Weekly Outlook: 2017, November 26 - December 03

The US dollar was on the back foot in the week of Thanksgiving and now we are back to business with a busy week. A mix of housing data, inflation figures, and an update on GDP stand out Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

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1. US New Home Sales: Monday, 15:00. A drop to 627K is predicted.
2. Bill Dudley speaks, Tuesday, 00:00. The outgoing president of the New York Fed will speak in California and may clarify the Fed’s stance on inflation after the dovish meeting minutes. Dudley used to be a dove but has expressed optimism in recent months. Is a December rate hike still on the cards? Probably. But in 2018, everything is possible. Dudley will also speak on Wednesday at 13:30, but the first weekly appeance is more important.
3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. A slide to 123.9 is on the cards now.
4. US GDP (second release): Wednesday, 13:30. An upgrade to 3.3% is predicted given the upbeat updates for the third quarter.
5. Janet Yellen testifies, Wednesday, 14:00. The outgoing Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify in Washington. Her recent worries that weak inflation is not transitory and the dovish meeting minutes set the ground for her testimony. Has she changed her mind on the December rate hike? Once again, the probability is low, but a softer stance in 2018 by her successor Powell is likely. The focus remains inflation.
6. Euro-zone inflation: Thursday, 10:00. Healine inflation is expected to bounce to 1.6% and core inflation to tick up to 1%.
7. US Core PCE Price Index: Thursday, 13:30. Month over month, a rise of 0.2% is projected.
8. Canadian jobs report Friday, 13:30.
9. Canadian GDP: Friday, 13:30.
10. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. A small slide to 58.4 is on the cards.

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