Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 25 - October 02

Attachment 23415

The Fed came and went and so did the BOJ, leaving a mixed picture after the high tension. Speeches from Yellen and Draghi among others, US Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods orders and GDP data from the US, UK, and Canada, stand out. These are the highlights on forex calendar.

Attachment 23416

1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. Economists’ forecast German business climate will reach 106.3 in September.
2. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 14:00. Market volatility is expected. He may provide more details about how QE will evolve, something he did not do in the post-rate decision presser.
3. Stephen Poloz speaks: Monday, 23:10. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz will give a talk in Washington DC.
4. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. US consumer confidence is expected to reach 98.6 this time.
5. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. Durable orders are expected to decline by 1.0% and core orders are predicted to decrease by 0.5% on August.
6. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. Some analysts claim U.S. crude stockpiles are still too high and prices could come under pressure again.
7. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Thursday, 6:35. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Tokyo. Market volatility is expected.
8. US GDP data: Thursday, 12:30. The final growth rate for the second quarter is expected to be 1.3%.
9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new unemployment claims is expected to be 260,000 this week.
10. FED Chair Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 20:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a talk at the Minority Bankers Forum in Kansas City. Market volatility is expected.
11. Canadian GDP data: Friday, 12:30.

the source

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

• 1.1283 resistance located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
• 1.1122 support level located below Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the possible bearish reversal, Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing, and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the future possible trend as a primary bearish market condition.

If D1 price breaks 1.1122 support level on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price breaks 1.1283 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed with 1.1366 nearest bullish target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

Attachment 23419

• Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1283 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1122 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

Resistance	Support
1.1283	1.1122
1.1366	N/A

SUMMARY : bullish
TREND : ranging near bearish reversal