the level of 155, which has been a significant level that would induce buyers to return. However, there is a tendency for a volatility in the market and traders should be ready for big moves. Later on, the pair is likely to move towards the level of 160 but it will take a few days or week to reach this point. The uptrend has been really strong which is why there will not be a massive correction but more of a pullback in the market.

The next target level would be at 163 but it might take some time to reach this level, although, it might take some time to reach this level. Moreover, pullbacks would also open opportunities for purchases which makes small deals to be the ideal strategy in this situation. Other than that, this market is sene to have a lot of noise, which is referred as the “Dragon” in the forex market. Risk sensitivity is still a big deal for this pair, especially for British pound which is gaining strength. It is better to make sure for the pair to rise in value before placing bets on it, although this pair is likely to compete in the market very well.


Attachment 30514

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 7, 2018

Volatility was predominant during the Tuesday trading session as the U.S. dollar dominates the market, which had an unfavorable effect on both currencies. The market shows the relative strength of the market.

It has been bullish during the Tuesday trading session as the British pound declined against the U.S. dollar. Nonetheless, the euro did not fall, as much as, the British pound. For now, the pair will be based on their relative strength but since the euro did not drop as low as the British pound, traders are anticipated to trade and push the pair higher. The market is close to the level of 0.89 which is a fair value in the consolidation area. The upward momentum implies the uptrend of the pair towards 0.90 level.

A massive resistance was seen at the area of 0.90 which has been the upper boundary in the past and it will be not easy to break this level. Although, there is a bit of noise found lower than the level of 0.8875 which proceeds to offer support in the market. I would suggest buying on the lows but it will be part by part instead of a big move. The pair will break out of the consolidation area and proceeds to move up towards the level of 0.95. Alternately, it is also possible to a have a new low which would send the market to reach the level of 0.86 based on the long-term charts.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 12, 2018

The American dollar rallied versus other currencies around the globe, and the Loonie seems different. The USD/CAD rally due to declining prices of the oil. The Canadian dollar is commonly used by currency traders as a substitute for the oil markets which means that when the WTI Crude Oil drop, the Loonie will typically follow.

The US dollar attempts to create some stand to resume the bullish pressure, this could be done if the oil markets continue to remain weak. An unidentified employment figure will be released on Friday from Canada but failed to help things. Looking forward, the interest rates in the United States are rising which indicates a good sign for the currency. With this, the buying pressure is projected to continue, however, there is a tendency that the opposite thing may happen. We could consider this upon breaking down under the hammer formation last week. Basically, it is a breakdown beneath the 1.22 handle. In the past, there are a lot of short-term volatility in the USD/CAD which normally occur upon the intertwining of the two economies.

It should be noted that the United States and Canada are each other’s biggest trading partners which often grind each other. It can be assumed that this point can be defined as a “crucial inflection”, so it is advised to maintain a small position and add when the market establishes itself well.


Attachment 30591

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 19, 2018

The single European currency and the British pound shared the same fate on Friday, as it showed high volatility during the first half of the day due to the weakening of the US dollar. While in the afternoon, the strength of the American currency prevailed which helped regain the profits of the sterling of the past few days. It further helped the GBP/USD pair to end the weak in a sluggish approach which indicates correction in the following days.

The pound was secured because of the dollar instability and pushed the Cable pair to reach the 1.38 zone until the psychologically important level of 1.40. Briefly, the pair moved away from any danger for good and the pound bulls attempt to stabilize the momentum in continuing the upward movement in the near term.

As the decline of the dollar does not have enough economic data or fundamentals to support it, the rebound in the US currency did the same. This resulted in the downturn of the pound, pushing through the 1.41 mark and traded underneath the 1.40 area for a short period of time. Subsequently, the pair successfully closed the week above the 1.40 level. As of this writing, the Cable pair continued trading on top of that region and the price level is expected to remain on that point, relative to the bulls and bears. In case the pair remained steady above 1.40, the bulls will take control which would likely to be seen in the coming weeks.

Ultimately, there is no major news from the United Kingdom while there is a bank holiday in the United States today. It is safe to say that consolidation and ranging are possible while market players anticipate for bigger investors to show up its intentions and start to move in a certain trend in order to tag along. It is believed that the USD will gain strength in the medium term.



