Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Forecast –USDollar Resuscitated by NFPs but Bulls Difficult to Keep Satisfied
The Dollar recovered from an initial slip this past week to close the period in the green. However, the fundamental cost to lift the Greenback was remarkably high. It will be difficult for the currency to keep buoyant – much less maintain the pace of the rebound – heading into the coming week.

British Pound Forecast – Post-BoE GBP/USD Weakness to Persist; Downside Targets in Focus
GBP/USD stands at risk of giving back the rebound from the July low (1.2788) as the Bank of England (BoE) reverts back to its easing cycle, while positive data prints coming out of the U.S. economy boosts bets for at 2016 Fed rate-hike.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Japanese Yen May be Days Away from a Significant Break Lower
The Japanese Yen finished the week almost exactly where it began, but notable financial market volatility meant that USD/JPY price action was anything but straightforward. Yen volatility will likely continue on a highly-anticipated communique from the Bank of Japan in the days ahead, and indeed traders should exercise caution amid choppy price action in the USD/JPY.

Australian Dollar Forecast –RBA’s Lack of Dovish Forward Guidance Provides Support For AUD
The Australian Dollar touched its highest level against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday at 0.76632 since July 15 before the Statement of Monetary Policy provided little forward guidance that caused traders to take their profits.

Chinese Yuan Forecast - Yuan Volatility Elevates During Heavy Week of Data
This week, both the onshore and offshore Yuan weakened against the US Dollar following the advances of the prior week. As of 10:30am EDT, the onshore Yuan (USD/CNY) dropped by -0.23% to 6.6520 while the offshore Yuan (USD/CNH) lost -0.65% to 6.66831.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Move Lower After Blowout NFP Stokes Dollar Strength
Last week ended with another bump higher in Gold prices as an abysmal U.S. GDP print brought to question the prospect of any near-term rate hikes out of the Federal Reserve.

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US Dollar Forecast – USDollar Range to Extend Unless CPI or Fed Speakers Shift Rate Timing
Conditions are extraordinarily quiet across the financial market, and the Dollar is certainly not escaping the lethargy.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Yen Runs to Resistance as Stimulus Bets Continue to Price-Out
The Japanese Yen has been quite the volatile currency of recent. After the Brexit referendum drove the Yen to fresh highs as risk aversion permeated through global markets, a two-week bout of weakness in the currency threatened to pose a longer-term reversal on the prospect of an even more enhanced stimulus package coming out of the Bank of Japan.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar May Fall as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rebuild
The Australian Dollar may decline amid rebuilding near-term RBA rate cut speculation following minutes from Augusts’ policy meeting and July’s employment data.

Canadian Dollar Forecast - CAD to Pare 2016 Losses on Sticky Inflation, Strong Retail Sales
The recent string of lower highs & lows in USD/CAD accompanied by the mixed data prints coming out of the U.S. raises the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate especially as economic developments coming out of Canada are anticipated to show sticky price growth paired with a pickup in private-sector consumption.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - RBNZ Rate Cut Fails To Derail New Zealand Dollar Trend
The New Zealand Dollar is the little (regarding relative G10 GDP) currency that could. Despite the 25bp rate cut by the RBNZ on Thursday morning, the New Zealand Dollar continues to be pushing higher.

Chinese Yuan Forecast - Yuan Holds the Range While Hopes of PBoC Rate Cuts Diminish
This Thursday marks the one-year anniversary of the PBOC de-pegging the Yuan from the US Dollar.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices in Holding Pattern- Fed, Inflation Outlook in Focus
Gold prices ended the week fractionally higher with the precious metal advancing just 0.1% to trade at 1337 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Looks to Yellen to Turn Volatility into Trend, Will She Acquiesce?
Indecision is a universal market theme. And, the Dollar has not escaped the sedation. A confluence of conviction and participation is proving exceptionally difficult to muster due to the growing sense of skepticism in fundamental value as well as the seasonal lull that we expect through the ‘Summer doldrums’.

