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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 9, 2025
On Tuesday, the euro attempted a downward move but failed to reach support at the MACD line, stopping at the target level of 1.1692. The day closed with a white candlestick, increasing the likelihood of a price rebound toward retesting the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1830.
For a downward continuation, the price must settle below the support reached yesterday and also below the MACD line. However, this would require at least two more days. On Friday, a large batch of data is expected from the UK, meaning that the key developments are likely to unfold next week. Trump has postponed the introduction of tariffs from July 9 to August 1.
On the four-hour chart, a convergence has formed. The likelihood of a rise toward 1.1830 now has more technical justification. The MACD line near the 1.1771-mark acts as interim resistance—if this level is broken, the main target will be automatically unlocked.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 14, 2025
Friday's candlestick for the EUR/USD pair closed bearish, with the price consolidating below the daily MACD line. The objective for today is to secure a close below the 1.1692 level. To achieve this, the daily candle must close below that level. The Marlin oscillator has not yet entered negative territory, but visually it is expected to do so tomorrow. Therefore, today is expected to be calm.
A firm break below 1.1692 opens the path toward the target at 1.1535. A correction is expected from that support level, followed by a move toward the second target at 1.1420. If the price consolidates above Friday's high of 1.1714, it will also move back above the MACD line. This would briefly open an alternative scenario with growth toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1832.
On the four-hour chart, Marlin is entering positive territory, but price action remains below the balance indicator line, which empirically suggests sellers still dominate. The pair will likely remain in a sideways trend today with downside pressure ahead of tomorrow's U.S. inflation data.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for July 15, 2025
Following a rebound from the support level at 146.11, the USD/JPY pair has reached the upper line of the wedge pattern on the daily chart and is now targeting the 148.66 resistance level (the May 12 high).
A consolidation above this level would open the path toward 151.30. This scenario is plausible, as Japan is set to hold parliamentary elections (upper house) on July 20, and according to voter polls, the ruling coalition may lose its majority. This raises the risk of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation. Today, U.S. June inflation data will be released. The CPI is expected to rise from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y, which also supports the dollar's strength against the yen.
On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is consolidating along the zero line. Given the local upward trend, this indicates a strengthening bullish momentum.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – July 17: U.S. Inflation Will Only Accelerate
The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Wednesday than it had on Tuesday, remaining relatively stable until the evening. There were no major fundamental or macroeconomic events in either the Eurozone or the U.S. throughout the day. We believe that even the U.S. inflation report published on Tuesday can no longer be considered highly significant under current conditions. More precisely, it remains important, but its influence on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is no longer as significant as it once was. The Fed remains firm in its stance: first, it needs to understand how the finalized tariffs will affect key macroeconomic indicators, then it will make a decision on the key interest rate. Over the past three months, Jerome Powell has seemed to do little else besides publicly discuss inflation. The Fed Chair has repeatedly warned that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is bound to rise if import prices increase by 20–30–40%. Especially when it comes to commodities and metals, which cannot be replaced as easily as consumer goods, now that June has arrived, we are indeed witnessing a rise in inflation. The CPI increased from 2.4% to 2.7% in June. This may not seem like a dramatic jump, but let us highlight two important points. First, Trump's tariffs began to influence inflation in June because, prior to that, American businesses had stockpiled goods at old prices for several months ahead and had neither raised prices nor placed new foreign orders. Therefore, the rise in June inflation is just the beginning. Second, on a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.3%, which translates to an annualized rate of 3.6%. Powell and his colleagues suggest that the inflationary shock might be short-lived and that consumer prices may "stabilize" once final tariff rates are set. But what kind of stabilization can we expect when Donald Trump has signed only 3 out of 75 trade agreements, has prepared new tariff hikes for 24 countries starting August 1, and introduced 50% tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper? This means that average U.S. import tariffs will rise even further from August 1, and even those will not be final. So, if inflation is already acceler
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 21, 2025
The euro continues to trade sideways within the range of 1.1535–1.1692, staying between the balance line (red) and the MACD line (blue).
The Marlin oscillator is slowly declining in negative territory, indicating a higher likelihood of the price breaking below the support level once the sideways movement ends. In that case, the target would be 1.1420. Upward movement is hindered by two resistance levels: 1.1692 and 1.1750.
