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This is a discussion on Stock Market within the Trading Systems forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Yesterday, the FOMC was clearly hawkish, and with that the US dollar ripped while U.S. equities tanked (at least momentarily). ...

          
   
  1. #81
    Senior Member TechnoMeter's Avatar
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    S&P 500 Bulls Undeterred by Hawkish Fed; Eyes on Slope Resistance

    Yesterday, the FOMC was clearly hawkish, and with that the US dollar ripped while U.S. equities tanked (at least momentarily). The dip in stocks wasn’t really much of a “tank” as the S&P 500 fell only about 10 handles, it just felt like it in this low-volatility environment (VIX closed sub-10). Weakness was short-lived and met with buying no more than about 25-30 minutes after the Fed announcement, erasing all FOMC-induced losses and closing near the highs of the session.

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    Looking at how the market has acted in recent years after notching new record highs we might not have to wait too long for another spat of volatility. The S&P has had a propensity for punishing those who chased the market into record high territory (three occasions since May). It’s a ‘buy-the-dip’ market. Initial breakout buys may have worked, but the better entries have been when others were exiting into declines.

    Where might the market stall and turn back lower? Not far ahead we have a couple of top-side trend-lines. The one line running over peaks back to March comes in around the 2515-mark, while the second one extending back to June isn’t until the 2525/30-area (depending upon timing of arrival). At those points we’ll pay especially close attention to price action and if it suggests we are in for another decline - even if it is only to be corrective in nature. A sharp rejection lower will be our cue. Short-term traders (intra-day to a few days) should at least benefit from this, and for those looking to ‘buy-the-dip’ another decent opportunity might present itself at a later time.

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  2. #82
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    3 Stocks Like Apple Was 10 Years Ago: Tesla, Nvidia, And Alibaba

    When Apple launched the iPhone 10 years ago the stock was at $22 and Wall Street considered it overvalued. Today it trades at $153. If you are looking for stocks like Apple for the next 10 years, take a close look at Tesla, Nvidia, and Alibaba.

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  3. #83
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    McDonald's Beats Starbucks, Chipotle, Wendy's, And Shake Shack

    Buzz has returned to McDonald’s, just as it’s cooling for other franchises.

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  4. #84
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    Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: No Clear Sign Of Altitude Sickness

    The Nikkei 225 is perhaps the Asia/Pacific index most inclined to reflect the exhuberance of Wall Street where record highs for Dow, S&P, Nasdaq or all of them at once are now so common as to be barely worthy of remark.
    The Japanese benchmark is nowhere near its own record peak. That was hit way back in 1989. However, the index has scaled two year tops this week, boosted by US vigor and the prognosis that the Japanese Yen should weaken in the quarter ahead. This prospect always suits Japan’s plentiful export titans whose goods stand to look more attractibe to US consumers.

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    So there are the fundamentals. But how safe is the Nikkei looking at these heights, technically speaking?
    Well, the moving averages at least paint a rather positive picture. The Nikkei is above its 20-, 50- and 100-day averages and the 20-day has crossed above both its longer-term counterparts since mid-September. This is usually seen as a pretty bullish sign.

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  5. #85
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    Google May Share Its Titanic Revenues And Targeting Skills With News Outlets

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    In an era when digital advertising is widely dominated by the 'Big Two,' news that Google might give media a cut has the internet buzzing, and raises the question, 'What will Facebook do?'

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  6. #86
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    Bitcoin Trading Strategies

    At the time of writing, Bitcoin has gone through an explosive price increase over a brief period. One implication of this is that it cannot go on forever. As time passes, the type of trading strategy that will be most useful to Bitcoin traders will change. At the time of writing, determining the trend by looking at the price over a short time frame, for example by asking if it is up or down over the past 4 weeks, will usually work well. As price movements become more normalized over time, that useful time frame will lengthen towards something closer to the 13 weeks or so which, tends to be most useful look-back period in trading fiat currency pairs.

    Until Bitcoin goes through this change of slowing down in its volatility, the most profitable strategies to use will probably rank in this order:

    1. Entering early after reversals at counter-trend extremes, such as 1 or 2-day highs or lows, using price action to determine reversals.
    2. Entering early after reversals at support and resistance levels where a lower high or higher low is formed, using price action to determine reversals.
    3. Entering on breakouts after high-range moves in the direction of the trend.

    As cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum “mature”, these strategies will probably become more effective in the reverse order to that in which I have listed them, with breakouts after high-range moves being the most profitable strategy and using price action to determine reversals the least profitable.

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  7. #87
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    Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: This Week’s Low Badly Needs To Hold

    The breakneck climb from early September saw the Tokyo stock benchmark rise to highs not seen for more than 25 years. Recent peaks had been unmatched since the dawning days of January 1992, and they came backed up by gains for other global bourses. However of course they also saw the index become grievously overbought. A 4000-point climb in a little over two months will have that effect.

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    Now the index has begun to retrace and that might be no bad thing. So far at least market action suggests a reasonable pause to re-group rather than a sudden outpouring of regret at all this autumn bullishness. Wednesday’s intraday low is the nadir of the pullback so far. It came in at 21,818 – exactly at the second, 38.2% retracement of the rise up from September 8’s lows.

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  8. #88
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    DAX Technical Analysis: Trading in Tight Window of Support & Resistance

    On Wednesday, the DAX broke down below important support in the low-12900s, but managed to recover by the close of the session to put in a modest reversal-day. This helped keep a bid in the market, but it’s a sticky area with key support in place by way of the consolidation period during October and prior high in June and resistance at the long-term top-side trend-lines crossing over in the current vicinity and just above. A lot going on in a tight window.

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    The key to keeping a floor in the market at this juncture is last week’s low at 12847. A close below and another leg lower will have eyes on the July swing-high at 12676, and then an important long-term trend-line dating back to the June low from last year. Also in that same vicinity is the 200-day MA.

    The longer it takes for the market to lift risk increases with each passing day that we are seeing a pause before a break towards the aforementioned levels. If the DAX can convincingly gain traction, there aren’t any substantial levels to contend with until the prior record high at 13525. But this doesn’t mean it will be easy getting back to those levels. The recent pullback was strong, it may take some time for market confidence to rebuild again if we are to see a serious attempt on making new record highs.

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  9. #89
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    Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Just Hanging On or Ready for Takeoff?

    The index remains at first glance very much where it was; a shade below this year’s overall highs but certainly holding on at a relatively elevated level. However, appearances can be deceptive. For there have been some changes to the picture and they’re quite encouraging ones for any bulls out there even if they’re hard to spot. For one thing the trading range has narrowed somewhat, in that its base is now clearly a little higher. Last week we were looking at 21,853, now it’s more like 21,173. At face value this looks encouraging. Not only are we seeing “higher lows”, but the pattern looks broadly consolidative which may mean that the index pushes on higher once it breaks.

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    Note that the index doesn’t look either oversold or overbought to any great degree at present. That is a probably welcome change from the situation in early November. Back then it was overbought with a vengeance. Now its Relative Strength Index has collapsed back to a sober 54, well below the exuberant 80-plus levels hit back then. The safety zone is generally considered to be between 30 and 70. That the Nikkei can look so relaxed at current levels is probably also a reassuring sign.

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  10. #90
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    S&P 500 May Climb Higher as Trader Sentiment Shifts

    US 500: Retail trader data shows 26.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.81 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.7% lower than yesterday and 10.9% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.1% higher than yesterday and 8.0% higher from last week.

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    We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests US 500 prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger US 500-bullish contrarian trading bias.

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