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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 14, 2024

The euro's neutral situation gained upward momentum yesterday. On the weekly chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line emerged from the wedge upwards

If the price manages to consolidate above the level of 1.1010 on the daily chart, it could potentially open up a medium-term growth prospect. The first target would be 1.1043, followed by 1.1085—the peak from December 28 of last year.

n the daily chart, the divergence has transformed into a regular upward movement of the Marlin oscillator, which is still far from overbought conditions. Forming a double top is only possible if the price falls from 1.1010.

In the 4-hour chart, the euro continues to rise. The price broke away from the balance line upwards, and the Marlin oscillator entered positive territory. We await key developments at the critical level of 1.1010.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 2, 2024

Following the release of U.S. data on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and personal income/spending from Friday, the dollar index increased by 0.35%. The euro declined by 30 points, settling below the 1.1085 level. The decline paused at the peak level from August 14. Additionally, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has reached the boundary of the declining trend territory and suggests a potential correction. However, the main reason for the strengthening of the bulls is that stock market indices are aiming to set new historical records. If the stock market continues to rise, the euro is unlikely to reach the target supp

Today is a holiday in the U.S. and Canada, and with the ECB expected to lower rates in 10 days, the euro may not challenge the 1.0950 level too soon. Today and tomorrow, the euro will likely test the resistance at 1.1085. A subsequent attempt to reach 1.1010 is possible, as the price is currently trading within the range of 1.1010 to 1.1085. Declining commodity prices in the local situation will help the dollar.

On the H4 chart, the price and oscillator have formed a small but significant convergence indicating a potential correction. We expect the price to reach the indicated level of 1.1085.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on September 3, 2024

Due to the holiday in the United States, the market situation remained unchanged. Strangely enough, this stagnation might continue today; this time, it will be due to an empty economic calendar. The final data on the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is unlikely to have any significant impact. Even if it differs somewhat from the preliminary estimates, its influence will likely be more symbolic, as the market has already largely priced in this factor. The only thing that might affect the situation is possible statements from representatives of the European Central Bank. After all, inflation in the Eurozone is slowing down noticeably faster than in the United States. Therefore, the ECB might hint at a slightly more aggressive easing of monetary policy, which, in turn, could strengthen the U.S. dollar's position. However, such a development is unlikely since central banks do not make decisions based on data alone. They are more interested in the trend over time, and the recent decline in inflation in Europe may be temporary.

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the upper deviation of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050, indicating a sustained corrective cycle from the local high of the medium-term trend. In the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator has left the oversold zone but remains in the sellers' area between 30 and 50. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines (MA) point downward, which corresponds to the corrective phase. Expectations and Prospects Stabilizing the price below the 1.1050 mark is sufficient for the next stage of the decline. However, this will only result in a local shift of the support point toward the lower area of the psychological level. The complex indicator analysis points to a corrective price move in the short-term and intraday periods. Indicators point to an upward trend in the medium term.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 4, 2024

Yesterday, September 3rd, was quite eventful: The S&P 500 was down 2.12%, oil was down 4.78%, the dollar index was up 0.07%, and the yield on 5-year U.S. government bonds down 2.09% to 3.63%. Given this turn of events, the likelihood of the euro reversing from the support of the embedded green price channel line is very low. We expect the support at 1.1010 to be breached and the target level of 1.0950 to be reached. The Marlin oscillator on the daily time frame has entered the downtrend territory.

In the 4-hour chart, Marlin is rising against the trend of the daily oscillator and has even formed a slight convergence with the price. There are two possible scenarios here: a market reversal pattern or a standard limited rise—a brief release of oscillator tension before further decline. The reversal could occur either at the zero line or slightly above it, forming a false breakout into the positive territory.

However, what interests us most now is the market reversal pattern. According to the CFTC data, the largest euro position of the current year was accumulated last week. A fresh report will be released on Friday. If the big players plan to knock out the rest of the market participants, the timing is perfect. One of the key upcoming releases is the U.S. labor report for August, due the day after tomorrow. The forecast suggests an increase in new jobs by 160-164,000 compared to 114,000 in July and a decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.2%. Undoubtedly, such data will lower the still-aggressive market expectations regarding the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, and this could result in the closure of euro purchases.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 5, 2024

Despite yesterday's increase in volatility and the expansion of the sideways range, the euro maintained the boundaries of safe wandering, closing the day at the upper boundary of this range—at the resistance level of 1.1085. The Marlin oscillator continued to develop within a narrow range along the zero neutral line.

Today, the euro will likely decline as we await tomorrow's US employment data. The data is expected to be strong, and the primary scenario for the euro remains bearish. An attack on the support level of 1.1010 is likely. In the 4-hour chart, the price convergence with the Marlin oscillator has been processed.

The price was raised by 67 pips from the day's low. At the resistance level of 1.1065, the price also met the balance indicator line. A downward price reversal from this line tells us that yesterday's rise was a standard correction. A breakdown of the downward movement is possible if the price consolidates above the level of 1.1140, which is marked as a key MACD line.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on September 6, 2024

The EUR/USD pair is in a recovery phase from a recent corrective cycle. The upper deviation of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050 serves as a support, where an increase in the volume of long positions was observed. In the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' area of 50/70, indicating an increase in the volume of long positions for the euro. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines have changed direction from downward to upward, corresponding to the end of the corrective phase. Expectations and Prospects In case of further growth, we expect the euro to recover fully, with a target at the resistance level of 1.1200. This move may indicate an extension of the medium-term upward trend. However, due to the release of the United States Department of Labor report, technical analysis takes a back seat, as speculators will primarily focus on data when making trading decisions. The complex indicator analysis points to the process of the euro's recovery in the short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 9, 2024

