Weekly Outlook: 2014, April 6 - 13

Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2014

Gold lost momentum this month after Janet Yellen took the reins at the Federal Reserve and began to talk about interest rate increases. Gold ended at 1284.50 down for the month after its high of 1392.50 hit on geopolitical tensions. Gold is slowly recovering from its lowest price in some years. By December last, gold had dropped below 1,200 but three months in to the New Year and it has recovered slightly to 1,312.

In 2013 consumers generated exceptional levels of demand for gold, with prices somewhat dependent on supply and demand like any commodity. However, precious metals are more complex and generally speaking no one event is likely to affect the price. The Crimean crisis and the threat of war did contribute to buying pressure which has eased towards the end of March with prices coming back significantly. Conversely, gold demand has been relatively bullish during the first three months of 2014 with a few flat patches thrown in. Investors have been a mix of local and international with a reasonably equal split.

Highest: 1392.50

Lowest: 1283.00

Difference: 109.50

Average: 1336.23

Change %: -4.02

Gold steadied on Wednesday after two days of losses but the precious metal remained near its lowest in seven weeks as strong U.S. factory data boosted optimism about economic growth, diminishing bullion’s safe-haven appeal. Physical demand from top consumer China rose slightly, with local prices trading at a premium to spot London prices for the first time since early March.

Though some in the market believe gold prices could head lower due to stronger equities, others say emerging physical demand and geopolitical tension in Ukraine could support prices.

Central Bank – Fed Reserve
Date of next meeting: April 30, 2014
Current Rate: 0.00% – 0.25%

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ECB Sets Table for Lower Euro Prices – Here’s How

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Bearish

• The Euro saw its highs early in the week but was generally weaker into the ECB rate decision.
• The ECB rate decision carried a heavy dovish connotation, leading to bearish opportunities in several EUR-crosses.

Attachment 6386

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) patience with the region’s lackluster recovery may be running out, if one is to believe the rhetoric deployed by President Mario Draghi at the April press conference. Although the ECB held its main refinancing rate on hold at 0.25%, a record low, it was clear that the downturn in economic data over the past several weeks, highlighted by the headline March CPI figure coming in at +0.5% y/y, a four-plus year low, and far beneath the ECB’s medium target of +2%.

There were several tweaks in ECB President Mario Draghi’s tone on Thursday that suggested a more dovish consensus is forming among the Governing Council Members. It was made clear that the council voted unanimously to explore the use of unconventional monetary policy measures, even as President Draghi noted that all the conventional tools hadn’t yet been deployed. Negative interest rates and a round of the ECB’s own version of quantitative easing (QE) was discussed.
The implication that the ECB stands ready to act in the face of a deflating price environment and soft economic horizon inherently suggests an air of credibility to the idea that the ECB could implement non-standard accommodative policy measures. In meetings past, any such commentary that implied the desire for a weaker Euro or hope for continued improvement in growth was met with skepticism by the market; the Euro had developed the reputation for bouncing back after the past several meetings, including the November rate cut (an important low for EURUSD formed that day).

Now that it’s been made clear by the ECB that it recognizes jawboning is losing gravitas – threats of action but no such specific action (see: the ECB’s success with bringing down PIIGS sovereign bond yields without having to operate within the scope of the OMT, not even once) – the path forward will require more explicit details of what measures the ECB might take going forward.

In recent weeks, several policymakers have expressed their displeasure with the elevated Euro exchange rate, and it’s of little surprise that a threat of implementing negative deposit rates would be utilized in order to stem speculative inflows into the currency. The other threat, a full blown QE program, saw its first trial balloon float by on Friday, when German media outlet FAZ reported that the ECB had modeled a €1 trillion QE program, with results seeing anywhere from a +0.2% to +0.8% increase in inflation.

For now the table is set for the Euro to fall but several things will need to develop in the coming weeks and months in order for weakness to flourish – and that’s because there is a trade cushion supporting a higher Euro exchange rate. First, as noted by President Draghi, the stress tests (AQR: asset quality review) have resulted in curbed risk taking by Euro-Zone banks; and to avoid creating a panic about the system before the tests in November, the ECB will try to avoid another liquidity injection.
Accordingly, the economic data picture must remain soft for the ECB’s dovish threats to carry any weight insofar as the threat of non-standard policy measures doesn’t seem legitimate in the face of improving growth prospects and elevated price pressures. Neither of those conditions exist presently (Citi Economic Surprise Index hit a fresh yearly low at -9.0 on Thursday, and was at -8.3 at Friday’s close; both headline CPI and PPI readings are at their lowest levels in over four years). With several EUR-crosses showing technical patterns that would indicate lower Euro prices, continued weakness in economic data will be the only fuel needed to weigh down the once-resilient currency.

US Dollar’s Next Run Requires a Much Stronger Push

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Neutral

• Though the S&P 500 and yen crosses retreated Friday, it too early to call a full-fledge risk aversion move
• NFPs keep the market’s time frame for the first Fed hike on track, stimulus expectations for others may offer more support

Attachment 6387

The US Dollar is a favored safe haven currency. That is a good role to play given the slide in US equities and other ‘risk’ benchmarks to close this past week. Furthermore, the market suspects the Fed is committed to deescalate its extraordinary QE3 program which sets a definable timeframe for the return to rate hikes. Both of these major themes seem to be moving in the greenback’s favor. Yet, to break months of trend and complacency, a greater level of conviction is needed than a mere bias. And, that is what could hold the dollar back from breaking below 1.3600 on EURUSD, 1.6500 with GBPUSD and generally developing a more substantial trend.

Starting – as always – with the aspect that carries the most market-moving potential, risk trends are without doubt the dollar’s most intense sponsor. When a pullback in capital markets escalates into a panic, the liquidity the currency represents (via Treasuries and money markets) drives capital through the exchange rate in waves. Yet, there is a broad intensity gap between a pullback and panic. At what level does fear solicit the world’s most liquid currency for harbor?

