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NZDUSD Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on NZDUSD Technical Analysis within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; NZD/USD Minor Support Surrounds .8200 Daily -NZDUSD has responded to a trendline confluence. The trendlines in question extend off of ...

          
   
  1. #1
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    NZDUSD Technical Analysis

    NZD/USD Minor Support Surrounds .8200

    Daily



    -NZDUSD has responded to a trendline confluence. The trendlines in question extend off of the October and January highs and August and November lows. The reaction is consistent with an important market turn.
    -.8238 and .8187 are possible reaction areas.

    LEVELS: .8136 .8187 .8237 | .8310 .8345 .8362


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    Forex: NZD/USD Technical Analysis

    Talking Points:

    • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
    • Support: 0.8649 (23.6% Fib exp.)
    • Resistance: 0.8689 (0.0% Fib exp.)


    New Zealand Dollar pushed aggressively higher against its US counterpart to test resistance at 0.8675, the April 2013 swing high. A break above this barrier aims for the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.8725. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% level at 0.8639 targets a rising trend line set from February, now at 0.8570.

    Negative RSI divergence warns of a possible turn lower ahead but confirmation is lacking, suggesting a short trade is premature. On the other hand, entering long with prices squarely at resistance is unattractive from a risk/reward perspective. We will continue to stand aside for now.

    NZDUSD Technical Analysis-nzdusd-h4-metaquotes-software-corp-temp-file-screenshot-18945.png





    --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis

    Talking Points:

    • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
    • Support: 0.8607 (23.6% Fib ret.), 0.8500-13 (38.2% Fib ret., Oct 22 close)
    • Resistance: 0.8745 (Apr 10 high)


    The New Zealand may be setting a double top against its US namesake after prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at 0.8745, the April 10 high. Near-term support is at 0.8607, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A daily close below this barrier exposes the 0.8500-13 area, marked by the 38.2% level and the October 22 close, followed by the 0.88 figure.
    Prices are too close to relevant support to justify a short position from a risk/reward perspective. We will remain on the sidelines for now, waiting for a more actionable trade setup to present itself.



    --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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    NZD/USD Near Key Support With Hanging Man Offering Bearish Signal

    Talking Points

    • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Sidelines Preferred
    • Hanging Man hints at a reversal to support at 0.8700
    • Awaiting close of candle on four hour chart to offer signal

    NZD/USD could be primed for a further pullback following the emergence of a Hanging Man pattern on the daily. A push below support at 0.8700 would be seen as a bearish signal and pave the way for a retreat to 0.8500.

    NZD/USD: Hanging Man Offers Bearish Signal Near Key Resistance



    The four hour chart reveals the emergence of a narrow range between 0.8720 and 0.8790. Typically such thin corridors do not persist for extended periods. While a Morning Star formation appears to be forming, the third candle needs to close before offering a bullish reversal signal.

    NZD/USD: Narrow Range Forms As Traders Await Guidance



    By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Key Channel Support Broken

    Talking Points:

    • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
    • Support: 0.8733, 0.8669, 0.8618
    • Resistance:0.8779-93, 0.8835-42, 0.8886

    The New Zealand Dollar broke downward against its US counterpart, dropping to the lowest level in a week. Sellers are aiming to test support at 0.8733, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a daily close below that exposing the 38.2% level at 0.8669. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance in the 0.8779-93 area, marked by the May 6 and June 27 swing highs as well as a broken channel floor, exposes the 0.8835-42 region (major swing high from August 2011, July 10 top).

    Risk/reward considerations argue against entering short with prices trading too close to support. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bullish reversal signal warns against taking up the long side. We will remain flat for now.



    --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: 1-Month Low Hit Below 0.87

    Talking Points:

    • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
    • Support: 0.8618, 0.8567, 0.8504
    • Resistance:0.8669, 0.8733, 0.8779-93

    The New Zealand Dollar dropped for a third consecutive day against its US counterpart, sliding below the 0.87 figure to hit a one-month low. Sellers are aiming to challenge the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8618, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 0.8567. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 38.2% Fib at 0.8669 opens the door for a test of the 23.6% retracement at 0.8733.

