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Date : 13th October 2022.
Market Update – October 13 – FOMC Minutes Remain Hawkish – CPI Today.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
*USDIndex – Held 113.00 yesterday and again tested 113.44. Yields cooled from recent highs. (US 10yr at 3.902%). US PPI was hotter than expected (0.4% vs 0.2% & -0.1% prior). FOMC Mins. less Hawkish than many anticipated but far from indicating a pivot anytime soon. “Participants judged that a softening in the labor market would be needed to ease upward pressures on wages and prices.” and “emphasized the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action.”
*The UK’s new fiscal policy remains squarely under threat and the BOE’s Bond-Buying, beyond Friday is still being questioned despite BOE denials. Sterling recovered yesterday but Gilts remain very fragile. US Stocks closed flat, Asian markets lower (Hang Seng -1.13%) & European FUTS also flat.
*EUR – rotates through 0.9700, up from 0.9670 lows but unable to hold over 0.9720.
*JPY – rallied through 146.00 to new 24-year highs yesterday within a few pips of 147.00. 146.85 now.
*GBP – Sterling rallied from a new 11-day low at 1.0923 over 1.1000 to 1.1075. Immense pressure on new PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng to reverse tax cuts or face a major rebellion.
*Stocks – US stocks, were mixed but biased lower on Wednesday and closed down US500 -033%, -11.81 at 3577. MRNA +8.28%, PEPSI +4.18%, VLO +5.02%. US500 FUTS trades at 3586 now.
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*USOil – declined again on global recession worries into $86.25, back to $87.15 now.
*Gold – remained range bound between $1665 support zone and $1675. Trades at $1668 now but remains pressured.
*BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank to $18.8K yesterday trades at $19.1k now.
Today German HICP confirmed at record 10.9% US CPI, US DoE, IEA OMR, Speeches from ECB’s de Guindos & BOE’s Mann.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.30%) rallied from sub 160.00 lows yesterday to 163.25 highs today, before declining into 162.50. MAs declining now, MACD histogram & signal line positive but starting to decline, RSI 54.40 & declining, H1 ATR 0.305, Daily ATR 3.201.
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 14th October 2022.
Market Update – October 14 – Wild, Wild Swings following US CPI, Risks in London Rise.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
*USDIndex – Spiked to 113.80 following hot reading for CORE CPI and then reversed sharply into 112.20 as Stocks staged a record reversal (from -3% to +over 2%) on short covering, technical floors being tested and ? perhaps assumptions that the top is finally in for inflation (Headline fell for 3rd consecutive month). Yields also whipsawed, with at one point, all major maturities above 4%. (US 10yr closed 3.902% & the 2/10 year rate inversion {a sign of recession} sits at 51bp). 75 bp fro Nov 2 fully priced in, and a 71% chance of a further 75bp in December. (This will take hikes since March to 450 bp).
*The UK’s new fiscal policy remains squarely under threat as Chancellor Kwarteng returns from the IMF meetings a day early (last person to do that was the Greek Fin. Min. in 2011 and many are predicting a similar outcome both politically and economically). The BOE’s Bond-Buying programme ends today, uncertainty swirls as tax U-turns become priced in. Sterling rallied and then rallied again, but Gilts remain fragile. Asian markets follow Wall Street higher (Nikkei +3.25% Hang Seng +2.64%) & European FUTS also higher.
*EUR – rotated through 0.9700, down to 0.9632 before rallying to 0.9800.
*JPY – rallied to new 32-year (1990) highs at 147.67 and with no signs of BOJ action! Suzuki and Kishida remain committed to accommodative policy. Trades at 147.35 now.
*GBP – Sterling rallied from .1.1075 to over 1.1300 to 1.1375. Immense pressure on PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng to reverse tax cuts as successors are rumoured and the Tories are 30% behind in opinion polls.
