Weekly Outlook: 2014, April 27 - May 04

Forex Weekly Outlook Apr 28 – May 2

Currencies drifted sideways in the post Easter week, and now we have a very busy week with top tier events. The all important inflation release from the euro-zone, GDP in the US and the UK, the FOMC meeting, the buildup to to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and other events all promise lots of action Here is an outlook on the market-movers for this week.

The week after Easter provided some interesting developments. This time, US data was quite mixed: durable goods orders climbed nicely, but jobless claims disappointed and new home sales plunged. Will the skies clear in the upcoming week? In the euro-zone, Draghi tried to play down the euro once again, with diminishing success. He might be forced to act soon. One extreme action would be buying gold with printed euros. A central bank that is acting, but in the other way, is the RBNZ: a second rate hike in New Zealand certainly supported the kiwi. Its neighbor, the Aussie, was falling after weak inflation data. The pound remains near 4 year highs.

1. US Pending Home Sales: Monday, 14:00. Signed contracts to purchase existing homes fell 0.8% in February, declining for the eighth straight month, indicating the housing sector goes through a rough patch. Pending home sales fell 0.2% in January. Analysts expected the index to rise 0.1% this time. The cold winter probably played a role in discouraging prospective buyers. Pending home sales are expected to rise by 1.0% this time.
2. UK GDP: Tuesday, 8:30. Britain’s economic recovery weakened slightly in the final quarter of 2013, with a 0.7% growth rate, following 0.8% in the third quarter. The service sector was the main locomotive of GDP growth. Manufacturing grew 0.9%, though construction suffered a 0.3% fall in output. However, wage growth increased less than price inflation, indicating smaller income. However, GDP growth in 2013 was the highest since 2007 with a 1.9% expansion rate. Britain’s estimated GDP for the first quarter of 2014 is expected to be 0.9%.
3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. U.S. consumer confidence edged up in March to its highest in more than six years posting 82.3 points following an upwardly revised 78.3 in February. Economists expected a mild improvement to 78.7. Consumers expect the economy to continue improving with a pick-up in growth in the coming months. However labor market assessment was more pessimistic in March. Consumers also anticipated larger price increases, with expectations for inflation in the coming 12 months. Consumer confidence is expected to edge up further to 82.9.
4. Japan rate decision: Wednesday. The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged in April in line with market forecast, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on at the press conference following the rate statement that the BOJ may decide on additional monetary easing to boost the economy, although Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, did not ask for any additional measures by the BOJ to achieve the goal of an annual 2 % rise in consumer prices by fiscal 2015. Kuroda noted that the economy is in a growth trend but is still needs to attain the inflation goal and beat deflation risks. No change in rates is expected despite the weaker than expected inflation numbers from Tokyo for April.
5. Euro-zone CPI Flash Estimate: Wednesday, 9:00. Annual consumer inflation in the Euro area member states was 0.5%, lower than the 0.7% posted in February and the lowest since 2009. Economists predicted a 0.6% inflation rate. This was the sixth month of low inflation defined by the ECB as the “danger zone” of below 1%. Mario Draghi suggested that the bank will take bold action should the outlook deteriorate. Inflation is expected to gain momentum with a 0.8% reading, in part due to the shift in date of Easter, from March in 2013 to April this year. Inflation below 0.5% could force the ECB to act.
6. US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 12:15. The ADP report of job creation in March edged up to 191,000 from 178,000 posted in February, suggesting that the downside trend in the last few months has ended. Goods-producing sector employment increased by 28,000 jobs in March, but the main gains came from the construction industry which added 20,000 jobs over the month; compared to an average of 16,000 during the prior three months. Manufacturers added 5,000 jobs in March, the same as February. Service-providing employment rose by 164,000 jobs in March, up from the upwardly revised 153,000 in February. ADP early jobs gain report is expected to reach 212,000.
7. Canadian GDP: Wednesday, 12:30. The Canadian economy rebounded in January with a growth rate of 0.5% from a weather-related contraction of 0.5% in December. Production rose by 1.0%, led by a boost in manufacturing, mining, construction, and oil and gas extraction. Services climbed 0.3% with gains in most sectors. According to forecasts, the yearly growth rate should go beyond 2%. The Canadian economy is expected to show a 0.2% expansion rate in February.
8. US Advance GDP: Wednesday, 12:30. The US economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.6% in the last quarter of 2013, despite the government shutdown and the debt ceiling ordeal. The pace of growth weakened from 4.1% in the third quarter but still indicated US gross domestic product increased quite strongly in the last half of 2013, a pace unseen since 2003. A weak first half of the year impeded growth to 1.9% for all of 2013, down from 2.8% in 2012. The fourth-quarter enjoyed healthy gains in consumer spending, personal consumption rose by an annual rate of 3.3%, the strongest pace in three years. The GDP news were good for investors. US stock markets rose after several days of losses. Early estimates of GDP growth forecast a 1.1% rise in the first quarter of 2014 due to the effects of the cold winter.
9. US FOMC Statement: Wednesday, 18:00. In the last FOMC statement released in March Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen raised the possibility of an earlier- than-anticipated increase in interest rates. The Fed is likely to taper bond buys for the fourth time to $45 billion / month, continuing the current policy. After Yellen dropped the forward guidance in her first decision, no other policy changes are likely. The focus could be on how the Fed sees the economy. If it expresses worries about the winter slowdown, the dollar could slide, and if it is upbeat on a spring bounce, the dollar could rise. The data is mixed, so the Fed might adopt a cautious approach. The bigger fireworks will probably wait for June, when the data will be clearer and a press conference accompanies the decision. For the upcoming decision, the GDP release made earlier on the same day could “steal the show”..
10. Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 12:30. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in Washington DC at the Independent Community Bankers of America’s Annual Policy Summit. She may talk about the growth trend in the US economy and may refer to her statement regarding the rate hike expected in 2015. Market volatility is expected.
11. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30.The number of Americans filing initial applications for unemployment benefits jumped by 24,000 last week to 329.000 due to temporary layoffs in the week before Easter. Economists expected a milder rise to 309,000. However the US economy is on a growth trend and the average of applications is declining. A year ago, claims stood at 343,000 indicating this year, employers hold back layoffs and increase hiring. The number of unemployment claims is expected to decline to 317,000.
12. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 14:00. The U.S. manufacturing sector registered a mild pick-up in March compared to February, reaching 53.7. However the climb in production indicates that the U.S. economy is strengthening after the cold winter. Economists expected PMI to increase to 54.2. Overall, surveyed purchasing managers were optimistic regarding current economic conditions reporting a rise in demand. U.S. manufacturing sector is expected to continue its recovery with a reading of 54.3.
13. US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: Friday, 12:30. The US job market continued to progress in March gaining 192,000 jobs after a 197,000 addition in the previous month. Private employment exceeded the pre-recession peak for the first time, indicating a growth trend in the US economy and supporting the Fed’s decision to continue tapering. Economists expected a higher reading of 199,000. Meanwhile, Unemployment rate remains unchanged at 6.7% however, a half-million Americans started looking for work last month, and most of them found jobs. The rise indicates that hiring increased. The US labor market is expected to expand by 211,000 jobs while the unemployment rate is predicted to decline to 6.6%.