European Euro Forecast – Euro Traders Look to US Dollar for Next Major Moves
The Euro surged to multi-month highs versus the US Dollar despite a fairly uneventful week for both Europe and the US.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Clues and Hints Point to BoJ Bazooka in September: Will USD/JPY Respond?
Last week we looked at the strength in the Yen as markets continued to price-out QE hopes after the Bank of Japan failed to deliver at their July meeting. But as we’ve been noting, just because the BoJ didn’t deliver on expectations in July, this doesn’t mean that the bank is yet ‘done.’

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar May Fall Further on Yellen Jackson Hole Speech
The Australian Dollar vulnerable to deeper losses if Fed Chair Yellen boosts interest rate hike speculation with a much-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – Canadian Dollar Split on Weak Data and Crude Oil’s Bull Market
The price of USD/CAD seemed to breakdown this week far past what most expected. Multiple components led to the Canadian Dollars impressive performance against the US Dollar that hit a speed bump on Friday.

Chinese Yuan Forecast – Yuan Continues to Consolidate Ahead of G-20
This is the third week that the offshore Yuan (USD/CNH) held a tight range between 6.6220 and 6.6700; the onshore Yuan (USD/CNY) was in an even tighter range between 6.6220 and 6.6550.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Primed for Volatility- All Eyes on Jackson Hole
Gold prices were relatively flat this week with the precious metal up just 0.57% to trade at 1343 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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Euro Forecast – All Eyes on ECB: Extension of QE, or just More Wait-and-See?
The European economy continues to flail, that much can be widely agreed upon without further debate. Unemployment throughout the bloc remains stubbornly above the 10% threshold, and this week, more evidence contributed to the mounting case that the March ‘bazooka’ of stimulus triggered by the ECB has yet to show any additional signs of promise for the European economy.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Aussie to Stage Larger Recovery on Wait-and-See RBA, Strong 2Q GDP
The near-term series of higher highs & lows in AUD/USD may gather pace next week as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely anticipated to retain its current policy in September, while the regions 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is projected to highlight the fastest pace of growth since 2012.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Yen Becomes Defensive As Central Banks Expected To Act Soon
The Japanese Yen finished last week lower against the majority of G10 FX as traders anticipate the dual Central Bank meeting of Federal Reserve and the BoJ on September.

Chinese Yuan Forecast – Yuan Volatility Elevates on G-20, Heavy Data
The USD/CNH held above 6.6832 as support despite a weaker-than-expected U.S. August Non-Farm Payrolls print released on Friday. In terms of the upper band, the pair touched 6.7026 on Monday, the highest level in over a month, but failed to hold above the key resistance of 6.7000.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices to Face Central Bank Volatility as Sentiment Stretches
Gold prices softer this week with the precious metal off 0.17% to trade at 1318 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast - Dollar Climb Now in the Hands of a Heavily-Contested Fed Decision
The outlook for the Dollar through the coming week is both highly uncertain and a clear risk of extreme volatility. Regardless of asset, the lightning rod for investors ahead is the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, September 21st.

British Pound Forecast - GBP/USD to Shed August Rebound on Hawkish Fed Rate Decision
With market attention turning to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) September 21 interest-rate decision, GBP/USD stands at risk of giving back the rebound from the August low (1.2854) should the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric boost expectations for a 2016 rate-hike.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar May Fall Further on Hawkish FOMC Guidance
The sentiment- and yields-sensitive Australian Dollar may fall for a third consecutive week if the FOMC delivers a hawkish monetary policy

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - Will Wheeler Pose a Rate Cut Now or Wait Until November?
When the RBNZ cut the overnight cash rate in August, few probably would’ve expected what would happen next.

Canadian Dollar Forecast - Will Canadian GDP Highlight Continued Pressure in Exports?
The loonie is sliding, and there is no lack of reasons to blame. In fact, this week we’ve seen new worries added to the reasons for the Canadian economy’s pending weakness similar to what we’ve seen in the Mexican Peso.

Chinese Yuan Forecast -Yuan Rates at a Crossroads Ahead of FOMC
The offshore Yuan touched the strongest level in three weeks despite no Yuan reference rate was issued by the PBOC beginning on Thursday, due to a 3-day national holiday.

