Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Crude oil prices may continue to push higher ahead of OPEC’s JMMC meeting, on the back of futures curve backwardation, vaccination progress and a notable decline in global cases of Covid-19.

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We believe the new high on that bar, followed by the deep decline prompting a close well below the previous bar’s closing price, shows a very defined reversal pattern. In Japanese Candlestick Terms, this peak rotation created a Dark Cloud Cover pattern – which often represents a critical market top. The continued downward price trending after this pattern confirmed this Japanese Candlestick pattern, which adds greater weight to this Topping pattern.

If Crude Oil continues to rally as US consumer and manufacturing demand continues to increase, then we expect Crude Oil to attempt to rally above $66.68 near the Apex of the Flag/Pennant formation. This would likely prompt a rally above the $68.00 level fairly quickly.

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This "energy transformation" dynamic continues to plot the path toward another $100-plus oil price environment.

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OPEC will likely trim its forecast for 2022 global oil demand in light of increasing challenges around the spread of the Delta variant. OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Energy Information.

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Crude oil recovered ground going into the weekend as supply concerns re-emerge and the war goes on. Have markets seen a base for WTI?

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The price of oil spiked to a fresh yearly high ($130.50) in March. Current market conditions may lead to higher crude prices as expectations for strong demand are met with indications of limited supply.

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The recent rally in the price of oil appears to have stalled ahead of the record high ($147.27) as the rapid rise dampens the outlook for consumption. However, recent data prints coming out of the US suggest demand will remain robust in 2022 amid a downward trend in crude inventories.

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Crude oil prices weakened as a stronger US Dollar and another drop in the S&P 500 undermined the sentiment-linked commodity. All eyes are on US GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge next.

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Oil is likely to remain supported in the short term amid expectations Europe will soon announce a plan for oil imports and bets that the JCPOA nuclear deal will not be reinstated soon.

The daily price is located near and below Ichimoku cloud: if the price breaks Ichimoku cloud to above together with 109 resistance level so the primary daily bullish reversal will be started; alternatively, the price will be on bearish ranging waiting for direction.

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Oil prices could rise in the short term if China begins to dismantle the Shanghai lockdowns and the European Union reaches an agreement among member states to ban Russian oil imports.

In terms of technical analysis, after the recent move, WTI is approaching cluster resistance, spanning from $110 to $111.75, where the May high aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March/April correction. If this hurdle is cleared decisively, bulls could become emboldened to launch on attack on $116.18/$116.65, the next key barrier corresponding to the March 24 swing high and the 61.8% Fib retracement. On further strength, the focus shifts up to the first quarter peak.

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