While equity markets’ tumble this past Friday (S&P 500 down 1.3 percent and the Nasdaq Composite 2.6 percent) was substantial, it has hardly built the breadth and momentum that normally represents a destructive deleveraging effort. Stock indexes are only modestly below record highs. Volatility measures show little demand for insurance or expectations of adverse market movement - however you want to read it. And, bouts of cross-asset ‘flight to safety’ have proven short-lived and have fallen well short of the intensity that revert the dollar to its primal state.
To generate the kind of anxiety that leverages the greenback’s liquidity over the diversification theme to the euro, the yield focus on the sterling, the carry trade unwind behind the yen; we need either a lasting ‘risk off’ run to infect the broader financial system or a spark that creates a severe market dislocation. From the docket itself, there are few scheduled events that present that boast that kind of influence. On the other hand, such shocks are rarely telegraphed or the progeny of simple data. Keeping track of the level of bearish pressure behind a benchmark – like the S&P 500 – and seeing the dollar revert to ‘safe haven’ against progressively better-balanced counterparts (emerging market currencies, NZD, CAD, AUD, GBP, EUR and JPY - in that order) is the best confirmation.

We are more likely to see progress from the dollar develop around interest rate expectations. While yields the world over are still extremely low and we are still one foot in stimulus programs, the FX market is forward looking. Should the market believe the US is due a rate hike before its counterparts, the rise in market rates and inflow of capital will follow. The US labor statistics for March released this past week reinforce the view already assessed by the market: maintaining the Taper through October or December and then the first FOMC hike by mid-2015. Payrolls were in-line at 192,000, unemployment held at 6.7 percent and the participation rate rose to 63.2 percent.

On the docket for next week, there are a few stand-out releases rate watchers should keep tabs on. The minutes from the FOMC’s March 18-19 meeting (which generated so much market response) can offer further insight as to what thresholds the group is implicitly following and their assumptions. Economic health will be measured by the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey, NFIB Small Business sentiment report and consumer credit statistics. Inflation, meanwhile, will see updates via producer and important price indexes.
And, given that this is a relative assessment; it is always important to assess the strength of the dollar’s largest counterparts. This is a particularly important evaluation against the euro and pound. Given the runaway capital inflow in the Eurozone and elevated rate forecast for the UK, a correction on their part could prove a substantial booster for the greenback.

Gold NFP Rally Likely to be Short Lived- $1327 Key Resistance

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral

• Gold and Silver Face Breakouts On Surprise NFP Print
• Gold Holding on to 1280 for Dear Life

Attachment 6388

Gold prices are firmer on the week with the precious metal rallying 0.5% to trade at $1302 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The move snaps a two week losing streak that saw prices plummet more than 8.2% off the highs and although the rebound may yet have further upside, the magnitude to the rally is likely to remain limited.
The March non-farm payrolls report took center stage on Friday with the data coming in slightly below expectation at 192K with the headline unemployment rate holding steady at 6.7%. Expectations for a strong employment read had been building all week with some estimates calling for a print as high as 270K after a strong upward revision to the February ADP report. The result saw the US dollar give back a portion of the week’s rally with gold breaking out of a tight weekly range on the release.
Despite the miss on NFPs and the headline unemployment rate (which was expected to fall to 6.6%) a sizeable bounce in the labor force saw the participation rate climb to 63.2% from 63.0%, its highest level since July of last year. Similarly upward revisions to the February print also painted an improving picture for the labor markets, albeit slightly weaker than consensus estimates. Still risk assets took no solace with US equity indices selling off sharply into the close of the week.

Looking ahead, traders will be closely eyeing the release of the FOMC minutes form the March policy meeting on Wednesday. With the latest quarterly projections showing a growing number of Fed officials showing a greater willingness to raise interest rates in 2015, investors will be looking for further details on the timing and methods by which the central bank may look to begin the normalizing policy. Gold is unlikely to see significant upside on the back of this week’s reversal as the fundamentals remain broadly unsupportive for the bulls. The two largest risks to our outlook remains if A- the recent sell-off in equities materializes into a larger correction or B- unforeseen geopolitical threats re-emerge.
From a technical standpoint, the broader focus on gold remains weighted to the downside after breaking below key technical barriers last month. Interim resistance is eyed at $1310 with only a breach above the March opening range low at $1327 invalidating our medium-term bias. Key support rests at $1268/70 with a break below the 61.8% retracement of the late December advance at 1260 putting longer-term targets at 1224/26 in view.

USD/JPY Capped By Former Support- Upbeat BoJ Risks Larger Decline

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Neutral

• Japanese Yen Pairs Rally Over-Extended Ahead of BoJ
• USD/JPY at Top of Near Term Channel; Caution Warranted

Attachment 6389

The USDJPY pulled back from a fresh monthly high of 104.11 as the weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report dragged on the dollar, and the pair may face a larger decline in the week ahead should the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continue to scale back its willingness to further expand its asset-purchase program.

Indeed, the BoJ is widely expected to preserve its current policy at the April 8 meeting as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda retains an upbeat tone for the Japanese economy, and the board may continue to endorse a neutral policy stance for the foreseeable future as a growing number of central bank officials see scope to achieve the 2% target for inflation as early as the end of FY 2014. With that said, we may see Governor Kuroda merely reiterate the policy statement from the March 10 interest rate decision, and the Yen may benefit from a less-dovish BoJ as market participants scale back bets for additional monetary support.

At the same time, it seems as though the value-added tax (VAT) will have a limited impact on the BoJ’s policy stance as Governor Kuroda continues to see a moderate recovery in Japan, and the central bank head may even sounds more hawkish this time around as the VAT raises the outlook for price growth. In turn, a more material shift in the policy outlook may highlight an improved outlook for the Japanese Yen, while a further decline in trader sentiment may also generate greater demand for the low-yielding currency as it benefits from risk aversion.

As a result, the USD/JPY may continue to give back the rebound from the end of March as former support (104.00 pivot to 104.15 38.2% Fibonacci expansion) now acts as resistance, and the pair may ultimately make another run at the 101.00 handle in April should the BoJ see scope to halt its easing cycle sooner rather than later.

