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This is a discussion on Stock Market within the Trading Systems forums, part of the Trading Forum category; One of the key elements of the G7 meeting is the continued communication regarding global participation in key infrastructure projects ...

          
   
  1. #121
    Senior Member Technician's Avatar
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    G7, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices

    One of the key elements of the G7 meeting is the continued communication regarding global participation in key infrastructure projects and national cooperation in regards to economic stability.

    Stock Market-indhsi-d1-just2trade-online-ltd1.png


    Right now, a lot of concern has been directed towards the Emerging Markets and what appears to be a near term market collapse. Debt spreads and global indexes have been moving in a pattern that clearly illustrates the Central Banks problems in containing the diverse economic conditions throughout the globe. Infrastructure projects, social/political shifts and currency valuations are complicating matters by creating extended pressures in many global economies recently. All of this centers around the strength of the US economy and the US dollar as related to expectations and valuations of other foreign economies and currencies.

    Almost like a double-edged sword, as the US economy/dollar continues to strengthen, foreign capital will migrate into these US assets because of the inherent protection and gains provided by the strength and growth of these markets. While at the same time, the exodus of capital from these foreign markets create a vacuum of value/capability that results in a continued decline in asset valuations and more.

    The Hang Seng Index is setting up a possible topping pattern that could break down given state and corporate debt concerns.

    The US markets are setup for a continued bullish rally with a bit of Summer capital shifts. Our recent research called the rotation out of the tech-heavy NASDAQ and a renewed capital shift into the S&P and the DOW leaders. This rotation is likely to continue for many weeks or months as global investors realize the earnings capabilities and dividends values within the US blue chips are of far greater long term value than the risks associated with technology and bio-tech firms. Because of this, we believe the S&P and DOW/Transports are setting up for a massive price rally to break recent all-
    time market highs.

    Our opinion continues to support the hypothesis that the US markets are the only game on the planet (at the moment) and that a great capital shift is underway in terms of investment in, purchases of and generally opportunistic investment opportunities for US equities and markets going forward. Until something changes where the US dollar strength, foreign economic weakness and foreign debt cycles are abated or resolved, we believe the great capital shift that we have been warning of will continue which will put continued pressures on certain foreign markets and expand debt burdens of at-risk nations over time.

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  2. #122
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    DAX Index: Ahead of ECB

    Lately, the DAX has been displaying messy price action, see-sawing back-and-forth with few clues as to what all the chop may mean. There is, however, one possibly bearish sequence developing should a lower-high maintain and continue along the path of building of a bear-flag. The bear-flag, if that is the eventual outcome, is arriving at an interesting spot given the underside parallel of the pattern is also the trend-line rising up from the March low. A break of the pattern would then have trend support violated in addition to pattern validation & a solid combination.

    Stock Market-de30index-h8-fx-choice-limited.png


    In this situation a lower-low would need to develop below 12547 for momentum to pick up in a meaningful way. Given the choppiness of the bear-flag, this isn't the easiest scenario and could lead to further horizontal price action. But we'll run with what is presented to us and adjust accordingly.

    For the market to position itself for further strength, the grind higher at some point soon will need to pick up momentum and clear through the 12900s, but then also the trend-line off the record high and the May high at 13204. If it can do that, then a test of the old record high could be in order.

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  3. #123
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    Why You Should Not Sell Facebook Yet

    Facebook is up 30% in the last three months. Of the eight Marketocracy managers who own Facebook, only Wayne Himelsein was willing to buy Facebook at current prices. Since no one is selling the stock, the consensus seems to be that Facebook is moderately undervalued right now. John Archer explains. John first bought Facebook for his TAB fund in November 2016 at $122. He increased his position by 50% in July 2017 at $163. Two months later he increased his position by 66% paying $170. At $196, Facebook is 6% of his TAB fund.

    Stock Market-fbdaily.png


    Ken Kam: All of your Facebook purchases are now solidly profitable. You are not buying Facebook at $196, but you aren't selling it either. What do you think is "fair value" for Facebook?

    John Archer: I believe Facebook's current fair value range is between $200 and $250 based on a discounted cash flow model.

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  4. #124
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    Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Breakdown

    The Nikkei 225 remains caught in a quite pervasive downtrend, which has endured since it topped out back on June 12. That peak itself was quiet significant as it came in at 23023, which is just about exactly where the bulls had been routed in their previous assault. That petered out on May 19. Coupled with the latest bull failure it looks as though we might be seeing a double top reversal for the Tokyo stock benchmark, which could well portend further significant losses.