The currency market's reaction to Friday's US employment data was surprisingly muted – the dollar index changed by 0.07%, gold dropped by 0.73%, and oil by 2.14%. The stock market reacted strongly, with a decline of 1.73%. In the non-farm sector, 142,000 new jobs were created in August against a forecast of 162,000, with July's figures revised downward by 25,000. Unemployment decreased from 4.3% to 4.2%. The broader U6 unemployment rate increased from 7.8% to 7.9%. However, hourly earnings increased by 0.4% for the month. Overall, our expectations for good data were met. But we don't see the authorities' desire to manipulate the market here; the data came out at the forecast level and maintained a slight intrigue regarding the September rate cut. We believe the rate will be lowered by 0.25%, but some players are still pricing in a 30% probability of a 0.50% rate cut in September and a 41% probability of a 0.50% cut at the December meeting. Hence, the main movement of the dollar strengthening will start from September 18.

On Thursday, September 12, the European Central Bank will lower the rate by 0.25%. Market participants fully anticipate such a decrease, but it has not yet been priced in. We believe that market participants will wait until the Federal Reserve's decision and then start actively buying dollars. Currently, on the daily chart, the euro is in a balanced state—at the support level of 1.1085—and this equilibrium is confirmed by the Marlin oscillator, which is on the zero line. According to the main scenario, the euro needs to consolidate below the support level, and then an attempt can be made to target 1.1010. Generally, we expect the euro to be in the range of 1.0888-1.0905.

In the 4-hour chart, the price is above the balance line, with Marlin in the positive area. Price growth is possible, but it is limited by the MACD line around 1.1113. In general, the sideways movement of the euro is likely today and tomorrow.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 10, 2024

At the end of yesterday, the euro fell by 51 pips. This is probably a continuation of the reaction to Friday's US employment data. The euro can no longer hold back the obvious (reasons) — the imminent European Central Bank rate cut and the restrained pace of the Federal Reserve's rate cut on a locally overbought euro. Germany's CPI for August will be released today, expected to fall from 2.3% y/y to 1.9% y/y. In the UK, July's unemployment rate is expected to fall from 4.2% to 4.1%. The euro may continue its downward slide.

The euro is still within the consolidation range of 1.1030/85 theoretically, but on the daily time frame, the price is already pushing through the nearest embedded line of the descending green price channel. The movement's target is the level of 1.1010. From there, an assault on 1.0950 will begin, reinforced by the MACD line. If the price is not contained, we expect strong movement directly from the moment the ECB cuts rates on September 12th.

In the 4-hour chart, the price consolidated below both indicator lines, with Marlin declining in the negative area. The prevailing short-term trend is downward.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 11, 2024

If the debate between Donald Trump and Joseph Biden was a real disaster, yesterday's debate with Kamala Harris was much smoother and didn't cause any panic. So, the markets were able to ignore them. Investors can now calmly focus solely on U.S. inflation, especially since the rate of consumer price growth is expected to slow from 2.9% to 2.6%. This would likely convince the markets of a 50-basis-point cut in the Federal Reserve's interest rate. Thus, there is a high likelihood of a significant weakening of the U.S. dollar.

After testing the previous week's local low, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its corrective cycle. However, this movement didn't lead to any radical changes; the price merely returned to the upper deviation area of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050. In the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the lower 30/50 range, indicating bearish sentiment among market participants. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point downwards, which coincides with the direction of the price movement. Expectations and Prospects Stabilizing the price below the 1.1000 mark is necessary for the next phase of the decline. However, this would only shift the local support level to the lower region of the psychological range. Until that happens, traders are considering a price rebound as the main scenario on the market. The complex indicator analysis suggests a price rebound in the short term, while indicators point to a downward cycle in the intraday period.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 12, 2024

The slowdown in inflation in the United States turned out to be more significant than even the most optimistic forecasts, yet the situation in the currency market remained unchanged. Almost immediately after it was revealed that the consumer price growth rate had slowed from 2.9% to 2.5%, major media outlets began focusing on core inflation, particularly in its monthly measure rather than the annual one. Core inflation increased by 0.3%. Although the U.S. central bank never mentions this indicator and is thus largely insignificant, the media started claiming that the Federal Reserve will slowly lower interest rates because of core inflation. As a result, the media frenzy somewhat balanced out the actual data, leaving the market in its previous position. Today, all eyes are on the European Central Bank's board meeting. The market has long been prepared for the refinancing rate to be lowered from 4.25% to 4.00%, so this fact will not affect investor sentiment. Everything will depend on the statements ECB President Christine Lagarde may make during the subsequent press conference, particularly regarding the central bank's future actions. The market is concerned only with the pace of monetary policy easing at least until the end of this year. If the head of the ECB announces even one more rate cut, it will substantially boost the U.S. dollar, allowing it to continue strengthening its position.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 13, 2024

Perhaps never before have we seen a scenario where, following a 60 basis point cut in the refinancing rate, the currency issued by the central bank making such a significant move actually rises. But that's precisely what happened yesterday. After the European Central Bank lowered the interest rate from 4.25% to 3.65%, the single currency didn't even consider a decline. On the contrary, it grew quite confidently. And this was the largest single cut in the refinancing rate in the entire history of the ECB. While it's now listed in virtually every economic calendar that this outcome was predicted, that's not entirely accurate. Right before the meeting, forecasts were pointing to a rate of 4.00%. That was changed almost after the fact. So, this large cut was an outright surprise. This raises the question of why the euro continued to rise afterward. The answer lies in the comments made by ECB President Christine Lagarde. During her press conference, she explicitly stated that the ECB is putting the monetary policy easing process on hold. In other words, no more rate cuts for now. The market, however, had expected this process to be drawn out over a more extended period. Now, the Federal Reserve will be lowering interest rates, not the ECB. This shift in expectations likely spurred the euro's rise. However, interest rates in the United States are still significantly higher than those in Europe, which is unlikely to change. The only question is the size of the interest rate disparity. This fact will continue to put pressure on the euro. Once the market recovers from the initial shock, the dollar will likely resume steadily strengthening its position.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 16, 2024

The market is starting to prepare for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting this Wednesday, which is causing the euro to continue strengthening its position. The anticipation centers around the market's expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. There are still strong expectations of a 50-basis-point cut. As a result, it may turn out that after the first rate cut in several years, the dollar could rise if the Fed lowers the key rate by only 25 bps. Until then, the dollar will likely remain under pressure and gradually lose value.

