Weekly Outlook: 2016, July 17 - July 24

A very busy week saw the pound stage a recovery but erode the gains while the yen was the back foot. The upcoming week features UK Inflation and employment data, the ECB’s rate decision, US housing figures and more. These are the main events on forex calendar.

Attachment 22357

1. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. Analysts expect policymakers will issue economic stimulus to increase inflation. UK inflation is expected to rise 0.4% this time.
2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Economic sentiment is expected to decline to 8.2 this time,
3. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. US building permits are expected to rise to 1.15m in June.
4. UK Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 8:30. The total number of unemployed is expected to rise by 4,100 in June.
5. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
6. Eurozone Rate decision: Thursday, 11:45. President Mario Draghi said he expects economic growth will continue at a moderate but steady pace.
7. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 12:30. Philly manufacturing index is estimated to rise to 5.1in July.
8. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of jobless claims is expected to rise 271,000.Building Permits.

the source

Daily price is on bearish breakdown to be started on open D1 bar for now: the price is testing 1.1001 support level to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing.

Attachment 22359

• Chinkou Span line is located below the price for the bearish market condition by the breakdown by the direction.
• Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the primary bearish trend to be started after ranging bearish condition.
• Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the primary bearish in the near future.

If the price breaks 1.1001 support level to below on close D1 bar so the bearish trend will be continuing up to 1.0911 level as a target to re-enter.
If the price breaks 1.1186 resistance level to above on daily close bar so the bear market rally will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging bearish within the levels.

Daily price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal zone on the bullish area of the chart within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1375.11 resistance located far above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
• 1305.46 support level located in the beginning fo the secondary correction.

If the price will break 1375.11 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price will break 1305.46 support level so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If price will break 1199.59 support so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition with 1115.31 possible bearish target.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
1375.11	1305.46
N/A	1199.59

Attachment 22387

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1305.46 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1375.11 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

NZD/USD: breakdown with the bearish reversal. The pair is on secondary correction within the primary bullish condition with 0.6950 support level to be testing to below for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition. The price is located within the following key support/resistance levels:

• 0.7292 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud on the primary bullish area of the chart, and
• 0.6950 support level located near Senkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish trend to be started.

There are 2 simple scenarios for the price movement for the week:

• breakdown with the bearish reversal in case the price breaks 0.6950 support on close daily bar,
• or the bullish ranging within the levels.

Chinkou Span line is crossing the price to below on open daily bar for the possible daily breakdown.

Attachment 22457

Resistance	Support
0.7292	0.6950
0.7323	0.6674