AUD Technical Analysis

Short entry after bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next entry into the zone between 0.7245 and 0.7300.

AUD/USD
Weekly

-There is no change to recent comments. “Corrective (range bound) trading behavior may very well continue given the weekly tweezer bottom (at the long term median line no less). Divergence with RSI on the weekly serves as a bullish reversal warning too.” FXTW adds that resistance may reside in the mid .7400s.


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Weekly price is located below SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the primary bearish market condition. The price is ranging within 0.7547 bullish reversal resistance level and 0.6750 support level with the symmetric triangle pattern to be formed for the direction.

• If the price will break 0.7547 resistance level so we may see the bullish reversal to be started on this timeframe with the secondary ranging condition.
• If price will break 0.6750 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
0.7547	0.6750
N/A	0.6536

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 0.6750 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 0.7547 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish

Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Aussie hits 8-month high but RSI divergence warns of downturn ahead
• Waiting for technical confirmation, passage of event risk to enter short

The Australian Dollar resumed the push upward against its US counterpart after brief one-day respite, rising to the strongest level in eight months. The emergence of negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum however, hinting a turn lower may be brewing ahead

A reversal below the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7438 sees the next layer of meaningful support in the 0.7375-82 area, marked by a recently broken double top and the 61.8% level. Alternatively, a break above the 100% Fib at 0.7540 on a daily closing basis opens the door for a test of the 123.6% expansion at 0.7642.

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The closest key support and resistance levels are so far away from the current price that there is no point in giving any precise signals today. Key support is at 0.7350 and key resistance is at 0.7860.

AUD/CAD: possible bullish breakout. Intra-day price is breaking Ichimoku cloud to above for the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition with 0.9958 key reversal resistance level. Chinkou Span line is located near and below the price to be ready for the breakout, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the future trend as the ranging bullish.

There are the following news events which will be affected on AUD/CAD price movement for the week:

• 2016-03-22 20:00 GMT | [CAD - Annual Budget Release]
• 2016-03-23 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]
• 2016-03-24 12:30 GMT | [USD - Core Durable Goods]

Resistance	Support
0.9958	0.9893
1.0001	0.9863

M5 price is located between SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) waiting for the direction for the possible buy or sell.

• If the price will break 85.86 resistance level so we may see the bullish trend to be started on this timeframe.
• If price will break 85.56 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
85.86	85.56
85.95	N/A

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 85.56 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 85.86 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction

H4 price is located near SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and above SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) waiting for the direction. The price is ranging within narrow s/r levels with the symmetric triangle pattern was formed for the price to be crossed for direction.

• If the price will break 0.7416 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
• If price will break 0.7064 support so the price will be fully reversed to the primary bearish market condition.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
0.7416	0.7356
0.7547	0.7064

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 0.7064 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 0.7416 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction

AUD/USD
Weekly

-AUD/USD faces resistance from the October 2013-January 2014 line, which was precise resistance in 2015 (twice). Risk of a top near the line is heightened given COT considerations. “FXTW has maintained since the start of 2016 that “divergence with RSI on the weekly serves as a bullish reversal warning and that resistance may reside in the mid .7400s.” AUD/USD has pressed into the congestion zone that dominated 2015 so near term trade may take on a more ‘choppy’ tone. Irrespective, focus is higher as per the break above the October and December highs.”
-“The 2nd week of April is lining up as a potentially important pivot in time. The 1993 and 2001 lows (latter is the all-time low) are exactly 392 weeks apart. 392 weeks from the 2001 low is the week of the October 2008 crash (the low was 3 weeks later). 392 weeks from the October 2008 crash is the week of April 11th. My colleague Kristian Kerr, whose cycle work is a must read, often stresses the importance of what a market is doing into a time window. In other words, a high/low could form if the market is heading into resistance/support within the window (and if other conditions are met of course). Also, a break of a key level during this time would warn of possible acceleration in the same direction. Context is key (always is). For now, just know that the week of April 11th is a big point on the X-Axis for Aussie.”


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• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 0.7526
• Aussie Dollar drops below monthly support vs. US namesake
• Short position triggered,initially targeting below 0.74 figure

The Australian Dollar moved lower against its US namesake as expected, taking out support guiding prices higher over the past month. From here, sellers look poised to challenge the uptrend floor established from major swing lows at the start of the year.

A break below 0.7381, the intersection of trend line support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, opens the door for at test of the 50% level at 0.7275. Alternatively, a daily close back above support-turned-resistance at 0.7538 paves the way to challenge the 0.76 figure, followed by the March 31 high at 0.7723.

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