The EUR/USD pair is currently in a recovery phase following a recent corrective move. The psychological level of 1.1000 serves as support. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator moves within the buyers' area of 50/70, indicating an upward sentiment among market participants. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the price movement. Expectations and Prospects If the next stage of the euro's recovery continues amid the market's dollar sell-off, stabilizing the price above the 1.1100 mark could increase the volume of long positions. Under this scenario, the pair may move at least toward the recent local high of September. As an alternative scenario, there could be a slowdown in the recovery cycle, with the price returning to the upper area of the psychological level. The complex indicator analysis indicates an ongoing upward cycle in the short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 17, 2024

Leading media outlets are increasingly promoting the idea of a 50-basis point cut in the U.S. rate, contributing to further weakening of the U.S. dollar. Considering that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting is tomorrow, this trend is likely to persist until the close of today's trading. However, the scale of the dollar's weakening is expected to be somewhat more modest than yesterday. The dollar will find some support from macroeconomic data. Despite the possible slowdown in retail sales growth, from 2.7% to 2.2%, the decline in industrial production of -0.3% is likely to turn into growth of 0.2%. So, two key sectors of the economy might show growth, which should provide at least some support for the dollar.

Since the start of the new trading week, the euro's recovery has accelerated, allowing it to surpass the 1.1100 level. This price movement indicates more than a 60% recovery relative to the recent corrective cycle. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' area of 50/70, indicating a bullish market sentiment. It is worth noting that the overbought zone has already been reached. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the price movement. Expectations and Prospects The price's stabilization above 1.1100 may indicate further growth in the volume of long positions in the euro, which, from a technical analysis perspective, suggests the possibility of the price rising toward the resistance level of 1.1200. The alternative scenario considers a slowdown in the upward cycle in the form of a pullback due to the euro's local overbought condition in the short term. The complex indicator analysis indicates a sustained upward cycle in the short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 18, 2024

If the leading U.S. media were assuring the inevitability of a 50 basis points interest rate cut on Monday, yesterday, it seemed everyone had forgotten about those reports. The same outlets casually began talking about a 25 bps cut instead. This, of course, had its effect and even allowed the dollar to start strengthening from the opening of the U.S. trading session. But in reality, it no longer matters much how big today's interest rate cut will be. The dollar has been losing ground since spring when talks about the upcoming monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve began to intensify. The market has already priced in one or two cuts—those very 50 bps. Of course, the fact that this is the first rate cut in several years will impress the markets, and the dollar will weaken for some time. But the scale of its decline will still be minor. What's far more important is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell will say. But, based on his previous speeches, he will most likely stick to ritualistic phrases, essentially saying that future interest rate decisions will consider macroeconomic dynamics. In other words, the head of the Fed is unlikely to say anything concrete. Therefore, the market will eventually return its focus to the interest rate disparity, which has recently shifted significantly in favor of the dollar. It's quite possible that once the initial emotions subside, the dollar will start to strengthen. This process could take several months.

During its upward momentum, the EUR/USD pair nearly reached the local high of September 6, at which point the volume of long positions decreased. As a result, a pullback-stagnation occurred, fitting within the component of the upward cycle. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator exited the overbought zone during the pullback but remained in the bullish area of 50/70. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the price movement. Expectations and Prospects Price stabilization above the 1.1150 level is necessary for the next growth phase. Under this scenario, a complete recovery from the recent correction and an update to the medium-term trend's high is possible. It's important to note that today, technical analysis takes a backseat, as speculators' primary focus is on the outcome of the Fed meeting. The complex indicator analysis suggests a pullback in the short term, while indicators are geared towards an upward cycle in the intraday and medium-term periods.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 19, 2024


For the first time in four years, the Federal Reserve lowered its interest rates by a substantial 50 basis points. This move was driven not only by the steady slowdown in inflation but also by the U.S. central bank's concerns about the potential slide of the economy into a recession. However, what is truly surprising is the market's reaction— the dollar immediately started to rise significantly. The reason lies in the statements made by Jerome Powell. The head of the U.S. central bank promptly warned the markets not to expect the same pace of monetary policy easing to continue. According to him, the Federal Open Market Committee is considering cutting interest rates by another 50 bps by the end of this year, but this will happen gradually. With only two meetings left this year, this means 25 basis points at each meeting. However, everything will depend on macroeconomic dynamics. Given that the pace of inflation will surely slow down, there is a possibility that the central bank might only lower its interest rates once before the start of next year. This is precisely why the dollar began to strengthen, as the markets were expecting a more aggressive monetary policy easing. Today, the focus shifts to the Bank of England, which will likely set the tone for further actions by key central banks. The British central bank is expected to keep its interest rates unchanged. In the context of the Fed starting to lower its rates, such a step by the BoE would provide momentum for the pound to rise. This, in turn, would also pull up the euro via the dollar index.