*Stocks – Wall Street dove on the data given the jump in rates and as the market priced in greater risk for a hard landing. The NASDAQ plunged over -3.0%, with the S&P500 over -2.25% lower, and the Dow down almost -1.90% before turning around to end with solid gains. The Dow rallied to close with a 2.83% gain, a 1400 point round-trip, while the S&P 500 was up over 3% before ending with a 2.60% gain. US500 3577. BLK (assets tumbled but earnings beat)+6.58%, BAC +6.13%, NFLX +5.27%, APPL +3.36%. US500 FUTS trades at 3706 now.
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*USOil – declined again on the CPI data & global recession worries into $85.51, before reversing sharply to $89.50 as USD weakened and risk aversion dipped.
*Gold – plunged to $1642 before recovering to trade at $1668 now but remains pressured.
*BTC – plummeted to $17.9K yesterday, trades at $19.8k now.
Today US Retail Sales, US University of Michigan Prelim Survey, Speeches from BOE’s Bailey, Fed’s George, Cook & Waller. Earnings from Wall Street banks JPM, Citi, MS Wells Fargo.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.96%) rallied from sub 81.20 lows yesterday to 83.75 highs today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 70.00, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.186, Daily ATR 3.201.
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 17th October 2022.
Market Update – October 17 – Tug-of-war!
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
*USDIndex – steady at 112.90 following US inflation which reinforced bets of a 90.9% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike, and a 9.1% chance of a 100 bp increase in the Fed’s next meeting. Yields down, 10-year Treasury rate is down -4.1 bp at 3.977% and the German Bund future has corrected -6.3 bp, after the JGB rate corrected -0.3 bp to 0.24%.
GBP – Sterling rallied to 1.1300 on calls for PM Truss to resign and ahead of UK Chancellor announcement for tax and spending measures, 2 weeks earlier than scheduled, as he tries to stem a loss of confidence in the government’s fiscal plans. Truss said on Friday that corporation tax will rise to 25% from April 2023 instead of remaining it at 19% as part of her government’s initial “mini-budget”. Medium-term fiscal plan remains as scheduled on Oct. 31.
Daily Mail reported that: “British lawmakers will try to oust Truss this week despite Downing Street’s warning that it could trigger a general election.”
EUR – slightly up to 0.9735.
JPY – pinned to 32-year (1990) highs at 148.79 as markets await signs of intervention from Japanese authorities.
Stocks – Stock markets have remained under pressure overnight, after a weak close on Wall Street Friday, after inflation concerns were rekindled by a US survey showing the first rise in inflation expectations in a while. Still, US futures are higher and with a nearly 1% rise in the NASDAQ leading the way.
China and Hong Kong stocks fell after Chinese President Xi talked up national security, while dashing hopes of any changes in growth-hitting zero-COVID policies and property sector curbs. Xi called for accelerating the building of a world-class military, while touting the fight against COVID-19 as he kicked off the Communist Party Congress on Sunday by focusing on security and reiterating policy priorities. Greater emphasis on national security comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The biggest applause came when Xi restated opposition to Taiwan independence.
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*USOil – holds support at $85.
*Gold – $1650.
*BTC – down for the day to $19214.
Today US Monthly Budget, BOC Outlook Survey. All eyes remain on UK though and the speech of Chancellor Hunt.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) UK100 (+0.23%) rallied at EU open to 6907 but pulled back asap. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line hold below 0, RSI 46 & falling, H1 ATR 19.84, Daily ATR 142.87.
[img]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/2022-10-17_10-22-26.jpg/img]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 18th October 2022.
Market Update – October 18 – Stocks Rally; Pound Climbs; Truss Sorry.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
*USDIndex gets softer, breaking 112.00 floor and currently at 111.70. Treasuries gained ground though pared the rally into the close, richened though underperformed Gilts and European bonds. Much of the impetus again came from across the Pond after new UK Chancellor Hunt confirmed a complete U-turn on the government’s fiscal plan. The bull steepener saw the curve at -44 bps from -48 bps Friday.
