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NZDUSD Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on NZDUSD Technical Analysis within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Last week, NZDUSD easily blasted on through resistance in the zone surrounding 7350. The trend is clearly higher along with ...

          
   
  1. #51
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    NZDUSD Options Derived Support and Price in Confluence

    Last week, NZDUSD easily blasted on through resistance in the zone surrounding 7350. The trend is clearly higher along with its sibling currency pair, AUDUSD, and as such the path of least resistance upward won’t be easily reversed in either. The preferred way to enter is via a pullback, and most ideally at a level or zone of support. Kiwi has sound horizontal support in the 7350-vicinity along with a trend-line rising up from May; these align with the one-standard deviation one-week projected low of 7339. If the recent leg up is only the beginning of another sizable run higher like the one seen in May/June, then we might not see a pullback develop into support. But if it does, it could be a good low-risk, high-reward entry for longs. Overall, barring a major turn of events it looks unlikely we will see NZDUSD drop below noted support.

    NZDUSD Technical Analysis-nzdusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    Looking higher, the one-week projected range-high is above the September high and well below major levels of resistance carved out in 2015 just over 7700. This means there may be room to run, and should the projected high be overcome then the options market may be proven in the short-term to have underestimated kiwi strength.

    Heads up: On Wednesday, the FOMC will release its decision on interest rates and with the Fed expected to hold pat on rates, focus will be on the policy statement and hints as to what the central bank will do at the meeting in September.

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  2. #52
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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: 5-Month Support Line Broken

    The New Zealand Dollar broke below trend line support guiding the move higher against its US cousin since mid-May, hinting a significant reversal is in the works. The move lower may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming RBNZ monetary policy announcement.

    NZDUSD Technical Analysis-nzdusd-h4-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    The next layer of significant support comes in at 0.7276, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A daily close below that opens the door for a challenge of the 50% level at 0.7188. Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% Fib at 0.7384 paves the way for a retest of the 14.6% retracement at 0.7450.

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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Aiming to Test Below 0.72 Figure

    The New Zealand Dollar resumed the downtrend started in late July against its US cousin after a brief consolidative pause, hitting the lowest level in a month. Resumption was triggered after US retail sales data topped consensus forecasts, sending the greenback broadly higher (as expected).

    NZDUSD Technical Analysis-nzdusd-d1-alpari-international-limited-2.png


    From here, a daily close below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7188 opens the door for a test of the 61.8% level at 0.7101. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 38.2% Fib at 0.7276 sees the next upside barrier at 0.7384, marked by the 23.6% retracement.

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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Down Trend Boundaries Take Shape

    The New Zealand Dollar looks to be tracing out a choppy down trend after completing a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern, signaling a top in place against its US cousin. The move lower is confined within an emerging falling channel originating in mid-to-late August.

    NZDUSD Technical Analysis-nzdusd-d1-alpari-international-limited.png


    Near-term support is now at 0.7163, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that opening the door for another test of the August 31 low at 0.7132. Alternatively, a daily close above 0.7264 that takes out the channel top and the September 5 high exposes the 38.2% Fib retracement at 0.7295 next.

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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Topping Pattern Undone. Now What?

    The New Zealand Dollar has seemingly invalidated a bearish Head and Shoulders chart formation against its US namesake but scope for recovery may be limited. Polling data ahead of the general election on September 23 pushed prices higher but gains might prove corrective in the context of a longer-term decline.
    Sizing up current positioning, a daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7307 opens the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7415. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% Fib at 0.7240 paves the way for another challenge of the August 31 low at 0.7132.

    NZDUSD Technical Analysis-nzdusd-d1-alpari-international-limited.png


    The short NZD/USD trade from 0.7230 has been stopped out. The tepid move higher from the August 31 low may yet amount to a bearish Flag pattern preceding continuation of the decline from the July 27 swing top. Confirmation is absent for now however, arguing against re-entering short at this time.

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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Kiwi Dollar Back on the Offensive

    The New Zealand Dollar invalidated would-be a down trend resumption signal to try its luck above 0.73 against its US counterpart once more. Recent gains may yet prove to be corrective, but sellers have struggled to sustain momentum ahead of the upcoming general election on September 23.

    NZDUSD Technical Analysis-nzdusd-h4-alpari-international-limited-2.png


    The short NZD/USD trade activated at 0.7219 has been stopped out. Prices are now too close to resistance to make entering long viable from a risk/reward perspective while the absence of a clear-cut bearish reversal signal argues against re-entering short. On balance, that makes the sidelines seem most attractive.

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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: NZ Dollar Ready to Turn Higher Again?

    The New Zealand Dollar put in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern, hinting that a reversal higher against its US counterpart may be in the works. Interestingly, the currency seems to be finding strength despite continued political uncertainty after an inconclusive general election.

    NZDUSD Technical Analysis-nzdusd-h4-alpari-international-limited.png


    Near-term resistance is in the 0.7132-40 area (August 31 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with a daily close above that opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7196. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% Fib at 0.7105 paves the way for another challenge of resistance-turned-support at 0.7054.

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