The EUR/USD pair, driven by a strong flow of news and information, shows increased volatility. During this period, the price almost reached the 1.1200 mark. The upward sentiment remains undeniable despite the previous trading day's closing near the opening level. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' zone of 50/70, indicating a bullish sentiment. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the current price movement. Expectations and Prospects For the next stage of growth, price stabilization above 1.1150 is necessary. Under this scenario, it is possible to see an update of the mid-term trend high, located around the 1.1200/1.1280 range. Comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods supports a sustained upward trend.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 20, 2024

After the Bank of England kept its interest rates unchanged, investors finally realized that the situation in the market was changing somewhat. The number of votes in favor of lowering the key rate decreased, which means the British central bank put on pause further easing monetary policy. Not long before, the European Central Bank implemented a significant rate cut, indicating that any further reductions would occur in the more distant future. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is just starting its monetary policy easing journey. In other words, only the United States will be lowering interest rates in the near future, while in Europe, they will remain unchanged. This is precisely why the dollar is losing ground, and it seems this process will continue for several months.

The EUR/USD pair has almost fully recovered its value after the recent corrective cycle. Currently, the price is fluctuating around the local high of the upward trend. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' zone of 50/70, indicating a bullish sentiment. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the price movement direction. Expectations and Prospects The price's stabilization above 1.1150 reflects a bullish sentiment among market participants. However, buyers still face resistance in the 1.1200/1.1280 area, which represents the peak of the medium-term trend. This area must be overcome to strengthen the current trend; otherwise, it could act as resistance. The complex indicator analysis indicates an upward cycle in the short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 23, 2024

On Friday, the euro tried for the third time to test the resistance of the target level of 1.1186 and the upper boundary of the price channel. If this continues, the resistance will eventually fall. Consolidating above this level will open the target of 1.1276. However, this will not yet signal the start of a medium-term rise, as the potential divergence with the Marlin oscillator may still take effect.

Several counter-dollar currencies have already formed such divergence. The euro can reverse without divergence, similar to what happened in November 2022 but in an upward scenario. For this to occur, the Marlin oscillator must consolidate in the downtrend territory, and the price must subsequently consolidate below the MACD line.

On the four-hour chart, Marlin is close to crossing into negative territory. If the price breaks through the support level of 1.1076, it will also mean breaking through the MACD line in this time frame. The situation remains bullish on both timeframes, so we will wait to see how events unfold. The Eurozone September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be released today. A slight weakening is expected, with the composite PMI from S&P Global forecasted to drop from 51.0 to 50.6. This upward trend may change.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 24, 2024

The business activity indices in Europe were expected to remain broadly unchanged, while the United States would show a significant decline. However, the outcome was somewhat different. Initially, the composite business activity index in the Eurozone dropped from 51.0 to 48.9. This decline was due to a decrease in the services activity index, from 45.8 to 44.8, and the manufacturing index, from 52.9 to 50.5, despite forecasts predicting an increase to 53.0. These figures immediately strengthened the dollar, which only slowed down after the opening of the US trading session. The composite index of business activity in the United States was expected to decline from 54.6 points to 53.0 points, but it only decreased to 54.4. This was despite the manufacturing index dropping from 47.9 to 47.0, with a forecast of 48.0. The key factor was the services activity index, which, instead of decreasing from 55.7 to 54.0, rose to 55.4. Overall, business activity is declining on both sides of the Atlantic. While this was a complete surprise in Europe, the situation in the United States is somewhat better than expected. The economic calendar is generally empty until the end of the current week. Thus, the only thing the market can rely on is media reports. The market will likely consolidate around the already achieved values if no sensational news arises.

Despite a slight pullback in the euro's exchange rate against the dollar, the quotation remains near the local high of the upward trend. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator has fallen below the 50 midpoint, indicating a retracement. However, this does not mean the sellers have broken the upward cycle. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines have locally changed direction due to the pullback. Expectations and Prospects For the next phase of growth, it is necessary to stabilize the quotation above the 1.1200 mark. In this scenario, there is a high probability of surpassing the high set in July 2023, which is 1.1276. Otherwise, we can expect a range-bound movement around the current values. The complex indicator analysis indicates a retracement in the short-term and intraday periods. The indicators are oriented towards an upward trend in the medium term.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of GBP/USD on September 25; The Pound Doesn't Care Where or When to Rise

Guess what? The GBP/USD pair continued to move upward on Tuesday. The movement was relatively weak this time, but we also warned about this yesterday. Yes, the market didn't have reasons to sell the dollar and buy the pound this time, but it didn't have them on Monday either. Nevertheless, the British currency also grew on the first trading day of the week. Let's recall that on Monday, the UK published the Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) for the services and manufacturing sectors, which turned out to be weaker than expected. Therefore, the pound had every reason to fall by at least 30-40 pips. And it did fall, but what's the point if it eventually rose by 80 pips without any reason? On Tuesday, there was no news from the UK or the US, yet the British currency continued its sluggish growth. Thus, we can draw an unambiguous conclusion – time passes, but the situation in the forex market doesn't change. We've been talking about the illogical upward movement since the beginning of the year because even back then, it was evident that the pound was rising much more frequently than there was positive news from the UK or negative news from the US. It's the end of September, and the pound still rises whenever and wherever it wants. You can endlessly debate that the market is "experiencing a rise in risk sentiment" or that "the market expects a divergence in Federal Reserve and Bank of England rates," but all of this is just an attempt to present wishful thinking as reality. The US dollar has been falling for two consecutive years. If the market is currently pricing in the future divergence between the Fed/BoE rates, why was the pound rising a year ago or even a year and a half ago?

