Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Originally Posted by FXstreet

Attachment 39147

The steep fall in price is due to the lack of sufficient demand and lack of storage given that the production cut has failed to address the supply glut. There is a strong possibility that WTI Crude Oil prices will drop to $10. Yes, I mean $10! And, here is why.

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WTI Crude Oil is zero for now:

Market has recovered from record lows but a clear cut pathway for a sustained rally isn’t here yet.

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The price of oil pulls back from the monthly high ($40.44) even though the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agree to extend the production cuts unveiled at the April meeting, but the ongoing contraction in US production may keep crude prices afloat as output narrows for ten consecutive weeks.

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Crude oil price action has staged a monumental recovery since the commodity traded in negative territory this past April. The rally in oil prices over recent weeks looks largely on the back of two bullish fundamental drivers: an OPEC+ deal to slash supply combined with a welcomed rebound in global energy consumption.

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The price of oil pulls back from a fresh monthly high ($43.78) even though US Crude Inventories contract for six consecutive weeks, and energy prices may continue to consolidate over the coming days as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) gradually rollback the voluntary production cuts in response to COVID-19.
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RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

• Breakdown in Crude Oil sparks talk of sub $30 price targets.
• Initial support likely near $32 to $33.
• Predictive Modeling suggests deeper price lows may be reached before November 2020.

“If our ADL predictive modeling is correct, we will see rotation between $47 and $64 over the next 3+ months before a breakdown in price hits in November 2019. This will be followed by two fairly narrow price range months (December 2019 and January 2020) where oil prices will tighten near $45 to $50. After that tightening, we believe an extremely volatile price move will happen in February through April 2020 that could see oil prices trade as low as $22 and as high as $51 over a two to three-month span.”

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Last week's economic data came out mixed but did push stocks higher. With COVID-19 cases on the rise, including in the White House, this next week's performance will set the stage for the rest of the month. The Viper Report’s Tom Aspray looks at the major markets and the outlook for crude oil.

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Crude oil prices are at risk of breaking lower ahead of the OPEC JMMC meeting on October 19 after the IEA revised down its global demand estimates.

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Sentiment-sensitive crude oil prices may have a volatile week ahead of the highly-anticipated US presidential election and the FOMC rate decision.

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Crude oil prices may continue to push higher on the back of positive vaccine news, a pickup in global demand and the moderate easing of OPEC+ output cuts.

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