Technical Forecasts

Good morning everyone. Monday’s forecast was in the right direction for the most part. Looking to see some retracements happening from the moves that occured Friday & Monday. Today US Dollar could loose some steam together with Japanese yen. I’m not adding any hedged pairs to offset the trading risk. Happy trading everyone!!

Forecasts Outlook US Dollar : Weak
Today we're expecting the EURUSD to proceed Long above the barrier levels of 1.30844 and 1.31113.

Fundamental Watch - Inflation Report Hearings
- Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
- CB Consumer Confidence
- New Home Sales





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Resistance:	128.40-70	129.20	129.60	129.90
Support:	127.85-95	127.05-27	126.80	126.35

BIAS: While 128.40-70 caps we should see losses to 126.80 and 125.55-75MAIN ANALYSIS: Losses were seen yesterday although the low eluded me. There is still downside to come and this should see the 128.40-70 area cap (max 129.20) for losses to resume back to yesterday's 127.27 low and allow for the 127.05 corrective low and possibly even 126.80. Down in this 126.80-127.27 area we should see a correction and once complete should then see price extend to the 125.55-75 area at least. If USDJPY begins to break down also then allow for the 124.95-16 lows. From one of these target areas we should see a modestly deeper correction.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only back above 129.20 would risk a move back towards the 129.90 high. Perhaps then I'd have to reconsider the possible recycling to the 130.70 and 131.28-60 areas.
For more information regarding the support & resistance and medium term outlook please see the attached PDF file.
Good trading
Ian Copsey


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The pair is trading along an downtrend.

The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1278, which will be followed by reaching support level 1243.An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1303, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1332.
Supports: 1278, 1243
Resistances: 1297, 1303, 1332





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The pair is trading along an downtrend.The downtrend may be expected to continue from resistance level 1.5622, or in case the market drops below support level 1.5355, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.5120.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.5622, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.5880.

Supports: 1.5355, 1.5120
Resistances: 1.5535, 1.5622, 1.5705, 1.5880





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Good morning everyone. Tuesday’s forecast was in the right direction for the most part. We may see some ranging today & market could pick a diretion in time to come. US Dollar could loose some steam together with Japanese yen. I’m not adding any hedged pairs to offset the trading risk. Happy trading everyone!!

Forecasts Outlook US Dollar : Weak
Today we're expecting the EURUSD to proceed Short below the barrier levels of 1.30755 and 1.31033.

Fundamental Watch - BOE Gov King Speaks
- Trade Balance
- ANZ Business Confidence





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Market Review - 25/06/2013 22:20GMTDollar strengthens broadly due to upbeat U.S. data

The greenback rose against major currencies in New York morning on Tuesday as solid U.S. durable goods, new homes sales and consumer confidence showed the U.S. economy is improving at a steady pace, spurring the expectation that the Federal Reserve will reduce its stimulus measures by the end of this year.
Although the single currency rose from Asian low at 1.3109 to 1.3151 in European morning on renewed risk appetite as China's equities pared its early losses, the pair retreated from 1.3143 in New York morning due to the dovish comments from ECB's Draghi together with the upbeat U.S. durable goods (3.6% versus the forecast of 3.0%), price dropped further to an intra-day low at 1.3065 after the released of better-than-expected U.S. new homes sales and consumer confidence (0.476M and 81.4, versus the expectations of 0.462M and 75.4) before staging a recovery in U.S. afternoon.

ECB's President Draghi said 'economic outlook still warrants an accommodative monetary policy stance; see some signs of stabilization in sentiment, even through uncertainties remains; OMT essential now as we see potential changes in monetary policy stance, with associated uncertainty, elsewhere in world; exit from accommodative monetary policy is still distant as inflation is low, unemployment high.'

Despite dollar's brief rise to 98.07 against the Japanese yen in Asian morning due to the gain in Nikkei-225 index, active cross buying of yen versus euro pressured the pair below Monday's low at 97.21 to 96.95 in European morning, however, dollar's broad-based strength due to the upbeat U.S. data lifted price to 98.03 in New York morning before stabilising.

The British pound traded narrowly in Asia and rose briefly to 1.5480 in New York morning, dollar's strength pressured the pair to a low at 1.5397 before staging a recovery to 1.5436 at U.S. midday.

In other news, ECB's Coeure said 'our exit is distant and our monetary policy will remain accommodative.' BoE's
Bean said 'adverse affect of bank rate cut might be tempered with scheme with graduated remuneration of reserves.' BOE King said 'senior government officials have come under immense pressure from banks to lobby BoE on bank regulation; will not be sensible to return interest rates to normal levels until there is sustainable recovery; will be serious solvency problems at banks if debt levels not reduced before rates increase.'

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Germany Gfk consumer confidence, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, France GDP, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, PCE core.