    Stock Market-japanindex-d1-fx-choice-limited1.png


    However, the index remains for the moment above 21647. That’s an important level as it represents 50% retracement of the climb up from the lows of late March to those twin recent peaks of 23023. It is also the third key Fibonacci retracement level. The first two have already given way in a two-week period which began on June 19. That day's sharp fall saw the first Fibonacci level of 22378 surrendered on a daily close.

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  5. #125
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    S&P 500 - Bullish Bias

    US 500: Retail trader data shows 39.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.56 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since May 03 when US 500 traded near 2652.24; price has moved 3.3% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.2% lower than yesterday and 5.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.7% higher than yesterday and 13.6% higher from last week.

    Stock Market-us500index-d1-fx-choice-limited-2.png


    We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests US 500 prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger US 500-bullish contrarian trading bias.

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  6. #126
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    Why You Should Buy Facebook And Alphabet In September

    On September 28, Facebook and Alphabet will be reclassified from the Information Technology sector to the Communications Services sector. About 74% of Facebook and 80% of Alphabet is owned by mutual funds, ETFs and other institutions. The problem is that there are a lot more Technology funds that have to sell than Communications funds that will have to buy. Tony Mitchell, one of my managers, believes this imbalance will probably make it a good time to buy Facebook and Alphabet.

    Tony Mitchell, one of my managers, believes an order imbalance is brewing that will probably create a good entry point for Facebook and Alphabet in September.

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  7. #127
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    What To Expect From Facebook's Q2 Earnings

    Facebook’s is scheduled to announce its Q2 results on Wednesday, July 25. The second quarter was a crucial period for the company following the Cambridge Analytica data scandal

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  8. #128
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    Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Ranging Near Bearish Reversal

    In the bigger scheme of things, the Nikkei 225 remains in an uptrend when looking at the chart below. You can see it is being supported by a rising trend line dating back to June 2016. However, its progress in 2018 so far has been rather shaky. Thus far, it has been oscillating in a range between 24,180 and 20,278. For it to make its leg move higher, it does face some obstacles ahead.

    Stock Market-japanindex-d1-fx-choice-limited.png


    Zooming in on the daily chart shows that the index is also in a near-term uptrend which began earlier this month with the formation of a hammer bullish reversal candlestick formation. Since then, the Nikkei 225 also formed a near-term rising trend line. However, the index has struggled on multiple occasions to push above the May high established at 23,042 and appears to have formed a triple top bearish reversal pattern.

    A break below near-term support could thus pave the way for its next leg lower and immediately ahead is the July 23rd low at 22,339. A push below that exposes the 23.6% and 14.6% Fibonacci extensions at 22,095 and 21,851 respectively. However, for a lasting reversal and one that could perhaps end up overturning the long-term uptrend from 2016, we would need to get below the June line and then the March low at 20,278.

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  9. #129
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    What To Expect From Twitter Through 2018 After Stock Plunge

    Twitter announced its second quarter results on Friday, July 27, reporting a 24% increase in net revenues to $711 million. Revenue growth was ahead of market expectations as well as our expectations.

    For the full year, Twitter expects a mid-single digit sequential decline in MAUs through Q3 due to three key factors. Firstly, the company’s decision to no longer renew paid SMS carrier relationships in some markets could impact near term growth. Secondly, the company’s added focus on complying with the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation could have an impact. And lastly, the company is increasingly focused on improving the health of the platform by removing fake news, hate speech and other such areas, which may take a toll on near-term metrics.

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  10. #130
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    Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Ranging

    The Nikkei 225’s daily chart points to a touch of technical stasis, of the sort now quite common across the equity market space. The Tokyo stock benchmark has settled into a broad range since late July at what- by recent standards- are quite elevated levels. While bulls can if they like take some comfort that the market is clearly in no hurry to take cash off the table, there is clearly little impetus to push on towards recent highs, which remain just out of reach.

    Stock Market-japanindex-w1-fx-choice-limited.png


    Of course, the range will break eventually but so far the Nikkei is offering chart watchers few clues as to when that day might come, or to which side it will be. As long as mid-July’s top of 22,927 remains unthreatened on a daily-closing basis we might guess that the index is probably biased lower, but that’s only a possibility. The range is fairly broad, bounded to the downside by 22,317 and to the top by 22,830, so just playing it until it breaks offers at least some opportunity.

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