Weekly Outlook: 2016, April 03 - April 10

Forecast for The Week - levels for EUR/USD

EUR/USD: bullish with 1.1411 key resistance. Daily price is on primary bullish trend located to be above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA: the price is trying to break 1.1411 key resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.

Attachment 19978

• if the price breaks 1.1411 resistance so the primary bullish trend will be continuing;
• if the price breaks 1.1143 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started;
• if not so the price will be moved within the channel.

Resistance	Support
1.1411	1.1143
N/A	1.0814

Forex Weekly Outlook April 4-8

The US dollar was hit hard by Yelle’s dovish tone and the recovery was limited. Yellen has another opportunity to move the greenback in the upcoming week. In addition, a rate decision in Australia, the US Non-Manufacturing PMI and the FOMC meeting minutes stand out. These are the highlights of this week.

1. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 1:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash unchanged at 2% in March, but hinted it may cut rates in the near future. Governor Glenn Stevens reiterated the downside risks in low inflation noting it may induce the RBA to cut rates. The Employment market also concerns the central bank after a surprise jump in the unemployment rate. Furthermore, global market uncertainty raises fears of future growth. Economists expect the RBA will cut interest rates to 1.5% this year.
2. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 14:00. The U.S. service sector expanded in February reaching 53.4 a bit lower than the 53.5 posted in the previous month. The reading was higher than the 53.2 figure expected by analysts. Business activity index increased to 57.8 from 53.9 the month before. Employment index fell to 49.7 from 52.1 a month earlier, showing the first decline since February 2014. New orders dropped to 55.5 from 56.5. The prices paid index fell to 45.5 from 46.4. US service sector is expected to expand further to 54.1 in March.
3. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. U.S. crude inventories increased 2.3 million barrels in the last week, falling short of the 3.3 million-barrel gain forecasted by analysts. Oil prices were boosted by the weak dollar becoming more attractive to users of the euro and other currencies. OPEC oil output increased in March, amid higher supply from Iran.
4. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. The FOMC minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showed the main topic of concern was the continuing deterioration of global financial and their downside risks to the U.S. economy. On the opposite side, some” members noted that wage pressures had increased. Overall the minutes indicate that an easing in global volatility, together with continued improvement in the domestic labor market and inflation, could bring another rate hike in the following months.
5. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims for unemployment aid edged up unexpectedly last week, but remained below the 300,000 line indicating strong employment market. Claims increased 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 276,000, higher than the 267,000 forecast. The four-week moving average of claims increased by 3,500 to 263,250 last week. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to increase 205,000 this month following a 242,000 gain in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%. Economists expect 271,000 increase in the number of claims this week.
6. Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 21:30. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak in New York at the International House. She may talk about the recent positive employment data and the resilient consumer spending and may also refer to her pessimistic views on Global economy and its downside risks to the US economy. Market volatility is expected.
7. Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Canada’s employment market contracted unexpectedly in February losing 2,300 jobs raising jobless rate to 7.3%. The unemployment rate climbed to the highest level since March 2013 surprising analysts who had forecast Canada would add almost 10,200 jobs. Most of the job cuts were full-time, losing 52,000 jobs during the month. That figure was partially offset by an increase in part-time work.

the source

H4 price is located above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and above SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) for the bullish market condition. The key support/resistance levels for this pair are the following:

• 1.1437 resistance level located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA area in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
• 1.1189 support level located between 100/200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish area.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing.

• If the price will break 1.1437 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
• If price will break 1.1189 support so the bearish reversal will be started.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
1.1437	1.1189
N/A	1.0821

Attachment 20007

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1189 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1437 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

D1 price is located above 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary correction which was started in the end of March this year: the price is breaking symmetric triangle pattern to below for the correction to be continuing. The price is located within the following key s/r reversal levels:

• Fibo resistance level at 0.6965 located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
• 50.0% Fibo support level at 0.6657 located near 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish area of the chart.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing.

Attachment 20018

If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 0.6965 so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price will break 50.0% Fibo support level at 0.6657 from above to below so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Trend:

D1 - correction

H4 price is on bearish condition located fare below Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is on the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

• 83.72 resistance level located on the border between the ranging bearish and the bear market rally, and
• 80.62 support level located far below Senkou Span line on the primary bearish area of the chart.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging bearish trend to be continuing in the near future.

Resistance	Support
83.72	80.62
86.69	N/A

If H4 price will break 80.62 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If H4 price will break 83.72 resistance level so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Attachment 20090

• Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 83.72 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 80.62 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging