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USDJPY Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on USDJPY Technical Analysis within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Daily 4 of the last 6 days have seen time below December low (112.87), including 2 closes. Even so, USD/JPY ...

          
   
  1. #101
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    USD/JPY December Low is Bears’ Kryponite

    Daily

    USDJPY Technical Analysis-usdjpy-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    4 of the last 6 days have seen time below December low (112.87), including 2 closes. Even so, USD/JPY needs to establish above the 114.80s (12/1 high and December FOMC low) in order to suggest that the month long (and YTD) downtrend is no longer.


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  2. #102
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    US Dollar Turns to a Sell versus the Japanese Yen

    USDJPY Technical Analysis-usdjpy-h4-alpari-international-limited.png


    USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.47 as 60% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.14; 47% of open positions were long. Long positions are 33.5% higher than yesterday and 2.8% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 20.5% lower than yesterday and 0.6% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 4.7% higher than yesterday and 6.7% above its monthly average.
    We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDJPY may continue lower. The trading crowd has flipped from net-short to net-long from yesterday but unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

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  3. #103
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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Avoid The Low VIX Trap For Buying JPY

    We noted in the recent article title, USD/JPY Technical Analysis: An Intermarket and Technical Powderkeg, that there is a lot going on behind the scenes that could cause USD/JPY to move and move big. Another positively correlated market is UST Yields, which have been unable to breakout higher (bond prices pushed lower) but have received news that the Fed appears ready to hike multiple times in 2017 as they are sitting near the targets of both mandates of price stability (inflation at 2%) and full employment.

    USDJPY Technical Analysis-usdjpy-w1-alpari-international-limited.png


    Many traders may look at these events and think that we’re about to see a breakout in the VIX and that the S&P at all-time highs means that a crash is imminent. While the future is unknown by definition, one should be a caution to attribute a fixed outcome to the future as the VIX seems to show less fear than in times past. If this is correct, we could continue to see the SPX500 push higher alongside USD/JPY finding upside traction.

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  4. #104
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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Retail Buyers Load In Before Trump Speech

    JPY strength continues into the close of February and in anticipation of President Trump’s speech that will be analyzed for details on the timing of stimulus that could revive the reflation trade. There is a strong positive correlation to yields of US Treasuries and USD/JPY and a clear message from President Trump that inflationary inducing policies are on their way would likely help boost USD/JPY. Lack of details could keep the market on its current course of giving back-post election gains, most notably in JPY crosses. An additional fundamental note worth considering is that March is the last month of the Japanese Fiscal Year, which may lead to further JPY demand in the coming weeks from Japanese accounts that could push USD/JPY lower.

    USDJPY Technical Analysis-usdjpy-d1-alpari-international-limited.png


    As of Tuesday, the Japanese Yen is the strongest currency in G8 FX on a relative basis, when analyzed on an H4-chart against a 200-DMA. From a momentum perspective, it’s difficult to tell when the momentum will stall. Traders who track momentum can look to RSI(5) on the Daily Chart to see if a higher low in RSI(5) aligns with the chart support of the Ichimoku Cloud and Andrew’s Pitchfork drawn from the closing low of last Summer. The 100-DMA also aligns with the Ichimoku Cloud base at 111.74.


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  5. #105
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    Technical Weekly: USD/JPY 115.50-116.00 is a Clear Trading Barrier

    USD/JPY
    Weekly

    USDJPY Technical Analysis-usdjpy-w1-alpari-international-limited.png


    USD/JPY has turned up within its channel but preference remains for sideways trade. There are a few reasons for wanting to fade strength and buy weakness (range trade), chief among them is the fact that the 13 week average is flat and price levels are well defined. Generally speaking, 115.50-116.00 has been important on both sides of the market since December 2014. As long as price is below the level, the zone is resistance.

