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EURUSD Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on EURUSD Technical Analysis within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; The Euro posted the largest daily gain in two months against the US Dollar, clearing the swing high set in ...

          
   
  1. #71
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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Hits 30-Month High. Now What?

    The Euro posted the largest daily gain in two months against the US Dollar, clearing the swing high set in early August and hinting the rising trend launched in mid-April is resuming. The move higher follows the currency pair’s completion of a bullish Flag chart pattern, as expected.

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp-2.png


    From here, a daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1964 opens the door for a challenge of the 50% level at 1.2057. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% Fib at 1.1848 paves the way for a retest of the August 17 swing low at 1.1662.

    Current positioning does not seem to offer an actionable trade setup. Prices are too close to immediate resistance to justify getting long from a risk/perspective whereas the absence of a defined bearish reversal warns that taking up the short side is premature. On balance, staying flat seems most prudent for now.

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  2. #72
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    EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: Resolution of Range on Its Way

    The reaction to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday may dictate which way the euro heads for the foreseeable future.” That was indeed the case for the week in terms of ‘tug-of-war’ as both top and bottom-side levels proved even further to be formidable to both sides of the market. The reaction to a directly hawkish Fed came just as the euro had been edging higher along the underside of a trend-line on the 4-hr chart. The sharp move lower quickly found support on the April trend-line where a bounce ensued on the two days to conclude the week where the euro ended up closing unchanged Friday.

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-h4-alpari-international-limited.png


    Something has to give at this point – either a strong breakout to the top-side or a clean slice through the April trend-line. Then we can likely expect momentum to pick up. It won’t be long before top and bottom-side thresholds intersect, and with a few more sessions of the same ole back-and-forth trading that will be the case. A ‘head-and-shoulders’ (H&S) formation is still in the works with the lower close on Friday. If we continue to jostle around it would be a welcomed event as pressure would be pent up into a wedge formation, leading to a potentially explosive move. The trend suggests a break higher, but with these type of funneling situations it is wise to wait for a break. A breakout above the 9/8 swing-high at 12092 will bring into focus the June 2010 monthly closing print at 12236, while an April trend-line break will quickly find 11825 to contend with (H&S neckline, a break below will confirm pattern), but not likely hold given the growing importance of the trend-line. On the downside in the event of a break, the area between 11700/11600 will come into focus as support.

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  3. #73
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    EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

    Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
    Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

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  4. #74
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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Down Trend Remains Intact

    The Euro has mounted a spirited recovery against the US Dollar after finding support near the 1.17 figure but the dominant trend bias still favors weakness. Near-term positioning continues to be defined by a series of lower highs and lows, painting recent gains as corrective (at least for now).

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    From here, a daily close above the 1.1900 figure (trend line, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion) opens the door for a challenge of the 1.2041-70 area (38.2% level, August 29 high). Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% expansion at 1.1812 exposes the 1.1711-21 zone (38.2% Fib retracement, October 5 close).

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    EUR/USD Weekly Technical Analysis: Euro Topping Pattern in Sight

    The outlook for EURUSD heading into last week was for a bounce to develop, but that was all it was expected to be – a bounce. And now with resistance standing in the way and a broad topping formation dating back to early-August coming further into view, we’re ready to shift into reverse. The area from 11825 to 11880, as we noted a week ago, is viewed as a fairly formidable area of resistance. Should we see resistance hold as reliable and a decline soon develop, the ‘right shoulder’ of a ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern could become cemented.

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    Support on weakness will come in at the neckline of the pattern, which arrives near the monthly low at 11669. Given the lack of recent volatility a break below there may not develop in the days ahead, but if we see a closing bar below the ‘neckline’ of the formation then a much broader move lower is expected. For now, though, the ‘neckline’ will be viewed for what it is – support. A strong push beyond the 11880/910 area will be needed if the bounce is to potentially develop into something more meaningful.