Dollar’s Indecision Likely to End with FOMC, NFPs, 1Q GDP

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Bullish

• The specter of a downturn in risk trends grows increasingly corporeal – and the dollar stands ready to take off if it does
• Meanwhile, rate forecasts will be revived this week between economic health updates (1Q GDP and NFPs) and the FOMC

Attachment 6712

FX and capital market traders are anxious for activity. Stability is one thing, but the quiet that currently hangs over the markets carries the hallmarks of extraordinary complacency and an inevitable reversal to the opposite extreme. Given the markets lean and positioning over the years, the more charged scenario would be one where risk aversion and deleveraging unfold. That would be a boon for the greenback as its safe haven status is revived under the stress. But even if we are kept to wait for the return to risk engagement, there will be plenty of the US economic docket to keep the dollar occupied – including a FOMC decision, 1Q GDP release and April NFPs.

Always starting with the fundamental theme with the greatest overall potential over the market, risk trends are the first consideration for trading starting the next week. Already tepid, activity levels this past week fully collapsed with the holiday liquidity drain and never recovered. Now, among mature capital market trends and extremely low volatility and participation levels, we are finding measures so excessive that complacency is no longer an option. Perhaps the starkest measure is that of FX-based volatility. While the equity-based VIX is steady since the start of the month, its currency-sourced counterpart dropped another 20 percent (to 5.73 percent) to a seven year low – and only marginally off a record. Realized – also termed ‘actual’ – volatility is itself at a multi-decade low.

The wait for a rebound in risk trends has been a frustrating one. Bullish or bearish, sentiment can engage the market and offer meaningful trend – rather than the stunted chop we have dealt with. Looking back, there have been a few notable attempts to revive the optimism run, but circumstances of participation, leverage and exposure have consistently seen the move die. This tells us that to engage a lasting market-wide, sentiment-based move; it may have to be a deleveraging of risky exposure.