On the four-hour chart, the price is falling below the balance and MACD lines. There were false breakouts above the balance line, marked by upper candle wicks, indicating weak or misleading bullish attempts. The Marlin oscillator remains in positive territory. Visually, the price may shift into a downward trajectory if it drops to around 1.1600. The price is expected to move toward the lower boundary of the sideways range.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on July 28: The Ideal, Strong Euro
EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis
On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair once again traded with low volatility but demonstrated nearly perfect technical behavior. There was little news during the day, with the only noteworthy report being on durable goods orders, which gave mixed signals. On one hand, the actual figure was better than the forecast. On the other hand, the number of orders in June dropped by 9.3%, which is quite significant. Thus, this report cannot be considered positive. Traders themselves were unsure how to interpret the data. After its release, the pair became volatile, but it was the rebound from the critical line — not the macroeconomic data — that held key significance for the dollar. From a technical perspective, the local uptrend remains in place. Last week, the price saw a slight downward correction, but forming a proper trend line or channel is still not possible — the second extremum is missing. The price failed to consolidate below the critical line, so we expect a new wave of euro growth on Monday. On the 5-minute timeframe, Friday produced two nearly perfect trading signals. First, the price bounced precisely from the 1.1750–1.1760 zone, then dropped to the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator, and rebounded from that line with a small deviation (2 points), eventually returning t
COT Report
The latest COT (Commitment of Traders) report is dated July 22. As shown in the chart above, the net position of non-commercial traders was bullish for a long time. Bears barely took control at the end of 2024, but quickly lost it. Since Trump took office as President of the U.S., the dollar has only declined. While we can't say with 100% certainty that this decline will continue, current global developments suggest this scenario is likely. We still see no fundamental factors supporting the euro, but one strong factor remains weighing on the U.S. dollar. The global downtrend remains intact, but what does it matter where the price has moved over the last 16 years? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may begin to rise — but when will that happen? The position of the red and blue lines in the indicator continues to show a bullish trend. During the last reporting week, long positions held by the "Non-commercial" group increased by 6,200, while shorts increased by 8,900. Therefore, the net position decreased by 1,700 contracts — a negligible change.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 30, 2025
On Tuesday, the euro declined by 42 pips. The downward movement paused at the 55-day moving average (MA55). Now, the test of the target support at 1.1495 — if the market decides to react to new guidance from the FOMC — is likely to occur via a sharp breakout, as it would need to overcome technical supports. If that happens, the next target would be 1.1380.
The current situation on the daily chart is bearish: the price is holding below the indicator lines, the MACD line has turned downward, and the Marlin oscillator is declining in the negative zone. The only question is: how strong will the FOMC signal be regarding a possible rate cut in September? We believe it won't be particularly strong — possibly just one rate cut before the end of the year, without further changes in December. This is due to inflation, which has started to rise again. Additionally, we observe the Federal Reserve's resistance to market-driven signals for rate cuts, particularly in relation to the yield curve. The FOMC is pursuing a deeper, more strategic agenda.
On the H4 chart, the picture is also fully bearish: the price is declining below downward-sloping indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has made a mild correction — a release of pressure to allow for a smoother continuation of the decline. However, if the price breaks above the MACD line (1.1636), an attack on the daily MACD line at 1.1770 becomes possible. But that would be an alternative scenario. Laurie Bailey
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for August 4, 2025
The euro's 170-pip rally on Friday represented a 50% correction from the extremes observed between July 24 and August 1. While the technical picture has noticeably shifted, the core medium-term bearish scenario for the European currency remains intact.
We believe the correction is now complete, and the EUR/USD pair will attempt to reach the target support level at 1.1266, with pullbacks expected from intermediate levels. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the MACD line, but for this move to be classified as a false breakout, a return below this line must occur.
We believe the correction is now complete, and the EUR/USD pair will attempt to reach the target support level at 1.1266, with pullbacks expected from intermediate levels. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the MACD line, but for this move to be classified as a false breakout, a return below this line must occur.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for August 5, 2025
The euro's trading range on Monday was 47 pips, and the day closed with a black (bearish) candlestick. The price failed to make a solid breakout above the balance indicator line. As expected, the market paused Friday's sharp movement.
Today, the euro may start moving in the opposite direction — downward — supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. business activity data and weak numbers from the eurozone. The eurozone services PMI for July is expected to rise from 50.5 to 51.2, but the composite PMI may decline from 52.0 to 51.0. In the U.S., the ISM Services PMI is expected to increase from 50.8 to 51.5, and the composite PMI forecast stands at 54.6 versus the previous 52.9. The key task for the euro today is to close below yesterday's low. The target at 1.1495 also looks attractive. The Marlin oscillator has halted its upward movement and is now poised to decline.
On the H4 chart, the price is consolidating above the MACD line (1.1547). The Marlin oscillator is not yet showing any leading signals. The market is likely to continue sideways until the release of macroeconomic data. However, the longer the price stays sideways above the MACD line, the higher the probability of an upward spike. A firm move below 1.1547 would prepare the euro for a test of the 1.1495 level.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – August 7: Trump Launches a New Round of Trade War Escalation
The EUR/USD currency pair traded with very low volatility for most of Wednesday once again. There are indeed very few macroeconomic events this week, but at the same time, it cannot be said that the news background is absent. We still believe that the events and reports from last week are enough for the dollar to continue declining for about another week. In addition to last week's events, we should also highlight some "fresh news." Over the past few days, Donald Trump has announced the introduction of new tariffs. First, they will concern semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. There is nothing new in this announcement, as last month the U.S. president repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on these categories of goods. This week, he merely confirmed his intentions, stating that medications should be produced in the United States. And to encourage domestic production, all foreign drugs will be subject to tariffs—starting small but rising to as much as 250% in a year and a half to two years. Second, Trump is already moving into a second or even third round. Initially, he introduced individual tariffs against half the countries in the world. Then sector-specific tariffs followed (on cars, copper, steel, and aluminum, for example). Now, Trump is planning to implement "sanction tariffs." What does that mean? It means that if any country refuses to follow Trump's orders, it will face additional tariffs. For instance, India purchases oil from Russia and is perplexed by Washington's prohibition. The reason is that Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine and believes the financial inflows to the Russian budget from oil and gas exports must be limited. Thus, to end the war, all countries must stop buying Russian energy. To force this, Trump came up with "sanction tariffs" that will apply to all imports from such countries (India, in this case) to the U.S. until they stop buying Russian oil and gas—or until the war in Ukraine ends. And these tariffs will be very high.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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