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  6. #76
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    EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Euro Price Pattern Colliding with ECB

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-w1-alpari-international-limited.png


    The timing of the nearly completed pattern and next week’s highly anticipated ECB meeting is certainly intriguing. It’s the type of clash or confluence between the technical posturing and a fundamental catalyst which could set into motion one-way trade for the foreseeable future. It appears, though, that a move higher will be the tougher road given the long-term levels in place from 2010-2012. On the other hand, a confirmed break of the ‘neckline’ should offer up the cleaner trade.

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  7. #77
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    EUR/USD Grinds Higher - 1.1662 Key Level

    EUR/USD Forecast - Still in Triangle (H4)

    Though we cannot say for sure which of the patterns we are in, I am leaning towards a continuation of a fourth wave triangle. The triangle pattern implies EUR/USD remains supported above 1.1662 and moves into the 1.19 handle, possibly as high as 1.20.

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-h4-alpari-international-limited.png


    If the fourth wave was a flat pattern and if the flat has previously ended then it implies we are travelling higher in the fifth and final wave. Under this scenario, EUR/USD likely breaks above 1.20 and may move as high as 1.22.

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  8. #78
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    EUR/USD Weekly Technical Analysis: More Euro Selling Ahead

    For starters, we may very well see a bounce and retest of the neckline around the 11670-threshold. Retesting the ‘neckline’ is a fairly common occurrence and can offer traders a spot to establish (or add to) short positions. We may even see a stronger bounce develop back above resistance, but is likely to prove short-lived if the topping formation is to exert downward pressure. At this time, it will require a move above the trend-line running down off the September high and overtaking of Thursday’s sharp sell-off to bring pause to last week’s break.

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    Looking lower, there is support not far below at the lower parallel tied to the trend-line off the September high. After this minor level of support, nothing meaningful arrives until 11429, 11366, 11298, and the 200-day MA (currently 11243, but rising). The ‘measured move target’(MMT) clocks in at ~11240. The ‘MMT’ is calculated by simply subtracting the height of the pattern (head to neckline) from the neckline. It’s a symmetry-based target.

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  9. #79
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    Short Term EUR/USD Pattern Hints at Bounce to 1.17

    On an intraday basis, we can identify an impulse wave lower. Impulse waves can make up larger impulse waves or they can be embedded in the sub-structure of a corrective wave. Regardless of the larger pattern EUR/USD is building, we can count the five wave impulse as completed. The Relative Strength Index divergence on the 4 hour chart is consistent with a fifth wave. Therefore, the higher probability move is a bounce back to 1.17.

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-h4-alpari-international-limited.png


    Bottom line, the higher probability EUR/USD move is a bounce higher towards 1.17. Depending on the structure higher will then begin to eliminate the continued bullish pattern or if the bearish resolution prevails.

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  10. #80
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    EUR/USD Weekly Technical Analysis: Euro Shorts Getting Sweaty Palms

    A lot of noise was made when EUR/USD broke the ‘neckline’ of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ top, and we were indeed onboard with what was presented to us as a valid confirmation of the three-month pattern. However, last week’s surge pushed the euro well above the ‘neckline’ and the trend-line running down off the September high. The combination of technical breaches significantly decreases the likelihood of the ‘H&S’ pattern still holding any real weight. One could say the formation isn’t fully wrecked until we see the euro trade above the ‘right shoulder’, but with the sturdy trend-line broken along with the ‘neckline’ the probability of the formation becoming fully invalidated rose sharply last week.

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    This doesn’t mean EUR/USD is in the clear for higher prices just yet, though. The downtrend off the September high remains intact for now with the series of lower-lows and lower-highs still in place. It’s possible the Wednesday reversal-day marked the next lower-high in the sequence. This makes that particular day, and even more importantly, the area around 11876 so crucial. It’s the 2010 low, which is why it has received so much attention in recent months as both support and resistance. Strong clearance above will be needed before the euro can run. If we see a solid close above, preferably into the 11900s, the area surrounding the 2012 lows between 12000/100 or higher will come into focus.

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