British Pound Will Look for Rate Hopes to Keep 1.6500 Intact

Fundamental Forecast for Pound:Neutral

• Interest rates have been key to the sterling’s performance, which is seen in its strength vs JPY and weakness vs NZD
• With the yield forecast so high, each piece of data can undermine bullish hopes

Attachment 6391

The British pound offered up an unflattering performance this past week. While the currency was unable to mount a meaningful advance, neither would it loose substantial ground against most counterparts. Stability in exchange rates is sought by central bankers but not currency traders. Looking out over the coming week, the question is whether there is enough of a tide to drive the sterling to a revive the bullish trend that flourished from this past summer until February or the spark that sends the currency tumbling.

Before plotting the sterling’s course, it is important to appreciate its current bearings. Since the UK economy started to show evidence of turning around and current BoE Governor Carney stepped in with a more hawkish message, the currency has appreciated against all of its counterparts with the exception of the New Zealand dollar (whose central bank has actually hiked rates). With a modest loss against a high-yield and aggressive carry counterparts like the kiwi to substantial gains against the dovish Canadian dollar (GBPCAD is up 12.3 percent) or stimulus heavy yen (GBPJPY 11.4 percent), it is clear what matters most for the pound: yield forecasts.

In the risk spectrum, the pound carries enough of a safe haven appeal to compete with major liquid counterparts; but its market rates are material enough to keep it out of the ‘liquidity of funding currency only’ category. According to short-term rates markets, the market seems to pin the first Bank of England rate hike around March of 2015. That is well ahead of the Fed, RBA, ECB and Bank of Canada.

Maintaining that hawkish/bullish outlook until that first move is realized is the difficult part. At current levels, the market’s assumptions for rates are high. To maintain current levels – much less gain further ground – we would need to see an improvement in economic activity and material return of inflation pressure. We will find updates on both fronts with this week’s data – likely offering the market more to work with than the Bank of England decision scheduled for Thursday…

For economic updates, we have data that will cover employment, factory activity, trade, housing and a general growth assessment. Of the reports, the NIESR GDP Estimate for March is most comprehensive. While this data is afforded relatively little attention (or at least short-term volatility), it maintains a particularly good and leading relationship to the official GPD statistics. Furthermore, given an increased scrutiny over data that shapes rate decisions, this report could be afforded more respect.

Economic strength is key to ushering in a return to rate hikes, but what truly necessitates such a move is inflation. While we don’t have the CPI figures until the following week, we do have the RICS house price measure and the BRC’s Shop Price Index – which is a very good proxy for the official ONS consumer reading.

Assessing rate expectations through sterling activity alone or through sheer will of analysis is difficult. Sterling traders should be particularly attuned to the government bond (Gilt) yield curve. Should the market grow increasingly certain of a hike in the near future and further price additional tightening to follow in a regime, we will see it in rising yields in 2-year, 5-year and even 10-year bond yields.

Forex Weekly Outlook April 7-11

The US dollar gained against most currencies and the euro was on the back foot in a busy week. And now, rate decisions in Japan and the UK, Australian employment data and the FOMC meeting minutes of Yellen’s first decision are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers ahead.

The all-important US Non-Farm Payrolls, slightly disappointed with a 192,000 jobs gain in March. The expectations were high since the winter storms were over and a strong rebound was anticipated. Nevertheless, the release still indicates recovery and consists of encouraging details. The taper train remains on track. Mario Draghi sent the euro lower on more dovish rhetoric and despite a lack of action. Is the ECB serious about QE? In the UK, PMIs weighed on the pound, and the loonie finally staged a recovery after a great Canadian jobs report. More volatility ahead? Let’s start:

1. Japan rate decision: Tuesday. The Bank of Japan maintained its accommodative monetary policy for the sixth consecutive month, to help the ongoing growth trend in Japan’s economy. Deflation fears have subsided while the BOJ strives to achieve a 2% inflation rate. The bank also upgraded its assessment on capital investment amid a pick-up in business activity. This is the first decision of the BOJ after the sales tax hike and it comes in the one year anniversary of Kuroda’s monetary blitz.
2. US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, 14:00. The US economy increased its Job openings to 3.974 million in January from December’s revised print of 3.914 million. However the reading was below market forecast of 4.015 million. The hiring rate and separation rate remained nearly unchanged at 3.3% and 3.2%, respectively. The Federal Reserve’s new chair Janet Yellen highly regards JOLTS Report as a good indicator for hiring in the US economy. Jobs openings in February are expected to reach 3.99 million.
3. FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. These are the meeting minutes of Yellen’s first decision, in which a third taper of QE to $55 billion was announced and forward guidance was dropped. More importantly, markets will look for hints about the timing of a rate hike, something that was conveyed by Yellen in the press conference with the 6 months comment and ignited a dollar rally.
4. Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. The Australian economy increased its labor force by 47,300 jobs in February, following 18,000 climb in January. The reading topped market forecast of 15,300 job addition. However the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a decade high of 6%. Full-time employment edged up by a staggering 80,500 but was offset by a drop in part-time workers. Despite a positive reading, both the RBA and the Treasury believe the unemployment rate will rise in the coming months as the economy struggles to transition from a fading mining investment boom to broader based growth. Australian economy is expected to add 14,300 jobs while the unemployment rate is predicted to remain 6%.
5. UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The BoE maintained its rate at a five –year low of 0.5%, in March. The Monetary Policy Committee decided to reinvest 8.1 billion pounds of proceeds from government bonds the Bank bought through its quantitative easing program and which are due to mature in March. The pick-up in recovery witnessed in recent months forced the central bank to reinvent its forward guidance policy. BoE last month broadened the focus of the guidance towards a wider assessment of spare capacity, or slack in the economy, to refrain from raising rates or tightening monetary conditions and also indicated that the first rate hike could come in the second quarter of 2015. No change in rates is expected.
6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits edged up more than expected last week, reaching 326,000, however the general trend indicates the Us labor market is continuing to improve. The 16,000 addition compared to the previous week increased the four-week moving average to 319,500. Despite this relapse, the number of claims has been generally stable in March suggesting acceleration in the US job market. Claims are expected to decline to 314,000.
7. G20 Meetings: Thu-Fri. G20 meetings taking place in Washington DC are attended by finance ministers and central bankers from 20 industrialized nations including the G7 nations – Canada, Italy, France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US. The discussions are closed to the press but officials usually give statements to reporters after the meetings have been concluded.
8. US Federal Budget Balance: Thursday, 18:00. The federal expenses generally increased in February, but this year the increase was 32% lower than last year. February’s budget deficit reached $193.5 billion compared to the $203.5 billion posted in February 2013. In the five months of the government’s fiscal year, the total is up to $377.5 billion, 24% smaller than last year. The good news is that the deficit has improved to where it’s running at about 3% of GDP, the normal 40-year average. US Federal budget deficit is expected to improve to -$127.5 billion.
9. US PPI : Friday, 12:30. Prices of finished goods fell slightly in February, down by 0.1%, following a 0.2% rise in the previous month. Analysts expected a 0.2% increase. On a yearly base, producer prices rose 0.9%, the smallest 12-month increase since last May. The recent drop suggests, inflation remains low. However, Fed officials have expressed concern about the persistence of low inflation. If it remains below target, the Fed may stop scaling back its stimulus measures. A rise of 0.1% is expected this time.
10. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 13:55. U.S. consumer sentiment declined in March to 79.9 from 81.6 in the prior month, the lowest level since November 2013. Economists expected the index to rise to 81.9. Meanwhile, Conference Board consumer confidence report edged up to 82.3, the highest since 2008 but relied mostly on consumers’ expectations. Consumer sentiment is expected to rise to 81.2.