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Bullion Round Up

Gold and silver started this week on a weaker tone as prices continue to be under selling pressure. Both metals broke below key support levels without a fight as bearish sentiment dominates and buyers are nowhere to be seen. Rebound rally is short-lived and any rallies are to be sold. Bloomberg report confirms that Hedge Funds have shifted to their bearish stance on the precious metals. Analysts from top banks continue to revise their price projection lower from their previous publication. They provided similar reasoning such as the lack of demand for safe haven assets, low inflation numbers, Fed’s tapering, better yields elsewhere and the fear of rising real interest rate. At the moment, we are bearish on both metals – a retest of lower numbers is possible.
Meanwhile, several swing traders view the following area at $ 1250 to $ 1260 as a reasonable short term trading opportunity to buy gold for corrective move that will not undo structural damage. While the technical traders are aiming for a lower number such as $ 1150 to $ 1050 before a reasonable rebound can be seen. The bears remain in control and with lack of any physical demand, investors see no reason to buy but waiting for lower prices might be the best option. In the short term, gold could retest lower number before we could see a pick-up in demand. Technically, a retest between $ 1220 and $ 1260 is possible as the following area offer good support. David Govett of Marex Spectron summarise the market as follows:
“As I said yesterday, I remain a seller of rallies and we have now twice seen the price move above 1300 and fail in as many days. As long as the global situation remains the way it is, I see no reason to change strategy. Physical buying is not abundant and quite frankly at this moment in time, there are no real reasons to be long of precious metals. However, there is very little interest out there at the moment and this should keep prices range-bound for the time being.”
On a separate note, several Fed officials are playing down Mr Bernanke FOMC speech on tapering. A Bloomberg article quote that Richard Fisher, president of the Fed Bank of Dallas, said investors shouldn’t overreact to the central bank’s plans to reduce the pace of asset purchases, in an interview with the Financial Times published on its website today. This week will see speeches from Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart, Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker, Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto and Bank of San Francisco President John Williams. Comments such as the above could easily affect the dollar index and may give the equity market some breathing space from the sell-off.
Gold Technical

After a weaker than expected start, gold continue to break lower as the short sellers tried to take gold to test previous low at $ 1269 area. Sellers continue to dominate the marketplace since there is a lack of physical and paper gold buyers. Physical demand has not reached the “insatiable” level that was made back in April sell-off. We maintain our bearish view on gold and the selling to continue a little longer. In a healthy market, the sellers usually will face exhaustion and we felt that the gold market soon consolidate before any significant rebound. The new low is set at $ 1269 but we felt that the market could retest low before a potential rebound. Only a break above $ 1325 will give bulls some comfort but we see a potential low at $ 1250 for now. Otherwise, we felt that a major short covering could be on the cards if the situation allows.
Resistance: $ 1325, $1366, $ 1423 Support: $ 1269, $ 1250, $ 1200.
Traders Notes: Buy at $ 1230 - $ 1260 small contract to accumulate – Stop Loss at $ 1225 with target at $ 1318 and $ 1340.

Bearish – target $ 1220

A rebound rally?

Silver Technical

Silver remains under selling pressure and trap within a downtrend channel of a bearish market. A depressed and low growth economic situation has not helped silver as an industrial metal. In addition, its price is heavily influenced by gold after all it is considered as the cheaper alternative. Investors favour lower silver prices and we may continue to see it weaken before any rebound rally. Should we see short covering in gold, we can expect silver to benefit from a relief rally but a continued downward trend will continue for now.
Resistance: $ 21.51, $ 22.35, $ 25.59 Support: $ 19.38, $ 19.00.
Traders Notes: Stay on the side line.

Bearish

Bullish – a potential bull run?

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The pair is trading along an downtrend.
The downtrend may be expected to continue while pair is trading below resistance level 1243, which will be followed by reaching support level 1180.An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1243, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1278.
Supports: 1180
Resistances: 1243, 1278, 1303





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Good morning everyone. Tuesday’s forecast was in the right direction for the most part, in fact except for one pair all other pairs behaved close to what was thought possible. We may see some ranging today & markets could pick a direction in time to come. Will be taking a mixed stance on US Dollar, while Japanese Yen may loose some strength. I’m adding two hedged pairs to offset the trading risk. Happy trading everyone!!

Forecasts Outlook US Dollar : Mixed Sentiments
Today we're expecting the EURUSD to proceed Long above the barrier levels of 1.30201 and 1.29917.

Fundamental Watch - Current Account
- Italian 10-y Bond Auction
- Unemployment Claims
- Pending Home Sales m/m






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Resistance:	97.93-00	98.18-23	98.40	98.68-88
Support:	97.55-60	97.23	96.96	96.74

BIAS: The 97.55 - 98.00 range looks importantMAIN ANALYSIS: No break above 98.35 to confirm the larger move to 99.28+. Thus losses were seen and below 97.67-80 to make it look more like extending losses. However, the recovery from yesterday's 97.23 low does have a constructive look about it and if we treat the 98.23 high as a stubby initial wave there is still an argument for the upside to extend to 99.28+... Here I'll put a 97.45 break level in place. Indeed, if this is to make further gains then I suspect the 97.55-60 area to be the most we see on the downside and from there look for gains up to 98.68-88 and following a brief correction up to the 99.28-60 area (allow for 99.80-90.)
Expect a minor new high around 97.93-00 first ting and then the pullback to test the key support...
COUNTER ANALYSIS: Any earlier break below 97.45-55 and then yesterday's 97.23 low would see this move lower, initially to the 96.96 low and later to 96.45 at least. Take care here. Note the next support at 95.78…
For more information regarding the support & resistance and medium term outlook please see the attached PDF file.
Good trading
Ian Copsey


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