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This is a discussion on Stock Market within the Trading Systems forums, part of the Trading Forum category; One of the key elements of the G7 meeting is the continued communication regarding global participation in key infrastructure projects ...

  1. #121
    Senior Member Technician's Avatar
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    Feb 2013

    G7, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices

    One of the key elements of the G7 meeting is the continued communication regarding global participation in key infrastructure projects and national cooperation in regards to economic stability.

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    Right now, a lot of concern has been directed towards the Emerging Markets and what appears to be a near term market collapse. Debt spreads and global indexes have been moving in a pattern that clearly illustrates the Central Banks problems in containing the diverse economic conditions throughout the globe. Infrastructure projects, social/political shifts and currency valuations are complicating matters by creating extended pressures in many global economies recently. All of this centers around the strength of the US economy and the US dollar as related to expectations and valuations of other foreign economies and currencies.

    Almost like a double-edged sword, as the US economy/dollar continues to strengthen, foreign capital will migrate into these US assets because of the inherent protection and gains provided by the strength and growth of these markets. While at the same time, the exodus of capital from these foreign markets create a vacuum of value/capability that results in a continued decline in asset valuations and more.

    The Hang Seng Index is setting up a possible topping pattern that could break down given state and corporate debt concerns.

    The US markets are setup for a continued bullish rally with a bit of Summer capital shifts. Our recent research called the rotation out of the tech-heavy NASDAQ and a renewed capital shift into the S&P and the DOW leaders. This rotation is likely to continue for many weeks or months as global investors realize the earnings capabilities and dividends values within the US blue chips are of far greater long term value than the risks associated with technology and bio-tech firms. Because of this, we believe the S&P and DOW/Transports are setting up for a massive price rally to break recent all-
    time market highs.

    Our opinion continues to support the hypothesis that the US markets are the only game on the planet (at the moment) and that a great capital shift is underway in terms of investment in, purchases of and generally opportunistic investment opportunities for US equities and markets going forward. Until something changes where the US dollar strength, foreign economic weakness and foreign debt cycles are abated or resolved, we believe the great capital shift that we have been warning of will continue which will put continued pressures on certain foreign markets and expand debt burdens of at-risk nations over time.


  2. #122
    Senior Member TechnoMeter's Avatar
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    Apr 2013
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    DAX Index: Ahead of ECB

    Lately, the DAX has been displaying messy price action, see-sawing back-and-forth with few clues as to what all the chop may mean. There is, however, one possibly bearish sequence developing should a lower-high maintain and continue along the path of building of a bear-flag. The bear-flag, if that is the eventual outcome, is arriving at an interesting spot given the underside parallel of the pattern is also the trend-line rising up from the March low. A break of the pattern would then have trend support violated in addition to pattern validation & a solid combination.

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    In this situation a lower-low would need to develop below 12547 for momentum to pick up in a meaningful way. Given the choppiness of the bear-flag, this isn't the easiest scenario and could lead to further horizontal price action. But we'll run with what is presented to us and adjust accordingly.

    For the market to position itself for further strength, the grind higher at some point soon will need to pick up momentum and clear through the 12900s, but then also the trend-line off the record high and the May high at 13204. If it can do that, then a test of the old record high could be in order.

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  3. #123
    Senior Member FXstreet's Avatar
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    Mar 2013
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    Why You Should Not Sell Facebook Yet

    Facebook is up 30% in the last three months. Of the eight Marketocracy managers who own Facebook, only Wayne Himelsein was willing to buy Facebook at current prices. Since no one is selling the stock, the consensus seems to be that Facebook is moderately undervalued right now. John Archer explains. John first bought Facebook for his TAB fund in November 2016 at $122. He increased his position by 50% in July 2017 at $163. Two months later he increased his position by 66% paying $170. At $196, Facebook is 6% of his TAB fund.

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    Ken Kam: All of your Facebook purchases are now solidly profitable. You are not buying Facebook at $196, but you aren't selling it either. What do you think is "fair value" for Facebook?

    John Archer: I believe Facebook's current fair value range is between $200 and $250 based on a discounted cash flow model.

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