In the annals of history, the greatest extremes are typically the first to reverse. If that is the case with risk trends, the circumstances for FX activity measures may prove the spark for a more systemic change in attitude. A currency market-based increase in activity would likely favor the dollar – as volatility is associated to concerns of safety – but the most reliable driver for the benchmark would be a risk aversion move that spanned asset classes and investor type. The US docket this week is particularly well suited to get the ball moving.

Under normal circumstances, the expectation of a major release or event that can materially change investment conditions often encourages the trading ranks to sit on their hands. The schedule this week is spread out, but the market is unlikely to hesitate should Wednesday’s releases hit the right key. After earlier releases of US housing data and sentiment survey, the top listings come Wednesday with the release of the release of the first quarter growth (1Q GDP) report at 12:30 GMT and FOMC rate decision at 18:00 GMT.

For fundamental impact, these two indicators offer a clear view of the economic health of the world’s largest economy and the monetary policy assistance it is receiving. Even if they fall short on stirring the broader ‘risk on risk off’ mentality, they will still prove weighty measures for interest rate expectations – the other dominant theme for the dollar. This past week, medium-term Treasury yields have regained lost ground as rate expectations stabilized (though there is also a consideration that Treasuries will rise – and yields fall – as safety demand induces a bid). As we move closer and closer to the first rate hike, its time frame – whether further or nearer – should become clearer. As we see the timing take shape, traders will be more willing to better place the greenback in the ranks of rate forecasts with its major counterparts.

Japanese Yen Might Finally See Breakout on BoJ, FOMC, and NFPs

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bullish

• US Dollar at key risk of break versus JPY ahead of critical event risk
• Two key price levels to watch on the USDJPY exchange rate

Attachment 6713

The Japanese Yen finished higher as a noteworthy pullback in the Nikkei 225 pushed the USD/JPY exchange rate to weekly lows. Yet the true fireworks may come on upcoming Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve rate decisions, while US labor market data may likewise spark big moves in the USDJPY.
Both the BoJ and the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are likely to keep monetary policy unchanged through their upcoming decisions. Yet all eyes will turn towards the Bank of Japan’s statements to gauge the likelihood of future policy changes, and investors will similarly scrutinize FOMC rhetoric for any clues on the timing of future interest rate increases.
Japan’s central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda made it clear that officials do not anticipate the need for further monetary policy easing at the BoJ’s last policy-setting meeting. And indeed it seems unlikely that recent economic data will have shifted the bank’s bias. As such we’ll watch for any reference towards changing economic forecasts—particularly in light of the consumption tax hike put into effect at the beginning of the month.
On the US side of the equation, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to keep its current level of “Taper” intact; it will announce a fresh $10bn reduction in its Quantitative Easing purchases through its April 30 meeting. Investors will focus on whether the policy-setting board clarifies the future of interest rate hikes. Fairly hawkish FOMC projections initially sent US yields sharply higher on its March 19 decision, but interest rates gave back much of their gains on fairly moderate Fed commentary. It will be important to monitor how the Dollar and global equity markets respond to FOMC commentary—particularly ahead of highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls data.

Volatility prices on USD/JPY options have bounced noticeably ahead of the BoJ, FOMC, and NFPs and for good reason—any one of these has the potential to force big Dollar and Yen moves. Our Senior Strategist highlights two critical levels to watch for the USDJPY, and certainly the pickup in economic event risk increases the likelihood of sharp short-term currency moves.

GBP/USD to Eye Fresh Highs as U.K. GDP Highlights Stronger Recovery

Fundamental Forecast for Pound: Bullish

• British Pound Looks for a Lifeline Following Bank of England Minutes
• GBP/USD Stalls Below Key Gann Resistance

Attachment 6714

The GBP/USD may continue to mark fresh highs ahead of the next Bank of England (BoE) meeting on May 8 as the stronger recovery in the U.K. puts increased pressure on the central bank to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

The fundamental developments coming out of the U.K. may continue to heighten the appeal of the British Pound as the region’s 1Q GDP report is expected to show a pickup in economic activity, and BoE Governor Mark Carney may adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy as the outlook for growth and inflation improves.