Nikkei forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Nikkei as you can see gapped higher during the week, and then just went higher from there. We believe that this market will continue to go bullish, and now that we are above the ¥15,000 level, we believe that the market will target the recent highs which were above the ¥16,000 level. With that being the case, we are buyers, although we anticipate a bit of volatility between here and there. There is no interest in selling, as the market should be supported by not only a weakening Japanese yen, but also a Bank of Japan which continues to flood the markets with liquidity.

http://youtu.be/4CfU6SfaY4U


Attachment 6405

DAX forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The German index fell during the week, but found enough support below the €9600 level in order to pop back up and form a hammer. This hammer of course suggests that the market is going to find buyers here, and because of this we believe that the market will ultimately break out to the upside. The €9800 level courses the resistance area that we are looking at, but above there we think the market is free to go to the €10,000 level. Any pullback from here will more than likely be some type of buying opportunity as there seems to be plenty of support below.

http://youtu.be/eR3PvcM-ASk


Attachment 6406

NASDAQ forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The NASDAQ initially try to rally during the week, but as you can see found the 4300 level to be a bit too resistive. Because of this, we ended up forming a massive shooting star, but we are sitting right on top of a massive hammer from two months ago. With that, we feel there is far too much support all the way to the 4000 level to start selling, and quite frankly would feel much more comfortable buying a supportive candle if and when it prints. At this moment, we are on the sidelines.

http://youtu.be/eoYelMSXS9w


Attachment 6407

MIB forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The MIB broke higher during the week, and quite frankly never pulled back at all. It really seems to be broken out to the upside, and certainly is one of the more bullish markets that we see right now. It is the strongest of the European indices without a doubt, and that being the case we believe that the market will continue to go higher as the move has been so strong are ready.

The MIB tends to attract money when people are more confident as it is a peripheral market of Europe, which tells us that the European markets in general should do fairly well. The market broke above the 22,000 level, so we have cleared yet another psychologically significant handle. However, we are looking at the market that is relatively parabolic, so pullback wouldn’t be a big surprise. However, we fully anticipate the buyers stepping in en masse when the market pulls back and inevitably finds support.

That being the case, we feel that the market will be very supported at the 20,500 level, as there is a major cluster there. We essentially broke out above the 21,000 level though, so it’s very possible that the market pulls back to that level and find support as well. Regardless, a supportive candle is enough of a reason for us to start buying this market again as it certainly is bullish. With that, there is absolutely no way to sell this market, and it isn’t until we get below the 19,000 level that we feel even remotely interested in selling this market which of course has been one of the better performers lately.

Going forward, we expect to see this market head to the 25,000 level, but understand that it’s going to take quite a bit of time, so with that being the case we are buyers on dips and would add to our position longer term. By the time we get 25,000 or so, we would like to have a large position puts into the market as we believe in the trend of this obviously bullish index.

http://youtu.be/4gjWXGe66RE


Attachment 6408

IBEX forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The IBEX broke out during the week, clearing the €10,500 level, which was previous resistance. Because of this, we feel that this market will continue to go much higher, and pullbacks are buying opportunities in the Spanish index, as it is considered to be one of the more peripheral and therefore volatile markets. With that, we believe this market will continue to go higher over the longer term, as European markets start to look more and more healthy. A move to €15,000 ultimately will be the target we aim for, but understand that it will take some time to get there.

http://youtu.be/VEw-307nbKg


Attachment 6409

CAC forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Parisian index initially fell during the week after gapping, but managed to fill the gap and find €4400 to be supportive. That being the case, the market did in fact breakout from that point, touching the €4500 level. We believe that pullbacks at this point in time should continue to offer plenty of buying opportunities, as the buyers have certainly taken control this market recently. Going forward, we believe that this market will continue to grind higher, and are not dissuaded by the fact that the €4500 level offered resistance, as it is simply a large, round, psychologically significant number.

http://youtu.be/Ylq_ickKCn4


Attachment 6410

S&P 500 forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 as you can see rallied during most the week, but he got beat back just underneath the 1900 level in order to form a massive shooting star. That shooting star of course suggests that there is weakness coming into the marketplace, but we see so much support at the 1840 level that it’s almost impossible to start selling here. With that, we are bullish long-term, but recognize that a little bit of consolidation may be coming. As far as support is concerned, we see all the way down to the 1780 level.