A weaker than expected Empire State index has added to beliefs the FOMC’s tightening is cutting into growth and will ultimately lower inflation, hence slowing rate hikes down the road.
*EUR – crossed 20-DMA and currently at 0.9850.
*JPY – at 149.10 for the first time since August 1990.
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*Stocks – US100 paced the surge, jumping 3.43%, while the US500 climbed 2.66%, back above Support level at 3700 (20-DMA), with the US30 up 1.86%. The UK100 was up as much as 1.47% before gains were trimmed to 0.90%. Bank of America’s Q3 earnings beat expectations, attributed to “resilient” US consumers (share price +6%). JPMorgan Chase reported smaller than expected drop in profits.
*USOil – holds support at $85 amid softer USD and as Russia cuts supplies to Europe. – A weaker USD makes oil cheaper for non-US buyers.
*Gold – $1660.
*BTC – extends some gains from yesterday to $19534.
*UK Chancellor Hunt announced overnight the scrapping of plans to cut income tax indefinitely & the plan to reduce the entry level tax will be shelved. Cuts to dividend tax rates and tourist VAT will be reversed as well. At the same time, the UK will shorten universal energy support to April 2023 and instead the government will look into more targeted support measures. Hunt warned that more difficult decisions are coming on spending in order to get finances under control and restore market trust in the UK economy. So far it has worked as the Gilt yield plunged 35 bps to 2.83%, the FTSE climbed to 6920, and Cable tested 1.1439 before dipping back to 1.1327 at the close.
*The BOE is likely to delay the sale of 838 billions pounds of government bonds to encourage greater stability in gilt markets following Britain’s failed “mini” budget, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.
Today US Monthly Budget and EU ZEW. Earnings: J&J, Lockheed Martin, Netflix, etc.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.27%) topped to 0.5700 after hotter-than-expected CPI data. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line extend northwards, RSI 71 but flattened. H1 ATR 0.00155, Daily ATR 0.0136.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 19th October 2022.
Market Update – October 19 – Inflation hasn’t disappeared.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
*USDIndex steady below 20-DMA at 112.20. Yields are rising and the rally in stocks is petering out, although ASX and Nikkei still managed to post modest gains and futures are up across Europe and the US. The 10-year Treasury rate has lifted 4.4 bp to 4.05% though and the Bund yield is up 1.1 bp at 2.3%.
*EUR – holds Tuesday’s gains at 0.9830.
*JPY – at 149.42 and eyeing the psychologically important 1.50 mark.
*GBP – slightly below 1.1300 again. UK inflation higher than expected at 10.1% in September, versus 9.9% in August and compared to consensus expectations for a 10.1% y/y reading. RPI, still an important indicator for wage negotiations, lifted to 12.6% from 12.3%. Numbers will add to the arguments in favor of at least a 75 bp hike from the BoE in November.
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*Stocks – Stocks surged at the open, rising over 2%, but closed with gains of 1.13% on the US30, 1.16% on the US500 (back over 3700), and 0.90% on the US100. Some decent earnings news and hopes for more of the same (Netflix beat in after-hours release) helped underpin.
*Netflix shares ticked up to the highest at $248.98 following results that beat consensus estimates: EPS: $3.10; Rev: $7.93B; Global Subscribers: +2.41 mil. The management ‘very optimistic’ regarding its new ad-supported plan. But later closed the day lower at $240.74.
*USOil – dropped -2.67% to $83.18 after the White House confirmed additional supply of 10 to 15 mln barrels will be released from the SPR and natgas tumbled -4.77% to $5.71, the lowest close since July 7.
*Gold – dropped to $1642.
Today EU HICP, BoC Inflation and US Housing Starts & Building permits.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD drifted to 1637. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line extend down, RSI 22 but flattened. H1 ATR 3.16, Daily ATR 26.11.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 20th October 2022.
