Weekly Outlook: 2017, November 12 - November 19

The US dollar was somewhat on the backfoot in a relatively slow week. Will it continue sliding? The upcoming week features the all-important inflation and retail sales figures from the US as well as housing data and more. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

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1. FOMC’s Harker talks: Monday, 00:10. Philly Fed President Patrick Harker will speak early in the week and can have an outsized impact due to low liquidity.
2. German GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. A revised figure for the all-European number will be influenced by this publication.
3. UK inflation: Tuesday, 9:30. 3.1% is forecast now.
4. Yellen, Draghi, Carney, and Draghi speak Tuesday, 10:00. The governors of the US FED, the ECB, the BOE and the BOJ will all speak at a panel at the ECB’s conference in Frankfurt. The topic is communication, which has been an important part of central banks’ policies. Any comments about these all-important CBs policies could impact the USD, EUR, GBP, and the BOJ. Draghi will also speak on Friday at 8:30, but the panel with his peers on Tuesday is more important.
5. US PPI: Tuesday, 13:30. Headline PPI is expected to rise by 0.1% and core PPI by 0.2%.
6. Japanese GDP: Tuesday, 23:50. A slower growth rate of 0.4% is projected now.
7. US CPI: Wednesday, 13:30. Headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% m/m and core CPI by 0.2% m/m.
8. US retail sales: Wednesday, 13:30.
9. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 00:30. An increase of 18.9K is estimated and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 5.5%.
10. FOMC’s Brainard talks: Thursday, 14:30. Lael Brainard is a permanent voter at the FOMC. She does not make many public appearances and her opinions certainly matter. Her speech at Ann Arbor could provide hints about future monetary policy.
11. US housing data: Friday, 13:30. Small rises are likely now: building permits to 1.25 million and housing starts to 1.19 million.

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EUR/USD managed to tick up amid OK data from Europe and weakness in the US dollar. GDP data stands out in a busier week. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

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1. German GDP (preliminary): Tuesday, 7:00. The so-called “locomotive” of the euro-zone has enjoyed a growth rate of 0.6% q/q in the second quarter of 2017. Q3 should be similar.
2. German CPI (final): Tuesday, 7:00. The final read will likely confirm this number.
3. German WPI: Tuesday, 7:00. Prices at the wholesale level eventually reach the consumers.
4. Italian GDP (preliminary): Tuesday, 9:00. The number for Q3 could be better.
5. Flash GDP: Tuesday, 10:00.
6. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. The all-European number stood at 26.7 points.
7. Industrial Production: Tuesday, 10:00. A drop is on the cards now.
8. French Final CPI: Wednesday, 7:45. The data will probably be confirmed now.
9. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 10:00. A rise to 21.6 billion was recorded in August and a similar figure is probable now.
10. CPI (final): Thursday, 10:00.
11. Current Account: Friday, 9:00. The 19-country currency bloc had a wide surplus of 33.3 billion euros in August, reflecting a widening surplus. Similar to the narrower trade balance publication, Germany’s contribution is crucial.

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GBP/USD was looking for a new direction after that dovish hike from the BoE and as Brexit talks are trying to get out of the ditch. The upcoming week features three top-tier publications: inflation, jobs, and retail sales.

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1. Inflation report: Tuesday, 9:30. The weakness of the British pound following the EU Referendum last year is the main contributor to higher prices.
2. Jobs report: Wednesday, 9:30. Weak wages will probably take center-stage once again.
3. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 14:30. A drop of 0.1% was reported in August. We will now receive the data for September.
4. Retail sales: Thursday, 9:30. After three upbeat months, the volume of sales slipped by 0.8% in September, causing a slide in the pound. Are consumers becoming more sensitive to higher prices? The updated data for October also feeds into Q4 GDP.

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