Gold Forecast - Gold Prices Approaching Support Ahead of Key FOMC Rate Decision
Gold prices are lower this week with the precious metal off 1.46% to trade at 1308 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast - Dollar to be Jostled by Traders Speculation and Fed Officials Forecasts
The Federal Reserve announced to the market a ‘hawkish hold’ at its policy gathering this past week, and in turn offered little resolution to the market’s conflict over the Dollar’s current richness or cheapness.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve Keep USD/JPY Downtrend Intact
The Japanese Yen rallied for the third-consecutive week versus the US Dollar on a key disappointment from the US Federal Reserve and relative inaction from the Bank of Japan.

British Pound Forecast - GBP/USD to Face Fresh Monthly Lows on Hawkish Fed Rhetoric
With a slew of Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak throughout the last full-week of September, the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may generate new monthly lows in GBP/USD should they boost market expectations for a 2016 rate-hike.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Aussie Dollar to Fall as Fed-Speak, US Data Fuel Rate Hike Bets
The Australian Dollar launched an impressive recovery last week, with the lion’s share of gains coming in the wake of the FOMC monetary policy announcement.

Chinese Yuan Forecast -Yuan Likely Stable to Prepare for a Smooth SDR Entry
The Chinese Yuan will officially join the SDR basket as the fifth reserve currency on October 1st. This will likely be the dominant theme for all Yuan pairs in the coming week.

Gold Forecast - Gold Prices Post Largest Weekly Rally Since June on Patient Fed
Gold prices are markedly higher this week with the precious metal up 2.26% to trade at 1339 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast - NFPs Stall Dollar’s Run, Where Will the Drive Come This Week?
The Dollar enjoyed an impressive run this past week despite a grounded view of risk trends and little progress pushing forward expectations of a 2016 Fed hike. The 1.3 percent climb for the ICE Dollar Index was the largest since the Brexit vote drove shaken investors to the warm embrace of the world’s primary reserve currency.

British Pound Forecast - GBP/USD ’Flash Crash’ Rebound Looks to BoE/Fed Rhetoric for Fuel
The British Pound ‘flash crash’ is likely to gain increased attention as a slew of Bank of England (BoE) officials are scheduled to speak over the days ahead, but the abrupt depreciation in the sterling may encourage the central bank to endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as it heightens the risk of overshooting the 2% target for inflation.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Aussie Dollar Vulnerable to Deeper Losses as Fed Outlook Firms
The Australian Dollar may face continued selling pressure as firming Fed interest rate hike bets undermine yield- and sentiment-based support for the currency.

Chinese Yuan Forecast -Yuan Eyes on PBOC after Week-long Holiday
The offshore Yuan (USD/CNH) broke the psychological level of 6.70 in the first trading week as a global reserve currency, while Chinese onshore markets were closed and no Yuan fix was issued by the PBOC.

Gold Forecast - Gold Prices Plummet- Downside Risk Remains on Hawkish Fed
Gold prices plummeted this week with the precious metal down nearly 5% to trade at 1252 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The decline marks the largest weekly loss since October of 2014 and come alongside a broad rally in the U.S. Dollar with the DXY climbing more than 1.3% this week.

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US Dollar Forecast - Dollar Run Not As Robust as Bulls Think, Needs Euro or Risk Stumble
How strong is the Dollar? This past week, the DXY Dollar Index posted its most robust weekly advance (1.44 percent) in nearly eight months. Yet, there is a trade-weighted bias in this this measure that gives considerable deference to the EUR/USD, GBP/USDand USD/JPY(descending in that order).

British Pound Forecast - GBP/USD Tightening Range at Risk with More Fed Rhetoric on Tap
Key developments coming out of the U.S. & U.K. may push GBP/USD out of a narrowing range even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains in no rush to raise the benchmark interest rate, while the Bank of England (BoE) appears to be altering its monetary policy outlook following the British Pound‘flash crash.’

Australian Dollar Forecast –Changing of the Guard at the RBA: Getting to Know Dr. Phillip Lowe
The most recent Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision at the beginning of October was the first to be led by newly-installed RBA Governor, Dr. Phillip Lowe; ending a run of ten years in which the bank was led by his predecessor, Mr. Glenn Stevens.

Canadian Dollar Forecast –Bank of Canada Rate Decision Could Boost CAD Alongside Oil’s Run
The Canadian Dollar will look toward the Bank of Canada Rate Announcement and subsequent statement to see whether or not there are signs of encouragement in the Canadian economy.

