Weekly Outlook: 2017, October 15 - October 22

The greenback was unable to hold onto its rally as weak inflation continues weighing. What’s next? We will hear some Fed reactions and also a wide variety of figures from all over the world Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

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1. Janet Yellen talks: Sunday, 13:00, before markets open. The Chair of the Fed will address a forum of the G-30 and may provide some hints about the next moves coming from the central bank. She will have an opportunity to respond to the inflation figures.
2. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. The data for August showed an annual rise of 2.9%, which is quite rapid. A rise to 3% is expected.
3. Bill Dudley talks: Wednesday, 12:00. Dudley is, in effect, No. 2 in the Fed, as Vice Chair Stanley Fischer is stepping down. He has been quite upbeat about the economy, contrary to his previous dovish stance. Like Yellen, he will have an opportunity to comment on the inflation data.
4. US housing data: Wednesday, 12:30. Building permits are projected to tick down to 1.25 million while housing starts are forecast to remain unchanged.
5. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 00:30. The unemployment rate stood at 5.6% and no change is on the cards now.
6. Chinese GDP: Thursday, 2:00. The publication comes as the Chinese Communist Party convenes for its twice a decade Congress. In addition, the country will publish industrial output, retail sales, and other figures.
7. US Existing Home Sales: Friday, 14:00. A level of 5.32 million is expected now.

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Dollar/CAD slipped from the highs in a much-needed correction. The upcoming week’s highlights are the inflation and retail sales reports. What’s next?

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1. Foreign Securities Purchases: Monday, 12:30. A lower number is likely now.
2. BOC Business Outlook Survey: Monday, 14:30. The quarterly report provides an insight on the economy, especially as it is released early in the quarter and comes from the BOC. After a very strong Q2, it will be interesting to see if the report points to a cooldown in the economy.
3. Manufacturing Sales: Wednesday, 12:30. The figure tends to move the loonie.
4. Inflation report: Friday, 12:30. Core CPI remained flat and disappointed last month. The BOC also releases additional core measures: Common CPI stood at 1.5% y/y, the Median at 1.7% and the Trimmed at 1.4%. If they all move in one direction, the loonie will feel it as well.
5. Retail sales: Friday, 12:30. If inflation does not provide big surprises, retail sales can take the lead in moving the C$.

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