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Master trader and instructor, Eric Ochotnicki talks to Merlin about the current “Risk-Off” environment and what it means for long term investors. The duo take a look at why the ProActive investor XLT program uses 3 different portfolios and why it’s important you choose the correct one! Eric also offers his thoughts on some key levels where buying into the market might make sense.
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Food prices in New Zealand tumbled 0.8 percent on month in September, Statistics New Zealand said on Monday - following the 0.3 percent gain in August and a 0.7 percent decline in July.
Fruit and vegetable prices fell 6.5 percent on month. Lower vegetable prices (down 11 percent) were the most significant contributor to the monthly fall in food prices, the bureau said, with price falls for lettuce, tomatoes, cucumber, and capsicums.
"Lower food prices in September came from seasonally cheaper vegetables, partly countered by a rise in meat prices," prices manager Chris Pike said.
Grocery food prices fell 0.2 percent, with lower prices for butter and cheese. Prices for confectionery, nuts, and snacks (down 0.9 percent) also fell. Prices were higher for cakes and biscuits (up 4.4 percent), and yogurt.
Meat, poultry, and fish prices rose 1.2 percent, influenced by higher prices for processed meat, pork, lamb, and beef. Non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 0.6 percent, influenced by less discounting on soft drinks.
On a yearly basis, food prices eased 0.1 percent after climbing 0.7 percent in the previous month.
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John O’Donnell calls in from Vancouver where he is teaching a free class on market timing. Merlin and John talk about some of the market evolution that has happened in Canada. Other topic include oil, precious metals, global currencies and much more!
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India's consumer price inflation eased more-than-expected in September as the pace of increase in food prices slowed sharply, preliminary data from the Central Statistics Office showed Monday.
The consumer price index rose 6.46 percent year-on-year after a 7.73 percent climb in August, slightly revised from 7.80 percent. Economists had forecast an inflation figure of 7.11 percent.
Food price inflation tumbled to 7.67 percent from 9.35 percent in the previous month.
The Reserve Bank of India targets to bring inflation to 8 percent by January 2015 and to 6 percent by January 2016.
While leaving rates unchanged last month for a fourth policy session, the central bank noted that although upside risks to inflation were receding, food price shocks could pose upside risks as the full effects of the monsoon's passage unfold and geopolitical developments that could materialize rapidly.
The central bank also noted that the balance of risks to it medium-term inflation target of 6 percent by January 2016 remained on the upside.
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Russia's central bank spent around $6 billion in the past ten days to defend the country's currency ruble, the Central Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina said Monday.
Speaking in the Duma, the lower house of Russia's parliament, Nabiullina said the central bank is currently supporting the exchange rate and selling funds from its reserves, the state-run news agency ITAR-Tass reported.
She also warned that attempts to fix the ruble exchange rate may backfire as it could lead to steeper one-time declines in the ruble that can hurt the economy.
The ruble is not currently in a complete free float and remains under the influence of market factors such as oil prices. The bank does not intend to stop its forex market interventions completely and will continue with them if there are risks to financial stability, the central banker added.
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Markets continued their downside momentum Monday, even in lieu of positive comments that the fed will not raise rates for longer than expected. Part of the selloff was due to fear in the market place, and focus on Ebola. Master Instructor, Roger Best, joins Merlin for a look at how these major news headlines spread fear and create market moves as well as trading opportunities. Roger also shares his thoughts on market levels and where he sees things headed.
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Oil was crushed and more market instability is spreading. Master Trader Tim Pesut joins Merlin to talk about some pressing issues facing global currencies. Including: The US Dollar, the Euro, Putin, China, Oil and much more!
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Markets had one of the more volatile days in a LONG time! Huge move down and then right back up! Options Master Steve Moses joins Merlin to break down how to handle this skyrocketing volatility! Steve also walks listeners through a current trade he opened this afternoon, which capitalizes on this volatility and will expire in 48 hours! The duo also answer several listener questions, did they answer yours? Tune in and find out!
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The Indian government on Thursday appointed a U.S.-based economist Arvind Subramanian as the Chief Economic Adviser for a term of 3 years.
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Online Trading Academy’s rock star instructor, Jose Blasco sits down with Merlin for a look at some market timing elements and great recent calls! Jose explains what elements caused him to spot the market turn on October 6th, and why he sees much more downside movement.