Despite concerns surrounding the current account deficit, it seems as though the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will do little to halt the appreciation in the sterling as positive real wage growth paired with rising home prices renews the threat for inflation, and the central bank may continue to look for a higher exchange rate as it helps to achieve price stability. At the same time, the BoE may have little choice but to take further steps to cool the housing market as the underlying momentum in U.K. home prices raises the risk for an asset-bubble, and a further shift in the policy outlook should continue to paint a bullish outlook for the GBP/USD as the Federal Reserve remains reluctant to move away from its zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).
As a result, the GBP/USD should continue to carve a series of higher highs & higher lows in 2014, and we will retain our approach in looking for opportunities to ‘buy dips’ in the pair as interest rate expectations improve. In turn, it seems as though it will only be a matter of time before the GBP/USD clears the 1.6850-60 region, the 78.6% Fibonacci expansion from the February advance, and we may see the 1.7000 handle come on our radar as the pound-dollar carves a higher low in April.

Gold Rally At Risk Ahead of Key US Event Risk- Bearish Sub $1327

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

• Gold Price at Risk Near-Term on a Return of USDollar Strength?
• Rising US Yields Push Gold Price towards April Low, $1277 Tipping Point

Attachment 6715

Gold prices are firmer on the week with the precious metal advancing 0.52% to trade at $1300 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The advance comes on the back of a sell-off in broader risk assets this week with all three major US stock indices closing markedly lower on the session. Ongoing geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia and continued weakness in the greenback have continued to offer support for the battered commodity which came off lows not seen since early February this week.

Looking ahead to next week, all eyes will be fixated on the US economic docket with the FOMC policy decision, advanced 1Q GDP and Non-Farm Payrolls on tap. The central bank is widely expected to taper QE operations by another $10Billion bringing the pace of asset purchases to $45Billion a month ($25Billion in Treasury purchases / $20Billion in MBS purchases). While no change is expected to forward guidance, traders will be looking to the accompanying policy statement for clues as to the Fed’s outlook on interest rates. 1Q GDP is released on Wednesday with consensus estimates calling for an annualized print of 1.2% q/q, down from 2.6% in 4Q as extreme weather in the Northeast in the early part of the year weighed on medium-term growth prospects. The April employment report rounds out the week with estimates calling for a print of 215K jobs, bringing the headline unemployment rate to 6.6% from 6.7%.

From a technical standpoint, the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside while below key resistance at $1327/34. This level is defined by the March opening range low, the 23.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the advance off the December 31st low and a longer-dated trendline resistance dating back to the 2012 high. Interim resistance stands at $1300/07 where the 200-day moving average, the 50% & 61.8% retracements and trendline resistance dating back to the March highs come into focus. Critical support rests at $1260/70 were barrage of Fibonacci extensions, retracements and pivots are clustered and a break/close below this thresholds risks substantial losses for the yellow metal targeting last year’s lows at $1178/80

Bottom line: Key interim resistance remains at $1327/34 and we continue to favor selling rallies with only a breach/close above this threshold invalidating the broader downside bias. The biggest risk to our outlook remains a broader risk sell-off which could trigger haven flows into the perceived safety of bullion.

Nikkei forecast for the week of April 28, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Nikkei did very little over the course of the week, as we continue to hang about the ¥14,500 level. The market should be relatively well supported from the previous week’s gains though, so are looking for move above the ¥15,000 level in order to start buying. At that point time we would be convinced of the validity of the continued uptrend, inserting four ¥16,400 or so. Selling is not an option at this point, as we feel that there are far too many supportive areas between here and ¥13,000 to be bothered doing so.

http://youtu.be/bzm1gUyJv2I

Attachment 6716

DAX forecast for the week of April 28, 2014, Technical Analysis

The DAX attempted to rally during the week, but found too much in the way of resistance at the 9700 level to continue. With this, we pulled back enough to form a shooting star, which of course is a bearish sign. This sign isn’t one we are willing to take as a selling opportunity, but rather a chance to buy at lower levels in the meantime. We are looking for supportive candles below, and then will be willing to get long at that point as this market has been trending higher for some time now.

http://youtu.be/xjTZRVBiuQM


Attachment 6717

NASDAQ forecast for the week of April 28, 2014, Technical Analysis

The NASDAQ as you can see tried to rally during the course of the week, but found far too much in the way of resistance just below the 4200 level to continue. With that, the market pullback to form a shooting star now we find ourselves with a very sign just above a significant bottom in the market. With this, we feel that the next couple of weeks could be vital to the NASDAQ, and show where the next moves heading towards.

If the NASDAQ does in fact break down from here and below the hammer from the previous week, we feel this market could come undone at that point. Granted, it has been a nice there step type of action higher, but we have to recognize that we have broken down below a trend line that is positive, and have retested it from the bottom. We failed, and as a result the NASDAQ suddenly looks like it could be a bit vulnerable.

On that move, we believe that the market will probably look for 3600 at first, but possibly 3300 as well. With that, we feel that the move could be fairly sudden though, and it really comes down to whether or not we get the right headline to push the market over the cliff so to speak. On the other hand, if we break the top of the shooting star which is roughly 4200, that would be an extraordinarily bullish sign, and have the market going much higher. A break above the 4350 level of course would be a fresh, new high, and the markets would of course take off to the upside at that point in time.

We don’t necessarily think the markets ready to break down quite yet, but we have to bring that to your attention as it is a potentially market moving event. The next candle or two would be very important, and as a result we will be paying quite a bit of attention to this market. On another note, if the NASDAQ moves drastically, it will be a sign of risk appetite. That could send all stock markets in the same direction.

http://youtu.be/2R_ItmIhSjE


Attachment 6718

MIB forecast for the week of April 28, 2014, Technical Analysis

The MIB as you can see initially tried to rally during the week, but found the 22,000 level to be far too resistive. Because of this, the market pullback to form a shooting star, and it appears that we will be looking to find support below. With that, the market is still in a very strong uptrend though, so we are not interested in selling this market under any circumstances. We are simply going to wait on the sidelines for a supportive candle so that we can start buying again.

http://youtu.be/BDjilJG42AU


Attachment 6719

CAC forecast for the week of April 28, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Parisian index tried to rally during the week, but as you can see found enough resistance of €4500 level to turn things back around. Unfortunately, we ended up forming a shooting star, instead of breaking through like we would have preferred. Nonetheless, the market of course still look bullish overall but the fact that we formed a shooting star does suggest to us that possibly we may be getting ready to pull back a bit. At the end of the day, we believe that this pullback may be one of those times where the bullish longer-term traders may be a lot of pick out a bit more in the way of a position size as it certainly should concede value down in this general area.

Currently, we have been in an uptrend the channel and there is nothing on this chart to suggest that the channel is done. With that, we believe that a pullback all the way down to the 4350 level is possible, and as a result we think that there will certainly be some value in that area. On top of the idea of the channel is the fact that the area has offered support and resistance over the last several months, so quite frankly appears that there is quite a bit of interest in general.

The market looks as if it’s ready to continue going higher after a little bit of a pullback in if you look at the channel itself, it just seems that we been shopping around with the general upward bias. Because of this, we believe that the CAC is a longer-term buy-and-hold type of situation, not something you should be looking for quick returns in. That’s okay, because quite frankly that is a much healthier sign then suddenly gains. The shows that people were methodically stepping back into the marketplace, and that they believe in the long-term validity of the uptrend that we are presently in. With all that, there is absolutely no reason that we can see on this chart to consider selling this market.


http://youtu.be/dn37NF-Eaa4


Attachment 6720

IBEX forecast for the week of April 28, 2014, Technical Analysis

The IBEX tried to rally during the week, but as you can see found enough trouble just above the €10,500 level to pull things back down and form a shooting star. The shooting star suggests that the market could pull back from here overall, and as a result we are on the sidelines. We are actually looking for support somewhere near the €10,000 level, and if we get the right supportive candle, we are more than willing to buy this market. We would also do the same if we break the top of the shooting star from this past week as it would show a significant break up momentum.

http://youtu.be/X9KCzCelOXY

Attachment 6721

EUR/USD forecast for the week of April 28, 2014, Technical Analysis

For the second week in a row, the EUR/USD pair fell, but bounced enough to form a small hammer. With that being the case, we believe that this market will continue to grind sideways, and as a result this market looks as if it is not ready to do anything at the moment. Because of this, we are not interested in a longer-term trade in the EUR/USD pair, but do recognize that there is a potential uptrend line coming soon, so buying is possible, but not at this moment in time.


http://youtu.be/N-kuPgLZ408


Attachment 6722

NZD/USD forecast for the week of April 28, 2014, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, but eventually changed very little. The market looks as if it’s still well supported at the 0.85 handle, and as a result we feel that this market will more than likely find buyers in the general vicinity. Going forward, we fully anticipate that this market will try to get to the 0.90 handle, and we do not have the right supportive candle to get involved. However, if we break down below the 0.85 handle, we think this market will more than likely head to the 0.83 level.

http://youtu.be/e6g-lB5bGlE


Attachment 6723

USD/CAD forecast for the week of April 28, 2014, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair continue to go higher during the week, but as you can see didn’t have much of a range. At this moment time, we believe that this market will continue to the 1.13 level, but it may take it’s time to get there. With that being the case, we feel that this market can only be bought, and as far as selling is concerned it’s almost impossible based upon the supportive hammer from two weeks ago. If we can get above the 1.13 level, we feel that the market goes to the 1.15 over time.


http://youtu.be/qctq0FuA8o8

Attachment 6724

USD/JPY forecast for the week of April 28, 2014, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair fell during the course of the week, but as you can see had a very small trading range. Because of this, we feel that this market is still stuck in the consolidation area, and as a result we really don’t have much of an opinion at the moment. However, you can see that there is an uptrend line that we are approaching, therefore we are looking for a supportive candle in order to start buying as we think the market will continue to try and reach the 103 level, followed by the 105 level given enough time. Selling is not an option.

http://youtu.be/kn47wjdICEM


Attachment 6725

Forex - Weekly outlook: April 28 - May 2

The dollar ended the week lower against the safe haven yen and Swiss franc on Friday as fresh tensions over hostilities in eastern Ukraine underpinned safe haven demand.

USD/JPY touched one-week lows of 101.96 on Friday before settling at 102.18, ending the week down 0.48%. USD/CHF ended Friday’s session at 0.8814 after falling to lows of 0.8803 earlier and ended the week down 0.42%.

Concerns over the conflict between Russian and Ukraine escalated on Friday after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Washington was ready to step up sanctions on Russia. The West is accusing Russia of leading a separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine after it annexed Crimea last month.

The yen held gains despite data on Friday showing that Japanese inflation remained unchanged for a third successive month in April. The weak data fuelled expectations that the Bank of Japan will implement a fresh round of monetary stimulus this year, which would weigh on the yen.

Elsewhere, the euro was flat against the dollar on Friday, with EUR/USD settling at 1.3833. For the week, the pair rose 0.30%.

The euro’s gains were held in check after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated warnings on Thursday that the strong euro could trigger further monetary easing. He also said the ECB could launch a "broad-based" asset purchase program if the medium-term inflation outlook deteriorated.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in April, adding to signs that the economy is improving.

The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index came in at 84.1 this month, up from 80 in March and the preliminary reading of 82.6. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 83.0.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. jobs report for April and the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Wednesday preliminary April inflation report for the euro zone will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 28

• Japan is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales.

Tuesday, April 29

• Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a holiday.
• New Zealand is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
• In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation and a report by market research group Gfk on consumer climate, while Spain is to release data on the unemployment rate.
• The U.K. is to release preliminary data on first quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.
• The U.S. is to a report compiled by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.
• Later Tuesday, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak; his comments will be closely watched.

Wednesday, April 30

• New Zealand is to release data on building consents and business confidence.
• Japan is to publish data on average cash earnings and industrial production. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.
• In the euro zone, Germany is to publish reports on retail sales and unemployment change. Spain is to release preliminary data on first quarter growth. The wider euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation.
• Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.
• Canada is to publish the monthly report on GDP growth.
• The U.S. is to release preliminary data on first quarter GDP, as well as the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, May 1

• Markets in China, the euro zone and Switzerland will remain closed for the Labor Day holiday.
• China is to release official data on manufacturing activity.
• The U.K. is also to produce a report on manufacturing activity, in addition to data on net lending.
• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. At the same time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.
• Later Thursday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release a report on manufacturing activity.

Friday, May 2

• Markets in China are to remain closed for the Labor Day holiday. Japan is to publish data on household spending and Australia is to release data on producer price inflation.
• The euro zone is to produce data on the unemployment rate, while Spain and Italy are to release reports on manufacturing activity.
• Switzerland is to publish its SVME purchasing managers’ index, while the U.K. is to release data on construction sector activity.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, and a separate report on factory orders.

Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: April 28 - May 2

The New Zealand regained ground against its U.S. counterpart on Friday but held near a three-week low struck in the previous session as traders continued to weigh uncertainty surrounding developments in Ukraine.

NZD/USD fell to 0.8547 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since April 4, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8580 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.18% for the day but still 0.11% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8531, the low from April 4 and resistance at 0.8636, the high from April 24.

Concerns over the conflict between Russian and Ukraine escalated on Friday after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Washington was ready to step up economic sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut its rating on Russia on Friday, citing the potential for “additional significant outflows” of capital due to escalating hostilities with Ukraine.