Market Update – October 20 – 35th Anniversary Not Too Traumatic.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
*USDIndex rallies to 113 but currently steady. Yields jump near the highs of the session, and indeed multi-year peaks, with some impetus from higher than expected inflation out of the UK and Canada. Ongoing hawkish Fedspeak kept bond bears in control too. The break of 4.10% on the 10-year added to the selloff, as did a disappointing 20-year auction and a hefty corporate calendar.
*Supply is pressuring the stock market with a corporate issuance and a 20-year auction hitting today. Lockheed Martin has a 5-tranche sale slated, including 3-, 5-, 10-, 32-, and 41-year maturities. Diageo Capital has a 3-, 5-, and 10-year offering on the calendar. Procter & Gamble and Nestlé reported lower sales volumes.
*Stocks – Stocks closed in red as the US100, the tech heavy index, finished with a -0.85% loss, and the US500 was off -0.67%, with the US30 down -0.33%.
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*EUR – turns down to 20-DMA & below 0.9800.
*JPY – held below 150 as BOJ announces unscheduled bond buying as key yield broke ceiling ($667 million in government debt).
*GBP – under pressure at 1.1856. Britain’s interior minister Suella Braverman resigned criticising Liz Truss. This reflects the continued erosion of the PM’s authority after just weeks in the job. 1922 Committee meets today!
*USOil – climbed 3.55% to $85.76, ignoring the White House’s announcement of an additional 15 mln barrels of oil to be released from the SPR. Nat gas slumped another -5.24% to $5.44.
*Gold – extends lower! Currently at $1629 area.
Today EU Aug. current account, US Oct. Philly Fed index & Sep. existing homes. Earnings: Ericsson, ABB, Akzo Nobel, Nordea, Volvo, Danaher, Philip Morris, AT&T, Barclays etc.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURCHF spiked to 0.9840. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal bullishly crossed, RSI 69 & rising. H1 ATR 0.00087, Daily ATR 0.00641.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 24th October 2022.
Market Update – October 24 – Mixed China Data, Sterling Rallies, Yen Whipsaws.
https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/...ket-update.png
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
*USDIndex – Spiked down to 111.30 following more BOJ intervention as the JPY whipsawed and GBP rallied following the news that Boris Johnson will not run for PM again. USDIndex is now back to 112.00. Xi Jinping cemented power for a third 5-year term, Chinese data very mixed, GDP & Ind Production & Trade balance all big beats but Unemployment rises and Retail sales misses significantly. AUD & JPY Manu. PMI’s both missed. More Fedspeak over weekend shows signs that some may be looking to slow down rate hikes, possibly as early as the December meeting. Has cycle-high “Peak Dollar” been realised? Asian markets also very mixed following Chinese data, despite strong Wall Street close (Nikkei +0.51% Hang Seng -5.54%), European FUTS higher.
*EUR – rotated from 0.9700, lows on Friday to 0.9900 today as USD demand swung wildly.
*JPY – FT reported that BOJ bought $30 bln Yen on Friday as the pair hit 152.00, spiked to down to 146.00, before rallying to 149.50 again today and then further signs of BOJ action took the pair to 145.70 before once again recovering to 149.00 now.
*GBP – Sterling rallied from 1.1060 lows on Friday to close at 1.1300 and then rally to 1.1400 on open following Johnson news. Trades at 1.1360 now. A Sunak/Hunt combination the most acceptable to the markets, Gilts, Sterling and FTSE FUTS all higher.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied on Friday (+2.37-2.47%) and had its best week (+4.74- 5.22%) in 4 mths. SNAP tanked -28.08% on worst Earnings in 5-years as Advertisers cut back (Pintrest -6.4%, META -1.6%) Weak earnings too from AMEX -1.67% & Verizon -4.46%) US500 3752 (+2.37%) US500 FUTS trades at 3766 now. Biggest week ahead for Earnings.
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*USOil – from $83.00 lows on Friday to $85.51 highs today and now trades at $84.00.
*Gold – plunged to $1617 lows on Friday before recovering to $1670 peaks today and trades at $1654 now.
