Weekly Outlook: 2015, November 08 - November 15

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• "Even if Friday’s US NFP report comes near our below consensus 165k forecast, we see the USD remaining bid. The Fed’s rhetoric suggests they want to get their first hike out of the way."
• "Hence, we may have to see significant data weakness or global markets experiencing another volatility spike to put the Fed off its plans to hike."
• "Should the labour market show surprising strength and this strength include strong wages, then investors will have to assume the Fed will drop its ‘lazy rate hike’ strategy (hiking, but downplaying the significance of the rate hike cycle) as it sees markets pricing in a more aggressive stance."

the source

The US dollar surged across the board as a December rate hike looks very real. Employment data from the UK and Australia, speeches from Mark Carney and Mario Draghi, German GDP data , US Retail sales stand out. These are the main events on forex calendar.

The US Non-Farm Payrolls report for October showed strong growth with a 271,000 payrolls increase following two straight months of lukewarm gains. The unemployment rate declined to a 7-1/2-year low of 5.0%, demonstrating domestic strength. This robust reading may signal the well-awaited rate hike announcement in the Fed’s next meeting in December which was also evident in recent Fed talk. Another encouraging piece of news is the wage gains and robust consumer spending, showing an upbeat picture of the economy on the verge of the fourth quarter.

1. UK Employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. The U.K. labor market continued to improve in the third quarter, posting the lowest unemployment rate since the second quarter in 2008. The unemployment rate stood at 5.4% compared to 5.5% in the three months to July. Wages including bonuses grew 3% indicating a growth trend in the UK economy. However, the number of jobless claims increased 4,600 in September, missing forecasts for a 2,300 contraction. The number pf jobless claims is expected to rise by1,600 this time.
2. Mark Carney speaks: Wednesday, 10:30. BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak in London about theInflation Report released last week. Following the statement Carney suggested interest rates would stay lower for a longer period, hinted they would rise in about two years. He said global growth has weakened since the previous inflation report which could weigh on UK growth. As to inflation forecast, the bank downgraded its growth outlook slightly, to around 2.7% for 2015 from 2.8% in the last report. Mr Carney stated that if rates did not rise until the first half of 2017, inflation is predicted to overshoot its 2% target.
3. Mario Draghi speaks: Wednesday, 13:15. ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak in London. He may provide further information regarding his recent declaration that the ECB is prepared to cut interest rates and step up quantitative easing prevent a renewed economic slump in the Eurozone. Draghi stated that the ECB policymakers would not be in “wait and see” mode, but rather “wait and assess” mode, between now and their policy meeting on 3 December.
4. Australian Employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australia’s employment market contracted 5,100 jobs in September missing forecasts for a 5,000 rise. 13,900 full-time workers were dismissed, while 8,900 part-time jobs were added. The participation rate, fell to 64.9% from 65.0% in August. However, the jobless rate remained steady at 6.2%. Economists expect jobs growth may slow due to soft economic conditions and the jobs growth from the labor services sector will weaken amid less support from housing activity and lower currency. Australia’s labor market is expected add 15,200 jobs while the unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 6.2%.
5. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. US jobless claims were weaker than expected last week, reaching 276,000 after posting 260,000 in the prior week. Analysts expected the number of claims would come to 263,000. However, the number of claims remain low from historical perspective showing solid labor market conditions with previous and continuing unemployment claims, which are around decade’s lows.
6. German GDP: Friday, 7:00. Germany’s economy expanded 0.4% in the second quarter according to August estimates. Exports climbed 2.2% in the three months through June. Private consumption advanced 0.2%, while capital investment contracted 0.4%. Germany faces downturn risks in exports due to the weakness in China, Germany’s third-biggest trading partner. Nevertheless, German manufacturing sector continued to grow and consumer spending remained strong amid record-low unemployment and borrowing costs. Economists expect GDP to grow by 0.3% in the third quarter.
7. US Retail sales: Friday, 13:30. U.S. retail sales registered weak performance in September, rising 0.1%, while expected to gain 0.2%. Excluding autos, core retail sales declined 0.3%. Sales of motor vehicles and auto parts edged up by 1.7%. Gasoline sales, meanwhile, declined 3.2%. Consumer spending is the largest contributor to the U.S. gross domestic product. Weaker consumption means a hit to GDP growth. Retail sales are expected to gain 0.3% in October and Core sales are expected to rise by 0.4%.
8. US PPI: Friday, 13:30. U.S. producer prices plunged in September to their lowest level in eight months amid a decline in prices of energy products. Producer price index fell 0.5%, after being unchanged in August. In the 12 months through September, the PPI dropped 1.1% after declining 0.8% in August. Weak inflation one of the key reasons for the Fed’s reluctance to raise interest rates. Producer prices are expected to grow by 0.1% this time.
9. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00. U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded sharply in October, indicating that the economic recovery remained positive despite headwinds from a strong dollar and weak global demand weighing on the industrial and the manufacturing sectors. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index edged up to 92.1 from 87.2 in September. Analysts expected a lower reading of 88.8. It is a hopeful sign on the outlook for consumer spending. U.S. consumer moral is expected to reach 91.2 in November.

the source

US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Breaks a 12-Year High but is Momentum A Guarantee?
Eight months of congestion have been brought to a dramatic end this past week as the US Dollar mounted an impressive rally in the aftermath of the October labor report.

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD 2015 Rebound to Unravel Further as BoE Lags Behind Fed
GBP/USD stands at risk of extended the decline from the beginning of the month should the key developments coming out of the U.K./U.S. largely boost speculation for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to normalize monetary policy ahead of the Bank of England (BoE).

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Japanese Yen Forecast – Traders Believe USD/JPY Could Rally Further – What Could Change?
The Japanese Yen finally showed signs it might break its long-standing trading range as it fell to multi-month lows versus the resurgent US Dollar.

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Canadian Dollar Forecast – Oil Prices May be Creating an Even Larger Problem for Canada
Just last week we reiterated our bearish forecast for the Canadian Dollar on the basis of expected weakness in Oil prices.

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Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar May Fall Further as Fed, RBA Divergence Deepens
The Australian Dollar looks vulnerable to deeper losses as domestic and external news-flow embellishes the expected divergence between RBA and Federal Reserve monetary policy.

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Gold Forecast – Gold Route to Persist as Stellar NFPs Point to December Hike
Gold prices plunged for a third consecutive week with the precious metal down more than 4.7% to trade at 1088 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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