The West is accusing Russia of leading a separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine after it annexed Crimea last month.

Market players also continued to monitor U.S. data for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

Data on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in April, adding to signs that the economy is improving.

The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index came in at 84.1 this month, up from 80 in March and the preliminary reading of 82.6. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 83.0.

Elsewhere, in New Zealand, the Reserve Bank raised interest rates by 0.25% earlier in the week and increased its growth estimate for the quarter ending in March.

In a widely expected move, the RBNZ raised its benchmark interest rate to 3.00% from 2.75%.

The central bank also said that gross domestic product is estimated to have grown 3.5% in the year to March, compared to the previous month's estimate of 3.3%.

Commenting on the decision, RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said the strong kiwi is helping to contain inflation, though current levels may not be sustainable.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators increased their bullish bets on the New Zealand dollar in the week ending April 22.

Net longs totaled 20,175 contracts as of last week, compared to net longs of 18,213 contracts in the previous week.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve amid speculation the central bank is likely to continue to scale back its stimulus program.

The U.S. will also release the monthly non-farm payrolls report for April later in the week as well as a preliminary estimate on first quarter economic growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 28

• The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales.

Tuesday, April 29

• New Zealand is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
• The U.S. is to a report compiled by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, April 30

• New Zealand is to release data on building consents and business confidence.
• The U.S. is to release preliminary data on first quarter GDP, as well as the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, May 1

• China is to release official data on manufacturing activity. The Asian nation is New Zealand’s second-biggest trade partner.
• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. At the same time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.
• Later Thursday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release a report on manufacturing activity.

Friday, May 2

• The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, and a separate report on factory orders.

Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: April 28 - May 2

The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session at a three-week low against its U.S. counterpart, as heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine dampened demand for riskier assets.

AUD/USD fell to 0.9252 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since April 4, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9269 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.06% for the day but 0.68% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9230, the low from April 4 and resistance at 0.9301, the high from April 24.

Concerns over the conflict between Russian and Ukraine escalated on Friday after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Washington was ready to step up economic sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut its rating on Russia on Friday, citing the potential for “additional significant outflows” of capital due to escalating hostilities with Ukraine.

The West is accusing Russia of leading a separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine after it annexed Crimea last month.

Market players also continued to monitor U.S. data for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

Data on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in April, adding to signs that the economy is improving.

The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index came in at 84.1 this month, up from 80 in March and the preliminary reading of 82.6. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 83.0.

Elsewhere, in Australia, data released earlier in the week showed that consumer price inflation in Australia rose 0.6% in the first quarter, below expectations for a 0.8% increase, after a 0.8% rise in the three months to December.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators increased their bullish bets on the Australian dollar in the week ending April 22.

Net longs totaled 16,370 contracts, compared to net longs of 8,097 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve amid speculation the central bank is likely to continue to scale back its stimulus program.

The U.S. will also release the monthly non-farm payrolls report for April later in the week as well as a preliminary estimate on first quarter economic growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 28

• The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales.

Tuesday, April 29

• The U.S. is to a report compiled by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, April 30

• The U.S. is to release preliminary data on first quarter GDP, as well as the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, May 1

• China is to release official data on manufacturing activity. The Asian nation is Australia’s biggest trade partner.
• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. At the same time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.
• Later Thursday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release a report on manufacturing activity

Friday, May 2

• Australia is to release data on producer price inflation.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, and a separate report on factory orders.

Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: April 28 - May 2

The U.S. dollar pushed higher against the Canadian dollar on Friday as renewed concerns over hostilities between Russia and Ukraine fuelled risk aversion, dampening demand for the Canadian dollar.

USD/CAD ended Friday’s session at 1.1038, up modestly from Thursday’s close of 1.1019. For the week, the pair eked out a gain of 0.17% in rangebound trade.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.0999, the low of April 22 and resistance at 1.1075.

Concerns over the conflict between Russian and Ukraine escalated on Friday after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Washington was ready to step up economic sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut its rating on Russia on Friday, citing the potential for “additional significant outflows” of capital due to escalating hostilities with Ukraine.

The West is accusing Russia of leading a separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine after it annexed Crimea last month.

The pair traded in a relatively narrow range all week, with the greenback supported by indications that the U.S. economy is recovering. The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is also known, remained softer as the Bank of Canada’s dovish stance weighed.

In a speech on Thursday, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz said interest rates will stay low for longer, while inflation will remain below the central bank’s 2% target for at least another two years.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in April, adding to signs that the economy is improving.

