Weekly Outlook: 2017, March 05 - March 12

Rate decision in Australia and the Eurozone, Employment data from Canada and the US including the ADP report followed by the all-important NFP release.

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• Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The RBA monitors the recent increase in lending to property investors and further data about the economy’s performance to determine its next move.
• US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15.
• US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
• Eurozone rate decision: Thursday, 12:45. The head of the central bank Mario Draghi said the Eurozone economy is stronger, but still fragile and requires more time to rebound. Therefore monetary stimulus may still be raised if required.
• US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Following the positive condition in the labor market together with rising inflation will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month.
• Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30.
• US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: Friday, 13:30. Economists expected an increase of 170,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.7%.

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EUR/USD struggled but eventually chose the lower end of the range, due to USD strength. Will it totally break down or drift back up? The big event of the week is undoubtedly the ECB decision, which also consists of new forecasts.

Attachment 25867

1. Retail PMI: Monday, 9:10.
2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30.
3. German Factory Orders: Tuesday, 7:00. The volatile indicator is not likely to repeat the big bounce.
4. GDP (revised): Tuesday, 10:00.
5. German Industrial Production: Wednesday, 7:00.
6. French Trade Balance: Wednesday, 7:45.
7. Rate decision: Thursday: decision at 12:45, press conference at 13:30. Draghi would prefer to keep the euro low and not to talk about tapering or ending QE. The ECB currently buys 80 billion euros per month, but the amount will be reduced to 60 billion from April and set to run until the end of the year. See the full ECB preview: acknowledging reality or playing it down?
8. German Trade Balance: Friday, 7:00.
9. French Industrial Production: Friday, 7:45.

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