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Merlin Rothfeld, John O’Donnell and Patrick Barron talk about several key issues facing our markets including fractional reserve banking and the European Union. Professor Barron points to his article about the demise of the euro, and discusses how the breakup could lead to a new world reserve currency.
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I have been a landlord for over 25 years and I’ve learned a lot of lessons about what to do and what not to do, many of which I learned the hard way, aka making mistakes. One of the keys for me was learning how to remove the emotion from the decision. This can often be easier said than done because we are people dealing with people and many times they can have compelling circumstances.Here are a few ways you can help if someone is really in trouble that owes you rent.There are many organizations that can help with a month’s rent if people need to get back on their feet.Create a reasonable payment plan.Help them move on. It could be cheaper than letting them stay and not getting your rent.The most valuable thing you can do is your due diligence up front. Having well defined boundaries is also very important. Here is a list of things that might help you with that process:
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It all starts with the rental application. Have a clear, simple but well written application. The most important information is social security number, permission to run a credit report and work history.It is also important to get rental history, but often people don’t want you verifying their current residency because they may not end up leaving. The one thing I try and keep in mind is that if they tell me they have been a victim of a “bad” or “unfair” landlord – there is a greater likelihood that they will view me that way no matter my policies.I have done business with family and friends before and it has worked out OK when there are VERY clear boundaries – but as a general policy, I won’t rent to friends or family.It is an easy fix sometimes to let residents do their own repairs but I would recommend against it. I’ve even had “professionals” as tenants in the past and let them do work without over seeing it. I came to find out that our tastes were different – haha.Always do an inspection report prior to a tenant moving in. Make sure that it is signed and documented with pictures and video. Also make sure it’s date verified – either electronically or as simple as having a newspaper in one of the photos.A couple of years ago I was having troubles with tenants and noise. So I created a Rental Code of Conduct. It was simple but set expectations and created penalties for violators.I think it’s a great idea to require your tenants to carry renters insurance and I know this is done in the major complexes. Honestly, I haven’t been very good at implementing this but it’s an excellent idea.I set the expectation that there will be a rental increase with each new lease. I let them know it will be small but consistent.Make sure that owners of the properties on either side of yours have your phone number in case there is a neighborhood issue and vice versa.I keep my rentals in good condition and competitively priced, which translates into good tenants.I try to upgrade something on my properties every year. This allows the tenants to see that I care about my asset. But be careful because that might get them thinking they can just keep asking for things.
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Fresh off teaching a Forex class online, Mike McMahon joins Merlin and shares his feelings on this big 9 day bounce! Many global events are pushing the move, and Mike discusses why he feels it is the next leg of the Bull Rally! Mike and Merlin also take a look at some other currency pairs, including the all powerful Dollar!
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Consumer prices in the U.S. unexpectedly showed a modest increase in the month of September, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Wednesday, with higher prices for food and shelter offsetting a continued decline in energy prices.
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Jeff Manson joins Merlin to talk about some of his money management learning lessons and perspectives on the US dollar. Several listeners are struggling with rules and money management, so Jeff and Merlin help them out.
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New Zealand had a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$1,350 million in September, Statistics New Zealand said on Friday.
Attachment 10379
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While the Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing a modest increase in new home sales in the U.S. in the month of September, the uptick came from a significantly downwardly revised level in August.
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Great bullish move to the upside for all 4 major indices this week, yet fear still has not abated. John and Merlin take a look at the market and offer insights as to what’s driving it, and how we should approach it. They also talk about the trading industry as a profession and the best way to get involved with the financial markets. Finally, John tips the scales for his weekly weigh in!
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India is set to for 5.6 percent growth in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2015, the World Bank said in a report on Monday.
In its latest India Development Update, the lender predicted an acceleration in growth to 6.4 percent in fiscal 2016 and further to 7 percent in fiscal 2017.
The implementation of the Goods and Services Tax and the dismantling of inter-state check posts could significantly improve the competitiveness of Indian manufacturing, the World Bank said.
"With economic reforms gaining momentum, long-term prospects for growth remain bright for India," said Onno Ruhl, World Bank Country Director in India.
"To realize its full potential, India needs to continue making progress on its domestic reforms agenda and encourage investments. The government's efforts at improving the performance of the manufacturing sector will lead to more jobs for young Indian women and men."
