Kathy Lien on Her Approach to Forex Trading
Kathy Lien on Her Approach to Forex Trading
- Kathy got her start in forex trading in 1999. She started at JP Morgan in a rotational program that gave her introduction to many markets, which is how she realized currencies is something she wanted to focus on.
- Kathy identifies herself as both an intraday trader and a swing trader. She is in and out of positions in the same day for many of her trades; for some of her swing trades she will hold positions for a few days, but rarely more than 5.
- Kathy focuses less on risk/reward and more on identifying high probability trades.
- She always places a stop and a limit.
- She trades EURUSD the most for her intraday trading, but uses other cross pairs for her swing trades.
- She develops a fundamental view, based on how she sees things shaping up over the next week or 2 months, then looks for technical signs that give her the okay to enter.
- She is a breakout trader, looking to follow momentum.
- She believes news events can serve as the catalyst that validate her fundamental viewpoint, and thus will place trades in anticipation of market reactions to news events that validate her thesis.
- She pays close attention to data from China, as it can have a big impact on currency markets. She does not believe China is in for a hard landing.
- Kathy views open-ended QE in a positive light, believing it is helping to fortify financial markets and avoid a crash.
http://youtu.be/vIZE2v_2wC0
3 Candlestick Patterns For Market Reversals
3 Candlestick Patterns For Market Reversals - Morning Doji Star, Evening Doji Star, Island Reversal Patterns
http://youtu.be/8KsV97e1_Kc
When your forex trading risk is really low, reward does not really matter
When your forex trading risk is really low, reward does not really matter
Quote:
Risk a little to make more than a little...
There are times when a forex technical level is important enough to just focus on the risk, and forget about the reward. In other words, if you trade at a key level where risk is only 5 pips, you only have to see the market move 10 pips for a 2:1 reward to risk ratio. If you make 20 pips, you have a 4:1 reward to risk ratio. That is not a lot of movement in a forex market that is moving.
So, when risk is really low, reward does not really matter.
http://youtu.be/KFHHZl7IJFc
1 Attachment(s)
Trading The Martingale and Anti Martingale Strategies
In today's lesson we are going to look at the two categories that most position sizing strategies fall into which are known as martingale strategies and anti martingale strategies.
Attachment 27343
A position sizing strategy which incorporates the martingale technique is basically any strategy which increases the trade size as a trade moves against the trader or after a losing trade. On the flip side a position sizing strategy which incorporates the anti martingale technique is basically any strategy which increases the trade size as the trade moves in the traders favor or after a winning trade.
The most basic martingale strategy is one in which the trader trades a set position size at the beginning of his trading strategy and then double's the size of his trades after each unprofitable trade, returning back to the original position size only after a profitable trade. Using this strategy no matter how large the string of losing trades a trader faces, on the next winning trade they will make up all their losses plus a profit equal to the profit on their original trade size.
As an example lets say that a trader is using a strategy on the full size EUR/USD Forex contract that takes profits and losses both at the 200 point level (I like using the EUR/USD Forex contract because it has a fixed point value of $1 per contract for mini forex contracts and $10 per contract for full sized contracts but the example is the same for any instrument)
The trader starts with $100,000 in his account and decides that his starting position size will be 3 contracts (300,000) and that he will use the basic martingale strategy to place his trades. Using the below 10 trades here is how it would work.
As you can see from the example although the trader was down significantly going into the 10th trade, as the 10th trade was profitable he made up all the his losses plus a brought the account profitable by the equity high of the account plus original profit target of $6000.
At first glance the above method can seem very sound and people often point to their perception that the chances of having a winning trade increase after a string of loosing trades. Mathematically however the large majority of strategies work like flipping a coin, in that the chances of having a profitable trade on the next trade is completely independent of how many profitable or unprofitable trades one has leading up to that trade. As when flipping a coin no matter how many times you flip heads the chances of flipping tails on the next flip of the coin are still 50/50.
The second problem with this method is that it requires an unlimited amount of money to ensure success. Looking at our trade example again but replacing the last trade with another loosing trade instead of a winner, you can see that the trader is now in a position where, at the normal $1000 per contract margin level required, he does not have enough money in his account to put up the necessary margin which is required to initiate the next 48 contract position
So while the pure martingale strategy and variations of it can produce successful results for extended periods of time, as I hope the above shows, odds are that it will eventually end up in blowing ones account completely.
With this in mind the large majority of successful traders that I have seen follow anti martingale strategies which increase size when trades are profitable, never when unprofitable
http://youtu.be/vAbxR8W6cRA
MetaTrader 4 Android February 2015
MetaTrader 4 for Android devices updated: New Design, Financial News and System Log. Mobile Trading should be convenient.
http://youtu.be/zATg9PvhGUI
1 Attachment(s)
Fundamental Analysis Vs. Technical Analysis in Forex
Fundamental Analysis Vs. Technical Analysis in Forex
Attachment 29414
Traders analyze any financial market including the forex market in one of 3 ways:
1. Through Fundamental Analysis
2. Through Technical Analysis
3. Through a Combination of fundamental and technical analysis
While which method a trader chooses is ultimately up to them and their trading personality, it is my opinion that a trader who at least has an understanding of both technical and fundamental analysis is in a better overall position to trade profitably, than someone who focuses on only one school of thought.
