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This is a discussion on Technical Forecasts within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Bullion Round Up “Whilst there may have been a concerted effort to short the metal, in our view this was ...

          
   
  1. #11
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    Gold & Silver; Further Selling Ahead!

    Bullion Round Up

    “Whilst there may have been a concerted effort to short the metal, in our view this was only successful due to a fundamental lack of conviction behind gold in any of its key markets, including Asia, the principal source of physical demand,” according to RBC analyst Jonathan Guy. In addition to Jonathan’s argument, we would like to add that the physical buying frenzy may have reached its limit. Gold managed to move higher due to short covering but the continuous outflow of ETF seems to dominate the overall long term confidence in gold prices. We fear that investors who are still holding gold at $ 1300 may consider closing their position either taking small profit or a loss. After all, the gold market is in correction mode and further weakness is not a surprise at all.
    Meanwhile, Bloomberg wrote an exclusive report on Janet Yellen who is highly recommended to replace the outgoing Ben Bernanke. Miss Yellen has been a proactive member in the Fed camp to continue the QE programme and in the latest report, seek higher inflation in order to curb rising unemployment. It is too early to say if she will replace Mr Bernanke but she shares the same view in terms of low interest rate, continuous QE programme and a possibility of easing inflation rate. Given the latest soft reading on US GDP numbers, the Fed will more likely to continue the course of monetary easing in the near future.
    This week economic data to watch out for are EU unemployment rate (which may add pressure on ECB Draghi to act soon), Chinese Manufacturing PMI (bad data will add global pressure on recovery), US ADP nonfarm employment change (another negative number may send the dollar lower), US ISM manufacturing Index (again a crucial number to determine if the sequester may have started to take hold) and the week to end with US Nonfarm payrolls and % change that will get the biggest media attention.
    Gold Technical

    Last Friday, gold put up a strong run to the high of $ 1485 before selling pressure came in. Asian trading hours came with strong buying interest and a weaker US dollar help propel the yellow metal. After making 6 out of 7 days gain, sellers came in and possibly locking in their profit as it is the end of the week and close to the end of the month. Gold rebound looks to have run out of steam as analysts are worried that physical demand may dry up soon. Prices have moved higher and it may start putting off potential buyers. In addition, a potential bear flag is in the making and gold is not out of the woods yet. Investment banks are revising their forecast and lower their prediction by a few hundred dollars.
    In addition, gold is entering a new month where it is expected to slow down considerably (historically low number in May and June). Traders will be more vigilant for up and coming economic data that may shed more lights to where the market may go. Gold remains at the mercy of the short sellers or potentially new short sellers.

    Resistance: $ 1439, $ 1456, $ 1487 Support: $ 1398, $ 1371, $ 1366, $ 1325

    Silver Technical

    After breaking pass the 38.2% retracement line at $ 24.32, prices have broken lower. Silver met strong resistance at the 20 DMA $ 25.33 and also resistance at the 50% retracement line at $ 25.03. Technically, the 4 hourly chart indicate a possible blown off top and prices are reversing in the short term. There is additional selling pressure if silver failed to hold support at $ 23.99 and $ 23.72 area. After last Friday rebound, silver may continue to consolidate the recent rise or it could potentially continue on a downward course. We are not sure where the bottom lies but felt that it may retest previous low at $ 22.06.
    Resistance: $ 24.82, $ 24.91, $ 25.59 Support: $ 23.72, $ 23.46, $ 19.00


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  2. #12
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    Daily Expectations - FX2 (USDCHF,AUDUSD, USDCAD)

