Weekly Outlook: 2014, April 13 - 20

AUD/USD forecast for Monday

During Friday’s trading session AUD/USD traded within the range of 0.9364-0.9426 and closed at 0.9398.

Fundamental view

Retail sales in the United States probably increased 0.8% in March on a monthly basis, according to the median forecast by experts. In February sales rose 0.3%. The report on retail sales reflects the dollar value of merchandise sold within the retail trade by taking a sampling of companies, operating in the sector of selling physical end products to consumers. The retail sales report encompasses both fixed point-of-sale businesses and non-store retailers, such as mail catalogs and vending machines. US Census Bureau, which is a part of the Department of Commerce surveys about 5 000 companies of all sizes, from huge retailers such as Wal-Mart to independent small family firms.

US core retail sales (retail sales ex autos) probably rose 0.5% in March compared to a month ago, following a 0.3% increase in February. This indicator removes large ticket prices and historical seasonality of automobile sales.

The retail sales index is considered as a coincident indicator, thus, it reflects the current state of the economy. It is also considered a pre-inflationary indicator, which investors can use in order to reassess the probability of an interest rate hike or cut by the Federal Reserve Bank. In addition, this indicator provides key information regarding consumer spending trends. Consumer expenditures, on the other hand, account for almost two-thirds of nation’s total Gross Domestic Product. Therefore, a larger than expected increase in sales would heighten the appeal of US dollar. The official report is due out at 12:30 GMT on Monday.

Because of your time adaptability, on certain days you can submit a few hours taking a gander at the charts. Be that as it may, on days when your timetable tops off, you can just stand to look at the charts for a few minutes each time. You like to differ your trading style as indicated by the time you have. At the point when time licenses, you prefer to go through hours taking a gander at the charts and scalp, taking a couple of pips each time. At the point when time is a factor, you prefer to pick the best exchange arrangement for that day.