*BTC – plummeted to test $18.5K on Friday, spiked to $19.7k today before slipping back to $19.3k now.
Today EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, UK Conservative Party Leadership Election (Sunak likely new PM).
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Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+1.11%) Johnson will NOT run – Sterling rallied from sub 165.500 lows Friday and again today to 169.75 highs. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 57.50 & rising, H1 ATR 1.117, Daily ATR 3.005.
https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/...4_09-50-05.jpg
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 25th October 2022.
Market Update – October 25 – Stocks Higher, USD lower, Sunak new UK PM.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
*USDIndex – Tested down to 111.50 and remains below 112.00. PMI data was weak across the globe, falling further into contraction, this added to the sentiment that the FED may be able to cool aggressive interest hikes in December, lifting stocks (save Chinese tech companies) and weighing on yields. Riski Sunak, set to become new UK PM lifted, GBP, Gilts & UK100. Asian markets hit 2.5 year lows but recovered on back of positive Wall Street close (Nikkei +1.02% Hang Seng +0.5%), European FUTS also higher.
*EUR – rotated from 0.9800, lows yesterday back to 0.9900 today, trades at 0.9870 now ahead of ECB on Thursday.
*JPY – Friday and early Monday volatility cooled through the US & Asian sessions with the pair now pivoting at 148.85, again ahead of the BOJ rate announcement later this week.
*GBP – Sterling rotates around 1.1300 ahead of former UK Fin. Minister, Rishi Sunak, becoming the youngest UK PM in modern history and the first British Asian.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied again yesterday (+0.86-1.34%) SNAP recovered +7.09% after Fridays drumming, (Alibaba -12.4%, Tencent -14.6%, JD.com -13.02%) HSBC & UBS both beat expectations today. US500 3797 (+1.19%) US500 FUTS trades at 3810 now. Biggest week ahead for Earnings.
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*USOil – from $83.00 lows again yesterday to test $85.00 today, Oil markets remain prone volatile newsflow.
*Gold – rotates through $1650. Recent lows at $1620 remains support and $1665 resistance.
*BTC – $19.5K was tested again yesterday and remains resistance, with $19.2K support so far, this week.
Today German Ifo Survey, Australian Federal Budget, US Richmond Fed, BoE’s Pill. EARNINGS – Alphabet, Microsoft, GM, UPS, GE, Raytheon, Coca-Cola, 3M, Visa, and more.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.37%) Collapsed from 0.7880 to 0.7765 yesterday but has recovered to 0.7830 today, next resistance 0.7850. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 54.90 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00121, Daily ATR 0.00935.
https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/...5_09-04-47.jpg
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 26th October 2022.
Market Update – October 26 – More Bad News is Good News, USD Slips, Stocks Rise & Yields Cool.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
*USDIndex – Slumped to under 111.00 to 110.75. Weak Housing, the Richmond Manu. Index and Consumer Confidence, added to the outlook, initiated on Friday that rapid rate rises are beginning to have an impact and thus Fed funds futures continue to pare expectations for the terminal rate. From a 5.1% rate as soon as March early last week, implied rates have eased and are showing a 4.88% rate in May, 4.73% in September and hitting 4.50% by December.
*Stocks rallied (NASDAQ +2.25%) for a third consecutive day and weighing on yields but US10yr still holds over 4.0%. Rishi Sunak confirmed as new UK PM, lifting GBP, Gilts & UK100. MSFT & Alphabet both missed Earnings after hours. Asian markets hit 2.5 year lows again but remain positive. (Nikkei +0.80% Hang Seng 0.86%), European FUTS also higher. AUD CPI hit a 32-yr high at 7.3%.
*EUR – leaped over 100 pips from 0.9850, lows yesterday to 0.9978 now ahead of an expected 75 bp rate hike from the ECB on Thursday.
*JPY – Cooled from yesterday’s pivot at 148.85, through 148.00 to 147.85 now, again ahead of the BOJ rate announcement later this week.