The report projected inflation to ease to 4.3 percent in the current fiscal, from 6.0 percent in the previous year. The FY 2014 current account deficit of 1.7 percent was forecast to widen marginally to 2.0 percent as import demand picks up and capital inflows rise.
While fiscal consolidation was expected to continue through expenditure restraint, there was room for revenue mobilization to strengthen, the report added.
"India's longer term growth potential remains high due to favorable demographics, relatively high savings, recent policies and efforts to improve skills and education, and domestic market integration," the report said.
"Improved growth prospects in the US will support India's merchandise and services exports, while stronger remittance inflows and declining oil prices are expected to support domestic demand."
The risks to the projections include external shocks such as financial market disruptions arising out of changes in monetary policy in high income countries, slower global growth, higher oil prices, and adverse investor sentiment due to geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the World Bank said.
On the domestic front, the risks include challenges to energy supply and fiscal pressures from weak revenue collection.
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October has been very volatile, which many find a nuisance. For active traders, it’s a blessing! Short term trader and 40 year veteran from the CBOE, shares his thoughts on how to deal with the volatility and what he likes to trade. Merlin and Craig also answer several listener questions dealing with trading plans and specific stocks.
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2014-10-29 18:00 GMT (or 19:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
- past data is 0.25%
- forecast data is 0.25%
- actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.
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Federal Reserve calls end to QE3
The US Federal Reserve has announced the formal conclusion of its latest bond-buying program, commonly referred to as QE3, while reaffirming plans to hold interest rates at current levels for a "considerable time".
The US central bank said it would make a final $US15 billion taper to its quantitative easing program from next month, concluding a 10-month process that has seen it gradually reduce its bond buying from $US85 billion.
The widely expected move came at the end of a two-day meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with market eyes now shifting to the central bank’s view on the US economy and outlook for rate hikes.
“The committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labour market since the inception of its current asset purchase program,” the Fed’s statement read.
“Moreover, the committee continues to see sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability.
“Accordingly, the committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month.”
“The committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 0.25 per cent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month,” the Fed advised.
“However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the committee's employment and inflation objectives than the committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated.
“Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.”
The Janet Yellen-led central bank noted that the US economy had expanded at a "moderate" pace since its last meeting in mid-September, while the underutilisation of labour resources was "gradually diminsihing" and long-term inflation expectations remained "stable".
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The full text of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement.
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EURUSD M5: 97 pips price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event:
Attachment 10505
USDJPY M5: 85 pips price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event :
Attachment 10506
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This is GOLD (XAUUSD):
Attachment 10509
The unemployment rate in Japan came in at 3.6 percent in September, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday - in line with expectations and up from 3.5 percent in August.
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Patrick Barron continues his discussion with John O’Donnell and Merlin Rothfeld about the fall of the Euro. This would also lead to the rise of the German Mark which Mr. Barron feels would become the world reserve currency. This is because of its lack of debt and industry. Tune in to find out how this will impact global markets and trading opportunities.
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Consumer sentiment in the U.S. improved by more than previously estimated in the month of October, according to a report released by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan on Friday. The report said the final reading on the consumer sentiment index for October came in at 86.9 compared to the mid-month reading of 86.4.
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John interviews Dr. Richard Ebeling , Professor of Austrian Economics at Citadel University and a leading economist in the Austrian tradition. They discuss the journey Richard led to discover the Ludwig von Mises personal papers and archive in 1991. Mises' papers were originally stolen by Hitler in the first world war.
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Australia's retail sales increased at a faster than expected rate in September, a report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Tuesday.
Retail sales grew 1.2 percent month-over-month in September following the 0.1 percent rise in August. This was more than the 0.3 percent increase expected by economists.
Among the sub-groups, household goods retailing rose the most, by 4.1 percent. Sales in cafes, restaurants and take away food services advanced 2 percent.
Sales in department stores increased 1.3 percent. Food sales and clothing, footwear and personal accessory sales grew 0.4 percent each.
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Fresh out of teaching an Options class in Irvine CA, Mr. Greenberg joins Merlin for a look at why most people lose money trading options, and the simple things they can do to stop losing! Joel talks about how he trades options using some XLT indicators and a rule based approach. This simple methodology lacks glitz, but gets consistent returns!
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Tillie Allison joins Merlin for a look at the Bond market situation and what we should be looking out for. Many feel bonds are the way to go, and that may not be the case. Tillie also offers some insights into market timing and how allocation models play a role on achieving a higher rate of return. All callers during the show will also receive a free copy of Tillie Allison’s DVD “How To Retire With More Money Than You Need”
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While teaching a class in Vancouver Canada, John O’Donnell calls in to talk to Merlin about the recent unemployment and jobs data. While things look rosy, John points out some red flags which paint a different picture. The duo also look at commodities and Gold for some trend analysis.
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Russia's central bank on Monday allowed the ruble to float freely, after it fell heavily in recent weeks, and cut the country's economic growth forecasts on the premise that the Western sanctions would remain until the end of 2017. The Bank of Russia announced in a statement that it was abandoning the ruble's trading corridor and regular foreign currency market interventions.
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For 38 years Michael Young has been trading a variety of asset classes, and seen many things! He joins Merlin to talk about market pattens and what emphasis he places on thise, as well as what he sees as good trading opportunities going forward. The duo take a look at the dollar, oil, gold, silver and much more! They also talk about an end of year trade plan review which is designed to help traders learn and improve.
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Global currency markets are providing some great trading opportunities, and economic issues are adding even more fuel to the fire! Master trader Tim Pesut joins Merlin for an in-depth look at a variety of topics facing the global markets. From the Swiss gold referendum to the US Dollar, Japanese Yen to Oil, and even Prostitution and Drugs! Definitely a full plate of topics!
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With markets teetering at highs, Jerry Baldwin walks us through what he is covering with his students trading futures in Irvine California. He walks listeners through a few of the reasons they are trading the way they are this week and also offers some insights into the trade setups he is focusing on. Merlin and Jerry talk about money management as well as how the trading industry works.
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Since the 1980’s, the retirement industry has transformed. Shifting the retirement investment responsibility from your employer to you. Most have no clue how to achieve the rate of return needed to retire comfortably, and make those funds last 20+ years! Joel Greenberg joins Merlin and breaks down some of the considerations investors should be looking to make when planning their retirement.
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Many market experts are calling for a MUCH higher dollar, and this could have significant impacts for the markets. John O’Donnell joins Merlin Rothfeld for a breakdown of how this might impact: Oil, Gold, bonds, global currencies and much more.
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China is slowing, Europe can’t get off the ground, Japan is in a recession, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg! Master Trader Scott McCormick joins Merlin Rothfeld for a look at the pressing issues facing our economy and markets around the world. The duo breaks down the US Dollar and its impact on the equity markets as well as how the bond market risks are elevating with the future Fed action.
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Each day we are faced with decisions involving personal finances. If we make the wrong decision, it can have a significant on our ability to make other choices in life. On this show, Merlin takes a look at how decisions in our lives can be modified to increase income, and maximize output. Simple steps to grow wealth, build up capital to enjoy the life we always envisioned.
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China's central bank on Friday unexpectedly cut its key interest rates for the first time in more than two years in a bid to boost sagging growth momentum. The People's Bank of China reduced the one-year lending rate by 40 basis points to 5.6 percent. The one-year deposit rate was cut by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent.
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Hong Kong's export growth slowed more-than-expected in October as demand from the EU and Japan remained weak, data from the Census and Statistics Department showed Tuesday.
Exports rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in October, much slower than September's 4.5 percent growth. Economists had forecast a 3.4 percent climb for October.
The pace of growth in exports eased for a fourth straight month from June's 11.4 percent gain.
Compared to the same month last year, exports to Asia as a whole increased by 1.7 percent in October. Exports to U.S.A grew 3.7 percent, while those to Germany and the U.K. fell by 12.3 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.
Total imports surged 5.6 percent in October, faster than economists' expectation for a 4.3 percent growth. In September, imports climbed 6.3 percent.
The visible trade deficit in October widened to HK$49.8 billion from HK$38.05 billion in the same month last year. In September, the shortfall was HK$50.37 billion. Economists had forecast a deficit of HK$45.3 billion.
"Looking ahead, the performance of Hong Kong's exports in the near term will likely continue to be constrained by the modest expansion of the global economy, against the backdrop of the lack of growth in the eurozone and Japan as well as geopolitical tensions in various parts of the world," a government spokesman said.
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Mike McMahon shares his insights into the current bullish dollar run and what It might mean for our markets going forward. Mike and Merlin also look at the New Zealand dollar, Halliburton, the Dixie, and much more. Mike also makes some unbelievable calls for the market going forward. Tune in and find out what they are!!
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