Weekly Outlook: 2017, July 09 - July 16

Weekly Outlook: 2017, July 09 - July 16

The US dollar recovered across the board in a busy start to the second half of the year. Apart from further reactions to the NFP, we have all-important inflation, consumption data, and Janet Yellen’s testimony.

Attachment 27621

1. US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, 14:00. The Fed has highlighted this report in the past, giving it importance despite the lag.
2. UK jobs report: Wednesday, 8:30. In May, jobless claims, known as Claimant Count Change, rose by a worrying 7.3K.
3. Janet Yellen testifies Wednesday and Thursday at 14:00. The Fed Chair meets lawmakers and she will undoubtedly talk about the economy. Yellen will then repeat the same statement on Thursday with another set of Q&A. Market impact will likely be stronger on Wednesday.
4. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00.
5. Crude oil inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
6. US PPI: Thursday, 12:30. Core PPI rose by 0.3%, beating expectations.
7. US CPI: Friday, 12:30. Inflation is falling, but the Fed calls it transitory, due to one-off factors.
8. US Retail Sales: Friday, 12:30.
9. US industrial output: Friday, 13:15.
10. US consumer confidence: Friday, 14:00.

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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, July 09 - July 16

EUR/USD corrected its previous gains and dropped within the range. What’s next? The upcoming week features a mix of trade, industrial output, and inflation figures.

Attachment 27622

1. German Trade Balance: Monday, 6:00. The surplus reached 19.8 billion euros in April. The data for May will likely be similar.
2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30.
3. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00.
4. German Final CPI: Thursday, 6:00.
5. French Final CPI: Thursday, 6:45.
6. Trade Balance: Friday, 9:00. Last month, the Euro-zone trade balance surplus almost totally mirrored the German one, standing at 19.6 billion. Once again, the German number will probably drive the total figure higher.

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Weekly USD/JPY Outlook: 2017, July 09 - July 16

Dollar/yen advanced for the fourth week in a row, extending the rise alongside the uptrend support line. Can it continue further to the upside? It is getting closer to the cycle high of 114.30 and the steep uptrend could be hard to sustain.

Attachment 27625

• The upcoming week begins with echoes from the Non-Farm Payrolls report and also the G-20 Summit, including the first meeting between Trump and Putin. The focus then shifts to Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday and also on Thursday. This time, she will undoubtedly talk about monetary policy, moving markets.
• Towards the end of the week, we will get inflation data, that has been quite weak and worrying in the US. Retail sales and consumer confidence will provide a picture of the wider economy.
• In Japan, we will get the current account, PPI, and the revised industrial output data, but none of these moves markets.

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