Attachment 30651

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 21, 2018

The single European currency paired with British pound had broken down during the course of Tuesday’s session. The EUR/GBP pair moved lower near the 0.88 mark which is a previous support and resistance. Hence, it should be expected that the market will have plenty of noise around that level.

Generally, the market will be noisy due to potential headline risk brought by the euro/pound pair in line with the negotiations of the European Union and the United Kingdom. Therefore, this problem might continue until the next couple of months that make trading tough over a long period of time.

Breaking down under the 0.88 region will allow the market to touch the 0.8740 zone. Otherwise, a rally from that point will push the market above the 0.8860 level or even to 0.90 eventually. This type of market requires players to take profits hurriedly for it’s nearly impossible to hover a trade in the longer-term, except when one is able to deal with wild swings for both profit and loss. Nevertheless, the general upward trend will resume since participants favor the EU stability against the uncertain future of the UK. It is possible to move on top of the 0.93 area.


Attachment 30675

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 26, 2018

The euro against the British pound broke lower than the Friday trading session and reach lower than the level of 0.88. There is a massive support around the area with a lot of noise in the long-term.

The presence of noise will most likely persist with the headlines as the result of negotiations between Brussels and London which is likely to influence the pair. At the same time, traders should anticipate for volatility. Looking at the weekly chart, the pair ranges 300-pips and it will remain for some time until there is a definite proposition for the negotiation. The market should anticipate for this to continue in a while.

Traders could utilize in accordance to the stochastic oscillator as they will be trading back and forth in short-term. There is also a probability for negativity with the level of 0.87 in the floor below. The closer this level can be reached, it is wise to buy in this market and will be the focus on this move. Traders could sell at some point and volatility is likely to persist unless it turns around higher than the level of 0.8840. Hereinafter, buying is possible and continues to be volatile. However, if you are not strong enough and focus on the consolidation of the area and a lot of opportunities to gain profit in a well-defined rectangle.


Attachment 30720

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 27, 2018

The euro against the U.S. dollar has been trading closely on either side at the level of 1.23 as the market presumes the pair to move further.

The EUR/USD pair is moving within a tight range in the past 24 hours which is already anticipated in Monday trading session. Low volatility is not surprising in the current market condition. Traders are likely to position themselves for this week on Mondays which causes low volatility.

Similarly, trading remained the same despite the speech of ECB President Draghi yesterday. The speech met the expectations with him saying positively on the growth of the economy in the eurozone. He is recognized to be dovish but the fact remains of the steady growth of the economy as reflected in the incoming data and remains positive in the past few months. This has preserved the euro to keep afloat in the past 24 hours although the movements have been very minimal.

The market is also anticipated to gain volatility and liquidity as the end of the month is approaching. At the same time, price fluctuations to be inundated by trade positioning and monthly end flow. Options are also about to expire in the upcoming days, which will keep the market busy on particular price range.

The market will probably focus on the dollar with the new Fed chief, Jerome Powell, to testify and engage the market waiting for signals on monetary policies and future rate hikes in the next few months. As for the economic data, both the durable goods data and the trade balance data from the U.S. will be published and if it did not meet expectations, the dollar is likely to roll downward.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 6, 2018

The EUR/USD pair constantly trading in a strong manner as it moves away from the election results in Italy. The focus remains to be on the dollar weakening felt across the markets. It is somewhat surprising for those who expected that the Italian election will bring an impact towards the euro area but the results of further led concerns of the EU leaders.

Italy is the third biggest economy in the European region and the election results indicate the increasing anti-establishment votes. This event is common from all over the countries especially from the United States to Asia. Hence, this should be one of the main concerns of the Euro officials since this kind of trend may grow continually which could hurt the euro and its existence in the following years. However, this does not necessarily mean that the euro is free from any burden while traders appear to be happy about the maintained current situation. This the reason behind the move of the euro/dollar pair through the 1.2350 level as of this writing

Ultimately, there are no important economic news or data from the EU or the US for this day but this reflects some ranging and consolidation in the near-term. Also, the markets anticipate further set of data in the second half of the week from the United States, indicating a short-term trend for the greenbacks.