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 26, 2024

If on Tuesday the dollar weakened without any serious reasons, aside from the contrived hype stirred up by the leading American media, then yesterday it strengthened, once again defying common sense. There were no significant macroeconomic data releases, but a 4.7% drop in new home sales certainly can't support strengthening the US currency. Most likely, the market was correcting the imbalances that had arisen the day before, returning to the levels it was on Tuesday morning. In other words, the situation in the market remains unchanged, albeit accompanied by considerable volatility. Today's published data on US GDP is unlikely to have much impact, as it concerns final figures expected to merely confirm the preliminary estimates already factored in by the market. Attention can be paid to the durable goods orders, which might decrease by 0.1%. Given that the market cannot remain motionless, a decline in orders will likely lead to a symbolic weakening of the dollar.

The EUR/USD pair temporarily surpassed the 1.1200 level during market speculation, but market participants could not stabilize the quote above it. As a result, a price pullback occurred, with the pair still trading near the peak of the upward cycle. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator moves around the median level of 50, indicating a price pullback. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average (MA) lines are intertwined, corresponding to a pullback phase. Expectations and Prospects For the next phase of growth, it's necessary to stabilize the quote above the 1.1200 mark throughout the day. In this scenario, the high set in July 2023, which stands at 1.1276, is highly probable to be updated. Otherwise, we can expect fluctuating movement around the current levels. The complex indicator analysis in short-term and intraday periods indicates a pullback.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 27, 2024

After the US dollar's unclear rise on Wednesday, it started losing ground yesterday without any particular reason. Especially since the macroeconomic data in the United States generally matched expectations. The final GDP data confirmed the preliminary estimates, which the market had already factored in. The changes in jobless claims were symbolic and couldn't influence the situation. So, this is simply a matter of a bounce and an attempt to correct the imbalances. Today, even such data won't be published, so logically, the market should consolidate around the achieved levels. However, we shouldn't rule out the high volatility accompanying this process. Nevertheless, in the end, the quotes should settle near the levels at which yesterday's trading ended.

Despite local speculations, the EUR/USD pair is moving within the limits of the peak of the upward cycle, with the 1.1200 level area acting as resistance. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator moves in the buyers' area of 50/70, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment among market participants. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average (MA) lines are directed upward, corresponding to the main trend direction. Expectations and Prospects For the next phase of growth, the quote needs to stabilize above the 1.1200 mark throughout the day. In this scenario, the high set in July 2023, which is the 1.1276 level, is highly probable to be updated. Otherwise, we may experience some choppy fluctuations around the current values.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 30, 2024

Despite the impressive volatility, the foreign exchange market situation has remained unchanged. Considering the empty macroeconomic calendar, such a scenario seemed the most likely. Most importantly, the beginning of the new trading week is also marked by a lack of statistical data. So, today's scenario might repeat Friday's. However, the week will be eventful, at least due to the release of the US Department of Labor report, but it will only be released on Friday. With each passing day, the calendar will gradually be filled with increasingly significant macroeconomic data. For example, preliminary inflation data for the Eurozone will be published as early as tomorrow.

The EUR/USD currency pair has formed another stagnation around the local high of the upward trend. The 1.1200 level serves as resistance for buyers. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical tool is moving along the 50 median level, which confirms the price stagnation. As for the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines are directed upward, corresponding to the main trend direction. Expectations and Prospects For the next phase of growth, the quote must stabilize above 1.1200 throughout the day. In this scenario, the high set in July 2023, which is 1.1276, is highly probable to be updated. Otherwise, we can expect variable fluctuations around the current values. The complex indicator analysis in short-term and intraday periods indicates a pullback.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on October 1, 2024

Although Jerome Powell repeated his words during the press conference following the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the dollar was actively rising. The head of the Federal Reserve didn't say anything new. However, the strengthening of the dollar began several hours before his speech and essentially ended before it even started. The reason is that other officials from the US central bank also spoke. And their rhetoric has changed somewhat. In particular, Raphael Bostic, who had previously clearly supported another 50 basis points cut in interest rates, suddenly made a reservation that this step would only be justified in case of a sharp deterioration in the labor market situation. This significantly increased the importance of the United States Department of Labor report, which will be published this Friday. However, given that no one expects a sudden spike in unemployment, such statements simultaneously reduced the likelihood of such a substantial interest rate cut. Thus, the strengthening of the US dollar became a logical development. At the same time, there is a high probability that today, the dollar will continue to strengthen its position. This time, the reason will be the preliminary inflation data in the Eurozone, which indicates that consumer price growth may slow down from 2.2% to 1.8%. However, the dollar's growth will be limited because interest rates were already lowered by 60 basis points during the recent European Central Bank meeting. In other words, the ECB has already accounted for the further decline in inflation. Nevertheless, inflation falling below 2.0% still creates preconditions for further monetary policy easing, though not immediately but in the near future.

The EUR/USD currency pair has been moving at the peak of the upward cycle for the fifth consecutive day. The resistance level is 1.1200, below which a price stagnation has formed. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical tool has crossed the median 50 line in a downward trajectory, indicating an increase in the volume of short positions on the euro. As for the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average (MA) lines have changed direction, suggesting price stagnation. Expectations and Prospects It can be assumed that the stagnation serves as a stage of regrouping trading forces, with the bullish sentiment preserved among market participants. In this case, stabilizing the price above the 1.1200 mark during the day could lead to an update of the mid-term trend's high, which is at 1.1276. Otherwise, we expect further fluctuations around the current values. The complex indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods points to a pullback.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on October 2, 2024

The preliminary estimate of euro area inflation showed a slowdown in the growth of consumer prices from 2.2% to 1.8%. Although the data fully matched forecasts, this report marked the beginning of the dollar's strengthening. However, it was primarily driven by U.S. macroeconomic data, particularly the JOLTS report, which showed not only 8.0 million job openings (against a forecast of 7.7 million) but also 3.1 million layoffs, compared to an expected 3.3 million. In other words, the situation in the U.S. labor market is somewhat better than expected. Consequently, the Federal Reserve has no grounds for another 50 basis point rate cut. However, today's ADP report could introduce some adjustments and potentially weaken the dollar. According to forecasts, employment is expected to grow by only 90,000, which is more than twice as low as what is needed to maintain labor market stability at least. Employment data holds much more weight than job openings and layoffs. The dollar may retreat to the levels it held before the release of the preliminary inflation data from the Eurozone.