http://youtu.be/QqP-9vbOzlg


Attachment 6411

FTSE forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The FTSE initially fell during the week, but as you can see the 6600 level offered enough support to push the market higher. It appears that the market is going to continue to grind in a slow upward manner. The bullish channel that we have been in since August of last year still appears to be intact, and as a result we fully anticipate this market to continue going higher. That being the case, any type of pullback should be a buying opportunity, and we believe that the market will eventually head to the 7000 handle.

http://youtu.be/MmAFhSxZBsU


Attachment 6412

Dow Jones 30 forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones 30 tried to rally during the week, and although it did keep some of the gains, we saw a significant sell off at the 16,600 area. Because of this, we ended up forming a shooting star and we believe that this market may pullback a little bit from here. We don’t look at this is a selling opportunity though, we actually look at it as a continuation of the consolidation that we’ve seen for so long. There is a significant amount of support below, so at this moment in time we are looking for supportive candles below in order to start buying again, or a break of the highs.

http://youtu.be/LdDLty2omxA


Attachment 6413

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index initially fell during the week, but as you can see found enough support at the 80 handle in order to turn things back around and form a hammer. This of course suggests that the market is going to continue to find buyers, and we still believe that the consolidation area will be tested to the upside again. That has is looking for the 81.25 level at first, and if we can get above there, we believe that the more significant in the longer-term consolidation area which has resistance closer to the 84.00 level will be targeted. We have no interest in selling this market until we get below the 79 handle, something that does not look likely at the moment.

http://youtu.be/QnW0ItFKvjc


Attachment 6414

Silver forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

Silver markets did almost nothing during the week, so therefore there really isn’t a whole lot to look at when it comes to this chart. However, gold looks like it’s trying to bottom, so perhaps silver is to. We still see the $19 level is massive support, so therefore we can’t short being that close to it. On the other hand, we need to see at least a close on the daily chart above the top of the weekly candle here in order to start buying, which we think would release this market to go to the $22 level.

http://youtu.be/dQ66VQk71js


Attachment 6415

Crude Oil forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude markets fell during the week initially, testing the $99 level for support. That being the case, the market found enough support down there to bounce and form a massive looking hammer. This hammer suggests the course of the market is going to go higher, probably stretching the market to the $105 level initially, or perhaps it just simply treading water in this general vicinity. Because of this, the market is certainly positive in our opinion, and we have no interest whatsoever in selling this market.

That being the case, we feel that until we get below the $97 level, it’s impossible to sell this market. That’s especially true with the hammer being formed, as it is such a bullish sign. We believe that ultimately this market will continue to drift higher, probably as high as $110 over the next several months.

Attachment 6416

Brent

The Brent market fell during the majority of the week as well, but did find the $104 level to be supportive. That area has been supportive in the past, and the fact that the candle formed a hammer for the week, suggests that we are going to have plenty of support underneath going forward. With that, we are much more bullish again, and we believe that we heading towards the $112 level given enough time. It isn’t until we break below the $104 level that we feel that this market starts to really lose its luster.

On top of that, the $102 level should be supportive as well, so really we don’t have a scenario where we feel comfortable selling. On top of that, it appears that the employment situation in the United States picking up, so that will drive demand for commodities in general. Going forward, we would expect pullbacks to continue to offer buying opportunities in a market that certainly seems to have a bid in it at the moment. However, all things being equal we actually prefer the light sweet crude market over the Brent market, as it is more favorable to North American consumption.

http://youtu.be/paEsp46x92Y


Attachment 6417

Natural Gas forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets fell during the beginning of the week, but as you can see found enough support near the $4.20 level to turn things back around and form a pretty impressive looking hammer. With this in mind, we feel that a break to the upside could be a buying opportunity again, but we do believe ultimately that the natural gas markets will start to fall again. However, the technical analysis suggests that we are going to see continued buying, heading towards the $4.80 level more than likely if we can break to the upside.

http://youtu.be/HSzIKx7M1eI


Attachment 6418

Gold forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The gold markets fell initially during the week, but as you can see found enough support below the $1300 level to bounce and form a hammer. This hammer suggests that the market is going to go higher, something that we see on the daily charts as well. We believe the market will head towards the $1400 level, and then possibly break out above there. We are buyers on a break of the top of the hammer as it should continue to show bullishness in this market as gold may have just bottomed and the $1200 level.

http://youtu.be/ny-qHKQpaIg


Attachment 6419

USD/JPY forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair rose during the bulk of the week, but fell backwards and formed a shooting star. This suggests that we are going to continue to bounce around in the consolidation area that we’ve seen recently, so while it is a bearish signal, we believe that there’s enough support below to keep this market somewhat afloat. That being the case, we feel that the market will be a “buy on the dips” type of situation, and believe that that opportunity will present itself rather soon. Selling is not an option.

http://youtu.be/ownWtOXLssQ


Attachment 6420

USD/CAD forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair fell during the bulk of the week, breaking below the 1.10 level. That of course is a negative sign, but we see support only down to the 1.09 handle, so even though we’ve had a fairly negative week, it would not surprise us at all to see support come back into the marketplace in this general vicinity. Right now, we do not have a trade signal at all but are paying attention to this next week as it could be pivotal for our positioning in this market going forward.

http://youtu.be/T7NOB4_dhhw


Attachment 6421

NZD/USD forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair spent most of the week falling, but as it approached the 0.85 level, found enough buyers to push the market back up. The resulting candle is somewhat of a hammer, and it tells us that the market is more than likely going to try to continue to go higher, and a break of that high has this market looking for the 0.90 level given enough time. The 0.85 level is now support as far as we can tell, and in fact we considered it the “floor” of the market.

http://youtu.be/rH0yMwEQm-0


Attachment 6422

GBP/USD forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair fell during the week, but really didn’t have that wide of the range. The 1.65 level below is still support as far as we can tell, and as a result we think that this market will offer a buying opportunity soon. Any supportive candle in that general vicinity has us buying, but the question then remains whether or not we would even get there? After all, the Friday candle was in fact a hammer, which of course is a nice buying opportunity and signal as it were.

http://youtu.be/7GItQdUlwBA


Attachment 6423

EUR/USD forecast for the week of April 7, 2014, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair ended up forming a shooting star for the week, but as you can see on the daily charts, we formed a hammer for the Friday session. The 1.37 level has offered support in the past, and it appears that it’s doing so now. However, if you only look at the weekly chart, you will not see that there is in fact underlying support at the moment. With that in mind, it’s a bit difficult to get involved in the long side, simply because the longer-term chart looks a bit on the soft side right now, even though the daily chart tells you the exact opposite. Nonetheless, we certainly wouldn’t sell this market, because there is so much support shown not only on the daily chart, but the fact that there is a cluster that goes all the way down to the 1.3450 level.

