Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 13 - November 20

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GDP data from Japan and Germany, Mario Draghi’s speech, Inflation figure from the UK and the US, Employment data from the UK, Australia and the US, US Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. These are the major events on forex calendar.

1. Japan GDP data: Sunday, 23:50. Japan’s growth in the third quarter is expected to remain at 0.2%.
2. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 15:00, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Rome and in Frankfurt. Market volatility is expected.
3. Eurozone German GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. German GDP is expected to rise 0.3% in the third quarter.
4. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. UK inflation is expected to advance further by 1.1% in October.
5. US Retail sales: Tuesday, 13:30. Retail sales are expected to edge up by another 0.6% in October while core sales are expected to increase by 0.5%.
6. UK Employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. The number of unemployed is expected to rise by 1,900 this time.
7. US PPI: Wednesday, 13:30. Producer prices are expected to rise by 0.3% in October.
8. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
9. Australian employment data: Thursday, 0:30. The employment market is expected to increase by 20,300 new jobs while the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 5.7%.
10. US Building Permits: Thursday, 13:30. The number of permits for new private homes is expected to register a seasonally-adjusted 1.19 million units.
11. US inflation data: Thursday, 13:30. CPI is expected to gain 0.4% in October while the core CPI is forecasted to rise 0.2%.
12. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 13:30. Philly Fed manufacturing index is predicted to register 8.1 in November.
13. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of new jobless claims is expected to reach 257,000 this week.
14. Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 15:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. She may provide clues regarding the Fed’s rate plans in light of the recent win of the republican candidate Donald Trump. Market volatility is expected.

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Attachment 24392

EUR/USD had a volatile week around the US elections and eventually closed lower. Speeches by Draghi, inflation, and GDP data stand. Will the euro continue lower?. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. Industrial Production: Monday, 10:00. A drop of 0.9% is on the cards now.
2. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 15:00. The President of the European Central Bank will speak in Rome, in his home country of Italy. Any comments about the future of the QE program will be closely watched.
3. German GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. Slightly slower growth is expected: 0.3%.
4. Italian GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. Economic output is expected to rise by 0.2%.
5. Flash GDP: Tuesday, 10:00.
6. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. Another rise is expected, up to 7.9 points, reflecting more optimism.
7. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 10:00. Thanks to German exports, the euro-zone enjoys a wide surplus. A small squeeze is on the cards for September: 22.3 billion after 23.3 billion in August.
8. CPI (final): Thursday, 10:00.
9. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 12:30. In the latest ECB meeting in October, the European Central Bank left all policy measures unchanged, but Draghi sounded slightly dovish.
10. German PPI: Friday, 7:00. A rise of 0.3% is expected to follow now.
11. Draghi speaks: Friday, 8:00 Draghi’s second appearance this week could be more meaningful, as he speaks in Frankfurt, where the headquarters of the ECB are located.
12. Current Account: Friday, 9:00. This is expected to grow from 29.7 billion to 31.3 billion this time.
13. Jens Weidmann talks: Friday, 10:30. The President of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, speaks in Frankfurt, in the same event as Draghi.

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EUR/USD M5: 38 pips range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events

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