Chinese Yuan Forecast -Yuan Looks to China’s 3Q GDP, PBOC after Hit Fresh Lows
The offshore Yuan dipped the lowest level in 9-month, with the USD/CNH climbing above 6.74 on Thursday. The onshore Yuan fell to the lowest level since September 2010, with the USD/CNY touching 6.7312.

Gold Forecast -Gold Price Weakness to Persist as Fed Officials Push DEC Rate Hike
Gold prices were virtually unchanged on the week with the previous metal down just 0.05% to trade at 1256 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The recent range-bound price actions comes amid broader volatility in U.S. Equity markets with all three major indices set to close lower on the week.

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US Dollar Forecast - Is This A Dollar Rally or EUR/USD Tumble – It’s Not the Same Thing
The ICE Dollar Index (DXY) posted another impressive week’s advance through this past Friday. That marksthree consecutive weeks that the benchmark currency has climbed to eight-month highs – and at the fastest pace since the November rally back to 12-year highs.

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Range Vulnerable to 3Q GDP Reports, BoE/Fed Rhetoric
The 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports coming out of the U.K. and U.S. along with a fresh wave of central bank rhetoric may spur increased volatility in GBP/USD, but the pair may continue to consolidate within a narrow range as British Prime Minister Theresa May increases her efforts to avoid a ‘hard Brexit.’

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian CPI to set the Tone in Aussie
while the Australian economy has now went 25 years without an actual recession, a lack of inflation as global growth has cooled has raised some very serious questions about sustainability of Australian growth.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – BoC Talk, “Impossible” Trade Pact, and Weak Retail Sales Hurt CAD
The Canadian Dollar lost ground across the board last week as the fundamental hits keep coming. The Canadian Dollar fell to its lowest level since March 16 when the Federal Reserve dashed hopes of an interest rate hike in the near future to complement their December hike.

Chinese Yuan Forecast -USD/CNH Eyes All-Time High as PBOC Tolerance Grows
Both the offshore and onshore Yuan dropped to six-year lows on Friday: The USD/CNH hit 6.7756 and the USD/CNY touched 6.7635.

Gold Forecast –Gold Price Bounce, Rebound in Questions Ahead of US GDP
Gold prices were on a firmer footing this week with the precious metal up 1.15% to trade at 1265 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The gains come despite continued strength in the greenback with the USDIndex (DXY) rallying back into the 2016 open at 98.69 (highest levels since February).

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USD/JPY Rally Vulnerable to Wait-and-See BoJ, 7 to 3 FOMC Split
The FOMC's November interest rate decision may fuel the near-term rally in USD/JPY as the central bank appears to be following a similar path to 2015, but more of the same from the BoJ accompanied by another lackluster U.S. NFP report may undermine the recent advance in the exchange rate as it erodes the case for a further deviation in monetary policy.

Dollar Traders: Election Speculation, Fed Decision and Risk Fears
What fundamental winds bode well for the US Dollar and which portend trouble? There are simplistic expectations set out for the world’s most liquid currency, and that can lead to misconceptions and unwanted surprise for traders.

Aussie Dollar May Look Past RBA as FOMC, NFP Take Center Stage
The Australian Dollar may overlook a status-quo RBA rate decision as prices seek fuel for a breakout in the FOMC policy announcement and US employment data.

Gold Prices: Calm Before the Storm as Focus Shifts to FOMC, NFP
Gold prices were fractionally higher this week with the precious metal up nearly 1% to trade at 1275 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

Poloz Backtracks but CAD Stays Weak: Is More Stimulus on the Horizon?
In a world in which Central Banks have become the primary driver of most global economic trends, markets have built-in a tendency to draw inference from the slightest of suggestions.

Record Trade Deficit Puts Pressure on RBNZ to Cut
The New Zealand Dollar has been in salvage mode since October 13 as it recovers from a near 6% drop over 26 trading days that began in early September.

Yuan May Drop Further Against Dollar as Long as Firms to Basket
The offshore Yuan dropped to record lows this week, with the USD/CNH touching 6.7984 on Friday.

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