With this, we believe that this market may continue to have a slightly positive bias, but quite frankly it’s a difficult one to be concerned about for a longer-term trader, as it will more than likely simply offer headaches had, and not necessarily profits.

Even if we broke down here, is going to be difficult to hang onto the trade to the downside Sibley because there is so much in the way of noise below and the volatility would be a bit much for us to be interested in being involved in. There are easier markets out there to trade, and the EUR/USD pair will more than likely continue to be one that is preferred buying short-term traders, especially once the trade very short timeframe charts.

On the other hand, if we broke above the top of the shooting star from either this week or last week, we believe at that point in time the market would break out to the upside eventually, and clear the 1.40 level would be a longer-term buy-and-hold type of situation in the making


http://youtu.be/8S1wKo0RyjQ


Attachment 6424

Forex: Australian Dollar Outlook Hinges on Jobs Data, FOMC Minutes

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

• Australian Dollar May Rise if the Jobs Report Surprises vs Forecasts
• Hawkish March FOMC Minutes May Undermine Aussie Upside Push

Attachment 6425

Monetary policy expectations are in focus for the Australian Dollar. The aftermath of Friday’s disappointing US Non-Farm Payrolls release proved quite telling. The Aussie rose even as stocks fell and the Japanese Yen – a currency traditionally on the opposite end of the risk sentiment spectrum from Australian unit – launched a formidable recovery. The move tracked a jump in the Australia-US 10 year bond yield spread, reflecting erosion in Fed monetary policy expectations relative to those of the RBA.

In the week ahead, this puts the spotlight on March’s Australian Employment report. Expectations point to a 2,500 increase in hiring, marking the smallest gain in three months. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.1 percent, the highest since July 2003. This sets the bar relatively low for an upside surprise, an outcome with distinct possibility considering Australian news-flow has outperformed consensus forecasts by the largest margin since May 2013 over recent weeks (according to data from Citigroup). Such a scenario is likely to further amplify the Aussie’s perceived policy advantage, allowing the currency to build on its latest gains.

The US side of the policy outlook equation will likewise find itself in flux as the Federal Reserve releases minutes from the March 18-19 meeting. That sit-down produced a notably hawkish shift in the central bank’s rhetoric and traders will be keen to parse through the conversation underlying policymakers’ confidence. The release will be bracketed by a busy calendar of official commentary, with speeches from the Fed’s Evans, Tarullo, Plosser and Kocherlakota (the lone dissenting vote at the March meeting) all due to cross the wires. Evidence pointing to QE cutback continuity can offer a lifeline to the greenback and cap AUD/USD gains.

Forex - Weekly outlook: April 7 - 11

The dollar pared back gains against the euro on Friday and fell against the yen, despite the latest U.S. employment report indicating that the economic recovery is on track.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, below expectations for jobs growth of 200,000. February’s figure was revised up to 197,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, compared to expectations for a tick down to 6.6%.

The data disappointed some market expectations for a more robust reading but indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to stick to the current pace of reductions to its asset purchase program.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session down 0.12% to 1.3703, after falling to a five-week low of 1.3673 earlier. For the week, the pair lost 0.52%.

The shared currency remained under pressure after the European Central Bank said Thursday it would use unconventional measures if necessary to stave off the risk of deflation in the euro zone.

ECB President Mario Draghi said the governing council was "unanimous" in its commitment to using all unconventional instruments within its mandate to cope with the risk of low inflation becoming entrenched. He added that the bank discussed the possibility of negative deposit rates. The comments came after the bank left rates on hold at a record low 0.25%.

USD/JPY fell 0.63% to end Friday’s session at 103.27, after hitting session highs of 104.13 immediately following the release of the jobs report.

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar rose to five-week highs against the greenback, bolstered by a stronger-than-forecast domestic jobs report for March.

Statistics Canada reported that the economy added 42,900 jobs last month, well above the forecast jobs growth of 21,500, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 6.9% from 7.0% in February.

USD/CAD fell 0.51% to settle at 1.0980, after falling to a session low of 1.0955 after the release of the data. For the week, the pair ended down 0.67%.

The Australian and New Zealand dollar were also higher against the greenback on Friday, with AUD/USD settling at 0.9292, not far from the four month peaks of 0.9306 hit earlier in the session. NZD/USD was up 0.63% to 0.8598.

In the week ahead, markets will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting. Monetary policy meetings by the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 7

• Markets in China will be closed for a national holiday.
• The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets. Switzerland is also to release data on consumer price inflation.
• The Bank of Canada is to publish its quarterly business outlook survey.

Tuesday, April 8

• Both Australia and New Zealand are to publish private sector reports on business confidence.
• The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference. Japan is also to publish data on the current account.
• Switzerland is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• The U.K. is to release a report on industrial and manufacturing production, a leading indicator of economic health.
• Canada is to produce data on building permits.

Wednesday, April 9

• Australia is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment, as well as official data on home loans.
• Both Germany and the U.K. are to produce data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish what will be the closely watched minutes of its latest policy meeting.

Thursday, April 10

• New Zealand is to release private sector data on manufacturing activity.
• Australia is to release data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, in addition to private sector data on inflation expectations.
• Japan is to produce a report on core machinery orders.
• The BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate.
• Canada is to publish data on new house price inflation.
• In the U.S., the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, April 11

• The BoJ is to publish monetary policy meeting minutes.
• China is to produce data on consumer price inflation.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and the preliminary report on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.

