Weekly Outlook: 2015, November 22

Forex Weekly Outlook Nov. 23-27

The dollar struggled after the meeting minutes but certainly recovered. US and UK GDP, US Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders stand out . These are the main events on forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week.

Te Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Committee meeting held in October, leaving the door open for a rate hike announcement in December. Investors reacted by increasing the odds for a rate increase next month to 72%. Policy makers were confident that the US economy is strong enough to withstand a modest policy tightening and expect the central bank will succeed to balance between full employment and stable two percent inflation.

German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 9:00. The Volkswagen scandal hardly affected German business optimism in October. The index for German industry and trade inched down to 108.2 points from 108.5 points in September, posting the first drop since June this year. Nevertheless, business outlook continued to rise from 103.3 in September to 103.8 in October, the highest level since June last year. However, current conditions fell from 114.0 to 112.6. Business sentiment is expected to reach 108.3 this time.
US GDP data: Tuesday, 13:30. According to the initial release, the US economy slowed down to an annualized growth rate of 1.5% in Q3 2015, after seeing 3.9% in Q2. In this release, which is the second one, the figure is expected to be upgrade to 2%, still mediocre, but looking better.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. U.S. consumer confidence worsened in October, deteriorated to a three-month low of 97.6. The reading dimmed prospects for a U.S. interest rate hike this year. Analysts expected the index to rise to 103.0 in October. The current conditions Index fell from 120.3 last month to 112.1 in October, while the outlook Index declined to 88.0 from 90.8 in September. U.S. consumer confidence is expected to rise to 99.3 in November.
US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 13:30. Orders for long lasting products continued to weaken in September for the fourth time in five months with orders contracting more than expected, down 1.2% from minus 2.0% in August. Meanwhile core orders excluding transportation declined 0.4% after a downward revised 0.9% decline in August. Automobile orders edged up 1.8% reversing a similar sized decline in August. Analysts expect Durable goods orders to edge up 1.6% in October, while core orders are expected to rise by 0.5%.
US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits declined last week by 5,000 to 271,000, indicating a strong labor market. Claims have remained below the 300,000 threshold for 37 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch in years. The four-week average of claims increased by 3000 to 270,750. Economists expect payrolls will increase by at least 200,000 in November, which will give the Federal Reserve confidence to raise its short-term interest rate at the Dec. 15-16 meeting. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 273,000 this week.
UK GDP data: Friday, 9:30. The first estimate of UK growth in Q2 showed a level of 0.5%. While somewhat lower than previous quarters, this growth rate still pleases policymakers. A confirmation of this level is expected in the second release.

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Weekly Outlook: 2015, November 22 - November 29