To help understand this lets say that I am a trader who studies technical analysis and believes that at least in the short term, which is the time frame that I trade on, that technicals are all that matter. Next lets say that I am looking at a chart of the EUR/USD at 8:20 AM on the first Friday of the month, and my technicals are telling me that the trade is a good buy.
If I focused purely on technical analysis then I would probably enter that position not knowing that at 8:30 AM I may be in for a surprise that I was not expecting. As those of you who have been through module 8 of my basics of trading course know, at 8:30 AM on the first Friday of the month Non Farm Payrolls (NFP's) are released, which historically has been one of the most market moving fundamental releases in the forex market.
While I am not saying that a trader who trades on technicals should not take a trade that looks good to them from a technical standpoint because of weak fundamentals, what I think this shows is that technical traders who at least have an understanding of fundamentals have the ability to decide whether or not they should factor in a specific piece of fundamental information or no. In my opinion this gives them a big leg up on technical traders who dismiss fundamentals altogether.
Now lets say that I am a trader who trades a carry trade strategy which trades based off of a model I built to forecast interest rates based on fundamental news releases. Next lets say that my model generates a buy signal at 1.4700 which I have included on the chart on your screen. Would my trading not be better served if I at least knew that there was a major head and shoulders top in place, so technically the market is very weak here?
As with our technical analysis example what I am not saying is that a trader who trades on fundamentals should not take a trade that they feel is good from a fundamental standpoint when the market is weak from a technical standpoint. What I am saying however is that fundamental traders who at least have a basic understanding of technical analysis have the ability to decide this for themselves. In my opinion this gives them a big leg up on fundamental traders who dismiss technicals altogether.
As you have probably realized if you have been following my courses, they are designed to give traders a knowledge of both fundamental and technical analysis because I believe a knowledge of both puts traders in the best position to learn to trade profitably. I also believe that you can't really make a decision if you are going to trade based mainly off of technicals, fundamentals, or a combination of the two unless you have a sound understanding of the basics of both fundamental and technical analysis.
http://youtu.be/UGWYGDB_Zjk
How to Use Your iPad as a Laptop Second Monitor for Forex Trading
Quote:
This video will show you a great way to get a laptop second monitor for your Forex trading, by using something you probably have anyway...an iPad.
Just by buying a simple iOS app for about $15, you can turn your iPad into an external monitor and run any Mac or PC application on the second screen.
This can help reduce what you travel with, while giving you some extra screen real estate, which is helpful for doing work, trading multiple markets and more.
How to Install Custom Indicators on MT4 - Metatrader 4 Tutorial
How to Install Custom Indicators on MT4 - Metatrader 4 Tutorial
Metatrader changed a few things in their system and now it is harder to install custom indicators on your charts.
But not to fear, this video will show you the new method and it is just as easy. You just have to know where to install the indicators.
This video will show you how to install custom indicators in MetaTrader and what to do if you do not see your new indicators right away. It will also teach you the difference between .ex4 and .mq4 files and how to install both.
This tutorial was done on a Mac with VMWare Fusion running Windows 7.
1 Attachment(s)
ADX - Average Directional Index
ADX - Average Directional Index
Attachment 36014
This lesson describes the ADX with the DI+ and DI- Directional Indicators, and also shows how they are commonly use.
http://youtu.be/96ZRTlgGduI
The ADX is a momentum indicator used to determine the strength of a price trend; it is derived from the DMI –Directional Movement Index which has two indicators
- +DI- Positive Directional indicator
- –DI - Negative Directional Indicator
ADX is calculated by subtracting these two values and applying a smoothing function, example a function of ten to come up with a 10 period ADX.
ADX
- The ADX is not a directional indicator but a measure of the strength of the trend. The ADX has a scale of Zero -100.
- The higher the ADX value the stronger the trend.
- ADX value below 20 indicates that the market is not trending but moving in a range.
- ADX value above 20 confirms a buy or sell signal and indicates a new trend is emerging.
- ADX value above 30 signifies a strong trending market.
- When ADX value turns down from above 30, it signifies that the current trend is losing momentum.
ADX indicator combined with DMI- Directional Movement Index
Since the ADX alone is a directionless indicator it is combined with the DMI index to determine the direction of the currency pair.
When the ADX is combined with DMI index a trader can determine the direction of the trend and then use the ADX to determine the momentum of the forex trend.
Free products for MT4 with source code!!