The stall at the peak of the upward trend ended with an active sell-off of euro positions, leading to the formation of a full-scale correction toward the upper zone of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical tool is moving in the lower 30/50 area of the indicator, indicating increased interest in short positions on the market. As for the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines (MA) are pointed downward, corresponding to the ongoing corrective cycle. Expectations and Prospects The speculative momentum favoring dollar positions still prevails in the financial markets. For this reason, a test of the 1.1000 level cannot be ruled out. Further development will depend on how the price behaves around this value. A partial recovery may occur if the volume of short positions on the euro decreases. However, if we see price stabilization below the 1.1000 level, a move toward the lower deviation of 1.0950 is possible.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 3, 2024

Yesterday, the single European currency declined by 22 pips, while the stock market (S&P 500) rose by 0.01%. Overall, stock indices closed mixed, but the VIX index fell by 1.87%, and it still needs to increase by 25.7% to reach its September peak of 23.76. There's no sign of a flight from risk. Even oil prices fell yesterday, and investors were not keen on holding U.S. government bonds in their portfolios.

On the weekly EUR/USD chart, the price has reached strong support — the point where the Kijun-sen line intersects with the 138.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The channels on the Marlin oscillator also create a strong potential reversal point at the intersection of the lower boundaries of both the descending and ascending channels. The divergence formed during the downward movement may reverse. We also see that the price has not yet tested the 200.0% and 238.2% Fibonacci reaction levels at 1.1230 and 1.1350. There are good prospects for the price to correct this oversight. If the price can overcome the 138.2% retracement level (1.1033 – yesterday's low) and consolidate, the downward trend will continue to strengthen.

On the daily chart, the price is close to consolidating below the Kijun-sen line, which requires today's close to be below this line. Marlin is slightly turning upward in the downtrend territory. Considering the situation on the weekly chart, the main events will likely unfold next week.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on October 4, 2024


The dollar is on hold in anticipation of the release of the U.S. Department of Labor report. Moreover, there is increasing speculation that the report's content may be slightly better than forecasts. In particular, based on recent labor market data, there are doubts that the unemployment rate will rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. It is more likely to remain at its current level. Furthermore, it appears that 140,000 new jobs will be created outside of agriculture, rather than the previously predicted 130,000. While this number isn't huge, given the population size and growth rate in the U.S., it is still slightly more than initially expected. This could lead to further strengthening of the U.S. dollar. However, everything will depend on the content of the U.S. Department of Labor report.


The EUR/USD currency pair is in a corrective phase from the resistance level 1.1200. As a result, the price has reached the support level of 1.1000. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical tool is moving in the sellers' zone of 30/50, indicating the appeal of short positions on the euro. However, oversold conditions are already being observed in shorter-term periods. As for the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average (MA) lines are directed downward, in line with the ongoing corrective cycle. Expectations and Prospects Based on the theory of support around the 1.1000 level, the volume of short positions could decline, potentially leading to a price rebound. If the price stabilizes above 1.1050, a clearer signal for increased long positions on the euro may emerge. However, if the price stabilizes below the 1.1000 level, further declines toward the 1.0900/1.0950 area are possible. The complex indicator analysis for the short-term period points to a price rebound from the 1.1000 level. For the intraday period, the indicators continue to show a bearish sentiment.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement of EUR/USD Main Currency Pairs, Monday October 07, 2024.


With the appearance of deviations between the price movements of the main currency pair EUR/USD which formed a Higher-High (Double Top) while inversely proportional to the Stochastic Oscillator indicator which actually formed a Higher Low, it gives an indication that in the next few days seller pressure will begin to occur even though a strengthening correction could occur but as long as it does not break above the level of 1.1145, EUR/USD will still remain under pressure and will try to test the level of 1.0943 if this level is successfully broken down, Fiber will try to test the next two targets, namely 1.0829 and 1.0679.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on October 8, 2024


Retail sales in the Eurozone grew by 0.8%, which was only slightly below the forecast of 0.9%. Nevertheless, this is an excellent result after a decline of -0.1%. However, judging by the market's reaction, investors are focused on further strengthening the dollar. Despite the dollar being overbought, no local rebound has occurred, and the market remained stagnant. The formal reason for this was the Eurozone data, which turned out to be slightly worse than expected. But after all, we are talking about sales growth, not a decline. Considering that today's macroeconomic calendar is empty, we will likely see not so much a continuation of the stagnation but rather a slow weakening of the euro.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 09.10.2024

The market seems to be at a standstill, not so much because of the absence of any macroeconomic data but rather due to the anticipation of tomorrow's inflation data release in the United States. Some data has been released, such as crude oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute, which surprised significantly with an increase of 10.9 million barrels. However, these figures rarely substantially impact the market, as they precede the more influential report from the U.S. Department of Energy. Nevertheless, this sharp increase has already led to adjustments in forecasts for today's figures, with investors now expecting a 1.9 million barrel rise in inventories. However, the dollar will wait for the release of inflation data due tomorrow. According to forecasts, the growth rate of consumer prices is likely to slow from 2.5% to 2.3%. Given the dollar's clear overbought status, a slowdown in inflation could be an excellent trigger for a significant correction. However, no one is willing to take risks prematurely, as U.S. data have been full of surprises lately.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 10.10.2024