The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index came in at 84.1 this month, up from 80 in March and the preliminary reading of 82.6. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 83.0.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. jobs report for April and the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Wednesday’s Canadian data on economic growth will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 28

• The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales.

Tuesday, April 29

• The U.S. is to a report compiled by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.
• Later Tuesday, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak; his comments will be closely watched.

Wednesday, April 30

• Canada is to publish the monthly report on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.
• The U.S. is to release preliminary data on first quarter GDP, as well as the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.
• Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, May 1

• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. At the same time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched. Later Thursday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release a report on manufacturing activity.

Friday, May 2

• The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, and a separate report on factory orders.

Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: April 28 - May 2

The dollar ended the weak lower against the firmer Swiss franc on Friday as escalating tensions over the crisis in eastern Ukraine underpinned demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

USD/CHF ended Friday’s session at 0.8814 after falling to one-week lows of 0.8803 earlier and ended the week down 0.42%.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.8775 and resistance at 0.8855, Thursday’s high.

Concerns over the conflict between Russian and Ukraine escalated on Friday after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Washington was ready to step up economic sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut its rating on Russia on Friday, citing the potential for “additional significant outflows” of capital due to escalating hostilities with Ukraine.

The West is accusing Russia of leading a separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine after it annexed Crimea last month.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in April, adding to signs that the economy is improving.

The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index came in at 84.1 this month, up from 80 in March and the preliminary reading of 82.6. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 83.0.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. jobs report for April and the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 28

• The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales.

Tuesday, April 29

• The U.S. is to a report compiled by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, April 30

• Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.
• The U.S. is to release preliminary data on first quarter GDP, as well as the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, May 1

• Markets in Switzerland are to remain closed for the Labor Day holiday.
• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. At the same time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched. Later Thursday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release a report on manufacturing activity.

Friday, May 2

• Switzerland is to publish its SVME purchasing managers’ index.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, and a separate report on factory orders.

Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: April 28 - May 2

The euro was little changed against the dollar on Friday as concerns over heightened tensions in eastern Ukraine and the possibility of fresh stimulus measures from the European Central Bank weighed.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3833 after touching session highs of 1.3848. For the week, the pair gained 0.30%.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.3790, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.3863, the high of April 17.

Concerns over the conflict between Russian and Ukraine escalated on Friday after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Washington was ready to step up economic sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut its rating on Russia on Friday, citing the potential for “additional significant outflows” of capital due to escalating hostilities with Ukraine.

The West is accusing Russia of leading a separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine after it annexed Crimea last month.

The euro’s gains were held in check after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated warnings on Thursday that further gains in the euro could trigger additional monetary easing. He also said the ECB could launch a "broad-based" asset purchase program if the medium-term inflation outlook deteriorated.

Earlier in the week, data showed that the recovery in the euro zone private sector continued this month, but pointed to a divergence between Germany and France.

The recovery in Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy accelerated, with activity in both the manufacturing and service sector strengthening, but growth in the French private sector lost momentum.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in April, adding to indications that the economy is improving.

The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index came in at 84.1 this month, up from 80 in March and the preliminary reading of 82.6. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 83.0.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. jobs report for April and the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Wednesday's preliminary April inflation report for the euro zone will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 28

• The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales.

Tuesday, April 29

• In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation and a report by market research group Gfk on consumer climate, while Spain is to release data on the unemployment rate.
• The U.S. is to a report compiled by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, April 30

• In the euro zone, Germany is to publish reports on retail sales and unemployment change. Spain is to release preliminary data on first quarter growth. The wider euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation.
• The U.S. is to release preliminary data on first quarter GDP, as well as the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, May 1

• Markets in Germany, France and Italy will remain closed for the Labor Day holiday.
• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. At the same time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.
• Later Thursday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release a report on manufacturing activity.

Friday, May 2

• The euro zone is to produce data on the unemployment rate, while Spain and Italy are to release reports on manufacturing activity.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, and a separate report on factory orders.

As a professional trader, we have to keep our patient in this kind of situation. Trading with ForexChief can minimize your risk and help you to get maximum profit. This is a common scenario for every business losing money and gaining. Sometimes it happened that you are thinking that you are going to gain in your business but ultimately you will get the loss. Also, it might happen that you are about to get a loss but certainly you make a profit. Their account types has "cent" accounts cent-MT4.DirectFX and cent-MT4.Classic+, whose balance exceeds that of standard accounts hundredfold.