    Daily Reports (Trends, Precise Entry & Exit levels and Strategies) on 36 Crosses and Spot Gold. Also provide Live Trade Signals on a daily basis.
    USDCHF
    USDCHF closed @ 9365 which was BELOW the open and breached the previous day's low. The High was 15 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 25 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 2.
    The Hourly Oscillators are Bearish and the Price is Mildly Below the MA, so the Bulls have to be Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 9460 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Up while 9205 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.
    The Daily Closed < S2 ,it has a Hourly potential target 9300-9265 levels but the break of 9355 is critical and 9340-9275 are the Bullish Violation Zone . The Patterns are suggesting a Range with a limited downside and the Bulls may soon gain control but cautious approach is needed. The 15min is in a Range , but the downside is supported and has a target of 9300-9265 levels . The Bearish Violation Zone is 9425-85 levels and the PT Anchor Low/ High is 9355-95 levels, US Consumer Confidence are the important data for today
    BULLS:* ***9355* ***9315* ***9275*** *
    BEARS:*** *9405*** *9440*** *9500
    Today's Strategies:* *LONG near 9315 9275 with a tight stop with a 35-50 pips price target.
    *
    AUDUSD
    AUDUSD closed @ 10350 which was ABOVE the open and breached the previous day's high. The High was 25 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 2 and the Low was 15 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 1.
    The Hourly Oscillators are Bullish and the Price is Above the MA, so the Bears have to be Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 10250 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Down while 10525 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.
    The Daily Closed > R1 ,it has a Hourly potential target 10385/10415-75 levels but the break of 10365 is critical and 10480-10525 are the Bearish Violation Zone . The Patterns are suggesting that the downside is limited and the Bulls may creep higher but cautious approach is needed. The 15min is in a Range , but the downside is supported and has a target of 10440-10500 levels . The Bullish Violation Zone is 10235-75 levels and the PT Anchor Low/ High is 10330-65 levels, US Consumer Confidence are the important data for today
    BULLS & BEARS: ****To View full Report, Please Sign Up for a Free 1 Week Trial
    Today's Strategies:**** To View full Report, Please Sign Up for a Free 1 Week Trial
    *
    USDCAD
    USDCAD closed @ 10110 which was BELOW the open and breached the previous day's low. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 5 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 2.
    The Hourly Oscillators are Bearish and the Price is Below the MA, so the Bulls have to be Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 10235 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Up while 9930 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.
    The Daily Closed < S2 ,it has a Hourly potential target 10025-00 levels but the break of 10080 is critical and 10225-80 are the Bearish Violation Zone . The Patterns are suggesting that the downside is limited and so cautious approach is needed. The 15min is in a Range , but the upside is protected and has a target of 10080-25 levels . The Bearish Violation Zone is 10245-85 levels and the PT Anchor Low/ High is 10095-10150 levels, US Consumer Confidence are the important data for today
    BULLS & BEARS: ****To View full Report, Please Sign Up for a Free 1 Week Trial
    Today's Strategies:**** To View full Report, Please Sign Up for a Free 1 Week Trial



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  3. #13
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    Daily Expectations - FX1 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)

    Daily Reports (Trends, Precise Entry & Exit levels and Strategies) on 36 Crosses and Spot Gold. Also provide Live Trade Signals on a daily basis.
    EURUSD
    EURUSD closed @ 13100 which was ABOVE the open and breached the previous day's high. The High was 25 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 2 and the Low was 20 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 1.
    The Hourly Oscillators are Bullish and the Price is Above the MA, so the Bears have to be Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 12985 holds and Daily Trend is also Sideways while 12745 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.
    The Daily Closed > R1 ,it has a Hourly potential target 13200-50/13360 levels but the break of 13145 is critical and 12880-12790 are the Bullish Violation Zone . The Patterns are suggesting that the Bulls may creep higher but cautious approach is needed . The 15min is in a Range , but the downside is supported and has a target of 13145/13200-45 levels . The Bullish Violation Zone is 12990-13045 levels and the PT Anchor Low/ High is 13065-13115 levels, GER & EU Unemployment Rate, US Consumer Confidence are the important data for today
    Bulls:** 13065* *13025* *12985** *** Bears:* *13145** 13200** 13245
    Today's Strategies:* *LONG near 13065 13045 with a tight stop with a 35-50 pips price target.
    *
    GBPUSD
    GBPUSD closed @ 15500 which was ABOVE the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 5 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 5 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 1.
    The Hourly Oscillators are MIXED and the Price is Above the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 15345 holds and Daily Trend is Limited Up while 15035 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.
    The Daily Closed < R1 ,it has a Hourly potential target 15560/15625-60 levels but the break of 15515-45 is critical and 15285-25 are the Bullish Violation Zone . The Patterns are suggesting that the downside is limited and the Bulls may creep higher but cautious approach is needed. The 15min is in a Range , but the downside is supported and has a target of 15475-15 levels . The Bullish Violation Zone is 15285-45 levels and the PT Anchor Low/ High is 15450-15515 levels, US Consumer Confidence are the important data for today
    Bulls & Bears:** To View full Report, Please Sign Up for a Free 1 Week Trial
    Today's Strategies: **To View full Report, Please Sign Up for a Free 1 Week Trial
    *USDJPY
    USDJPY closed @ 9775 which was BELOW the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 10 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 20 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 2.
    The Hourly Oscillators are Bearish and the Price is Below the MA, so the Bulls have to be Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 9900 holds and Daily Trend is Turning Down while 9995 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.
    The Daily Closed @ S1 ,it has a Hourly potential target 9665-10/9580 levels but the break of 9735 is critical and 9845-9975 are the Bearish Violation Zone . The Patterns are suggesting a Range with a potential downside breakout and the Bears may creep lower but cautious approach is needed. The 15min is in a Range , but the upside is protected and has a target of 9735-9655 levels . The Bearish Violation Zone is 9900-50 levels and the PT Anchor Low/ High is 9765-9820 levels, US Consumer Confidence are the important data for today
    Bulls & Bears:** To View full Report, Please Sign Up for a Free 1 Week Trial
    Today's Strategies:* *To View full Report, Please Sign Up for a Free 1 Week Trial



