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EURUSD Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on EURUSD Technical Analysis within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; The Euro has paused to digest losses after touching the lowest level in a month against the US Dollar but ...

          
   
  1. #91
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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Eyes Support Below 1.22 Figure

    The Euro has paused to digest losses after touching the lowest level in a month against the US Dollar but overall positioning hints further weakness is ahead. The single currency appeared to mark a top below the 1.26 figure last week having broken the series of higher highs and lows set from early January.

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    From here, a daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2162 opens the door for a challenge of the 1.2046-70 area (50% level, resistance-turned-support). Alternatively, a move back above the January 17 high at 1.2323 sees the next major barrier at 1.2538, the January 25 top.

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  2. #92
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    EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Euro Set to Turn Back to the Upside?

    Last week, EUR/USD pulled back from the 2008 trend-line in-line with expectations, continuing the theme of weak one week, strong the next, back to weak again. Will the next sequence play out to the upside in the week ahead, continuing the back-and-forth period indecision?

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-w1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    Giving support at its feet and the overall trend the benefit of the doubt, yes, that looks like the most likely outcome. There lies a short-term trend-line from mid-January crossing under Thursday’s low. That could break, though, which wouldn’t be bearish just yet as there is a much more important line of support not far beneath dating back to May 2016.
    As long as the long-term slope holds, then the euro can still maintain a fairly positive posturing. Slip below, and swing-lows carved out in the last few weeks near 12200 will quickly come under fire, along with the breakout level (high of 2017 at 12092).

    All-in-all, heading into the new week the euro is still given the benefit of the doubt for another push higher, but should levels start breaking on the downside then the 2008 trend-line may have marked an important high, at least in the intermediate-term.

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  3. #93
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    EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Top or Correction

    The question to whether the euro is topping or undergoing a healthy correction of course awaits its answer, but there are a couple of signposts to watch. This coming week could go a long way towards getting closer to our answer. Heading into last week, we were looking for a bounce to eventually stall and turn down, putting in a lower-high from the double-top formed around the 2008 trend-line. Following the ECB and Friday NFPs, the decline off the weekly high looks to have cemented a lower-high.

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    At first glance this could be a bearish development, and while the tone is set for lower prices in the short-term, support in the vicinity of 12150/100 will be quite impactful to the broader outlook. How the euro reacts to support (should it test it) will be telling as to whether the price action dating back to January is corrective or of the topping variety.

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  4. #94
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    EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook: FOMC Ahead

    The euro continues to flip-flop from one week to the next; it’s strong, it’s weak, it’s strong, and so on. What does this mean? Immediately, it means very little as EUR/USD could still be in a topping process around the 2008 trend-line or building a bull-flag setting it up for an eventual continuation of the rally starting last year.

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    Either way, we need to wait for confirmation before committing ourselves too strongly. The topping scenario points to a lower-high having been carved out the week before last, and from here we should see the euro weaken towards the April trend-line and 2017 high just under 12100. From that point is where it could get interesting. A top would obviously imply that those levels won’t hold and a broad decline will commence.
    However, a hold of the aforementioned support levels keeps the bull-flag scenario in play. If this is the case, it could take out until next month, possibly longer, before making good on a bullish breakout from the pattern and beyond the 2008 trend-line.

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  5. #95
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    EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Life inside a range

    Heading into last week the euro was set up to rally from a confluence of support, but the power at which it did so was uninspiring. While the 2008 trend-line in the mid-12400s was targeted, it was hardly surprising to see momentum stall as the range since January persists. Life inside a range can be difficult, which is why from a tactical standpoint we continue to look to fading price at the perimeter and avoid new entries altogether in the middle. This will be a theme we continue to abide by until market conditions change.

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-d1-just2trade-online-ltd.png


    The good news is market conditions will change. When they are ready, some patience may be required. But with the trading range for the past three months ranking as one of the tightest in the euro’s existence, something has to give likely sooner rather than later.

    From a tactical standpoint this coming week, we’ll look to those perimeter levels and how the market responds to any touches. A bullish or bearish reversal will have attention on trades back towards the other side of the range, while clean breaks will be our cue to abandon a fade-trade mentality and look for momentum to finally pick up.

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  6. #96
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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Long-Term Down Trend

    The Euro is struggling to find lasting direction against the US Dollar but longer-term positioning continues to argue for a broadly bearish trend bias. Still, the medium-term view carries bullish elements that may yet carry potent supportive implications. On the monthly chart, prices are perched squarely at the top of a falling trend channel defining the way lower for nearly a decade. A cluster of critical swing lows that served as support from 2008 to 2012 before finally being broken in 2014 has been recast as resistance, reinforcing the barrier capping gains.

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-w1-fx-choice-limited.png


    From a tactical perspective, opting to keep in play the second half of a short EUR/USD trade from 1.2407 seems prudent after partial profit was booked on hitting the trade’s first objective. Confirmation of the Triangle on a close above 1.2448 would also invalidate the position’s underlying logic, triggering a stop-loss.
    In the meantime, the series of lower highs set from the double top below the 1.26 figure continues to hold and risk/reward parameters suggest there is room to wait and see if the weight of the long-term down trend will prevail. If it does, scale-up opportunities will be actively pursued.

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  7. #97
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    EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook

    The EUR/USD range is certainly testing traders’ patience, but those who remain disciplined and keep their powder dry are likely to be presented with a momentum-move relatively soon. Ranges don’t last forever. This is one of the tightest in the euro’s existence and getting tighter as price is wedging up into a triangle. A resolution is closing in.
    This coming week we have the ECB on Thursday, but there isn’t any grand expectation for it to be a market-moving event. However, as per usual, expect the unexpected; you never know what the last grain of sand will be to collapse the pile (in this case, a breakout in either direction). Regardless of what the catalyst is – big, small, expected, unexpected, of the technical variety – when the range/wedge is finally broken a sizable move should begin.

    EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-h8-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    In either event, the move should be relatively large, with the size of the pattern pointing to about a 400-pip drive higher or lower upon a breakout. It’s always possible we see a fake-out breakout followed by a reversal in the opposite direction, but we’ll first run with what is presented to us and adjust accordingly, if need be.

    For those looking for short-term ‘fade-trades’ off levels, a strategy we’ve been highlighting in recent weeks, the risk/reward profile is quickly diminishing with price action tightening up. At this juncture, waiting for a breakout appears to be the most prudent play.

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