*GBP – Sterling rallied strongly (over 230 pips) yesterday to test the key 1.1500 psychological level as Sunak became PM and ruthlessly implemented his own cabinet.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied again yesterday (+1.07-2.25%) SNAP a further +15.52% after Fridays drumming, TSLA +5.29% & TWTR +2.45%, (Musk said the deal to be done by Friday). MSFT & GOOGL both -6.75% after hours. US500 closed at 3859, FUTS trades at 3830 now.
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*USOil – from $83.00 lows again yesterday to test $85.50 after inventories showed draw downs, back to $84.70 now.
*Gold – dipped to $1640, yesterday before breaching $1660 to test $1665 resistance.
*BTC – rallied from $19.2k support to breach the important $20k to trade at $20.1k now.
Today EZ M3, US New Home Sales, BOC Announcement. EARNINGS – Meta, Boeing, BASF, Deutsche Bank (beat), Mercedes-Benz (profits significantly higher), Standard Chartered (beat) Barclays, and more.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.56%) Rallied from 0.6300 yesterday to 0.6435 now following surprise rise in AUD CPI, next resistance 0.6450. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 72.82, OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.00165, Daily ATR 0.01100.
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 27th October 2022.
Market Update – October 27 – USD Lower, BOC Surprise, META & Samsung Miss.
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
*USDIndex – Slumped to under 110.00 to 109.40. US new home sales dropped -10.9% in September, in line with expectations and BOC surprised markets with only a 50bp interest rate hike to 3.75%. Macklem had suggested more concern over risks from higher inflation following the rise in the latest CPI data. However, it will continue to tighten, sees terminal rate at 4.5%, there is still “excess demand,” in the economy and that a technical recession is just as likely as modest growth, cutting 2022 growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.5%, 2023 to 0.9% from 1.8%, and 2% in 2024 from 2.4%.
*Stocks sank (NASDAQ +2.25%) underperformed. Poor earnings and guidance from big tech (Google plunged -9%), and then Meta (-5.6%) missed and sank -20% after hours, wiping $67 billion off its market cap. Concerns over Apple and Amazon today. Asian markets rose initially but closed mixed. (Nikkei –0.32%, Hang Seng 1.60%), European FUTS also mixed. AUD imports prices 3 x higher than expected, but German GfK Consumer Climate not as bad as expected.
*EUR – leaped over parity 1.0000, land topped at 1.0093 earlier, now ahead of the ECB at 12:15 GMT.
*JPY – Cooled again, under 146.00 to 145.40 lows, ahead of the BOJ rate announcement later tomorrow. Friday’s pre-BOJ intervention peak took the pair to 152.00.
*GBP – Sterling rallied again (another 150+ pips) yesterday to test 1.1600 and trades to 1.1645 today. UK’s mid-term Fiscal statement was postponed from Monday to Nov. 17 as Gilts continue to recover with tax rises and spending cuts expected.
*Stocks – Wall Street were mixed with big moves for Tech stocks in particular. US500 closed -28.5 (-0.74%) at 3830, FUTS trades at 3850 now.
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*USOil – rallied from $84.35 lows again yesterday to test $88.40 after inventories showed draw downs, back to $87.60 now. IEA Oil Inventories – big build 2.588M vs 1.029M.
*Gold – weaker USD helped a rally to $1675, yesterday before moving back to $1662 now.
*BTC – rallied again to test $21.0k, back to $20.7k now and holding the important $20k.
Today ECB Announcement & President Lagarde’s PC, US Quarterly PCE Advance, GDP Advance and Durable Goods. EARNINGS – Amazon, Apple, Intel, Caterpillar, McDonalds, Gilead, AB InBev, Credit Suisse, (in-line), Deutsche Lufthansa, and more.
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Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.71%) Tank from over 170.00 yesterday to 168.80 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 28.05, OS but still falling, H1 ATR 0.299, Daily ATR 2.762.
https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/...7_09-54-56.jpg
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
