Weekly Outlook: 2016, May 22 - May 29

Attachment 21123

The US dollar had a positive week, enjoying support from the Fed. UK and US GDP updates, US durable goods orders and key German surveys stand out. These are the highlights of this week.

1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. A rise to 12.1 is expected now.
2. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. Economists from the IFO institute believe German economic activity will show a 0.6% growth while the second quarter is expected to be weaker with a 0.3% expansion rate. Business sentiment is expected to reach 106.9.
3. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. The BoC is not expected to change its monetary policy this month.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
5. UK GDP data: Thursday, 8:30. The number will likely be confirmed in this publication.
6. US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30. Durable Goods Orders are expected to rise 0.3% in April, as core orders are expected post the same gain.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of weekly claims is expected to decline slightly to 275,000.
8. US GDP data: Friday, 12:30.

the source

Daily price is located near and below Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is breaking 110.38 resistance level for the reversal to the ranging bullish market condition with 111.88 target to re-enter. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bullish reversal, and Trend Strength indicator is estimating the uptrend to be continuing in the near future.

Attachment 21133

If D1 price will break 108.22 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 110.38 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish condition will be started: tghe price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud.
If D1 price will break 111.88 resistance level on close bar so the price will be fully reversed to the bullish market condition located to be above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 111.88 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 108.22 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: rally to reversal

Resistance	Support
110.38	108.22
111.88	1.0520

SUMMARY : ranging

Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud for the bearish market condition: the price is on ranging within 124.16 resistance level and 121.47 support level waiting for the bearish trend to be continuing or to the bullish reversal to be started.

If D1 price will break 121.47 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 124.16 resistance level so the bullish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 124.16 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 121.47 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: ranging bearish

Resistance	Support
124.16	121.47
126.46	N/A

Attachment 21318

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish