Weekly Outlook: 2017, December 17 - December 24

The US dollar was on the back foot but managed to climb back in a busy week. As we enter the last week before the holidays, how will currencies make their last-minute adjustments? GDP data from the US, the UK, and Canada stand out. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

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1. US housing data: Tuesday, 13:30. Note that for a meaningful effect, both figures need to go in the same direction. In some cases, one surprises to the upside and the other to the downside, offsetting each other.
2. US Existing Home Sales: Wednesday, 15:00. Another advance is on the cards now: 5.54 million.
3. New Zealand GDP: Wednesday, 21:45. A slightly slower rate is on the cards now: 0.6%.
4. Japanese rate decision: Thursday, early in the morning. The Bank of Japan seems to be the only central bank in the developed world not to take a hawkish turn. They keep on buying bonds in full-force. No change is expected now, as we reach the end of the year.
5. US final GDP: Thursday, 13:30. The third and final read is expected to confirm this growth rate, the second consecutive quarter of over 3% GDP growth.
6. US durable goods orders: Friday, 13:30. The data impacts Q4 growth projections.
7. US Core PCE: Friday, 13:30.
8. Canadian GDP: Friday, 13:30.
9. US new home sales: Friday, 15:00.

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EUR/USD made a move to the upside but eventually failed to stay there and retreated amid the ECB meeting. What’s next? Final inflation figures and a key German survey stand out. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

Attachment 30007

1. Final CPI: Monday, 10:00. A confirmation of these figures is on the cards now.
2. German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 9:00. A small tick up to 117.6 is forecast now.
3. German PPI: Wednesday, 7:00. A more modest rise of 0.2% is predicted now.
4. Current Account: Wednesday, 9:00. After +37.8 billion in September, the surplus for October carries expectations for a narrower 33.4 billion.
5. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Wednesday, 7:00. A positive score of 1.6 was seen in November, above expectations. Yet another improvement is projected: 2.1 for December.
6. Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 15:00.
7. German GfK Consumer Climate: Friday, 7:00. A score of 10.7 was reported in this survey back in November and a minor increase to 10.8 is on the cards for December.
8. French Consumer Spending: Friday, 7:45. The fall is seen as temporary as a jump of 1.5% is on the cards now.

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