Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 11 - September 18

Attachment 23182

The US dollar had a rough back-to-school week, but it made a comeback later on. Inflation data in the UK and the US, GDP data in New Zealand; rate decisions in the UK and employment data in the UK and Australia stand out. These are the top events on FX calendar.

1. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. Economists expect CPI to rise further to 0.7% this time.
2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Economic sentiment is expected to rise again to 2.8% in September.
3. UK Employment data: Wednesday, 8:30. The number of unemployed is expected to increase by 1,700 in August.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
5. NZ GDP: Wednesday, 22:45. GDP growth in the second quarter is estimated at 1.1%.
6. Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. Analysts expect a job gain of 15,200 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.7%.
7. UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The bank is confident this move will reduce unemployment and improve the economic growth in the UK.
8. US Retail Sales: Thursday, 12:30. Retail sales are expected to decline by 0.1% in August, while the core sales are expected to rise by 0.3%.
9. US PPI: Thursday, 12:30.
10. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 12:30. Philly Manufacturing activity index is expected to reach 1.1 in September.
11. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims is expected to reach 262,000 this week.
12. US Inflation data: Friday, 12:30. CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% in August, while core CPI is estimated to gain 0.2%.
13. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve slightly to 91 in August.

the source

Daily price is on secondary rally within the primary bullish market condition: price broke one of Senkou Span line B of Ichimoku indicator to above for the ranging rally to be located inside Ichimoku cloud.

Attachment 23186

• The price is testing Senkou Span A line of Ichimoku indicator to above together with 1.3113 resistance level to be reversed to the bullish market condition.
• Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is breaking the price to above for the good possible breakout.
• Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish reversal on ranging way in the near future.

If D1 price breaks 1.2822 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If D1 price breaks 1.3113 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started with 1.3200 level as a nearest daily target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

Attachment 23185

• Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.3113 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.2822 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: bear market rally

Resistance	Support
1.3113	1.2822
1.3200	1.2763

SUMMARY : bear market rally
TREND : bearish