    We will tactically opt not to enter short. Next week brings the RBNZ monetary policy announcement, with markets pricing in an 84 percent probability of another interest rate hike. With that in mind, we will remain on the sidelines and look for a bounce to enter short rather than chase the pair lower at present.

    --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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    NZD/USD Hammer Candlestick Offers Glimmer Of Hope To Kiwi Bulls

    Talking Points

    • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Sidelines Preferred
    • Hammer May Fail To Sustain Upside Momentum
    • Selling Pressure Looms Overhead At 0.8530

    NZD/USD’s prod back above the 0.8460 mark may fail to find follow-through with a Hammer formation lacking confirmation at this stage. A second successive up-day would help validate the reversal candlestick. However, the potential for a sustained recovery is questionable with significant selling pressure likely looming overhead at 0.8530.

    Hammer Candlestick Awaiting Confirmation



    The four hour chart offered an early indication of an intraday reversal given the Harami pattern near 0.8420. However, a Doji candlestick denotes hesitation from the Kiwi bulls to push the pair higher. This casts doubt over the potential for a recovery over the session ahead.

    Harami Offered Intraday Reversal Signal



    By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Is a Double Bottom Set at 0.84?

    Talking Points:

    • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
    • Support: 0.8470, 0.8401, 0.8350
    • Resistance:0.8509, 0.8571, 0.8621

    The New Zealand Dollar edged higher against its US counterpart after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern, hinting a double bottom may be forming. Initial resistance is at 0.8509, the intersection of a previously broken rising trend line (set from August 2013) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 0.8571. Alternatively, a turn below the 14.6% Fib at 0.8470 opens the door for a test of the June 4 low at 0.8401.

    Prices are wedged too closely between near-term support and resistance to justify taking a trade from a risk/reward perspective. We will stand aside for the time being, waiting for a more attractive setup to present itself.




    --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



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    NZD/USD Keeping Traders In Suspense As Dragonfly Doji Emerges

    Talking Points

    • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Sidelines Preferred
    • Dragonfly Doji Emerging, Yet Awaits Confirmation
    • Spotlight Remains On The Late Feb Lows At 0.8260

    NZD/USD is struggling to reclaim lost ground with an absence of bullish candlesticks casting doubt on a recovery. A Dragonfly Doji is emerging on the daily, which may offer a sign of hope to the bulls. Yet the key reversal pattern awaits confirmation from the close of the current candle and a successive up-period before being confirmed. This leaves the spotlight on the pair’s late February lows near 0.8260.

    Struggles To Reclaim Lost Ground With Downtrend Intact



    A similar narrative to the daily is present in intraday trade on the four hour chart. Buying interest at 0.8312 has halted the pair’s descent for now as a Bullish Engulfing pattern emerges. A leap over the nearby 0.8343 hurdle would be required to signal the potential for an intraday bounce to 0.8420.

    Bullish Pattern Emerging In Intraday Trade



    By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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    NZD/USD Hammer Candlestick Offers Hopes For A Corrective Bounce

    Talking Points

    • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Sidelines Preferred
    • Hammer Candlestick Pattern Offers Bullish Reversal Signal
    • Climb Over 0.8400 Needed To Suggest A Sustained Recovery

    NZD/USD may have reached a turning point with a Hammer formation offering a sign of hope for the bulls. An ensuing up-day and close above the 0.8400 hurdle would be required to signal the potential for a more sustained recovery for the pair. Yet skepticism over a bounce may be warranted given the backdrop of a pronounced downtrend on the daily.

    Hammer Offers Sign of Hope To The Bulls




    A similar narrative to the daily is evident in intraday trade on the four hour chart. A bounce off the 0.8312 floor has yielded a a Morning Star pattern which signals a shift in sentiment for the pair. The leap over the 0.8343 hurdle opens the potential for a run on the psychologically-significant 0.8400 handle.

    Bullish Pattern Emerges In Intraday Trade



    By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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