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  6. #106
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    USDJPY Free Forex Signals

    CURRENCY
    BUY FROM
    STOP LOSS
    TAKE PROFIT
    TAKE PROFIT2
    TRADE STATUS
    USDJPY
    112.61
    111.55
    113.15
    116.65
    RUNNING




    USDJPY Technical Analysis-1a4eb2cb193d428187d6f0137a0b842e.png

  7. #107
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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: JPY to 2017 Highs vs USD, Atop SW Ranking

    JPY strength, alongside EUR strength, has become the lead story after the Federal Reserve’s Dovish Hike in mid-March. On Wednesday, the Japanese Yen surged to the highest level (which took USD/JPY lower) of 2017, and it’s uncertain what would stop the trend. The low on Thursday morning was 110.63, but there is scope for a move to the 50% retracement of the post-election rally should JPY strength continue, which looks to be developing from the JPY money markets.

    USDJPY Technical Analysis-usdjpy-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    Japanese Money markets via, the 3-month JPY LIBOR have risen more aggressively after the Dovish-Hike than USD LIBOR. The decreasing premium has aligned with JPY strength against the USD. While the BoJ is not expected to give the Fed a run for the mosthawkish central bank, a decreasing premium could continue to boost JPY against USD should the trend continue.

    The focus should now be on signs of continuation that a breakdown from Bear Channel support may open up a move toward 110/108 on JPY strength, which aligns with the 50, & 61.8% retracement of the post-election price range.

    Despite the bearish tone, a trade above 114.48 would show an overlapping price structure that would negate a near-term Bearish view. Until then, we’ll keep an eye for a price break of channel support given the larger environment that may support pending JPY strength and USD weakness.

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  8. #108
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    USD/JPY Rally Fails in Middle of Former Congestion

    Daily

    USDJPY Technical Analysis-usdjpy-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    The former level is being tested now and January lows near 112.60 still present a hurdle.” USD/JPY ended up rolling over between 111.60 and 112.60 (high was 112.20). The rally failing in the middle of congestion doesn’t bode well for near term upside but price is still hanging on to a parallel. Failure to gain traction now (above this parallel) opens up 108.55.

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  9. #109
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    USD/JPY Extends Higher Into Confluence of Resistance Ahead of BoJ

    USD/JPY has broken higher by nearly 4% from the April 17 low at 108.13. If you look at the chart below, you can see that the price was already extended lower and a rebound was due. Since then, we’ve had a run higher in specific risky assets like equity and an unwind of bearish EUR positions, which has lifted EUR/JPY higher by ~6.3% in the sametimeframe that USD/JPY has moved higher by ~4%.

    USDJPY Technical Analysis-usdjpy-d1-g-e-b.png


    Thursday will provide the April Bank of Japan meeting, which is expected to leave rates unchanged and use conservative language on expected inflation has given the stubborn JPY and unsteady commodity prices. The driver for USD/JPY in addition to JPY shorts being pulled off after the first round of the French election is the Tax reform plans announced in the US, which has helped lift the yields as the Federal Reserve is in their quiet period.

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  10. #110
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    Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: RSI a Warning Signal Near Highs

    The Nikkei 225 has made its highs for the year in the past week. Indeed, it is now loitering around peaks not seen since the end of 2015.

    From such a lofty peak there’s only one question investors care about, no matter what the asset: can it stay here?
    Well, the technical signs are rather mixed as you’d expect. But they’re by no means universally gloomy.
    For one thing, the current thrust higher from April 17 has quite convincingly broken a notable down-channel in place since March 13. In the 21 trading sessions since that break the index has managed 13 daily gains and only seven (modest) losses on the way to current highs.

    USDJPY Technical Analysis-japancash-d1-fx-choice-limited.png


    Moreover, the last time the index got up to these levels, it only stayed there for about twelve trading sessions before collapsing in exhaustion. This was back in 2015. This time it has already occupied the heights around 199800 for eight trading days. So, a weekly close around current levels and range trading into next week would be a pretty good sign for those worried that history will repeat itself.

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