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  4. #14
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    Gold & Silver; End of Austerity?

    Bullion Round Up

    Low inflation numbers and economic growth seems to go hand in hand in the Eurozone and its western counterparts – the US economy. Persistent high unemployment has created social and financial problems for many of these countries. It seems that politicians are too slow to make substantial reforms in the labour market and the monetary easing programme has not trickle down to the main street. Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, central banks have been loading up liquidity to boost market confidence and brought time to sort out the financial mess. There were some improvements but the reward seems rather small for Main Street while larger institutions have benefited from easy money. Some analysts are warning that this easy liquidity are creating asset bubbles that could further damage the economy rather than bringing any long term positive results.
    Initially there were talks among the Federal Reserve on tapering the QE programme. However, the latest US GDP numbers came in lower than expected at 2.5% against what economist predicted at 3%. In addition, there were signs that sequester cuts are creating some negative headlines on up and coming economic data. We would not be surprise if the up and coming FOMC statement will sound more dovish than the previous one. Once again, we felt that gold may not gain any real benefit from the release of the statement. Instead, we felt that gold may remain in a tight range or even break lower. It is becoming a pattern that gold hold not much correlation and prices seems to be dictated by the continuous outflow of funds from gold backed ETF. This is not the first time we address this divergence – we have in fact questioned what exactly is causing the gold price to go up and down. There are various old answers but we remain unconvinced.
    Meanwhile, anti-austerity movement in the Eurozone is gaining traction. Italy new PM Mr Letta has cast doubt on pursuing aggressive austerity programme that are causing more economic hardships. Both Spain and Portugal has asked for a debt extension programme to try and ease the austerity pressure. EU politicians should not underestimate the call to “taper” austerity. Miss Lagarde of IMF has advised more investment that budget cuts in order to boost economic growth. As long as the Fed continues its current QE programme alongside the Japanese easing programme, the EU end of austerity could easily support gold prices or even propel it higher.
    Gold Technical

    The latest Commitment of Traders Report (COTR) – 23rd April 2013 shows a further reduction of long positions, while short positions have significantly increased. Continuous outflow of funds from ETF is a continuous trend as investors could be moving away from paper gold to physical gold. Gold prices may have rebounded higher but many market technicians argued that it is not out of the woods yet. One of the biggest worry is that gold could break lower and short sellers continue to add pressure. A break below $ 1456 (50% retracement) could easily take gold to a low of $ 1404. However, a break pass $ 1404 will give the bears more control and prices could fall to revisit $ 1325 again.
    Traders will be more vigilant for up and coming economic data that may shed more lights to where the market may go. Gold remains at the mercy of the short sellers or potentially new short sellers.
    Resistance: $ 1487, $ 1496, $ 1525 Support: $ 1456, $ 1425, $ 1404, $ 1325

    Silver Technical

    As gold prices moved higher, silver follow suit and opened higher during the thin Asian trading times. With a weaker US dollar index, the rally continued to retest the upper band of the trend line (see chart below) where the 38.2% retracement line sits currently. COTR report shows the decline in long positions while the short sellers have continued to pile in. This indicate that the industrial metal could revisit lower prices and it is not a surprise when the global economy remain weak (US posted weaker numbers and Chinese GDP at 7.7% only).
    After last Friday rebound, silver may continue to consolidate the recent rise or it could potentially continue on a downward course. We are not sure where the bottom lies but felt that it may retest previous low at $ 22.06.

    Resistance: $ 24.82, $ 24.91, $ 25.59 Support: $ 23.72, $ 23.46, $ 19.00


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  5. #15
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    Could the Central Bank Actions Change the Gold-Backed ETP Outflows?

    The U.S. Comex gold futures fell $122.70 and 7.69 percent in April, representing the largest sell-off in gold since December 2011 when the gold futures fell over $200 intra-month. The gold futures dropped 12.16 percent year-to-date after a bull-run for twelve consecutive years as the prices surged from $279 at the end of 2001 to $1,675.80 at the end of 2012. Year-to-date, the Dollar Index rose 2.48 percent, the S&P 500 index surged 12.02 percent, the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 2.89 percent while the CRB Commodity index dropped 2.33 percent.
    Mixed Global Economic Data
    Global economic news has been mixed at best. In the U.S., the April consumer confidence index jumped unexpectedly to 68.1 while the S&P/Case-Shiller housing index rose 9.3 percent year-on-year in February.
    Despite the housing improvement, the manufacturing remains an area of concern as seen in the recent lower-than-expected April Chicago purchasing manager index. In April, China’s manufacturing PMI expanded at 50.6 compared to 50.9 in March, indicating that the expansion is slowing down. While the April jobless rate in Germany was unchanged at 5.4 percent, the Euro-area unemployment rate inched up to 12.1 percent and the youth unemployment rate reached 24 percent. The 11 percent rebound in the gold futures from the 15 April’s trough probably reflects the expectations that the U.S. Fed will maintain its bond purchase program while the ECB will cut rates further given the worsening economic data.
    Continued ETP Outflows
    Gold investors are keenly watching the direction of the gold-backed ETP holdings, which fell 174 metric tons or 7.1 percent in April to 2,275.84 metric tons according to Bloomberg. The SPDR gold holdings fell to a 43-month low to 1,078.54 tons at the end of April. Deutsche Bank estimated that institutions, which hold close to 50 percent of SPDR, may further sell down 5 million ounces of gold in Q2. The commodity funds also saw a large net outflow of $7 billion in Q1 according to Barclays. While such outflow may seem to reflect global economic weakness, gold was the single asset dragging down the aggregate with $9.2 billion of net gold funds outflow in Q1. This Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and this Thursday’s ECB announcements will give further clues to gold investors which way they should go.


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  6. #16
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    Gold & Silver; Global Disinflation!

    Bullion Round Up

    The 1st quarter of 2013 was greeted with positive economic data out of the US. Many economists claimed that there is hope to a global economic recovery as long as the US is growing albeit slowly alongside China. As we enter the 2nd quarter, the economic landscape has changed for the worse and undone most of the positive sentiment it produced from the start of 2013.
    Low inflation was initially welcomed as central banks can be flexible to offer low interest rate environment as well as to continue their money printing programme. However, continuous low and decreasing inflation has actually intensified a possible disinflation in the US as well as the Eurozone.
    The big drop in inflation is the big news of the week and will continue to dominate headlines. Forexlive Ryan Littestone argued that ECB mandate is price stability, price stability and price stability. The drop in CPI numbers will have Mr Draghi leaning more to cut interest rate in the next ECB press conference. With high unemployment, falling growth and falling inflation, Mr Draghi will face intense pressure to cut interest rate.
    Meanwhile, Angela Merkel might think otherwise but also faced intense pressure to relax austerity plans.
    The Eurozone faced new problems as the political debate will further intensifies among countries that are struggling with austerity cut apart from Germany.
    Old crisis may resurface anytime and new crisis will only add more burdens on the ECB to act fast. Last check, Cyprus remains in dire situation as the Cypriot parliament will vote on a proposed bail-out deal negotiated with the IMF and EU. The plan involves a € 10 bln loan but Cyprus will need to find an additional € 3 bln to avert the current crisis. If the voting failed, it will only send Cyprus back into the headline and chaos may ensue in the Eurozone once again.
    Gold prices will remain strong as we draw closer to the release of FOMC statement. There are also ADP nonfarm employment change data as well as ISM manufacturing index that will be closely watched. Traders could remain on the side-line as they anticipate any sign of possible tapering or a change in the tone by Fed officials.

    Gold Technical

    Overnight news, Reuters reports holding in the SPDR gold trust fell by 7.2 tons on Friday and total outflows across major ETFs have reached 354.60 tons this year. Edward Meir of INTL pointed out that the recent rebound in gold price due to significant physical demand could potentially start to slow down. Coupled with the continuous outflow in ETF, gold could face more headwinds as it the current price is inching close to a strong resistance level. One of the biggest worry is that gold could start to break lower and short sellers continue to add pressure. A break below $ 1456 (50% retracement) could easily take gold to a low of $ 1404. However, a break pass $ 1404 will give the bears more control and prices could fall to revisit $ 1325 again.
    Resistance: $ 1487, $ 1496, $ 1525 Support: $ 1456, $ 1425, $ 1404, $ 1325


    Silver Technical

    Silver continue to be a volatile metal to trade as it rose in early European trading hours on the back of worse than expected Spanish GDP data but then fell to trade just above $ 24.00 an ounce. CFTC data reveals an increase in silver short which sit at 87% of the record. Meanwhile, silver positioning was cut by 32.8 moz to 75.5 moz as indicated by UBS report. The market remains bearish and this rebound could prove short lived as the speculators are positioning for more price weakness in the next few weeks.
    After last Friday rebound, silver may continue to consolidate the recent rise or it could potentially continue on a downward course. We are not sure where the bottom lies but felt that it may retest previous low at $ 22.06.
    Resistance: $ 24.82, $ 24.91, $ 25.59 Support: $ 23.72, $ 23.46, $ 19.00


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  7. #17
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    GOLD, forecast on Wednesday, 05/01/13

    The pair is trading along an uptrend.
    The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1478, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1500.An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1467, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1453 and then 1433.
    Supports: 1467, 1460, 1453, 1433
    Resistances: 1478, 1500





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  8. #18
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    Bullion Thoughts David Govett

    Good morning, Not a good day for commodities across the board, especially those linked to industrial usage. Precious metals and base metals both fell heavily, with silver and the PGM's leading the way for the former. Gold initially held up in the face of the sell off, but succumbed to the pressure mid way through the afternoon. Figures from China, Australia and the US, all suggested that the global economy is slowing down once again and this led to the slump in prices. The FOMC meeting brought no real surprises, with the following statement summing up the continuance of QE. " The committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes".
    This really tells us all we need to know and had very little impact on the market. We now await the ECB rate decision later today, along with Initial Jobless Claims. After that we shall wait for NFPs tomorrow. A lot of waiting in store!!!
    But overall, gold has run out of steam on the upside as we expected and is trading in the range I mentioned on Monday of 1440-1480. I would expect this to remain ahead of all the figures and news. Physical buying slowed this week with China on holiday and with prices higher, but is still beneath the market, providing some support on dips. The Chinese market opened again overnight, but little in the way of gold buying was seen, which is slightly disappointing given the fact that prices are thirty to forty dollars lower than when they went on holiday. I think that in the absence of any news, I would look to sell rallies in gold and silver for the time being. My view is that the relief rally of last week is over and that we will see lower prices again. Not necessarily in the violent way we witnessed a couple of weeks ago, but rather a drift downwards. However, with all the figures out today and tomorrow, tread carefully!!


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  9. #19
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    GOLD, forecast on Thursday, 02/05/13

    The pair is trading along an downtrend.
    The downtrend may be expected to continue while pair is trading below resistance level 1460, which will be followed by reaching support level 1444 and 1433.An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1460, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1476 and then 1500.
    Supports: 1444, 1433
    Resistances: 1460, 1476, 1500





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  10. #20
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    GBP/USD, forecast on Thursday, 05/02/13

    The pair is trading along an uptrend.
    The uptrend may be expected to continue while pair is trading above support level 1.5525, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.5675.An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1.5525, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1.5400.
    Supports: 1.54525, 1.5400
    Resistances: 1.5580, 1.5675





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