USD/JPY weekly outlook: April 7 - 11

The dollar fell against the yen on Friday, after a report showing that the U.S. economy added slightly fewer than expected jobs in March, but the data was unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve from its current timetable for reductions to its stimulus program.

USD/JPY fell 0.63% to end Friday’s session at 103.27, after hitting session highs of 104.13 immediately following the release of the jobs report, the strongest level since January 23.

The pair was likely to find support at 103.00 and resistance at 104.11.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, below expectations for jobs growth of 200,000. February’s figure was revised up to 197,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, compared to expectations for a tick down to 6.6%.

The data disappointed some market expectations for a more robust reading but indicated that the U.S. central bank is likely to stick to the current pace of reductions to its asset purchase program.

The yen fell to 10-week lows against the dollar earlier Friday as risk appetite continued to be underpinned by hopes that China will implement economic stimulus measures to shore up slowing growth.

The yen also came under pressure after Japan’s sales tax increase to 8% from 5% came into effect on Tuesday. The increase is expected to present a challenge to the Bank of Japan’s attempts to bolster economic growth and stave off deflation.

Elsewhere, the yen was sharply higher against the euro on Friday, with EUR/JPY dropping 0.73% to close at 141.54. For the week, the pair lost 0.44%.

The shared currency weakened broadly after the European Central Bank said Thursday it would use unconventional measures if necessary to stave off the risk of deflation in the euro zone.

ECB President Mario Draghi said the governing council was "unanimous" in its commitment to using all unconventional instruments within its mandate to cope with the risk of low inflation becoming entrenched. He added that the bank discussed the possibility of negative deposit rates. The comments came after the bank left rates on hold at a record low 0.25%.

In the week ahead, markets will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting, while Tuesday's BoJ policy setting meeting will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, April 8

• The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference. Japan is also to publish data on the current account.

Wednesday, April 9

• The Federal Reserve is to publish what will be the closely watched minutes of its latest policy meeting.

Thursday, April 10

• Japan is to produce a report on core machinery orders.
• In the U.S., the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, April 11

• The BoJ is to publish monetary policy meeting minutes.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and the preliminary report on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.

USD/CHF weekly outlook: April 7 - 11

The dollar pared gains against the Swiss franc on Friday, pulling back from five-week highs after a report showed that the U.S. economy added slightly fewer than expected jobs last month.

USD/CHF ended Friday’s session at 0.8916, down from highs of 0.8953, the strongest since February 13. For the week, the pair was 0.81% higher.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.8850 and resistance at 0.8951.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, below expectations for jobs growth of 200,000. February’s figure was revised up to 197,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, compared to expectations for a tick down to 6.6%.

The data disappointed some market expectations for a more robust reading but indicated that the U.S. central bank is likely to stick to the current pace of reductions to its asset purchase program.

The dollar rose to more than five-week highs against the Swissy earlier Friday as risk appetite continued to be underpinned by hopes that China will implement economic stimulus measures to shore up slowing growth.

In the week ahead, markets will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting. Switzerland is to release data on retail sales inflation and foreign currency reserves.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 7

• The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets. Switzerland is also to release data on consumer price inflation.

Tuesday, April 8

• Switzerland is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Wednesday, April 9

• The Federal Reserve is to publish what will be the closely watched minutes of its latest policy meeting.

Thursday, April 10

• The Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, April 11

• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and the preliminary report on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.

USD/CAD weekly outlook: April 7 - 11

The Canadian dollar rose to five-week highs against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as a stronger-than-forecast domestic jobs report for March bolstered demand for the loonie.

USD/CAD fell 0.51% to settle at 1.0980, after falling to a session low of 1.0955 following the release of the data. For the week, the pair ended down 0.67%.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.0930 and resistance at 1.1040, the session high.

Statistics Canada reported that the economy added 42,900 jobs last month, well above the forecast jobs growth of 21,500. The increase came after the economy shed 7,000 jobs in February.

Canada’s unemployment rate declined to 6.9%, the first drop this year, from 7.0% in February. Analysts had expected the jobless rate to remain unchanged.

At the same time, a report showed that the U.S. economy added slightly fewer than expected jobs last month.

The U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department said, below expectations for jobs growth of 200,000. February’s figure was revised up to 197,000 from a previously reported 175,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, compared to expectations for a tick down to 6.6%.

The data disappointed some market expectations for a more robust reading but indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to stick to the current pace of reductions to its asset purchase program.

In the week ahead, markets will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting. Data from Canada’s housing sector will also be closely watched. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 7

• The Bank of Canada is to publish its quarterly business outlook survey.

Tuesday, April 8

• Canada is to produce data on building permits.

Wednesday, April 9

• The Federal Reserve is to publish what will be the closely watched minutes of its latest policy meeting.

Thursday, April 10

• Canada is to publish data on new house price inflation.
• In the U.S., the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, April 11

• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and the preliminary report on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.

AUD/USD weekly outlook: April 7 - 11

The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session at a five-month high against its U.S. counterpart, as traders reassessed their expectations for how quickly the Federal Reserve will roll back its stimulus program following the release of disappointing U.S. employment data.

AUD/USD rose to 0.9306 on Friday, the pair’s highest since November 21, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9292 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.66% for the day and 0.47% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9204, the low from April 3 and resistance at 0.9332, the high from November 21.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, below expectations for jobs growth of 200,000. February’s figure was revised up to 197,000 from a previously reported 175,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, compared to expectations for a tick down to 6.6%.

The data disappointed some market expectations for a more robust reading but indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to stick to the current pace of reductions to its asset purchase program.

The Aussie drew additional support from hopes that China will implement economic stimulus measures in the near-term to shore up slowing growth.

The Asian nation is Australia’s biggest trade partner.

Meanwhile, in Australia, official data released Thursday showed that retail sales rose 0.2% in February, less than the expected 0.3% increase.

A separate report showed that Australia's trade surplus narrowed to A$1.20 billion in February, from A$1.39 billion in January. Analysts had expected the trade surplus to narrow to A$0.82 billion in February.

The data came after the Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low of 2.50% at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Tuesday.

