Weekly Outlook: 2015, November 01 - November 08

US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar to Tap Fed Speakers, NFPs For Another Run at 12 Year High
The Dollar was once again offered the opportunity to make a run on 2015’s highs and move on to levels not seen since 2003.

British Pound Forecast – Post-Fed GBP/USD Rebound at Risk on Dovish BoE, Soft Inflation Report
With GBP/USD largely reversing the decline following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) policy meeting, the pair may continue to face range-bound prices in the week ahead as market attention turns to the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision on November 3.

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Japanese Yen Forecast – Bank of Japan Keeps the Japanese Yen in Tight Range – What Now?
A notable disappointment from the Bank of Japan meant the Japanese Yen and the USD/JPY exchange rate finished the week almost exactly where they began.

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Canadian Dollar Forecast – Oil Prices Could Drive the CAD Lower Before the Recession Ends
The Canadian Dollar continued to slide lower to start the week, furthering the return of the up-trend in USD/CAD led by a precipitous drop in Oil prices.

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Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data Loom
The Australian Dollar is on the defensive, falling for a third consecutive week as an RBA monetary policy announcement and key US employment data loom ahead.

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New Zealand Dollar Forecast – The End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD Higher
The New Zealand Dollar took flight over the month of October. Much relief for NZD Bulls came this week specifically despite an overtly dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand and surprisingly hawkish Federal Reserve.

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Gold Forecast – Gold Pops and Drops on Fed-Prices Target Support Ahead of NFP’s
Gold prices are lower for a second consecutive week with the precious metal down 1.8% to trade at 1142 ahead of the New York close on Friday.


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Credit Agricole: what we’re watching:

Fundmental analysis:

• USD - "Friday’s US labour data should prove constructive enough to keep the Fed on track with considering higher rates in December. As such, we remain in favour of buying USD on dips."
• GBP - "Although next week’s inflation report is likely to confirm rising downside risks to growth and inflation, we believe there is little scope of falling BoE rate expectations from the current levels."
• AUD - "Given more muted price developments and ongoing uncertainty as related to Asia, it cannot be ruled out that the RBA will decide in favour of lower rates. We favour selling AUD rallies."
• NOK - "We see little scope of the Norges Bank turning more dovish next week. The NOK should remain driven by external factors such as oil prices."

Technical analysis:

• EUR/USD - the price is located below YR1 Central Pivot for the bearish market condition with the ranging within S1 Pivot at 1.1337 and S2 Pivot at 1.0672 for crossing 1.0962 support level from above to below. if the price breaks S2 Pivot at 1.0672 so we may see good breakdown possibility with 1.0461 as the next bearish target.

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based on article

EUR/USD looked for a new direction after the big blows eventually closing around the same levels. Final PMIs dominate the first week of November. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Germany’s IFO data came out a bit mixed when looking at the different components, but inflation is on the rise. The debate in the ECB is raging on. In the US, a hint about a December hike from the Fed sent the pair falling and dipping under 1.09, but also in the US, things aren’t that clear, especially as growth is weak. It’s going to get even busier.

1. Manufacturing PMIs: Monday: Spain at 8:15, Italy at 8:45, the final French number at 8:50, the final German number at 8:55 and the final euro-zone figure at 9:00. In September, Markit reported a drop in Spain’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index to only 51.7 points. A small rise to 51.9 is expected. Italy, the third largest economy, saw 52.7 points and also here, an advance to 52.9 is on the cards. Both figures reflect growth – above 50 points. The preliminary figure for France in October stood on 50.7 points. Germany, the largest economy in the continent, saw 51.6 points and the whole euro-zone’s first estimate stood on 52. The final numbers are expected to confirm the initial reads.
2. Spanish Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 8:00. The zone’s fourth largest economy has seen significant advance in its labor market. The monthly changes in unemployment are volatile and depend on seasonality in tourism, but still have an impact. In September, a rise of 26.2K unemployed was recorded. A bigger rise to 70.3K is on the cards.
3. Mario Draghi talks: Tuesday at 19:00, Wednesday at 9:00 and Thursday at 11:45. The president of the ECB hit the euro hard in the recent rate decision and then repeated this stance in a weekend interview. In his three public appearances, the most important one on Wednesday, he may relate to the upbeat inflation figures and perhaps to the exchange rate. Will he provide more details about the tools he wants to use in December? He almost always moves markets.
4. Services PMIs: Wednesday: Spain at 8:15, Italy at 8:45, the final French number at 8:50, the final German number at 8:55 and the final euro-zone figure at 9:00. In September, Spain’s services sector saw robust growth according to Markit: 55.1 points. 55.5 is expected now. Italy was behind with 53.3. In October and 53.7 is now predicted, France was somewhat behind with 52.3 points but Germany surprised according to the initial figure with 55.2 points. The whole euro-zone saw 54.2 points in the first read for October. The last three figures are expected to be confirmed.
5. PPI: Wednesday, 10:00. Producer prices eventually reach the consumer and they continue falling. In August, a drop of 0.8% was seen. A smaller drop of 0.4% is expected.
6. German Factory Orders: Thursday, 7:00. The level of orders dropped in the summer months of July and August, with a slide of 1.8% in August, below expectations. Did September see a rise? +1.1% is predicted.
7. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. Two weeks after Draghi’s drama, we will get to see the data that ECB members had before their eyes, and how worrying it really was.
8. Retail PMI: Thursday, 9:10. In the past 5 months, the retail sector has seen growth according to Markit. A similar figure is on the cards.
9. EU Economic Forecasts: Thursday, 10:00. Once a quarter, the European Commission updates its estimates about growth. Will they continue seeing steady growth or are downgrades expected following the Chinese slowdown? This is an open question.
10. Retail Sales: Thursday, 10:00. While the data is released after similar figures have already been published by Germany and France, the data is of importance. Sales were flat in August. A rise of 0.2% is predicted.
11. German Industrial Production: Friday, 7:00. Industrial output, like factory orders, dropped in August. We may see a rise in September after Augsut’s fall of 1.2%. A rise of 0.6% is on the cards.
12. French Trade Balance: Friday, 7:45. The zone’s second largest economy is experiencing somewhat narrower trade deficits in recent months. The number stood on -3 billion in August. A similar deficit of 3.1 billion is forecast.

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