The dollar continues its triumphant march, even amid talks that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates by fifty basis points again. Today's release of inflation data in the United States fueled these discussions. The growth rate of consumer prices will likely slow from 2.5% to 2.3%, bringing it closer to the target level of 2.0%. However, despite the confident slowdown in inflation, it is doubtful that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will lower the refinancing rate by fifty basis points at its next meeting. After all, inflation is just one of the key indicators. Another is the labor market. Based on recent data, unemployment has once again declined, which supports the case for maintaining higher interest rates. It's clear that the U.S. central bank won't tighten its monetary policy further, but a large-scale easing is also not on the table. Nonetheless, the dollar is overbought, and the market needs at least a local correction. Thus, a slowdown in inflation could be an excellent reason for a correction.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 11, 2024

Yesterday's moderately pessimistic news from the U.S. unsettled the euro, causing it to fluctuate within a daily range of 55 points and close the day with a loss of only 4 points. The number of unemployment benefit claimants increased by 42,000 over the week, casting doubts on the strong employment data from last Friday. The core CPI rose in September from 3.2% to 3.3% year-on-year, while the overall CPI fell from 2.5% to 2.4%, against an expectation of 2.3%. Naturally, the potential ECB rate cut next week is also adding pressure. However, the dollar's balance remains uncertain due to tensions in the Middle East and the simultaneous easing of monetary policy by both the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Considering the ongoing strong growth in the stock and commodity markets, the euro could potentially begin to strengthen ahead of the ECB meeting, as it seeks this balance. Since the start of the week, the euro has only declined by 38 points, clearly indicating its reluctance to fall further.

On the daily chart, the price has consolidated below the 1.0950 level. The long lower shadow indicates that another attempt to reach 1.0882 is unlikely. Even if the euro is declining from the 1.1185 level, this entire movement appears as indecisive trading driven by geopolitical factors. It is likely to end with the price breaking above the 1.1010 level. A breakthrough above 1.1076, along with the MACD line, would signal the euro's return to medium-term growth.

On the four-hour chart, the price's convergence with the oscillator has evolved. The Marlin oscillator is in positive territory but has not yet exited the consolidation range. The reversal is still in progress. Here, the price needs to break above the 1.1010 level to also overcome the resistance of the MACD line. We continue to wait.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 14, 2024

The new economic measures announced by the Chinese government on Saturday did not meet investors' expectations. Essentially, it was only a statement of intent, with plans for gradual implementation, especially in the real estate sector and local governments. Nevertheless, Asian markets are up today, continuing Friday's optimism (S&P 500 up by 0.61%).

Tomorrow, data on industrial production in the Eurozone (1.8% for August) and ZEW indices, which are also expected to show strong growth dynamics, will be released. We expect the price to break above the 1.0950 resistance level.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is fluctuating near the zero line, and the price is under pressure from the indicator lines. The price needs to consolidate above the 1.0950 level before encountering the MACD line; otherwise, the euro could decline below 1.0882.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 15, 2024

The euro stubbornly refuses to reverse direction. Even yesterday's 0.77% rise in the stock market, which set a new all-time high, did not halt the euro's decline. The euro is close to consolidating below the 1.0882 level and collapsing to 1.0777. If this happens, the long-term reversal to a downtrend would have already begun with a turn from 1.1186 in a dull and uneventful manner, without triggering the liquidation of large sell orders (reportedly the largest volumes since April).

This scenario became highly probable this morning due to the proximity of the price to the key level. Additionally, the S&P 500 reached its anticipated reversal target, and oil prices dropped by 3.45% yesterday. Now, we doubt the euro will find the strength, or investors' will, to support the single currency against the ECB's rate cut. If the euro does rise, it is unlikely to go above 1.1010, with the best-case scenario being a move to 1.1076 for a retest of the MACD line. Today, European industrial production data and ZEW business sentiment indexes might provide some support for the euro

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast on EUR/USD from 16.10.2024

It was initially expected that the rate of decline in industrial production in the eurozone would slow from -2.2% to -1.0%, but the decline was replaced by growth of 0.1%. Moreover, previous data was revised upward to -2.1%. The situation in the eurozone's industrial sector was much better than anticipated. Nevertheless, no correction occurred in the currency market. The dollar continued to rise, although the scale of its growth was merely symbolic. The market's behavior seems strange unless we consider the upcoming ECB board meeting. A month and a half ago, the ECB cut the refinancing rate from 4.25% to 3.65%, and after such a significant easing of monetary policy, everyone was confident that interest rates would remain unchanged for the rest of the year. However, at the beginning of this week, rumors started circulating that the ECB might cut the refinancing rate by another 25 basis points—possibly as soon as this Thursday. This is particularly suggested by inflation, which continues to decline steadily. And indeed, on Thursday, the final inflation data will be published, which should confirm this assumption. Thus, the strong industrial production data supported the euro, preventing it from weakening further. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is nearly empty, and the market will likely consolidate around current levels. Ahead of significant events such as the ECB board meeting and the release of inflation data in the eurozone, few will be willing to take major risks.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast on EUR/USD From 17.10.2024

The market seems to no longer doubt that the European Central Bank will again lower the refinancing rate today—by another 25 basis points, from 3.65% to 3.40%. This decision is already being priced into the value of the euro, which has significantly depreciated recently, and there's no doubt that it's oversold. Therefore, even after the ECB announces its decision, there's no need to expect a noticeable weakening of the euro. Given the market's apparent need for at least a local correction, it's likely that soon after the ECB's governing council meeting, we will see the euro rise. This is especially likely if Christine Lagarde announces that inflation targets have been met, meaning that further monetary policy easing is not expected. Such a scenario is quite possible, as preliminary inflation data suggests that the rate of consumer price growth has slowed from 2.2% to 1.8%. The final inflation figures are expected to be published just before the meeting, which should confirm the preliminary estimates.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 18.10.2024

As expected, the European Central Bank lowered the refinancing rate by 25 basis points. However, the central bank managed to deliver a surprise. Over the last three months, the ECB has reduced interest rates by a total of 85 basis points, while inflation has slowed to 1.7%. This was, incidentally, below the preliminary estimate of 1.8%. Against this backdrop, a pause in further monetary easing seemed logical, at the very least. Instead, Christine Lagarde announced yesterday that there would be another rate cut as soon as December of this year by an additional 25 basis points. This development was a complete surprise to investors, and the single European currency continued to lose ground. However, the euro weakening could have been much more significant if it had not been for the U.S. macroeconomic data. Specifically, the growth rate of retail sales in the United States slowed from 2.2% to 1.7%, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than the forecast of 1.6%. On the other hand, the decline in industrial production accelerated from -0.2% to -0.6%, whereas a 0.4% growth had been expected. In other words, the U.S. data provided some support for the euro. In any case, the dollar's overbought condition has worsened even further, and the market will clearly latch onto any minor reason to initiate at least a local correction. However, today's macroeconomic calendar is generally empty. Perhaps the media will provide a reason. The market will likely consolidate around current levels if there are no significant events.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD Technical Analysis for October 21

Higher Time Frames Last week, the bears tested the weekly cloud (1.0862 – 1.0811), but the week ended with only a long lower shadow. The market closed the week above the weekly cloud, so testing these levels will continue. The bears' immediate plans still include breaking through the cloud (1.0862 – 1.0811) and forming a weekly downward target. Meanwhile, the bulls will be aided by the momentum that led to the emergence of an upward correction at the end of last week. This correction's immediate target is the daily short-term trend (1.0897). The next focus will be on the monthly time frame resistances at 1.0912-08 (monthly short-term trend and lower boundary of the monthly cloud) and 1.0932 (weekly medium-term trend).

H4 – H1 The bears still maintain their advantage in the lower time frames, but the pair has risen to the key levels at 1.0855 (central Pivot point of the day) – 1.0874 (weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above this trend and its reversal could shift the balance of power in favor of the bulls. The following targets for upward movement during the day would be the resistances of the classic Pivot points (1.0883 – 1.0899 – 1.0927). If bearish activity resumes and the decline continues, the market's focus will shift to breaking through the supports of the classic Pivot points (1.0839 – 1.0811 – 1.0795).

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 10/22/2024

The anticipated correction for the dollar remains unfulfilled, as the modest signs of its beginning led nowhere. The dollar began to grow actively again. The reason behind this development is a series of statements from Federal Reserve representatives suggesting that there is no need to maintain the current pace of rate cuts. Instead, they even hinted at possibly slowing down the cuts, suggesting a potential pause. This means that by the end of the year, the U.S. central bank might lower rates only once rather than twice as previously anticipated. Not surprisingly, this has fueled the dollar's upward movement. Today, it's the turn of the European Central Bank (ECB) representatives to make statements regarding monetary policy. There's a high chance that the euro might see a rebound, potentially marking the start of the much-anticipated correction. Over the past three months, the ECB has cut the refinancing rate by a total of 85 basis points—a significant reduction. Many expected that the recent ECB Governing Council meeting would not change the rates, which seemed quite reasonable. After such active monetary easing and a drop in inflation below 2.0%, the ECB might opt to pause and observe further developments. This situation could lead to a scenario where, even if the Fed slows its pace of monetary easing, it continues to lower interest rates while the ECB at least takes a short pause, keeping rates steady. This would be enough for the euro to strengthen. Thus, the second attempt at a correction could be successful.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 10/23/2024

Although the refinancing rate in the eurozone has been cut by eighty-five basis points over the past three months, the European Central Bank has no plans to slow the pace of its monetary policy easing. Christine Lagarde essentially stated this directly. However, this did not lead to a significant weakening of the single European currency. The scale of the dollar's strengthening has been purely symbolic, mainly because the dollar is already excessively overbought. Moreover, the European Central Bank head made similar statements during the press conference following the last meeting of the European Central Bank's board. So, she didn't provide any fundamentally new information. Nonetheless, the dollar's overbought condition remains. On the contrary, it has slightly intensified. However, the market cannot grasp anything to implement the much-needed correction. Given that today's macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, at best, we may see only a symbolic weakening of the US dollar.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 24 – Technical Analysis Overview


EUR/USD

Bearish players continue to operate below the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.0811), extending the downtrend. The following bearish targets in this chart section are the daily cloud breakout target (1.0710 – 1.0654) and the monthly support level (1.0611). Bullish players need to rise and consolidate above the weekly cloud (1.0811 – 1.0864) to gain new opportunities and prospects in the current situation, with support from the daily short-term trend (1.0850).

GBP/USD

Yesterday, bearish players left the daily Ichimoku cloud (1.2965) and secured a position below the weekly medium-term trend (1.2939). These levels and the daily short-term trend (1.3003) are currently the nearest targets for bullish players, should they decide to regain their positions and take the initiative. Meanwhile, for the development of the decline and the strengthening of bearish sentiment, the first area of support is at 1.2797 – 1.2864, encompassing the monthly cloud, monthly short-term trend, and the final level of the weekly golden cross of the Ichimoku.

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