Commenting on the decision, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said borrowing costs were likely to remain low for an extended period of time.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators significantly reduced their bearish bets on the Australian dollar for the third consecutive week in the week ending April 1.

Net shorts totaled 4,880 contracts, compared to net shorts of 20,527 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, market players will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting for further clues on the future course of monetary policy.

Australian employment data scheduled for Thursday will also be closely-watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 7

• Markets in China will be closed for a national holiday.

Tuesday, April 8

• Australia is to publish private sector reports on business confidence.

Wednesday, April 9

• Australia is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment, as well as official data on home loans.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish what will be the closely watched minutes of its latest policy meeting.

Thursday, April 10

• Australia is to release data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, in addition to private sector data on inflation expectations.
• In the U.S., the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, April 11

• China is to produce data on consumer price inflation.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and the preliminary report on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.

NZD/USD weekly outlook: April 7 - 11

The New Zealand regained ground against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as weaker than expected U.S. employment data forced investors to recalibrate their assumptions about the future course of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

NZD/USD rose to 0.8700 on Tuesday, the pair’s highest since August 2, 2011, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8600 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.63% for the day but still 0.64% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8513, the low from April 3 and resistance at 0.8700, the high from April 1.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, below expectations for jobs growth of 200,000. February’s figure was revised up to 197,000 from a previously reported 175,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, compared to expectations for a tick down to 6.6%.

The data disappointed some market expectations for a more robust reading but indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to stick to the current pace of reductions to its asset purchase program.

The kiwi rallied to the highest level since August 2011 earlier in the week boosted by a stronger growth outlook and hopes that China will soon take steps to shore up slowing economic growth.

The New Zealand dollar has been well-supported in recent weeks as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand began to tighten monetary policy, while growing expectations for monetary stimulus in China, a key export market for New Zealand, also benefitted the kiwi.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators increased their bullish bets on the New Zealand dollar in the week ending April 1.

Net longs totaled 18,480 contracts as of last week, compared to net longs of 18,213 contracts in the previous week.

In the week ahead, market players will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting for further clues on the future course of monetary policy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 7

• Markets in China will be closed for a national holiday.

Tuesday, April 8

• New Zealand is to publish private sector reports on business confidence.

Wednesday, April 9

• The Federal Reserve is to publish what will be the closely watched minutes of its latest policy meeting.

Thursday, April 10

• New Zealand is to release private sector data on manufacturing activity.
• In the U.S., the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, April 11

• China is to produce data on consumer price inflation.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and the preliminary report on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.

GBP/USD weekly outlook: April 7 - 11

The pound ended the week lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday after reports showed that all three U.K. PMI surveys for March fell short of expectations, while data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy added slightly fewer than expected jobs last month.

GBP/USD touched lows of 1.6556, the weakest since March 26 and was last down 0.14% to 1.6574. For the week, the pair last 0.54%.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.6480 and resistance at 1.6660, Thursday’s high.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, below expectations for jobs growth of 200,000. February’s figure was revised up to 197,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, compared to expectations for a tick down to 6.6%.

The data disappointed some market expectations for a more robust reading but indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to stick to the current pace of reductions to its asset purchase program.

The pound remained softer after data on Thursday showed that the U.K. service sector continued to expand steadily in March, albeit at the slowest pace in nine months.

The Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers index ticked down to 57.6 last month from 58.2 in February. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 58.1.

The index remained well above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction, and signaled another month of robust growth in the sector, which comprises more than three-quarters of the U.K. economy.

Earlier in the week, reports showed that the manufacturing and construction PMI’s for March also came in below market expectations but still pointed to robust first quarter growth in the U.K.

Elsewhere, sterling was almost unchanged against the euro on Friday, with EUR/USD settling at 0.8268 at the close of trade. The euro fell sharply against the pound on Thursday after the European Central Bank it would use unconventional measures if necessary to stave off the risk of deflation in the euro zone.

In the week ahead, markets will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting. Thursday’s monetary policy announcement by the Bank of England will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, April 8

• The U.K. is to release a report on industrial and manufacturing production, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, April 9

• The U.K. is to produce data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish what will be the closely watched minutes of its latest policy meeting.

Thursday, April 10

• The Bank of England is to announce its benchmark interest rate.
• In the U.S., the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, April 11

• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and the preliminary report on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.

EUR/USD weekly outlook: April 7 - 11

The dollar pulled back from one-month highs against the euro on Friday after the release of data showing that the U.S. economy added slightly fewer than expected jobs in March.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session down 0.12% to 1.3703, after falling to a five-week low of 1.3673 earlier. For the week, the pair lost 0.52%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3673 and resistance at 1.3730, Friday’s high.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, below expectations for jobs growth of 200,000. February’s figure was revised up to 197,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, compared to expectations for a tick down to 6.6%.

The data disappointed some market expectations for a more robust reading but indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to stick to the current pace of reductions to its asset purchase program.

The shared currency remained under pressure after the European Central Bank said Thursday it would use unconventional measures if necessary to stave off the risk of deflation in the euro zone.

ECB President Mario Draghi said the governing council was "unanimous" in its commitment to using all unconventional instruments within its mandate to cope with the risk of low inflation becoming entrenched. He added that the bank discussed the possibility of negative deposit rates.

The central bank left rates on hold at a record low 0.25% at its monthly meeting, despite data earlier in the week showing that the annual rate of euro zone inflation slowed to 0.5% in March, the lowest since November 2009.

The ECB targets an inflation rate of just under 2%.

In the week ahead, markets will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting. German trade data will also be watched in data light week.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday and Tuesday as there are no relevant events on these days.

Wednesday, April 9

• Germany is to produce data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
• The Federal Reserve is to publish what will be the closely watched minutes of its latest policy meeting.
• Thursday, April 10
• In the U.S., the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, April 11

• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and the preliminary report on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.

You are an edgy and energetic person. You are an individual who doesn't do well with subtleties as your current way of life doesn't have a fixed daily schedule yet. As a scalper/day trader, you encapsulate attributes in the two classes. Once in a while you love the activity when markets are moving quick. At different occasions, you will in general get stressed in a similar market conditions.